Yesterday I wrote about the wide disparity in poll results for next week’s special election to fill Ted Kennedy’s Massachusetts Senate seat. I wanted to add this link, which attempts to explain some of the differences between the polls, as well as this one. The gist of both is that the Globe poll, which found Coakley ahead by so much, under-sampled Independents and also reported them as far more pro-Coakley than any other poll has indicated.

What’s more important than any poll, however, is the fact that polls are not going to tell us much in this particular race. First of all, it is exceptionally fast-moving; Scott Brown was practically unknown a couple of weeks ago and now he’s “gone viral.” Weather will matter. Motivation will matter even more; all indications are that Brown’s supporters are far more driven than Coakley’s, but will it be enough? And then there’s the little issue of election fraud and machine politics.

If Brown loses but still makes a good showing, it will have national repercussions on other Democrats who will be running for office soon; it might focus their minds a bit more, as does a hanging. I want Brown to win, of course. I think it’s an uphill battle, but possible. But I make no other predictions, except that Tuesday, January 19, should be “interesting.”