Pennsylvania 12 special election
So, is Burns’ defeat in the Pennsylvania 12 special election a debacle for Republicans? Does it mean their prospects are much poorer than previously thought for 2010?
To read the press and bloggers on the left, one might think so. And there’s no doubt the result was a disappointment to conservatives and Republicans. But I fail to see how a Democratic victory in a low-turnout special election that pulled in mostly Democratic voters (due to being coupled with an important Democratic senatorial primary) in a hugely Democratic district that had elected Democrat John Murtha to this office since 1974 is a big surprise.
The Scott Brown victory caused enormously high expectations that such a thing could (and would) keep happening. But that was always an unreasonable assumption. The Pennsylvania 12 special election is a wake-up call that should not even have been needed, saying that 2010 is going to be hard fought and difficult, and requires a fire in the belly, intelligence, and resolve. Nothing should be taken for granted.
Obama and the Democrats are still, to my way of thinking, surprisingly and undeservedly popular. Old habits die hard (and a mind is a difficult thing to change). That should go without saying. But I’m saying it anyway.
[ADDENDUM: More from Ace.]
“Obama and the Democrats are still, to my way of thinking, surprisingly and undeservedly popular. Old habits die hard (and a mind is a difficult thing to change). That should go without saying. But I’m saying it anyway.”
Yes, especially when the “changing of one’s mind” involves the public consumption of eating a rather large dish of ‘crow’…with its implicit admission that one’s world-view was skewed enough, that correcting one’s now admitted ‘mistake’ (voting for Obama and the democrats) now requires aligning with the ‘evil’ Republicans.
It’s not an easy transition for anyone who bases their vote upon more than their current whim and is a difficult ‘meal’ and ‘chore’ indeed, as you neo and I and, many others have personally experienced.
Last night FOX reported that Obama’s approval is down to 45%, that is another reduction and, every further reduction represents those who reluctantly withdraw their support.
He’s not at the ‘tipping point’ but there’s little doubt, in my judgment, that coming events and the radical agenda he continues to promote, will lead to a seemingly sudden collapse in those numbers, his own actions will assure it.
Having been to Johnstown in the past (and enjoyed the flood museum greatly) I can state that this is as rust belt as they come. Much of small city PA is filled with the ruins of steel, coal and other heavy manufacturing industries. Nothing has replaced them either with the same level of employment. These are also heavy union leaning areas that tend to blame the losses on free trade. The Murthas of the world know how to get the vote in these areas. You get pork for the district. Not only is it seen as helping the economy, but it feeds the payback thoughts of much of the public. Somehow this money was owed to them from the richer people and areas of the country.
Republicans cannot sell reducing government spending in an area that has become a cargo cult of spending. They can sell honest gov’t contracting (you know somebody’s relations get all the contracts even if you love port), promotion of industries that are currently neglected such as steel, coal and others, and other rebalancing of Federal policies towards the non-college educated people.
That a congressman can do nothing about a Blue states economic shortcomings compared to the southern states is not as important as responding to local needs in a conservative way.
The three things that are noteworthy:
1. Critz ran as a conservative, opposing HCR, cap & trade, abortion, and big bailouts, while favoring tax cuts to get the economy going.
2. Critz won by 8% in a district that has a 2-1 registered Democrat advantage. He should have won by 20+%.
3. This is a district heavily dependent on someone bringing ABSCAM Jack’s bacon home. Going with Critz, who was a member of Murtha’s staff, at least gives the impression that the bacon will keep coming.
“Obama and the Democrats are still, to my way of thinking, surprisingly and undeservedly popular. Old habits die hard (and a mind is a difficult thing to change). That should go without saying. But I’m saying it anyway.”
I just returned from a cruise on which many of the passengers were from the eastern seaboard. (Florida, North & South Carolina, Pennsylvania, Virginia, and New York) We dined with different people each evening and it was an education. Most people regurgitate the dem/MSM talking points as easily as Chris Mathews. It made me realize that, though the conservative blogosphere, talk radio, and Fox news are gaining adherents, most of the east coast is till a liberal echo chamber. Beating the dems in 2010 is not going to be a walk in the park.
I’m donating money, time, and e-mail campaigns to conservative candidiates. We have to get involved if we want to see change.
Old habits die hard. The interesting thing is that Obama and Pelosi are not popular in this area, that is why Critz did his best to sound like a Republican. This is one of those districts where people vote Democrat in local elections, and Republican in national elections. That way they have their bases covered.
Some radio news idiot made it sound like this was a real Republican district, or at best, a blue-dog Democrat district, and therefore, this election really showed that the Republicans ain’t got a snowball’s chance…
A) Did he forget they elected Murtha for an eternity in this district? and B) Did he ever look at a map of the district? Talk about GERRYMANDERED! This district was carved out to keep SOMEONE in office for an eternity…
Good job, Neo-neocon, on commenting!
It’s tough to see a vicious unindicted co-conspirator seemingly vindicated but as you say there was the Specter-Sestak primary the same day that had the entire political establishment on both sides and the Tea Party worked up and just sucked in Democrats
(gosh! I like that image) and so probably isn’t indicative of much other than how easy it to get all het up over the implications of a one-shot deal.
Having been thus reassured that the landscape hasn’t really changed Mr. Critz will proceed to act in a manner which will, in November, reassure us that it has.
J.J. I had an interesting experience the opposite of yours last summer. Some parents of USCG academy cadets were having supper and it turned into an anti-Obama hatefest. We all blew our cool talking about the guy. I had similar conversations in Virginia and Nebraska. The spontaneous generation of the Tea Party movement indicates sanity is only partially dead in the US.
On the other hand there is Ft. Collins, CO; a place where there are four places to buy Tibetan goods in a three block area. The Ob is worshiped down there. Moral; there are large segments of the land who see thru Obama, but there are others to whom reality is quaint and unnecessary impediment to enjoying life, as in those one is likely to find on a cruise ship. Considering Ob will very likely allow the Iranians to get the bomb..you can fill the rest.
Another observation, I used to read a lot of classical Greek history and I would marvel at the stupid decisions made by democratic peoples. Now I can only marvel at the stupidity of the 2008 electorate. This generation has earned the title the worse generation.
“Obama and the Democrats are still, to my way of thinking, surprisingly and undeservedly popular. Old habits die hard (and a mind is a difficult thing to change). That should go without saying. But I’m saying it anyway.”
We still have the MSM filter problem.
Also, Burns had an uphill fight (2 to 1 democrat to republican) and had a bad strategy (run against Pelosi in a depressed district). The democrat pulled out the old chestnuts about jobs and protectionism… and with that many democrats (who buy that stuff) and no effort to explain why that does not work… well.. the results are to be expected.
I agree with Geoffrey.
Admitting, even to oneself, making major errors is difficult.
It would be difficult to postulate somebody who keeps mouthing his or her erroneous nonsense, while voting rationally.
I talked a week ago with a supporter of Obamacare and pointed out that a number of older docs are going to go Galt, on account of future work will bring them inadequate compensation. Might as well retire.
“See, they’re greedy,” she said. I said she’d called them a name, but how was she going to get them to show up for work.
No answer. Not that it struck her as a valid question. It was a question whose answer was obvious, so she had to simply ignore it.
With her views, no imaginable catastrophe could cause her to change her mind.
She voted to be with the Right Sort, reality be damned, and she’ll never change her mind.
Obviously, many Democrats are going run as conservatives this Fall. The question is whether they will vote as conservatives if the Republicans win the election and bring forth a Repeal the health care bill.
James.
They’ll run as conservatives.
As my kids used to say, “psyyyyyych!”.
They’ll vote as Pelosi tells them.
J.J. formerly Jimmy J. Says:
May 19th, 2010 at 4:18 pm
Bob from Virginia Says:
May 19th, 2010 at 6:58 pm
Reading both of your comments, I had the thought that maybe many people who are still going on cruises now are oblivious or in denial about the economic Armageddon that is approaching. They’re spending their money and enjoying life as if the good times will go on forever, while more conservative people are hunkering down, stocking up on necessities, and otherwise saving their money.
DirtyJobsGUy Says:
May 19th, 2010 at 3:43 pm
DirtyJobsGUy nails it better than any other commenter or commentator I have seen. If you have ever lived or worked around that part of western PA, you would understand the peculiar mentality of the area, and understand how deeply resistant to change and critical assessment the folks there are.
There simply is not a free trade, incentive economics constituency there. Tim Burns was a local guy, but he violated the code by striking it rich in business. That put him in the category of the distrusted bosses.
Follow the narrative in the Flood Museum and you will see the resentments are long-standing.
““Obama and the Democrats are still, to my way of thinking, surprisingly and undeservedly popular.””
I believe the frenzied pace of this administrations transgressions adds to this lag in public acknowledgement of something being terribly wrong. When reality gets this far fetched, people just can’t initially accept it and look to people to tell them it isn’t happening.
I concur with Richard Aubrey above. There are no conservative Democrats. It’s entirely a feint. Look at Stupak: pure posturing. They will do the bidding of the Democrat leadership of Obama, Pelosi and Reid.
This was just a prelude. The real election is in November. Unless Critz does something to back up his anti-Obama rhetoric, Burns can use that against him leading up to November.
Having said that, the district is one of the most gerrymandered districts in the US. The chances of a Republican winning there are slim to none. After all, Murtha called his constituents dumb hicks and they still re-elected him.
rickl said,
“They’re spending their money and enjoying life as if the good times will go on forever, while more conservative people are hunkering down, stocking up on necessities, and otherwise saving their money.”
I have been through WWII, Vietnam, Jimmy Carter, the oil embargoes, the 1980s Savings and Loan crash, the bankruptcy of my old employer that resulted in the loss of my healthcare coverage, my pension being taken over by the PBGC (with a haircut) and the recent economic difficulties. I can’t tell you how many times it has looked like the end of the world. Yet, we are still here. (Over 77 years I have learned one thing -not to bet against the USA.) I don’t minimize the damage that Obama and friends are doing to our economy. However, if I postponed enjoying myself and spending a little money every time things looked bleak in the past, I would be sitting in a locked room, counting my money, and expecting the worst. To what end? None of us lives forever and we can’t take our money with us.
Many people are cruising now because the cruise lines have lowered their prices drastically. If you have ever wanted to take a cruise now is bargain time. Not that the bargains might not get better in the next few months.
JJ: What you’re saying about cruise prices is deflation. Housing continues downward as another deflationary phenom. Deflation is the truly scariest economic prospect. I do not know enough about monetary policy, but wonder if the Fed can reflate without literally giving money away.
@ DirtyJobsGUy 3:43 pm Much of small city PA is filled with the ruins of steel, coal and other heavy manufacturing industries. I live practically surrounded by these ruins. The Allenport Steel Mill, for instance, is about a mile down the river.
http://www.allbusiness.com/labor-employment/human-resources-personnel-management/12614386-1.html
I had it in my head to write about this environment in my Burns article, but I ran out of time and inspiration.
Here’s one thing that I haven’t seen written about anywhere else. Burns did better yesterday than the other recent Republican nominees for PA-12 (2002: 26.5%, 2004: none, 2006: 39.2%, 2008: 42.2%, 2010: 45.1%) and Critz did considerably worse than Murtha had done (2002: 73.5%, 2004: 100%, 2006: 60.8%, 2008: 57.9%, 2010: 52.6%). Even Murtha was on a downward trend, which continued yesterday. (Also, there was a third nominee this time, a Libertarian who got 2.3%, most of which, I should think, would not have gone to Critz had the Libertarian not been on the ballot.)
James Says:
“Obviously, many Democrats are going run as conservatives this Fall.”
It was another natural advantage to the dem in this election; that they had not been in office for last couple years / this was their first run.
Others are going to have a harder slog to push that stuff…
rickl Says:
” Armageddon that is approaching. They’re spending their money and enjoying life as if the good times will go on forever, while more conservative people are hunkering down, stocking up on necessities, and otherwise saving their money.”
There are some cruising tricks to getting really cheap tickets. It can be a very inexpensive way to vacation / the way to go when you want a vacation and are hunkering down….
Tom Says:
“I do not know enough about monetary policy, but wonder if the Fed can reflate without literally giving money away.”
People dumping money usually requires no help to turn around… into inflation.
J.J. formerly Jimmy J. you make a good point. I seemed to weather the end of the world from 73 thru 82 better when i was just too young to give a crap about such trivial things as armaggedon. I need to recapture some of that wisdom from my youth.
We’re nowhere clear of the trees yet, that’s for certain. All the rah-rah-rah is quite premature. It’s going to take determined, focused candidates with money backing them to stand up to what are basically professional protesters and agitators. Being from Massachusetts originally, I was inspired (but not shocked as some were) by Brown’s election, and some of the more recent moves. Dealing with a shape-shifter like ob and his crew can be very, very tricky. Let his numbers continue to slide, and we may see a very different (acting) President in the near future. The bottom line is the image in the mirror and how this will be remembered (correctly or otherwise, hint;Texas book war) in the future. Style over substance.
I think we need to forget about converting the clueless. It is enough if we get them to vote none of the above by staying home. I think a lot of young Obama fans may be inclined this way because hope and change is so yesterday and the oceans are still rising. And keep in mind Wright’s assertion that he was thrown under the bus by Obama. Ask the question “who’s next?” and you might get a few people to sleep in on election day.
Bitter Pennsylvanians, still clinging.
Such excellent commenters. You host a great salon, neo. I was developing a list as I read down of people I wanted to acknowledge as having made important observation, but others clearly had the same idea.
First – no one begrudges you your cruise, JJ. Have another. But there are sectors of the economy that are somewhat insulated, which don’t feel the pinch personally for quite a while in a down economy, and such would likely be over-represented (though not universal) among cruise-goers.
The article’s closing – that traditional Dems might not switch votes but just not vote, is a wise caution. I hope that local Tea Partiers take especial note in those districts. DirtyJobsGuy’s assessment of the area is on point, and should keep us all alert. Yes, it is a single district, with its own idiosyncracies – but every district is a single district, not reflecting national opinion trends entirely. If we can’t preach small government but we can preach honest government, start there. And barely anyone is arguing for bigger government at this point, even among those who have generally approved of what the government has done since 2006. Even Bobo’s are wondering whether we’ve jumped the shark.
Well, except in DC, of course. They are still ravenous.
If you have cruise-mates, NoCal relatives, arts & humanities-employed acquaintances or the like, you might have to ratchet down and just shake your head solemnly saying “These are all good things, but I have to wonder if it’s just too much. We may regret this down the road.” That may strike a chord even among the Blue Believers.
Avi, How about “It’s not turning out the way I hoped”?
AVI is right, J.J. I don’t begrudge you or anyone else for taking a cruise. I was merely trying to come up with an explanation for why you encountered so many moonbats and Obama supporters on your cruise. I’m sorry if I wasn’t clearer about that.
rickl, No offense taken. It was on a Holland America ship, which caters to a more elderly crowd. “The gray of head and almost dead” are their clientele. Most of the libs are probably well heeled or at least have secure government pensions. And most of the libs were easterners. We met a couple from Denver that we enjoyed great political and social compatibility with. However, the libs seemed in the majority.
My typical strategy when dealing with these people is to ask them questions that I know they will have a hard time answering. Such as, “How much is Obamacre cutting out of Medicare Advantage to help pay for other insurance needs?” If they can answer that then I know we can have a discussion – otherwise, they will just repeat talking points like, “We’re the only industrial nation without socialized medicine.”
The Arizona immigration law was a major issue for a lot of them. How dare we ask people who have broken a law to identify themselves? My question was, “What would happen to you if you broke a law in Mexico and were stopped by the Mexican gendarmes?” That allowed them to at least consider if this was such a draconian law. But some were still outraged.
My opinion remains that we have a fight on our hands if we want to elect more fiscal conservatives in November.
Heh. I should also note that these milder comments are what I think others should do. I tend to play a little rougher.
My new one, only tried twice, has been “If we wanted an expensive insoluble problem to tackle that helped the actual poor, we should have chosen homelessness. The poor already had health insurance. Obamacare is about eliminating feelings of insecurity in the middle class, not helping the poor.” I haven’t got the phrasing down the way I’d like it, but on one occasion, it was actually the most liberal person who looked startled and was clearly prompted to actually think.
“We’re the only industrial nation without socialized medicine.”
We need to start reminding people that AMERICA WAS FOUNDED to be the ALTERNATIVE to the REST OF THE WORLD.
And the rest of the world needs an alternative as much now as it did 200+ years ago.
ELC, I would follow up the quote you cited with something like, “and all those countries have problems or limitations in their systems. I am upset because congress just dumped a law on us without explaining how our system would not repeat the mistakes of others. I would like to know that they had spent more time on considering longer term ramifications of the law than in arm-twisting legislators. We are all grown-ups and know that hard choices have to be made, so why aren’t they treating us like grown-ups?”
ELC, Yes, and I always remind the sloganeers that none of them have a national defense worthy of the name because they have put their money in social programs and have relied on us to defend them. All over the free world peaceful, decent people sleep well at night because they know the USA has a bunch of rough men and high tech weapons standing at the ready.