My first thought late last night on hearing the news of Chavez’s defeat in yesterday’s referendum was, “Great (and surprising)!”

My second thought was a more cynical one: “How bad must the defeat really have been for Chavez to announce he lost by two points?”

My third: “Why didn’t he just fix the results and say he won?”

My fourth: “I bet he’ll say this proves he’s a real democrat (lower case “d”), and not a dictator at all.”

And indeed, that latter thought has already come true:

Chavez said his respect for the outcome should vindicate his standing as a democrat.

“From this moment on, let’s be calm,” he declared. “There is no dictatorship here.”

Chavez is described as “humbled” by the defeat, saying his proposals may have been too “profound” and “intense.” I doubt that “humbled” is the correct word for what Chavez is feeling, just as “profound” and “intense” don’t quite cut it as a description of his proposals. My guess is that he is more humiliated than truly humbled, as I would also guess that the vote was a lot less close than announced.

I’ve read the news reports as well as roundups on those English-speaking blogs that have followed this very closely, notably Fausta and Daniel, and it’s clear that the Venezuelan people managed to throw at least a temporary monkey wrench into Chavez’s plans, handing him his first defeat in nine years. The trend had been for even those who had previously supported him to feel he was overreaching with this particular referendum that would pave the way for the entrenchment over time of the dictatorship he was already well on his way to building.

Will this stop him, or is it just a temporary roadblock? As a savvy commenter at Daniel’s succinctly writes:

This is NOT a huge step forward—as Daniel has said, the fact that this even came to a vote like it did was bad for Venezuela. It WAS the prevention of a very large step in a very wrong direction. That’s definitely good news, but Chavez has no less power than he did last week.

And of course it gives fuel to Chavez’s contention that his electoral process is fair; after all, he can point to his concession in this referendum. As Ed Morrisey points out, Chavez was, strangely enough, in a win-win situation:

…if he won the referendum, he’d get even more power thrust into his hands by popular acclaim, and if he lost, he’d prove himself a democrat, at least for now. The only way he could lose is if he claimed victory in a tight election, as everyone would have assumed he manipulated it.

Morrisey goes on to point out that Chavez’s policies have represented a long steady march towards dictatorship of the Fidel type. Those who are faithful to Fidel (pun intended) see that as a good thing; those who are not see it as a bad one.

Here’s some background to the dynamics of the election, and what might have been behind the late swing away from Chavez.

My tentative conclusions: (1) despite Chavez’s influence over Venezuela’s government and much of the electoral process (as the NY Times puts it, “…Mr. Ché¡vez and his supporters control nearly all of the levers of power”), this control is not yet absolute; (2) the true vote count was probably devastating enough that Chavez concluded he needed to abide by it for now; and (3) Chavez may try a less direct route to expanding his power in the near future.

Other observations: turnout was relatively low, surprising in such an important vote, unless you factor in fear of retaliation, and loss of enthusiasm in the ranks of Chavez supporters (I doubt his opponents lacked enthusiasm). Chavez didn’t seem to want much scrutiny in this referendum; he even failed to invite reliable “I-never-met-a-third-world-election-I-didn’t-like” Jimmy Carter to observe, as he did last time.

Interesting, also, that our own MSM hasn’t seen fit to headline articles on the Venezuelan referendum: “Bush opponent defeated in bid for dictatorship.” Since so many in the media framed the recent Australian election as a defeat for a Bush ally, and one wonders at the lack of symmetry.

Or perhaps one doesn’t.

Cynicism aside, this referendum result is a welcome development. The people of Venezuela have managed to use the elective process to put a halt to an attempt to undermine it. And—at least for the time being—Chavez has shown himself to be the populist he claims to be, and has respected their will.