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	<title>Comments on: Cimategate: cherry-picking the data</title>
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		<title>By: Kevin P</title>
		<link>http://neoneocon.com/2009/12/17/cimategate-cherry-picking-the-data/#comment-140502</link>
		<dc:creator>Kevin P</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Mon, 11 Jan 2010 12:24:57 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://neoneocon.com/2009/12/17/cimategate-cherry-picking-the-data/#comment-140502</guid>
		<description>oops sorry
 forgot to unbold it after the title - I wasn&#039;t trying to shout!
KP</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>oops sorry<br />
 forgot to unbold it after the title &#8211; I wasn&#8217;t trying to shout!<br />
KP</p>
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		<title>By: Kevin P</title>
		<link>http://neoneocon.com/2009/12/17/cimategate-cherry-picking-the-data/#comment-140501</link>
		<dc:creator>Kevin P</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Mon, 11 Jan 2010 12:23:49 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://neoneocon.com/2009/12/17/cimategate-cherry-picking-the-data/#comment-140501</guid>
		<description>I&#039;m a freelance writer/consultant working in the area of technology and business in all its forms. I see the arguments over climate change getting very polarised and partisan (&#039;If Al Gore/Sarah Palin thinks X I&#039;ll believe Y&#039;). I&#039;ve tried to see whether there are areas of consensus that most people would agree on.

This is my take on 
&lt;b&gt;10 Points about Global Warming that Most People could Agree with&lt;/b&gt;&lt;b&gt;

1. Carbon Dioxide absorbs heat from solar radiation. The physics of that has been pretty clear for about 100 years, thanks to Arrhenius and others.

2. Humans are burning a lot of hydrocarbon fuels that have increased the amount of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere.

3. You would expect the heat absorbed by the extra carbon dioxide has to go somewhere.

4. Our global climate and weather should be affected by the extra heat - there is more energy driving the fronts and cyclones around. You&#039;d expect some impact on eco-systems, an increased likelihood of extreme weather events, and some movement of humans and other species to new habitats (including tropical diseases occurring in temperate regions)

5. You can&#039;t make any useful conclusions about the changes in global climate from individual episodes of good/bad weather - weather is a chaotic system, which means tiny changes in the starting conditions have huge changes in the final weather outcome. Indeed, chaos maths was first discovered by a meteorologist.

6. Carbon dioxide is clearly not the only thing driving changes in global climate - there are solar variations, Milankovitch cycles etc. In particular we don&#039;t know nearly enough about the role of methane as a greenhouse gas, and the impact of aerosols in mitigating the greenhouse effect.

7. The fuss/controversy about the &#039;hockey stick&#039; graph and the East Anglia data set/&#039;climate-gate&#039; are confusing to most of us. The climate scientists seem to be trying to measure subtle changes in global average temperature (against a background of much larger daily and seasonal changes).  However, changes in average temperature don&#039;t kill you - its the possible increase of extreme events that&#039;s damaging. Its a problem if a 1 in 300 year flood actually happens every 25 years.

8. At some point we will have to move to a renewable non-fossil fuel economy so it makes sense to invest in these technologies. Given the sources of much of the world&#039;s oil and gas (We&#039;ve all helped to make Chavez, Bin Laden, and Putin rich and/or powerful men by consuming large amounts of fossil fuel) there are probably good political reasons for doing so.

9. The cost of converting large quantities of the world&#039;s power supply to renewables/nuclear could be huge (the International Energy Authority are talking about a trillion dollars a year for the next thirty years!), but its not dissimilar to the amounts Governments are spending/talking about spending to reflate the world economy out of the current recession/depression.

10. Although a lot of attention is focused on the impact of transport (from SUV&#039;s to air travel), actually the biggest source of greenhouse gases is the heating lighting and air-conditioning of buildings (about 40% in the UK for instance). Reducing the carbon footprint of buildings can usually be achieved by decreasing their energy consumption - in other words it can save you money to reduce your emissions. There are lots of easy gains here - there is typically a 500% difference in energy consumption between the best and worst office buildings for example. So it makes sense to &#039;turn the lights off when you go home&#039;.

Do I have biases? Well I have sufficient technical background to understand some of the climate science but I&#039;m not a practicing researcher in the area - I come from a physics chemistry background not climatology.
I am an ex-employee and current shareholder in a major oil company.

Comments welcome!&lt;/b&gt;</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>I&#8217;m a freelance writer/consultant working in the area of technology and business in all its forms. I see the arguments over climate change getting very polarised and partisan (&#8216;If Al Gore/Sarah Palin thinks X I&#8217;ll believe Y&#8217;). I&#8217;ve tried to see whether there are areas of consensus that most people would agree on.</p>
<p>This is my take on<br />
<b>10 Points about Global Warming that Most People could Agree with</b><b></p>
<p>1. Carbon Dioxide absorbs heat from solar radiation. The physics of that has been pretty clear for about 100 years, thanks to Arrhenius and others.</p>
<p>2. Humans are burning a lot of hydrocarbon fuels that have increased the amount of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere.</p>
<p>3. You would expect the heat absorbed by the extra carbon dioxide has to go somewhere.</p>
<p>4. Our global climate and weather should be affected by the extra heat &#8211; there is more energy driving the fronts and cyclones around. You&#8217;d expect some impact on eco-systems, an increased likelihood of extreme weather events, and some movement of humans and other species to new habitats (including tropical diseases occurring in temperate regions)</p>
<p>5. You can&#8217;t make any useful conclusions about the changes in global climate from individual episodes of good/bad weather &#8211; weather is a chaotic system, which means tiny changes in the starting conditions have huge changes in the final weather outcome. Indeed, chaos maths was first discovered by a meteorologist.</p>
<p>6. Carbon dioxide is clearly not the only thing driving changes in global climate &#8211; there are solar variations, Milankovitch cycles etc. In particular we don&#8217;t know nearly enough about the role of methane as a greenhouse gas, and the impact of aerosols in mitigating the greenhouse effect.</p>
<p>7. The fuss/controversy about the &#8216;hockey stick&#8217; graph and the East Anglia data set/&#8217;climate-gate&#8217; are confusing to most of us. The climate scientists seem to be trying to measure subtle changes in global average temperature (against a background of much larger daily and seasonal changes).  However, changes in average temperature don&#8217;t kill you &#8211; its the possible increase of extreme events that&#8217;s damaging. Its a problem if a 1 in 300 year flood actually happens every 25 years.</p>
<p>8. At some point we will have to move to a renewable non-fossil fuel economy so it makes sense to invest in these technologies. Given the sources of much of the world&#8217;s oil and gas (We&#8217;ve all helped to make Chavez, Bin Laden, and Putin rich and/or powerful men by consuming large amounts of fossil fuel) there are probably good political reasons for doing so.</p>
<p>9. The cost of converting large quantities of the world&#8217;s power supply to renewables/nuclear could be huge (the International Energy Authority are talking about a trillion dollars a year for the next thirty years!), but its not dissimilar to the amounts Governments are spending/talking about spending to reflate the world economy out of the current recession/depression.</p>
<p>10. Although a lot of attention is focused on the impact of transport (from SUV&#8217;s to air travel), actually the biggest source of greenhouse gases is the heating lighting and air-conditioning of buildings (about 40% in the UK for instance). Reducing the carbon footprint of buildings can usually be achieved by decreasing their energy consumption &#8211; in other words it can save you money to reduce your emissions. There are lots of easy gains here &#8211; there is typically a 500% difference in energy consumption between the best and worst office buildings for example. So it makes sense to &#8216;turn the lights off when you go home&#8217;.</p>
<p>Do I have biases? Well I have sufficient technical background to understand some of the climate science but I&#8217;m not a practicing researcher in the area &#8211; I come from a physics chemistry background not climatology.<br />
I am an ex-employee and current shareholder in a major oil company.</p>
<p>Comments welcome!</b></p>
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		<title>By: huxley</title>
		<link>http://neoneocon.com/2009/12/17/cimategate-cherry-picking-the-data/#comment-137735</link>
		<dc:creator>huxley</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Fri, 18 Dec 2009 19:49:51 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://neoneocon.com/2009/12/17/cimategate-cherry-picking-the-data/#comment-137735</guid>
		<description>&lt;i&gt;Will doubt reach critical mass among the general population at some point?&lt;/i&gt; 

Even before Climategate &lt;a href=&quot;http://people-press.org/report/556/global-warming&quot; rel=&quot;nofollow&quot;&gt;doubt became the majority American opinion&lt;/a&gt;.

With Climategate and the palpably colder weather, such doubt will only increase.

Plus it&#039;s one thing to say how much a problem AGW is; it&#039;s quite another to approve taxes and regulations that cripple the nation&#039;s economy and send billions of dollars yearly to other countries.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p><i>Will doubt reach critical mass among the general population at some point?</i> </p>
<p>Even before Climategate <a href="http://people-press.org/report/556/global-warming" rel="nofollow">doubt became the majority American opinion</a>.</p>
<p>With Climategate and the palpably colder weather, such doubt will only increase.</p>
<p>Plus it&#8217;s one thing to say how much a problem AGW is; it&#8217;s quite another to approve taxes and regulations that cripple the nation&#8217;s economy and send billions of dollars yearly to other countries.</p>
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		<title>By: Steve G</title>
		<link>http://neoneocon.com/2009/12/17/cimategate-cherry-picking-the-data/#comment-137713</link>
		<dc:creator>Steve G</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Fri, 18 Dec 2009 16:40:54 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://neoneocon.com/2009/12/17/cimategate-cherry-picking-the-data/#comment-137713</guid>
		<description>The emails also revealed that the data has been mishandled from the beginning, with much fudging going on to &quot;prove&quot; global warming.  In fact, there was only one programmer in the beginning of this process and the program he created did not segregate the data from the program but incorporated it.  So, there was no way to extract the data to demonstrate how the program worked.  Imagine if the word processing program you used incorporated all of your correspondence as you wrote to others but could not be extracted as separate files.  And, there was no independent reliability analysis ever done to demonstrate that the program could do what it was created and intended to do.  A second programmer, brought in to replace the first (for whatever reason), could not figure out what the program did and added notes to the software indicating that, in order to obtain the results desired by the IPCC, random numbers had to be added at this place and that, so that is what he did.

So, there is this one massive program that contains data that is integral to its operation and temperature information is coming in from Russia, from tree rings in Africa,from stations in countries around the world, and who knows from where else.  And this information is being massaged somehow and run in the program (where it seemingly disappears).  Does the program take into account the season, the time of day, the weather that day, surrounding conditions that might influence the accuracy of the data, the relative accuracy of the method (how accurate is a tree ring in determining the actual temperature 500 years ago and is that &quot;reading&quot; comparable to a thermometer reading?), and so on and so on...?  In fact, this is GIGO (garbage in, garbage out) on a massive scale.  It is this lack of scientific and programming integrity that can and will be used to overturn the EPA&#039;s finding that carbon dioxide is causing &quot;climate change&quot;.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>The emails also revealed that the data has been mishandled from the beginning, with much fudging going on to &#8220;prove&#8221; global warming.  In fact, there was only one programmer in the beginning of this process and the program he created did not segregate the data from the program but incorporated it.  So, there was no way to extract the data to demonstrate how the program worked.  Imagine if the word processing program you used incorporated all of your correspondence as you wrote to others but could not be extracted as separate files.  And, there was no independent reliability analysis ever done to demonstrate that the program could do what it was created and intended to do.  A second programmer, brought in to replace the first (for whatever reason), could not figure out what the program did and added notes to the software indicating that, in order to obtain the results desired by the IPCC, random numbers had to be added at this place and that, so that is what he did.</p>
<p>So, there is this one massive program that contains data that is integral to its operation and temperature information is coming in from Russia, from tree rings in Africa,from stations in countries around the world, and who knows from where else.  And this information is being massaged somehow and run in the program (where it seemingly disappears).  Does the program take into account the season, the time of day, the weather that day, surrounding conditions that might influence the accuracy of the data, the relative accuracy of the method (how accurate is a tree ring in determining the actual temperature 500 years ago and is that &#8220;reading&#8221; comparable to a thermometer reading?), and so on and so on&#8230;?  In fact, this is GIGO (garbage in, garbage out) on a massive scale.  It is this lack of scientific and programming integrity that can and will be used to overturn the EPA&#8217;s finding that carbon dioxide is causing &#8220;climate change&#8221;.</p>
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		<title>By: See Your Kelvin and Raise You a Celsius</title>
		<link>http://neoneocon.com/2009/12/17/cimategate-cherry-picking-the-data/#comment-137696</link>
		<dc:creator>See Your Kelvin and Raise You a Celsius</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Fri, 18 Dec 2009 12:31:34 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://neoneocon.com/2009/12/17/cimategate-cherry-picking-the-data/#comment-137696</guid>
		<description>[...] Read Neo’s whole thing. It’s worth it. But watch her! She’s tricky. And speak­ing of tricky … [...]</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>[...] Read Neo’s whole thing. It’s worth it. But watch her! She’s tricky. And speak­ing of tricky … [...]</p>
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		<title>By: J.J. formerly Jimmy J.</title>
		<link>http://neoneocon.com/2009/12/17/cimategate-cherry-picking-the-data/#comment-137678</link>
		<dc:creator>J.J. formerly Jimmy J.</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Fri, 18 Dec 2009 04:16:07 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://neoneocon.com/2009/12/17/cimategate-cherry-picking-the-data/#comment-137678</guid>
		<description>betsy and Occam,
I&#039;m so going to use your comments [with proper attribution, of course. ;-)] to press the issue with my friends.  Pure gold! Thanks.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>betsy and Occam,<br />
I&#8217;m so going to use your comments [with proper attribution, of course. <img src='http://neoneocon.com/wp-includes/images/smilies/icon_wink.gif' alt=';-)' class='wp-smiley' /> ] to press the issue with my friends.  Pure gold! Thanks.</p>
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		<title>By: Jim Sullivan</title>
		<link>http://neoneocon.com/2009/12/17/cimategate-cherry-picking-the-data/#comment-137670</link>
		<dc:creator>Jim Sullivan</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Fri, 18 Dec 2009 03:16:36 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://neoneocon.com/2009/12/17/cimategate-cherry-picking-the-data/#comment-137670</guid>
		<description>betsy and Occam,

Those are terrific comments and deserve to be more widely read. 

And betsy, the same lesson about what is and is not science was hammered home to me years back by a geologist specializing in plate tectonics. He also taught an astronomy 101 class just for kicks. I learned more about science from him in my first week of class than all of the K through 12 years. Good stuff.

For what its worth, when explaining the significance of the CRU hack, I like to use the analogy of a judge who has been found to be corrupt. Every single case the judge presided over must be reviewed with a fine tooth comb. All those poor clerks, paralegals and lawstudents going through a mountain of ominous white cardboard file folder boxes checking for evidence of malfeasance. Not fun but oh so necessary.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>betsy and Occam,</p>
<p>Those are terrific comments and deserve to be more widely read. </p>
<p>And betsy, the same lesson about what is and is not science was hammered home to me years back by a geologist specializing in plate tectonics. He also taught an astronomy 101 class just for kicks. I learned more about science from him in my first week of class than all of the K through 12 years. Good stuff.</p>
<p>For what its worth, when explaining the significance of the CRU hack, I like to use the analogy of a judge who has been found to be corrupt. Every single case the judge presided over must be reviewed with a fine tooth comb. All those poor clerks, paralegals and lawstudents going through a mountain of ominous white cardboard file folder boxes checking for evidence of malfeasance. Not fun but oh so necessary.</p>
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		<title>By: Baklava</title>
		<link>http://neoneocon.com/2009/12/17/cimategate-cherry-picking-the-data/#comment-137664</link>
		<dc:creator>Baklava</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Fri, 18 Dec 2009 02:21:56 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://neoneocon.com/2009/12/17/cimategate-cherry-picking-the-data/#comment-137664</guid>
		<description>oh my 

http://blogs.news.com.au/heraldsun/andrewbolt/index.php/heraldsun/comments/putting_our_economy_in_the_hands_of_chavez_fans</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>oh my </p>
<p><a href="http://blogs.news.com.au/heraldsun/andrewbolt/index.php/heraldsun/comments/putting_our_economy_in_the_hands_of_chavez_fans" rel="nofollow">http://blogs.news.com.au/heraldsun/andrewbolt/index.php/heraldsun/comments/putting_our_economy_in_the_hands_of_chavez_fans</a></p>
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		<title>By: Occam's Beard</title>
		<link>http://neoneocon.com/2009/12/17/cimategate-cherry-picking-the-data/#comment-137651</link>
		<dc:creator>Occam's Beard</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Fri, 18 Dec 2009 01:11:42 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://neoneocon.com/2009/12/17/cimategate-cherry-picking-the-data/#comment-137651</guid>
		<description>Oops.

That should have read:

&lt;i&gt;Excellent&lt;/i&gt; post, betsy.

Models are not data. This obvious yet essential point seems to escape many. A model produces what it’s programmed to produce. &lt;i&gt;Jurassic Park&lt;/i&gt; wasn’t a documentary, after all.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Oops.</p>
<p>That should have read:</p>
<p><i>Excellent</i> post, betsy.</p>
<p>Models are not data. This obvious yet essential point seems to escape many. A model produces what it’s programmed to produce. <i>Jurassic Park</i> wasn’t a documentary, after all.</p>
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		<title>By: Occam's Beard</title>
		<link>http://neoneocon.com/2009/12/17/cimategate-cherry-picking-the-data/#comment-137650</link>
		<dc:creator>Occam's Beard</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Fri, 18 Dec 2009 01:10:41 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://neoneocon.com/2009/12/17/cimategate-cherry-picking-the-data/#comment-137650</guid>
		<description>&lt;i&gt; post, betsy.

Models are not data. This obvious yet essential point seems to escape many. A model produces what it&#039;s programmed to produce. &lt;/i&gt;&lt;i&gt;Jurassic Park&lt;/i&gt; wasn&#039;t a documentary, after all.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p><i> post, betsy.</p>
<p>Models are not data. This obvious yet essential point seems to escape many. A model produces what it&#8217;s programmed to produce. </i><i>Jurassic Park</i> wasn&#8217;t a documentary, after all.</p>
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