October 27th, 2010

Election predictions

You may notice that I haven’t done any posts on how many seats the Republicans will gain next week. And I don’t plan to, either.

That’s because it’s not my thing. There are plenty of articles all around the MSM and in the blogosphere that do just that, though. If you want to read predictions, just start scrolling down at Ace’s; RealClearPolitics has lots on its left and right sidebars as well as this; and Jay Cost opines here.

I don’t like to speculate on numbers at all. I think the Republicans will make large gains, but exactly how large is anybody’s guess.

That’s right: guess. All elections hinge on turnout, but this year turnout is far more of an unknown than usual. What we do know is the following:

(1) Republicans and Independents are more highly motivated than Democrats. This will favor Republicans.

(2) Fraud is occurring, and it will favor Democrats.

(3) The tendency is anti-incumbent.

(4) The unknown factor of weather will also tend to favor the more highly motivated, which we already know is Republicans.

I’ve been saying for quite some time that this is one of the most important elections I can ever remember, certainly one of the most (if not the most) important midterm elections. This means that—despite the glowing prognostications of huge Republican victories—as the big day approaches, I am getting very nervous.

It’s one thing to read predictions and even to look forward to something fervently, which I most definitely am. It’s another to know that very soon it will happen and we will know the results. Till then, Schrodinger’s cat is both dead and alive, and we won’t learn which until very late next Tuesday night, when we open that box.

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[NOTE: To all you physicists out there: yes, I know it's not the most perfect metaphor. But I like it.]

55 Responses to “Election predictions”

  1. LAG Says:

    The Washington Times reports that an Irish bookie is paying off his bets early on the House outcome. This calls for a wee nip of the Jameson’s (all Republicans should band together so this is no time for Bushmills).

    http://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2010/oct/27/bookie-says-gop-cant-lose-house-pays-bets-early/

  2. Adrian Day Says:

    Fraud is occurring, and it will favor Democrats.

    This is the one reality in politcal landscape that troubles me more deeply than anyother. There are many areas of dishonesty among Democrats many of which are the result of subscribing to party dogma at all costs or simple denial. But to gain victory or advantage by deliberate fraud is the most troubling of all. It does happen in other areas of course such as skewing interpretation of the constitution. But nothing strikes at the heart of our process or is more sacred than the right to vote. It is the greatest and most shameful abuse of all.

    Of course many of these politicians have based their entire career on fraud (Obama, Harry Reid). It’s a way of life. And lying falls in tandem with that out of sheer necessity.

  3. Jamie Irons Says:

    Neo,

    Ah, you allude to the celebrated “quantum measurement problem…”

    This is an issue which never ceases to fascinate me, and only recently have I had the spare time, and mathematical background, to really begin to understand it.

    But of course, as Feynman famously said, “I think it is safe to say that no one understands Quantum Mechanics…”

    Let alone elections.

    ;-)

    Jamie Irons

  4. Promethea Says:

    I hope that individual tea partiers have been thinking about the issue of fraud. If it is serious, actions MUST be taken. I don’t know what actions. That will be subject to discussion.

    Subotai Bahadur (Oct 25 on nicedoggie.net) has a terrific essay on strategic steps that need to be taken to get control of the U.S. government from the communists/socialists/statists that threaten us. It’s definitely worth reading.

    I love this writer, who used to comment on Belmont Club, because he thinks strategically, as we all need to do.

  5. Mr. Frank Says:

    I always pray for rain or snow on election day. It suppresses the welfare class vote.

  6. Oldflyer Says:

    Thank you Neo. I am long since satiated with polls, predictions and prognostication, expert or otherwise.

    To paraphrase a famous philosopher: (sic)” I can see November from my house; and it is blessedly near.”

  7. texexec Says:

    A good place for predictions can be found at http://www.intrade.com . It’s where people put up good money behind their predictions.

    It’s highly accurate. I remember that every state’s electoral count was called by intrade in the 2004 presidential election (while Kerry was still wondering where he’d dock his yacht so it would be convenient to the White House and where he wouldn’t have to pay any taxes on it).

  8. Tom Says:

    Democrats REQUIRE fraud, especially but not exclusively election fraud. It is to them as the ears on the donkey.
    It is so accepted a feature of Democrats that even the opposition accepts it as a given. Holder’s non-pross of the NBPP is feebly complained about. Does anyone seriously doubt the Clinton-Holder pardon of Marc Rich was non-fraudulent?
    Nothing meaningful is ever done to fix it, nothing.

  9. texexec Says:

    …oh…and when John Edwards was trying to figure out how he’d be able to slip his mistress into the vice-president’s mansion without her being seen while his wife was going to radiation treatments.

  10. Sergey Says:

    On fine points of quantum mechanics I need to consult my wife, who actually did her diploma on this subject (with excellent grade), while I did mine on rocket science (with not so good result). But as I understand, this methaphor with quantum measurment problem is quite accurate: untill actual measurment is done, we can think about the state of affairs as a superposition of many different outcomes, and the only measurment that counts is election itself. So we really need to open this ballot box to see what is there within.

  11. rickl Says:

    So we really need to open this ballot box to see what is there within.

    I just hope the Democrats don’t leave dead cats in the ballot boxes.

    Though it would make detecting fraud easier.

  12. expat Says:

    Since this thread has a science bent, here’s something new (via Jawa Report):

    http://www.latimes.com/news/nationworld/nation/sc-dc-1028-court-execution-20101027,0,6859358.story

    It seems like Obama’s new justices need volunteers for a double blind study to test drug efficacy. I have to remember that all the crazies are not in Europe.

  13. Curtis Says:

    I don’t think fraud is going to be as much a problem as many think. There is an army of poll watchers; Democrats are so dispirited as to try much; much was accomplished by the exposure of ACORN; the ranks are spread thin by so much unexpected challenge; the union schemes are well known and observed; and Soros’ secretary of state program good for only state senator elections.

    (I did not use an “-’s” on “Soros” because it was followed by a word that begins in “-s.”)

  14. kaba Says:

    I had asked in an earlier thread what the October Surprise would be in this cycle. I think the October Surprise will really be the amount of fraud and voter intimidation we’ll see in the next week. More than any time in recent years the dems have had their hands on the levers of power at all levels. This gives them the opportunity. Further, the Holder Justice Department has turned a blind eye to obvious cases of fraud and intimidation.

    We’ve already had indications of fraud in Nevada, Harris County, Texas, and North Carolina. Does anyone doubt that these are just the tip of the iceberg?

  15. Tom Says:

    Yeah- and it’s been a real bitch of a job getting absentee ballots to our overseas troops. The fraudsters just couldn’t get around to it in time. “Unexpected” problems, my *ss.

  16. rickl Says:

    Tom: There aren’t enough of them to go around, after the illegal aliens get theirs.

  17. Baklava Says:

    http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20101027/ap_on_go_pr_wh/us_obama_campaigning_8

    Why can’t the president appeal to ALL Americans?

    According to the Yahoo story – he’s calling into radio stations with large black audiences….

    Hello??????

  18. Marine's Mom Says:

    My stomach has been in knots for days.

  19. kaba Says:

    Same here Marine’s Mom. I’m actually finding it difficult to sleep at night because of my concern for this election. I find myself checking the Real Clear Politics site several times per day to see if there have been any dramatic changes in the predictions.

    There must be something else that I can and should do at this moment but can’t really think what that might be. I live in a safely Republican district. I have made targeted donations to several races that my study indicates might be helpful. But I am not rich and therefore am limited in this regard. I suppose prayer is probably as helpful as anything right now.

  20. Curtis Says:

    All that’s going to happen is THE BIGGEST POLITICAL EVENT IN DECADES!

    O’Donnell is going to poll close and may even win!

    Bielat may “unseat” Barney Frank!

    Boxer IS going to get knocked out!

    And the “rebellion” will only increase as a lame duck Congress and an even lamer Obummer rule by decree and corruption.

  21. Bob from Virginia Says:

    Kaba I know how you feel. The irony is non-stop, an off year election shaping up to be the most important election in US history because of a slick grifter who had no business coming within miles of the Presidency. What a sad statement about the last, best hope for mankind.

    On the subject of election fraud; I’m originally from Chicago and therefore I am surprised anyone thinks the Republicans have a chance in the Illinois Senate race. Unless the Repubs win big, which is unlikely, the Cook County Democratic machine has already decided that election.

  22. Curtis Says:

    http://americanmajorityaction.org/voterfraudapp/

    An app to download to defeat fraud. See redstate.com

    Excerpt:

    Using the geo-tagging features available in today’s smart phones, the Voter Fraud application anonymously transmits the coordinates of each report to the VoterFraudApp.com website, making it easy to map areas of abuse in real-time across the country. The application will work with the VoterFraudApp.com website to overlay these reports on a nationwide map throughout Election Day. For the first time ever, elections officials will have the ability to track and respond to complaints as they occur. In addition, the website will house a web-based form so voters may submit reports from their desktops if they do not own a compatible mobile device.

  23. Mike Mc. Says:

    Possible good sign as we get uner a week: the predicted number of Repub gains in the House is going up into the 60 range.

    I heard Pat Caddell on Hannity today. He said things might break even more for Repubs by election day because people will be asking themselves if they really want more of the past two years after next Tuesday.

    Obama has nationalized this election by being out there campaigning for weeks now. So it’s not about local issues and personalities. How many people will ask themselves if they want more of whatwe now have; and also answer – yes? If they answer ‘yes’, they Will vote for the Dem. It’s hard for me to imagine there are any such people.

  24. SteveH Says:

    We need creative and agressive vote fraud sting operations. Take the immoral down no matter what party.

  25. Artfldgr Says:

    I LOVE suppositional states..

    in fact its the problem i cant get the phd to understand

    even worse, in order for him to understand what i am trying to bring to him in genetics/genomics are the difference in math and computations based on when a value is substantiated.

    he has no idea that some of the math behind genetics and how it solves problems has to do with avoiding substantiation of variables so as to avoid the system being pinned to an invalid quantifier.

    and i have been desperately trying to show him alternative organizational methods that yield the same product, but operate differently having no preferred position, no ordered substantiation, and all kinds of things that are more in the world of network science and systems analysis.

    i have solved some really hard things and have methods that can get him answers. but alas, when things are new, its almost impossible to get people to ‘get it’. they think that they would see and jump on something, but the truth is, that everything that would be something great, no one sees until AFTER its substantiated.

    voting systems are really very interesting things, and note that the American system being one of the most interesting in how it did allow maximum parity (until tweeked).

    nice things about voting systems is that you can simulate them statistically with monte carlo inputs and you can also play games with the numbers and tease out the abstract differences.

    I am not an EE but I CAN tell you that hobby people on DIY and EE forums could have done a better more secure system of honest voting than what was created by any of these companies (one i nearly worked for).

    a system that required no inks…
    a system that could not be hacked
    a system that was a hybrid of low tech and interface to higher tech. and so on.

    one… they could have made a board with LEDs that you place your voting paper over… you then operate the voting page, and led lights light up what your doing. these units wiring and all are in a solid block of clear Lucite.

    when done, the voter puts the same voting slip in another slot, and a laser burns holes for a record (no ink).

    information is recorded and xmitted in several ways.
    one, a laser marked tape, resembling old keypunch tape… a memory card, with several versions encrypted… a wii link to a remote secure site.

    these files HAVE to match..
    there is no way to put new software in the electronics in the lucite, and so there is no way to reprogram them. their job is to collect the votes, save them, and encrypt them several ways with internal keys.

    the wii records and the memory records have to align.

    low tech. cheap, can work with new computers as they are made… cheap on supplies. secure…

    [there is more too it, but i am long enough as it is]

    talk more high physics concepts (especially abstractions that link up things)!!! yay..

    its what i have loved and worked at since i was very young, ergo Bx Science… :)

  26. Mike Mc. Says:

    If the vote fraud continues much longer, there will be a general and probably violent rebellion.

    Vote fraud, even the Dems secretly creating and asupporting bogus 3rd party candidates, fnudamentally undermines our suystem at its core.

    At some point, the implicit social contract that makes 95% of daily life run on automatic, breaks down. The laws built on that basic trust no longer apply, in reality. Peopole are under no, zero, none, nada moral obligation to adhere top the social contract when it is undermined in such a way, if it is.

    Dems are playing an extre3mely, extremely, mega-serious dangerous game when they vote fraud – as they usually do. There is a limit. Heads will roll, literally, if they cross the line.

  27. Artfldgr Says:

    maybe this will be used to help votes in the future?

    Researchers find a ‘liberal gene’
    http://www.physorg.com/print207417040.html

    [when the liberal gets wacked and changes, what happens to the gene? methelation? correction? suppression? conservative microRNA?]

  28. physicsguy Says:

    Neo–

    I think it’s a perfect metaphor. High five to you, and to Occam’s Beard when he stops by.

    :-)

    OT: around my neck of the woods, all the Dems in their ads, sgins, etc. talk about how they will “FIGHT!” for the voter, while the Reps, say the will “WORK” for the voter. Interesting contrast, Ithought.

  29. Artfldgr Says:

    Mike Mc,
    you can go back and read way back in the beginning before the elections, how i said that they can cause us to act in such a way to justify certain actions and changes for our own good and protection.

    you can read how everyone denied it, not possible, etc.

    your describing one, the financial crisis is another, food crisis may hit next year another, and dollar devaluation, etc..

    not only is it possible, but they pulled the pin on many of them if people haven’t noticed…

    when they converge, then what?
    care to read the army civilian labor camp paper?

    Civilian Inmate Labor Program
    en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Civilian_Inmate_Labor_Program

    The Civilian Inmate Labor Program is a program of the United States Army provided by Army Regulation 210-35. The regulation, first drafted in 1997, underwent a “rapid act revision” in January 2005; it provides policy for the creation of labor programs and prison camps on Army installations. The labor would be provided by persons under the supervision of the Federal Bureau of Prisons.

    The regulation indicates that the inmates could perform labor as allowed by 18 USC 4125(A)

    Of course after that which you talk about happens ends, then habeus corpus will be allowed again, right?

  30. rickl Says:

    I tend to agree with kaba. I think we are going to see unprecedented levels of vote fraud in this election. True, there have been crooked elections in the past, and some fraud every year. But never before have organizations like ACORN (or whatever they’re calling themselves now–they have literally hundreds of subsidiaries) had backing at the highest levels of the federal government. In addition, the Justice Department has been thoroughly politicized.

    I remember saying several years ago, while watching the outbursts of BDS on the left, that if they ever got back into power they would never relinquish it. I hope I am wrong.

    But since the left seems to be trying to turn America into a Third World nation, with Third World levels of corruption, Third World levels of poverty, and a Third World currency, why should anyone be surprised when we have Third World elections?

    Many have suggested that the left is actively trying to provoke a rebellion by patriotic Americans. That would give them an excuse to crack down on us. They have certainly been going out of their way to insult us, offend us, and demonize us at every turn. I can’t think of any better way to provoke violence than massive, in-your-face vote fraud.

    But if I’m wrong about the fraud, or if Republican candidates win by large enough margins to make fraud impossible, then I expect to see the Democrats claim fraud, voter intimidation, racism, and so forth. I also predict that after this election we will hear calls to give the federal government more authority over state and local elections. Centralized control will of course make fraud much easier in future elections.

    The left has been trying to delegitimize our electoral process since 2000, and I don’t think they will stop now, no matter what the outcome next Tuesday.

  31. Curtis Says:

    The October surprise is the fed monetizing the debt.

    Remember Bernanke saying that would never happen. We are now being told that inflation is good.

    On September 4, this was the Bloomberg headline:

    U.S. Must Buy Assets to Prevent `Financial Tsunami,’ Gross Says

    And on October 24, this was the Bloomberg opening sentence:

    The Federal Reserve may purchase $2 trillion of assets to stimulate the U.S. economy and start by announcing a fresh round of monetary easing on Nov. 3, Goldman Sachs Group Inc. said.

    Having concluded that there is nothing they can do to stop the inevitable on November 2, 2010, the progressive power elites are using the election furor as cover to give away American sovereignty by totally devaluing the dollar.

    That was the real October surprise.

  32. rickl Says:

    And the dollar devaluation could lead directly to a food crisis. Prices for wheat, oats, corn, etc. are already trending up. Meat prices typically lag a few months, but they will soon start increasing too.

    So the government strangles the private sector with taxes and regulations, killing jobs and driving companies out of business. They make medical insurance more expensive so that employers drop coverage for their employees. Then they devalue the dollar, making food and energy more expensive. Meanwhile, the unemployed are exhausting their extended benefits and still cannot find work. They will literally beg the government to step in and save them, trading their liberty for a handout.

    Does anybody still think all this is the result of incompetence or stupidity?

  33. kaba Says:

    ricki,
    I think the obvious question if we’re both correct about the fraud is, What then?

    Pajamas Media, The Tea Party, and doubtlessly other organizations are closely monitoring this election. If such massive fraud happens there will almost certainly be proof that it happened. I don’t think the Justice Department is going to be interested in resolving these issues. If anything they will probably act to support such fraud.

    This isn’t just another election. People have lost their jobs, their homes, and their savings. There is a lot of fear, frustration, and anger. Will people quietly tolerate fraud that perhaps throws the Senate from the Reps to the dems?

  34. rickl Says:

    kaba Says:
    October 27th, 2010 at 8:03 pm

    rickl(

    Subotai Bahadur addressed that last night in a comment at the Anti-Idiotarian Rottweiler.

    Food for thought.

    I agree with Promethea. That guy is one of the best blog commenters around. Neo has also linked him before.

    Here is the link to the comment Promethea referred to. It’s actually the last of a five-part series, and the links to the first four parts are in the first paragraph.

  35. rickl Says:

    Oops, I tried to get too clever and screwed up my quote.

    Here is what I was trying to quote from kaba’s comment:

    ricki,
    I think the obvious question if we’re both correct about the fraud is, What then?

    My links in the last comment are good, though.

  36. kaba Says:

    ricki.
    Thanks for the link. I don’t think the dems are aware just how thin that ice they’re skating on really is.

    As for me; I took an oath on 1/29/1968 to “protect and defend”. I don’t recall that oath having expired.

  37. Curtis Says:

    I like what another commenter said on Rottweiler:

    This has been coming for a long time, and Republicans, conservatives, and independents have had thousands of opportunities to get into the mud pit and face the liberals. Instead they’ve sat aloft, with piety as their guide, believing that they would overcome simply because they are “better than that”.

    Guess what?

    Frog, meet boiling water.

  38. Don Janousek Says:

    Sergey: So you’re saying that Nancy Pelosi was using quantum theory when she said we had to pass the ObamaCare bill to see what’s in it? Amazing. I always thought she was dumber than a bag of hammers.

    Query: According to quantum theory, is the cat even in the box before it is opened?

  39. rickl Says:

    I like this comment from there:

    lc purple raider bloviates:
    October 26, 2010 at 1:39 pm
    There was a story making the rounds years ago, before the interwebtubes were out there in all their glory, about the city of Chicago selling voting machines to the Soviet Union for a mayoral election in Moscow.

    The day of voting came, the serfs votes, polls closes, and then the Russkies counted the votes.

    And elected Richard J. Daley mayor of Moscow.

  40. ConceptJunkie Says:

    @Don – Yes, because you’ve already observed him when you put him in the box.

    What always amazes me is why a cat? Why not a dog? It’s just like, comed, for example, “The Simpsons” where the humor is much meaner to cats than dogs.

    Is it because dogs appear to display emotion much more clearly than cats?

    Anyhow, I’m hoping the Republicans can staunch this country’s slide towards oblivion and I get depressed us when I realize they did a pretty good job of helping the decline themselves. We are relying on the knaves to rescue us from the villains.

    Once again, we are voting for the lesser of two evils, although in at least some races, moreso than in recently history, there are a legitimately non-evil choices… or so it seems.

    God bless the USA, He’s the only one Who can.

  41. neo-neocon Says:

    ConceptJunkie: why a cat? Several people give their take on the answer here.

  42. Promethea Says:

    Curtis . . .

    Thanks for the voter fraud app. I’ve passed it on, and let’s hope it gets distributed across the U.S. We MUST fight the fraud.

  43. Promethea Says:

    rickl 8:03 . . .

    Thanks for linking to Subotai. He’s an important writer, and the more people who read him, the better.

    We’re at an important crossroads in American history. At neo’s site, we’ve discussed the fact that most liberals are childlike people who believe in unicorns, etc. (The evil Soros-types are another matter altogether.)

    This give us non-statists a huge advantage. Let’s use it. I know we can win.

  44. Beverly Says:

    Stay frosty, folks. There are already reports of voting machines not working right — check your ballot before you turn it in!

    And see this preview if you haven’t: it’s by Hillary supporters from 2008, about how the Obama thugs stole primaries through fraud, threats, and thug tactics. Really chilling:

    http://wewillnotbesilenced2008.com/

    I hope people pass that link on. It’s the kind of thing “60 Minutes” would do if they had the gonads to be real, impartial reporters.

  45. SteveH Says:

    “”I’m hoping the Republicans can staunch this country’s slide towards oblivion and I get depressed us when I realize they did a pretty good job of helping the decline themselves”"
    ConceptJunkie

    All of us helped. Mostly by allowing fiscal responsibility to become a thankless chore imposed by mean and uncaring people. Nothing could have been further from the truth and the voting public is just getting around to figuring that out.

  46. Scottie Says:

    I’m going to leave aside my own election predictions for the moment, as well as the cat reference, and focus on something neo mentioned that struck me while reading her usual enlightened remarks.

    After voting in every national and local election since 1982, I’ve come to the conclusion that ALL elections are *the most important ever*.

    The reason being that, even when times are going well (economically, socially, internationally, etc.), there is always going to be some a$$hole waiting in the wings to screw it up.

    Said a$$holes are convinced they know better than anyone else of either of two things:

    1- Only they know how to take best advantage of good economic times, and a government perceived to be operating properly, to advance a social agenda they truly believe in.

    or…

    2- Only they know how to give people those good economic times again.

    Either way, in their minds, if only they could substitute their own decision making abilities for those of the self-directed will of the majority then things would improve by whatever yardstick they insist on measuring by.

    These meddlesome fools must be prevented from getting a foothold in power from which to implement their ideas – and those footholds generally seem to first occur when the majority is not really watching out for them.

    It’s only when they have attained office and begun to do damage do they get on most people’s radar.

    As we can now see from PeeBo’s example – it’s generally too late by that time to prevent the damage.

    So, every election is important if only to keep such egotistical fools out of office.

    My greater concern is what happens AFTER this year’s election cycle and whether or not the public continues to pay attention or not.

  47. Promethea Says:

    Scottie 8:16 . . .

    Good summary of the importance of elections, and how the crooks and idiots are always waiting in the wings.

  48. Curtis Says:

    I was listening to Heidi Harris out of Las Vegas this morning. The state of Nevada is an uproar. Voter fraud isn’t going to save the Democrats; it’s going to screw them. When you throw on the light, the cockroaches go scurrying.

    This is the delight of the present season. Gird up your loins . . . Put on your stomping boots . . . and enjoy!

  49. Artfldgr Says:

    Rickl
    So the government strangles the private sector with taxes and regulations, killing jobs and driving companies out of business. They make medical insurance more expensive so that employers drop coverage for their employees. Then they devalue the dollar, making food and energy more expensive. Meanwhile, the unemployed are exhausting their extended benefits and still cannot find work. They will literally beg the government to step in and save them, trading their liberty for a handout.

    Does anybody still think all this is the result of incompetence or stupidity?

    i gave everyone more than a two year head start with that EXACT description.

    dont beleive me? go way back when everyone was trying to be “reasonable” and not be “unreasonable” in their assumptions and so forth.

    when i said that those people would doom us! that as my family taught me, its those people that make you stay and not act. it was the “reasonable” who sat at their desks on 9/11. it was the reasonable that stayed on the beach in aceh when the water went out..

    as it ALWAYS is… technically the liberals who thought that they had retirements, didnt need opportunity, had the future planned so that they knew whether they were greedy.

    were all reasonable in the face of unreasonable.

    I even made the direct argument as to food, and control, and ration tickets, and who gets medical care, WAY BEFORE any of it was implemented.

    and now, we are realizing that what i said is happening, and we wasted the two years of preparation (i tried not to, but everyone around me kept me in the crab bucket).

    This is the delight of the present season. Gird up your loins . . . Put on your stomping boots . . . and enjoy! – Curtis

    really?

    then you cant see past things…

    the left now knows that everyone hates their agenda. if you read “the coming insurrection”, you will know this. if you read the stuff that came after the 40s, you would know this.

    THIS is why they delayed the actual laws when they put them in…

    you know. like setting a timer to blow up when the OTHER side moves over it later?

    all the ills are going to be believed by the nuttiest lefts who are already violent.

    they are gearing up for a complete lockdown… as i said they would… there is a reason why my family FLED rather than sat aroudn to see the show..”and enjoy”

    there is nothing to enjoy..

    and what all of you are ignoring is the OBVIOUS AFTER THAT…

    that the soviets and the chinese and others are not going to let the good guys turn bad and then have no more moral reason to NOT use or have full blown war!!!!

    what would Stalin have done if we were Russia and they had all the modern advanced weaponry?

    you realize that with no factories, no credit, no capable population, no unity in family and community, we are naked and crippled for war?

    china and Russia have been rapidly building and amassing material for around 2012..

    and as in the other post where i point out that we invaded Russia…

    what do you think the pay back is almost 100 years to the day?

    if Obama locks it down, mr capable will be the man leading a war effort… not some war in which he has a leverage in voting, but a war that if he loses, they do what to him, his family, and the rest of the occupants that they dont need any more?

    he and the others are so intent on seizing power in a system which is whole and protected without regard for that… is VERY different than the people they are PRETENDING to copy.

    We are ALL missing the bigger picture.

    THIS HOUSE CANT FALL WITHOUT EXTERNAL FORCES MOVING IN.

    the whole cloward and piven and ALL the other theoretical papers take for granted that their asinine idea need not pay attention to military things.

    ie. their keepers feeding them stuff and helping them from external places (we can list them), have only fed them HALF the game.

    not only that, but they are using a old invalid play book!!!!!!! one in which the other side knows the moves they will make.

    as i said… these smart people think they are great not because they are, but because selective forces kept selecting them for their harmful ideas… rather than select them for merit…

    they think that they can do this change and Russia and china are going to be happy to have a third ruthless power with all the superior weaponry and ability in the game…

    Russia test launches three missiles
    news.xinhuanet.com/english2010/world/2010-10/28/c_13580283.htm

    Three intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs) have been test launched on Thursday, one from the northern Plesetsk launching site, and two from strategic submarines, news agencies reported.

    Anti-US sentiment rages in Chinese military
    http://www.hindustantimes.com/Anti-US-sentiment-rages-in-Chinese-military/Article1-612122.aspx
    US Defence Secretary Robert Gates met his Chinese counterpart, Liang Guanglie, in Vietnam on Monday for the first time since the two militaries suspended talks with each other last winter, calling for the two countries to prevent “mistrust, miscalculations and mistakes.” US is worried that its
    increasingly tense relationship with the Chinese military owes itself in part to the rising leaders of a generation, who, much more than the country’s military elders, view the US as the enemy. Older Chinese officers remember a time, before the Tiananmen Square protests in 1989 set relations back, when US and Chinese forces made common cause against the Soviet Union.

    The younger officers have known only an anti-American ideology, which casts the US as bent on thwarting China’s rise.

    Talks set on Chinese military buildup
    http://www.upi.com/Top_News/US/2010/10/25/Talks-set-on-Chinese-military-buildup/UPI-81261288010068/
    A Chinese publication in May titled “Maritime Development Report 2010″ expressed the goal of becoming a “great maritime power.” China said in the document it wanted to expand the range of waters that come under Chinese sovereignty.

    Details of the talks between Japan and the United States will be confidential to keep from angering China, the report said.

    M16 spy Gareth Williams had ‘no traces of foreign substances’ in his body which was found zipped in a sportsbag
    http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-1324566/M16-spy-Gareth-Williams-traces-foreign-substances-body.html

    we forget the whole leadership of one country was taken down questionably

    some leaders have just died, others died with bombs… in mexico, the leadership is changing fast thanks to the narcos… will a socialist state replace it once the others are gone?

    Russia is now sharing nuclear technology with chavez. as well as ak107 and dragunove sniper rifle and grenade launch technology… (you know, the kind of thing you need for urban conflict).

    Hugo Chávez’s Military Buildup and Iranian Ties
    http://www.weeklystandard.com/blogs/hugo-ch-vezs-military-buildup-and-iranian-ties_511234.html

    Russia to Bulk Up Black Sea Navy with New Ships, Subs
    http://www.novinite.com/view_news.php?id=121493

    they are gearing up for a fight..
    and they are going to do it all at the same time

    and by doing so, we wont be able to handle things, and will have to sacrifice some things for other things. and so will end up bad position even if we do good…

    EMP Legislation Awaits Senate Action
    http://www.globalsecuritynewswire.org/gsn/nw_20101027_3104.php

    Providing national defenses against EMP attack is thrust of Army research inquiries to industry
    http://www.militaryaerospace.com/index/display/article-display/8065827945/articles/military-aerospace-electronics/executive-watch-2/2010/10/providing-national.html

    anyone catch that the wiki logs show that there was WMD? that is, it describes them finding them, disposing of them and coming upon many caches…

    they dont want you to notice how close to WWIV they are taking us..

    impending destruction has a way of focusing the intellect and so would get us to look and act in a meaningful way… not knowing about it means we wont have such a keen response…

  50. kaba Says:

    Assuming this election follows most current predictions with the Repubs gaining 55+ seats in the House and 7-9 seats in the Senate; will the major media begin to realize what a huge liability Obama has been to the dems? If so will their song of adoration perhaps become something very different?

  51. Curtis Says:

    Artfldgr, I believe (operative word here, believe) I share with you an attitude of hyper-awareness to threats and danger. I remember taking a Naval Science class about 30 years ago and I was appalled at the lack of concern by the midshipmen about Communism. So my proclivity mentioned here is lifelong.

    But what’s not to enjoy about this massive infusion of energy, the involvement of the common person, and a return to limited government, state’s rights, freedom of market and religion with an emphasis on family. It’s an affirmation of the strength and truth upon which our country was founded, has prospered, and will prosper.

    Did you ever hear the common saying, “all work and no play makes Jack a dull boy?”

    I have no intention of letting up. The current battle is also being won against Republicans who installed tariffs, increased the debt, relied on deficit spending, assented to federal usurpation of power over the states on euthanasia, gay marriage, and other social issues, and the islamization of our military and clandestine services.

    I quite enjoy your posts, but your logic or assumption is quite incorrect: What has begun is not shallow and will not disappear after election victory.

    Some years ago I saw an interview with a kid genius. He saw all the defects, all the problems. It was overwhelming for him. It stuck with me, a statement he made and I don’t remember it verbatim but it was something like, “Something bad is going to happen, I just know it.”

    Take a break and smell the roses. That too has a way of focusing the intellect.

  52. SteveH Says:

    “” will the major media begin to realize what a huge liability Obama has been to the dems?”"
    Kaba

    Ummm no. All their problems are perfectly explainable by asserting skeered white folks just weren’t ready to stop being racist toward blacks. With the lytmus test being a non racist would go along with his own demise.

  53. Sergey Says:

    It is being routinely overlooked that much more is at stake in these election than just politics. It is not about which party will govern for the next 2 or 4 years, but about destiny of a great social experiment launched more than 200 years ago: will it be prolonged or will wane out. Nihilism and apathy can kill it, a new great awakening will save it. Now American dream is like Shroedinger’s cat: half live, half dead.

  54. kaba Says:

    SteveH,
    Two weeks ago I would have agreed with you without reservation. However a Harris Poll out this week shows Obama’s approval rating @ 37%. And a New York Times poll published today shows virtually every demographic except for blacks moving to the Repubs. There is even speculation that more women might vote Repub than Dem for the first time since this data was tracked.

    I think if the media percieves that Obama is likely to lose the White House as well as cost more heavy losses in the Congress they’ll stand in line to throw him under the bus. It could get really ugly.

  55. rickl Says:

    Artfldgr Says:
    October 28th, 2010 at 11:39 am

    i gave everyone more than a two year head start with that EXACT description.

    dont beleive me? go way back when everyone was trying to be “reasonable” and not be “unreasonable” in their assumptions and so forth.

    Oh, I remember, all right. And I’ve been on the “unreasonable” side pretty much since Day 1. I’ve never doubted that these destructive policies were anything but deliberate.

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Previously a lifelong Democrat, born in New York and living in New England, surrounded by liberals on all sides, I've found myself slowly but surely leaving the fold and becoming that dread thing: a neocon.
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