You may notice that I haven’t done any posts on how many seats the Republicans will gain next week. And I don’t plan to, either.
That’s because it’s not my thing. There are plenty of articles all around the MSM and in the blogosphere that do just that, though. If you want to read predictions, just start scrolling down at Ace’s; RealClearPolitics has lots on its left and right sidebars as well as this; and Jay Cost opines here.
I don’t like to speculate on numbers at all. I think the Republicans will make large gains, but exactly how large is anybody’s guess.
That’s right: guess. All elections hinge on turnout, but this year turnout is far more of an unknown than usual. What we do know is the following:
(1) Republicans and Independents are more highly motivated than Democrats. This will favor Republicans.
(2) Fraud is occurring, and it will favor Democrats.
(3) The tendency is anti-incumbent.
(4) The unknown factor of weather will also tend to favor the more highly motivated, which we already know is Republicans.
I’ve been saying for quite some time that this is one of the most important elections I can ever remember, certainly one of the most (if not the most) important midterm elections. This means that—despite the glowing prognostications of huge Republican victories—as the big day approaches, I am getting very nervous.
It’s one thing to read predictions and even to look forward to something fervently, which I most definitely am. It’s another to know that very soon it will happen and we will know the results. Till then, Schrodinger’s cat is both dead and alive, and we won’t learn which until very late next Tuesday night, when we open that box.
[NOTE: To all you physicists out there: yes, I know it's not the most perfect metaphor. But I like it.]