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	<title>Comments on: I get it now: those Wall Street whiz kids were practicing alchemy</title>
	<atom:link href="http://neoneocon.com/2008/11/19/i-get-it-now-those-wall-street-whiz-kids-were-practicing-alchemy/feed/" rel="self" type="application/rss+xml" />
	<link>http://neoneocon.com/2008/11/19/i-get-it-now-those-wall-street-whiz-kids-were-practicing-alchemy/</link>
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		<title>By: neo-neocon</title>
		<link>http://neoneocon.com/2008/11/19/i-get-it-now-those-wall-street-whiz-kids-were-practicing-alchemy/#comment-93971</link>
		<dc:creator>neo-neocon</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Mon, 24 Nov 2008 19:00:21 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://neoneocon.com/2008/11/19/i-get-it-now-those-wall-street-whiz-kids-were-practicing-alchemy/#comment-93971</guid>
		<description>Hyman Rosen: the idea that people are responsible for global warming is in its infancy, relatively speaking.  There is plenty of room for new information to counter it, and some of that information is already there.  For Wegener it took decades.  The pace of scientific information gathering is greater now, but it can make it harder to sort out, and there is a certain amount of &quot;garbage in garbage out&quot; as well, because some of the data-gathering methods are suspect.  This is especially true with global warming, which is much more political than most areas of science and therefore there&#039;s much more room for bias, much of it unconscious but some of it conscious.

In addition, computer modeling is inherently flawed with complex systems such as climate.  There is no way that all variables can be included, and predictions be reliably made.  

That doesn&#039;t mean that energy conservation and searching for better energy sources shouldn&#039;t be undertaken.  But not in a spirit of panic and doomsday.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Hyman Rosen: the idea that people are responsible for global warming is in its infancy, relatively speaking.  There is plenty of room for new information to counter it, and some of that information is already there.  For Wegener it took decades.  The pace of scientific information gathering is greater now, but it can make it harder to sort out, and there is a certain amount of &#8220;garbage in garbage out&#8221; as well, because some of the data-gathering methods are suspect.  This is especially true with global warming, which is much more political than most areas of science and therefore there&#8217;s much more room for bias, much of it unconscious but some of it conscious.</p>
<p>In addition, computer modeling is inherently flawed with complex systems such as climate.  There is no way that all variables can be included, and predictions be reliably made.  </p>
<p>That doesn&#8217;t mean that energy conservation and searching for better energy sources shouldn&#8217;t be undertaken.  But not in a spirit of panic and doomsday.</p>
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		<title>By: sergey</title>
		<link>http://neoneocon.com/2008/11/19/i-get-it-now-those-wall-street-whiz-kids-were-practicing-alchemy/#comment-93957</link>
		<dc:creator>sergey</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Mon, 24 Nov 2008 12:21:56 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://neoneocon.com/2008/11/19/i-get-it-now-those-wall-street-whiz-kids-were-practicing-alchemy/#comment-93957</guid>
		<description>At this state of art of climate study we all preselect our &quot;theories&quot; (really, hypotheses) on the basis of our prejudices, that is, educated guesses; we have not a common, recognized criteria to do anything else. The field is too immature, the evidence is contradictory and inconclusive.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>At this state of art of climate study we all preselect our &#8220;theories&#8221; (really, hypotheses) on the basis of our prejudices, that is, educated guesses; we have not a common, recognized criteria to do anything else. The field is too immature, the evidence is contradictory and inconclusive.</p>
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		<title>By: sergey</title>
		<link>http://neoneocon.com/2008/11/19/i-get-it-now-those-wall-street-whiz-kids-were-practicing-alchemy/#comment-93956</link>
		<dc:creator>sergey</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Mon, 24 Nov 2008 12:10:14 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://neoneocon.com/2008/11/19/i-get-it-now-those-wall-street-whiz-kids-were-practicing-alchemy/#comment-93956</guid>
		<description>As a mathematician who had built and tested mathematical models of natural events for 25 years now, I have no such reverence for them as non-mathematicians usually have. Models are only research tools, not oracles that can predict future. No comprehensive theory of Earth climate now exists, and models should be subservient to theory, not other way round; and models are not enough to produce a theory. The only basis of AGW hypothesis are models, but they are so arbitrary that can prove nothing (because can predict everything).</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>As a mathematician who had built and tested mathematical models of natural events for 25 years now, I have no such reverence for them as non-mathematicians usually have. Models are only research tools, not oracles that can predict future. No comprehensive theory of Earth climate now exists, and models should be subservient to theory, not other way round; and models are not enough to produce a theory. The only basis of AGW hypothesis are models, but they are so arbitrary that can prove nothing (because can predict everything).</p>
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		<title>By: Hyman Rosen</title>
		<link>http://neoneocon.com/2008/11/19/i-get-it-now-those-wall-street-whiz-kids-were-practicing-alchemy/#comment-93946</link>
		<dc:creator>Hyman Rosen</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Mon, 24 Nov 2008 09:38:04 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://neoneocon.com/2008/11/19/i-get-it-now-those-wall-street-whiz-kids-were-practicing-alchemy/#comment-93946</guid>
		<description>Einstein wasn&#039;t generally ridiculed - some his theories were controversial, true, but it took only sixteen years from their first publication for him to receive the Nobel prize.

It took about five years for M&amp;W&#039;s gastritis theories to be somewhat accepted and used as a basis for treatment, and twelve for this to become scientific consensus.

Good work rises to the top. No one is going around suppressing geniuses. Ideas that contradict accepted theory have to earn their respect, that&#039;s all.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Einstein wasn&#8217;t generally ridiculed &#8211; some his theories were controversial, true, but it took only sixteen years from their first publication for him to receive the Nobel prize.</p>
<p>It took about five years for M&amp;W&#8217;s gastritis theories to be somewhat accepted and used as a basis for treatment, and twelve for this to become scientific consensus.</p>
<p>Good work rises to the top. No one is going around suppressing geniuses. Ideas that contradict accepted theory have to earn their respect, that&#8217;s all.</p>
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		<title>By: Hyman Rosen</title>
		<link>http://neoneocon.com/2008/11/19/i-get-it-now-those-wall-street-whiz-kids-were-practicing-alchemy/#comment-93945</link>
		<dc:creator>Hyman Rosen</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Mon, 24 Nov 2008 09:25:49 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://neoneocon.com/2008/11/19/i-get-it-now-those-wall-street-whiz-kids-were-practicing-alchemy/#comment-93945</guid>
		<description>Neo, the part of the Wikipedia entry about Wegener that you didn&#039;t quote was that while he found circumstantial evidence for continental drift, he couldn&#039;t come up with a valid theory to explain its mechanism (he did come up with an invalid one). Once a mechanism was worked out, his ideas were accepted.

It took about twelve years from the time Lister started his research for antisepsis to become widely accepted, and his techniques were being used much earlier than that.

That&#039;s the way science works. Bright young hypotheses grow up into solid evidence-based theories when they&#039;re right.

RealClimate does not ridicule McIntyre, they publish papers demonstrating that he is wrong, and that the hockeystick is real.

If you preselect the scientific theory you wish to believe based on your prejudices, you will inevitably be led into error. Just because you hate what liberals make of global warming doesn&#039;t mean it&#039;s false.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Neo, the part of the Wikipedia entry about Wegener that you didn&#8217;t quote was that while he found circumstantial evidence for continental drift, he couldn&#8217;t come up with a valid theory to explain its mechanism (he did come up with an invalid one). Once a mechanism was worked out, his ideas were accepted.</p>
<p>It took about twelve years from the time Lister started his research for antisepsis to become widely accepted, and his techniques were being used much earlier than that.</p>
<p>That&#8217;s the way science works. Bright young hypotheses grow up into solid evidence-based theories when they&#8217;re right.</p>
<p>RealClimate does not ridicule McIntyre, they publish papers demonstrating that he is wrong, and that the hockeystick is real.</p>
<p>If you preselect the scientific theory you wish to believe based on your prejudices, you will inevitably be led into error. Just because you hate what liberals make of global warming doesn&#8217;t mean it&#8217;s false.</p>
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		<title>By: Andy</title>
		<link>http://neoneocon.com/2008/11/19/i-get-it-now-those-wall-street-whiz-kids-were-practicing-alchemy/#comment-93912</link>
		<dc:creator>Andy</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Mon, 24 Nov 2008 00:43:22 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://neoneocon.com/2008/11/19/i-get-it-now-those-wall-street-whiz-kids-were-practicing-alchemy/#comment-93912</guid>
		<description>Sorry for the bad tag. I found your site from Ace&#039;s and obviously picked up my mad html tag closing skilz from him.

Hyman, there&#039;s also a statistician who the Realclimate guys continue to ridicule to this day even though he has been proven right. His name is Steve McIntyre (www.climateaudit.org), and he broke Michael Mann&#039;s hockeystick. Perhaps you&#039;ve heard of him. 

Answer Correct + Method Wrong = Bad Science. Mann, Gavin Schmidt and the rest of the Realclimate guys just don&#039;t have the intellectual honesty to admit it to themselves.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Sorry for the bad tag. I found your site from Ace&#8217;s and obviously picked up my mad html tag closing skilz from him.</p>
<p>Hyman, there&#8217;s also a statistician who the Realclimate guys continue to ridicule to this day even though he has been proven right. His name is Steve McIntyre (www.climateaudit.org), and he broke Michael Mann&#8217;s hockeystick. Perhaps you&#8217;ve heard of him. </p>
<p>Answer Correct + Method Wrong = Bad Science. Mann, Gavin Schmidt and the rest of the Realclimate guys just don&#8217;t have the intellectual honesty to admit it to themselves.</p>
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		<title>By: Andy</title>
		<link>http://neoneocon.com/2008/11/19/i-get-it-now-those-wall-street-whiz-kids-were-practicing-alchemy/#comment-93910</link>
		<dc:creator>Andy</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Mon, 24 Nov 2008 00:20:37 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://neoneocon.com/2008/11/19/i-get-it-now-those-wall-street-whiz-kids-were-practicing-alchemy/#comment-93910</guid>
		<description>&lt;i&gt;Please find me a scientist who was ridiculed by most other scientists for any length of time and then turned out to be right.&lt;/i&gt;

Marshall and Warren, who won the 2005 Nobel Prize in Medicine for proving the heretical theory that &lt;i&gt;H. pylori&lt;/i&gt;&lt;i&gt; caused ulcers come to mind.

As does an employee of the Swiss patent office named Einstein whose scientific papers were widely ridiculed for years by the scientific establishment until proven correct.&lt;/i&gt;</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p><i>Please find me a scientist who was ridiculed by most other scientists for any length of time and then turned out to be right.</i></p>
<p>Marshall and Warren, who won the 2005 Nobel Prize in Medicine for proving the heretical theory that <i>H. pylori</i><i> caused ulcers come to mind.</p>
<p>As does an employee of the Swiss patent office named Einstein whose scientific papers were widely ridiculed for years by the scientific establishment until proven correct.</i></p>
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		<title>By: neo-neocon</title>
		<link>http://neoneocon.com/2008/11/19/i-get-it-now-those-wall-street-whiz-kids-were-practicing-alchemy/#comment-93900</link>
		<dc:creator>neo-neocon</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Sun, 23 Nov 2008 21:57:25 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://neoneocon.com/2008/11/19/i-get-it-now-those-wall-street-whiz-kids-were-practicing-alchemy/#comment-93900</guid>
		<description>Hyman Rosen:  Find you a scientist who was ridiculed by most other scientists for any length of time and then turned out to be right?  Here&#039;s a more recent example than Galilieo, and one of my personal favorites, because I learned of his theory as a very young child (I was very interested in science even in my extreme youth) and &lt;i&gt;wanted&lt;/i&gt; it to be true.  But it was not accepted at the time.  And yet a few years later, I learned to my delight that it now was.  

&lt;a href=&quot;http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Alfred_Wegener&quot; rel=&quot;nofollow&quot;&gt;Here&lt;/a&gt; is the story (I may write a post about this):

&lt;i&gt;...while [Wegener&#039;s] ideas attracted a few early supporters such as Alexander Du Toit from South Africa and Arthur Holmes in England, the hypothesis was generally met with skepticism. The one American edition of Wegener&#039;s work, published in 1924, was received so poorly that the American Association of Petroleum Geologists organized a symposium specifically in opposition to the continental drift hypothesis. Also its opponents could, as did the Leipziger geologist Franz Kossmat, argue that the oceanic crust was too firm for the continents to &quot;simply plow through&quot;. In 1943 George Gaylord Simpson wrote a vehement attack on the theory (as well as the rival theory of sunken land bridges) and put forward his own permanantist views. Alexander du Toit wrote a rejoinder in the following year, but such was G.G.Simpson&#039;s influence that even in countries previously sympathetic towards continental drift, like Australia, Wegener&#039;s hypotheis fell out of favour.

In the early 1950s, the new science of paleomagnetism pioneered at Cambridge University by S. K. Runcorn and at Imperial College by P.M.S. Blackett was soon throwing up data in favour of Wegener&#039;s theory. By early 1953 samples taken from India showed that the country had previously been in the Southern hemisphere as predicted by Wegener. By 1959, the theory had enough supporting data that minds were starting to change, particularly in the United Kingdom where, in 1964, the Royal Society held a symposium on the subject.&lt;/i&gt;

There is also Lister, as well as many of the early pioneers of germ theory, vaccination, and anesthesia. 

As I said, I may do some research on this and write a post.  Those are just the ones that quickly come to mind.  There are many more, I believe, but I don&#039;t have time to look them up right now.

I have some time on science discussion boards where some very agile scientific minds debate the human-generated theory of global warming, as well as the extent of global warming itself.  I have been impressed by the quality of the arguments on &lt;i&gt;both&lt;/i&gt; sides.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Hyman Rosen:  Find you a scientist who was ridiculed by most other scientists for any length of time and then turned out to be right?  Here&#8217;s a more recent example than Galilieo, and one of my personal favorites, because I learned of his theory as a very young child (I was very interested in science even in my extreme youth) and <i>wanted</i> it to be true.  But it was not accepted at the time.  And yet a few years later, I learned to my delight that it now was.  </p>
<p><a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Alfred_Wegener" rel="nofollow">Here</a> is the story (I may write a post about this):</p>
<p><i>&#8230;while [Wegener's] ideas attracted a few early supporters such as Alexander Du Toit from South Africa and Arthur Holmes in England, the hypothesis was generally met with skepticism. The one American edition of Wegener&#8217;s work, published in 1924, was received so poorly that the American Association of Petroleum Geologists organized a symposium specifically in opposition to the continental drift hypothesis. Also its opponents could, as did the Leipziger geologist Franz Kossmat, argue that the oceanic crust was too firm for the continents to &#8220;simply plow through&#8221;. In 1943 George Gaylord Simpson wrote a vehement attack on the theory (as well as the rival theory of sunken land bridges) and put forward his own permanantist views. Alexander du Toit wrote a rejoinder in the following year, but such was G.G.Simpson&#8217;s influence that even in countries previously sympathetic towards continental drift, like Australia, Wegener&#8217;s hypotheis fell out of favour.</p>
<p>In the early 1950s, the new science of paleomagnetism pioneered at Cambridge University by S. K. Runcorn and at Imperial College by P.M.S. Blackett was soon throwing up data in favour of Wegener&#8217;s theory. By early 1953 samples taken from India showed that the country had previously been in the Southern hemisphere as predicted by Wegener. By 1959, the theory had enough supporting data that minds were starting to change, particularly in the United Kingdom where, in 1964, the Royal Society held a symposium on the subject.</i></p>
<p>There is also Lister, as well as many of the early pioneers of germ theory, vaccination, and anesthesia. </p>
<p>As I said, I may do some research on this and write a post.  Those are just the ones that quickly come to mind.  There are many more, I believe, but I don&#8217;t have time to look them up right now.</p>
<p>I have some time on science discussion boards where some very agile scientific minds debate the human-generated theory of global warming, as well as the extent of global warming itself.  I have been impressed by the quality of the arguments on <i>both</i> sides.</p>
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		<title>By: Hyman Rosen</title>
		<link>http://neoneocon.com/2008/11/19/i-get-it-now-those-wall-street-whiz-kids-were-practicing-alchemy/#comment-93891</link>
		<dc:creator>Hyman Rosen</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Sun, 23 Nov 2008 20:27:32 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://neoneocon.com/2008/11/19/i-get-it-now-those-wall-street-whiz-kids-were-practicing-alchemy/#comment-93891</guid>
		<description>The laughed at Galileo, but they also laughed at Bozo the Clown (Carl Sagan). Galileo and a handful of others are remembered precisely because worldview-changing paradigms are so rare. For every Galileo there are thousands of cranks. Please find me a scientist who was ridiculed by most other scientists for any length of time and then turned out to be right. Countervailing conspiracy theories of how lone voices are suppressed is the simple fact that overturning some established principle is a guaranteed way to a Nobel prize and is a cherished dream of all scientists.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>The laughed at Galileo, but they also laughed at Bozo the Clown (Carl Sagan). Galileo and a handful of others are remembered precisely because worldview-changing paradigms are so rare. For every Galileo there are thousands of cranks. Please find me a scientist who was ridiculed by most other scientists for any length of time and then turned out to be right. Countervailing conspiracy theories of how lone voices are suppressed is the simple fact that overturning some established principle is a guaranteed way to a Nobel prize and is a cherished dream of all scientists.</p>
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		<title>By: br549</title>
		<link>http://neoneocon.com/2008/11/19/i-get-it-now-those-wall-street-whiz-kids-were-practicing-alchemy/#comment-93860</link>
		<dc:creator>br549</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Sun, 23 Nov 2008 13:34:19 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://neoneocon.com/2008/11/19/i-get-it-now-those-wall-street-whiz-kids-were-practicing-alchemy/#comment-93860</guid>
		<description>I have come up with a new idea for central air conditioning in the home. Rather than have the unit remove heat (and by default, moisture) from the air inside the home - which evidently doesn&#039;t really work, we just all &quot;think&quot; it does - I wish to develop a system that removes only CO2.  We should at least then, be able to reduce, if not eliminate, warming inside the home and commercial buildings. I believe if I can push it hard enough, long enough, I should be able to line up a league of investors.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>I have come up with a new idea for central air conditioning in the home. Rather than have the unit remove heat (and by default, moisture) from the air inside the home &#8211; which evidently doesn&#8217;t really work, we just all &#8220;think&#8221; it does &#8211; I wish to develop a system that removes only CO2.  We should at least then, be able to reduce, if not eliminate, warming inside the home and commercial buildings. I believe if I can push it hard enough, long enough, I should be able to line up a league of investors.</p>
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