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	<title>Comments on: Whither the polls?</title>
	<link>http://neoneocon.com/2008/01/11/whither-the-polls/</link>
	<description></description>
	<pubDate>Mon, 08 Sep 2008 06:58:07 +0000</pubDate>
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		<title>By: Brad</title>
		<link>http://neoneocon.com/2008/01/11/whither-the-polls/#comment-52805</link>
		<author>Brad</author>
		<pubDate>Fri, 11 Jan 2008 21:52:19 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid>http://neoneocon.com/2008/01/11/whither-the-polls/#comment-52805</guid>
					<description>It was unfortunetly predictable the the "Bradley effect"  thing would be brought up.  Anything to "prove" the "structurally racist" nature of the US.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>It was unfortunetly predictable the the &#8220;Bradley effect&#8221;  thing would be brought up.  Anything to &#8220;prove&#8221; the &#8220;structurally racist&#8221; nature of the US.</p>
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		<title>By: DC</title>
		<link>http://neoneocon.com/2008/01/11/whither-the-polls/#comment-52808</link>
		<author>DC</author>
		<pubDate>Fri, 11 Jan 2008 22:59:46 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid>http://neoneocon.com/2008/01/11/whither-the-polls/#comment-52808</guid>
					<description>Obama's Bolsters

Obama's bolsters lied to the pollsters and confounded the media spin.
For they were not sure in there own hearts whether they wanted to win.
It was only in the back of their minds what they'd think of his spiritual guide,
an evasive zealot  who seemed too much like a  Dr. Jekyll or a Mr. Hyde!

raving lunatic clip (The End of the Line)  

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HfNEfEBYIZs&#38;eurl=http://sweetness-light.com/archive/a-message-of-hate-from-obamas-pastor-via-youtube

xcript here

http://sweetness-light.com/archive/a-message-of-hate-from-obamas-pastor-via-youtube

rational but evasive clip (Hannity interview)

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=e8YmQUqj15g&#38;feature=related

from yesterday's Sweetness and Light:

"Though Wright and Obama do not often talk one-on-one often, the senator does check with his pastor before making any bold political moves."

http://sweetness-light.com/archive/obamas-mentor-gives-farrakhan-his-award

"Obama's connection to Wright first drew controversy in a February 2007 Rolling Stone article which described a speech in which Wright eloquently and forcefully spoke about racism against African-Americans.[4] Citing the article and fears that further controversy would harm the church, Obama scrapped plans of having Wright introduce him at his Presidential announcement"

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jeremiah_Wright#Relationship_with_Barack_Obama</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Obama&#8217;s Bolsters</p>
<p>Obama&#8217;s bolsters lied to the pollsters and confounded the media spin.<br />
For they were not sure in there own hearts whether they wanted to win.<br />
It was only in the back of their minds what they&#8217;d think of his spiritual guide,<br />
an evasive zealot  who seemed too much like a  Dr. Jekyll or a Mr. Hyde!</p>
<p>raving lunatic clip (The End of the Line)  </p>
<p><a href="http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HfNEfEBYIZs&amp;eurl=http://sweetness-light.com/archive/a-message-of-hate-from-obamas-pastor-via-youtube" rel="nofollow">http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HfNEfEBYIZs&amp;eurl=http://sweetness-light.com/archive/a-message-of-hate-from-obamas-pastor-via-youtube</a></p>
<p>xcript here</p>
<p><a href="http://sweetness-light.com/archive/a-message-of-hate-from-obamas-pastor-via-youtube" rel="nofollow">http://sweetness-light.com/archive/a-message-of-hate-from-obamas-pastor-via-youtube</a></p>
<p>rational but evasive clip (Hannity interview)</p>
<p><a href="http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=e8YmQUqj15g&amp;feature=related" rel="nofollow">http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=e8YmQUqj15g&amp;feature=related</a></p>
<p>from yesterday&#8217;s Sweetness and Light:</p>
<p>&#8220;Though Wright and Obama do not often talk one-on-one often, the senator does check with his pastor before making any bold political moves.&#8221;</p>
<p><a href="http://sweetness-light.com/archive/obamas-mentor-gives-farrakhan-his-award" rel="nofollow">http://sweetness-light.com/archive/obamas-mentor-gives-farrakhan-his-award</a></p>
<p>&#8220;Obama&#8217;s connection to Wright first drew controversy in a February 2007 Rolling Stone article which described a speech in which Wright eloquently and forcefully spoke about racism against African-Americans.[4] Citing the article and fears that further controversy would harm the church, Obama scrapped plans of having Wright introduce him at his Presidential announcement&#8221;</p>
<p><a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jeremiah_Wright#Relationship_with_Barack_Obama" rel="nofollow">http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jeremiah_Wright#Relationship_with_Barack_Obama</a></p>
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		<title>By: gcotharn</title>
		<link>http://neoneocon.com/2008/01/11/whither-the-polls/#comment-52812</link>
		<author>gcotharn</author>
		<pubDate>Sat, 12 Jan 2008 00:01:49 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid>http://neoneocon.com/2008/01/11/whither-the-polls/#comment-52812</guid>
					<description>Some will vote for a woman because 

1) it is  time for a woman in the White House
and 
2) the Presidency will benefit from a woman's touch
and
3) it is past time to deal a defeat to sexist men and sexist Conservatives.

Some will vote for Hillary because

A) they are part of a rational minority which is the only hope for America
and 
B) it's Hillary's turn, and therefore she deserves it.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Some will vote for a woman because </p>
<p>1) it is  time for a woman in the White House<br />
and<br />
2) the Presidency will benefit from a woman&#8217;s touch<br />
and<br />
3) it is past time to deal a defeat to sexist men and sexist Conservatives.</p>
<p>Some will vote for Hillary because</p>
<p>A) they are part of a rational minority which is the only hope for America<br />
and<br />
B) it&#8217;s Hillary&#8217;s turn, and therefore she deserves it.</p>
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		<title>By: strcpy</title>
		<link>http://neoneocon.com/2008/01/11/whither-the-polls/#comment-52815</link>
		<author>strcpy</author>
		<pubDate>Sat, 12 Jan 2008 01:30:27 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid>http://neoneocon.com/2008/01/11/whither-the-polls/#comment-52815</guid>
					<description>Polls are a statistic model of what the election will be - as such they are *not* the way one detects discrepancies. Is it unusual for them to be off that much in this way? Yes. Is it unheard of? No - in fact it isn't even close to being something worth studying. 

There are all sorts of reason - bad sampling is *really* easy even when done 100% honest. You will run into people not wanting to answer one way yet when in a private anonymous setting voting that way. And then of course you have all the other problems with intentional skewing (loaded questions and such).

Really, we are getting close to the point where many people are wanting the polls to elect somebody, not the actual election. If it wasn't Diebold it would be the hand counts (the electronic machine was done because of complaints about hand counting). If you can count the actuall whole population (and we do in this case) then they trump the statistical models as the models are only meant to approximate them. And "margin of error" doesn't mean what people think it means either - it is the margin of error from the full population that your sample represents which isn't necessarily the full population of what you are studying (for instance, you could - though highly unlikely - randomly select 10,000 people from all over the US and have all them make under 10k a year and be on govt assistance - you will *not* get a worthwhile number out of that even though you were not stacking the books intentionally).</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Polls are a statistic model of what the election will be - as such they are *not* the way one detects discrepancies. Is it unusual for them to be off that much in this way? Yes. Is it unheard of? No - in fact it isn&#8217;t even close to being something worth studying. </p>
<p>There are all sorts of reason - bad sampling is *really* easy even when done 100% honest. You will run into people not wanting to answer one way yet when in a private anonymous setting voting that way. And then of course you have all the other problems with intentional skewing (loaded questions and such).</p>
<p>Really, we are getting close to the point where many people are wanting the polls to elect somebody, not the actual election. If it wasn&#8217;t Diebold it would be the hand counts (the electronic machine was done because of complaints about hand counting). If you can count the actuall whole population (and we do in this case) then they trump the statistical models as the models are only meant to approximate them. And &#8220;margin of error&#8221; doesn&#8217;t mean what people think it means either - it is the margin of error from the full population that your sample represents which isn&#8217;t necessarily the full population of what you are studying (for instance, you could - though highly unlikely - randomly select 10,000 people from all over the US and have all them make under 10k a year and be on govt assistance - you will *not* get a worthwhile number out of that even though you were not stacking the books intentionally).</p>
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		<title>By: camojack</title>
		<link>http://neoneocon.com/2008/01/11/whither-the-polls/#comment-52828</link>
		<author>camojack</author>
		<pubDate>Sat, 12 Jan 2008 06:40:40 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid>http://neoneocon.com/2008/01/11/whither-the-polls/#comment-52828</guid>
					<description>Polls? 

The only ones that matter are in the polling place...</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Polls? </p>
<p>The only ones that matter are in the polling place&#8230;</p>
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		<title>By: Occam's Beard</title>
		<link>http://neoneocon.com/2008/01/11/whither-the-polls/#comment-52996</link>
		<author>Occam's Beard</author>
		<pubDate>Sun, 13 Jan 2008 16:47:36 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid>http://neoneocon.com/2008/01/11/whither-the-polls/#comment-52996</guid>
					<description>I'm fascinated by the psychology of those doubting the polls. They reject the actual event, which produces hard data in terms of vote count, and prefer to believe the flaky data generated by some guy with a clipboard asking a trifling percentage of the electorate chosen by God knows what method?

Perhaps neo could shed light on this. To me it seems like believing the fix was in to change the weather because yesterday's forecast was not borne out.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>I&#8217;m fascinated by the psychology of those doubting the polls. They reject the actual event, which produces hard data in terms of vote count, and prefer to believe the flaky data generated by some guy with a clipboard asking a trifling percentage of the electorate chosen by God knows what method?</p>
<p>Perhaps neo could shed light on this. To me it seems like believing the fix was in to change the weather because yesterday&#8217;s forecast was not borne out.</p>
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		<title>By: Occam's Beard</title>
		<link>http://neoneocon.com/2008/01/11/whither-the-polls/#comment-52997</link>
		<author>Occam's Beard</author>
		<pubDate>Sun, 13 Jan 2008 16:48:58 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid>http://neoneocon.com/2008/01/11/whither-the-polls/#comment-52997</guid>
					<description>I should clarify. Above "polls" referred to the election, not to pollsters' results. 

Sorry for the ambiguity.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>I should clarify. Above &#8220;polls&#8221; referred to the election, not to pollsters&#8217; results. </p>
<p>Sorry for the ambiguity.</p>
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		<title>By: Vince P</title>
		<link>http://neoneocon.com/2008/01/11/whither-the-polls/#comment-53005</link>
		<author>Vince P</author>
		<pubDate>Sun, 13 Jan 2008 17:48:04 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid>http://neoneocon.com/2008/01/11/whither-the-polls/#comment-53005</guid>
					<description>i think i said somewhere that I doubt the accuracy of polls.. to be clear, i meant the opinion or the pre-election polls.. not the actual votes on voting day.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>i think i said somewhere that I doubt the accuracy of polls.. to be clear, i meant the opinion or the pre-election polls.. not the actual votes on voting day.</p>
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