In leading polls of Democratic voters, Obama leads Hillary. And he also leads her in the only vote that counts, the delegates to the convention.
But take a look at recent Gallup polls for the general election. Right now McCain leads Obama, and for the last couple of weeks they’ve been exchanging the lead in a pattern that indicates the race between them would be close to a dead heat.
But Hillary has led McCain consistently and steadily for the month of May.
Here are the relevant charts:
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Previously a lifelong Democrat, born in New York and living in New England, surrounded by liberals on all sides, I've found myself slowly but surely 
May 28th, 2008 at 8:28 pm
This is why the swing voters are more important, vote-for-vote, than the base. A conservative who decides not to vote for McCain will probably abstain altogether. A swing voter who goes for McCain is one more vote for McCain and one less vote for Rodham Clinton–twice the value of the base vote, if the race is close.
The emphasis on swing votes began with Colonel Edward Mandel House, who ran Woodrow Wilson’s campaigns. If that name is not familiar to you, you should get your hands on Philip Bobbitt’s The Shield of Achilles and read the middle chapter: Colonel House and a World Made of Law.