North Korea flexes its muscles
It should come as no surprise that North Korea has decided on a show of force to celebrate its imminent change of leadership and to send a number of veiled messages:
A South Korean soldier was killed and 13 others injured after North Korea fired dozens of artillery shells onto a South Korean island setting more than 60 houses ablaze and sending civilians fleeing in terror…
The attack came as Stephen Bosworth, the United States envoy on North Korea, departed from Seoul for Beijing. Mr Bosworth is attempting to find a consensus to restart the six-party talks between China, South Korea, Russia, Japan, the United States and North Korea on the rogue state’s denuclearisation.
It also comes as North Korea prepares for a change of leader, with Kim Jong-un, the third son of Kim Jong-il, widely expected to take over from his 68-year-old father. Analysts have noted that the last handover of power in North Korea was also accompanied by a series of aggressive acts intended to strengthen the new leader’s relationship with the army. An internal power struggle in North Korea, between hardliners and reformists, is also thought to be underway, and could have sparked military action…
South Korea has often speculated that the North will attack Yeonpyeong in order to strengthen its hand in any negotiations with the West.
The Korean situation has been a mess for quite some time. I’m relatively certain that Obama’s weakness doesn’t help matters, but the North Korean agenda has been difficult to change or affect whether the US is run by relative hardliners or softies.
The key, as always, lies with China, the only country that seems to have influence with the North. When (and if) China wants to put the screws on North Korea, it will. Till then, North Korea seems free to demonstrate periodic and controlled aggression towards the South, in order to make whatever internal and external points it wishes.
It’s not like the south isn’t firing back.
I’m for defending South Korea, by the way.
I don’t think North Korea’s leadership cares any more about the lives of their own soldiers any more than they care much about the lives of their starving people, provided said people don’t and can’t revolt. If SK and NK lose a few men or a few thousand but the leadership gets passed on and the military stays supreme that is all that matters.
Pretty sick situation in North Korea. And yeah, you are right about China’s relation to them. NK has long done China’s bidding in exchange for Chinese support. And they are given quite a long leash.
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I think South Korea is a little economic powerhouse. Something tells me China wouldn’t lose any sleep if they suddenly weren’t.
There are very few good options for dealing with North Korea. Still, I would feel better about all this if we didn’t have basically an empty suit in the White House.
Perhaps it’s time to arm the Japanese and the South Koreans with nukes. Maybe state that one or both of those countries will have their finger on the button of US provided nukes (mobile launchers or a submarine perhaps) as “protection” until NK is a nuke-free country. At which point, the nukes would return to the US. That most certainly would get China’s attention and probably would force China to force NK to drop its nuke program.
Whether such a US gambit would be better through overt channels or covert ones, I’m not sure. I’m also not sure if there would be ramifications that we would find unacceptable. However, short of all out war, I see no other way to tame the North Koreans.
If we had the correct leadership, or can bend the arm of the twit in chief, we might make this a learning environment for Iran. I could see this becoming a very hard lesson. Then again, since Japan and S.K. are unarmed, in the nuclear way, I am not sure this is the time. We need to arm those people. Even if it all goes bad, quickly, let them have their own nasty little nuclear war. I think we can contain that, give or take a couple of useless idiot cities.
Sorry, but some things give me cheer.
North Korea was made communist by the Russians, but soon was Mao’s only satellite country. In a certain way they are better Maoists than the Chinese. It is still hard for the Chinese communists to let this go as it plays into Chinese nationalism as well.
The chinese are like the arabs they have a huge chip on their shoulders. They think they deserve a larger place due to their glorious 5000 year old civilization. But the chinese have no one to blame but them selves. No recent conquerors, no foreign blockades. Very humiliating. China should always have been dealt with properly, fairly but firmly. We have failed in all three
What treaty did Obama sign with the south a while back?
My wife, Chinese born, just rolled her eyes at this. Winter is bearing down and NK is going to go hungry without help. So they pull this kind of stunt to get the Chinese to bribe them off with food.
I think Krauthammer suggested we imply to the Chinese that we’re ready to arm Japan and South Korea. If they do not respond to that, we go ahead and give Japan and South Korea nukes and then mention Taiwan is looking for a nuclear arsenal too…
But holmes, you’re being completely realistic, that isn’t compatible with the Obama administration’s hot air (negotiation till the enemy finally tires and compromises) strategy. Apparently the only people quaking in fear of Obungler is our allies. North Korea is the Chinese Communist’s junkyard dog….
NK is China’s pitbull and the neighbors are duly intimidated. As others have suggested here, the neighbors should get some nukes. They’re quite capable of building their own, aren’t they?
“Bad, bad Japan!, bad South Korea!, bad Taiwan! we’re shocked, shocked!”
If the Norks aren’t careful, Obama is going to whip out his teleprompter.
After the Nork submarine sank the South Korean navy ship a few months ago, South Korea did not retaliate. I guess they gave peace a chance.
http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20101123/ap_on_go_pr_wh/us_us_north_korea
Obama is outraged, eh? Does that mean he will send a strongly worded letter next?
The teleprompter might sputter:
Putting on Obama hat:
Let me be clear. I condemn these attacks on South Korea. As we move forward in discussions with North Korea I want to remind them that they got us into this mess in the first place. I don’t mind them hopping on for a ride out of this mess. But North Korea can sit in the back. Because… we need to spread the wealth. South Korea has been able to prosper while North Korea falls behind in every category from health to education.
Oh yeah:
While South Korea uses more energy per capita than North Korea – we need to address the inequities of the Korean peninsula. And as Confucius says: Before you embark on a journey of revenge, dig two graves. and then he says: He who will not economize will have to agonize.
http://www.quotationspage.com/quotes/Confucius
he he
We should fly a Predator drone over Kim Jong-un, take some pictures and then send them over with a note that next time, it’ll be a Hellfire missile, not a recon pod.
Oh, wait, that’s the way I’d saber rattle.
It’s been common knowledge for about forty years that the Norks have about 10,000 artillery tubes and rocket launchers within range of and aimed at Seoul.
They can destroy the capital and kill 250k people in about twenty minutes.
Seoul is practically on the border, at the south end of the Ui Bong Ju Gap, a mountain passage which runs one way. Seoul is a the south end. Going north, you run out into mountains and noplace. Pyongyang is ‘way to the north.
If this gets going, the SKs know they lose their major city and a huge proportion of their population and there’s nothing they can do about it.
IMO, they SKs will swallow anything until either they decide that the intro to the second Korean War is the lesser of two evils, or somebody screws up.
Korean Demilitarized Zone Wiki…
Besides a pretty long list of lots of BS border games
The section on Incursion tunnels, is most interesting…
The first tunnel was found November 15, 1974
The second tunnel was found March 19, 1975
The third tunnel was found October 17, 1978
The fourth tunnel was found March 3, 1990…
I agree with Richard A. – I served a year tour in Seoul in the early 90s. The Sorks will swallow a lot of c**p from the North; both because of the nearness of Seoul to artillery retaliation, and because if they actually beat their poor, skinny, propaganda-deranged cousins in the North – they will be stuck with the burden of caring for them.
South Korea is modern, lively, efficient; the people are tough and humorous – some observers call them the Irish of Asia. North Korea is backwards, retarded, starving … the place is one big concentration camp, run for the benefit of the ruling Kim family and their hangers-on. They haven’t fought a real war since 1954, so they probably aren’t real good at it, all the sprockets hung upon their generals notwithstanding. But they have Seoul within range of the big guns … that is something to consider.
Although, when I part-timed as an editor of English-language translation at KBS, the other English-speakers and I pretty well agreed that any invading Nork force would probably not be able to make it past the first supermarket or electronic store without loosing discipline entirely.
Interesting times, as the proverbial Chinese curse goes.
Speaking of Chinese, are they going to step in and tighten the choke-chain on their vicious and ill-tempered little pet?
Sgt. Mom has another point. What do you do with the Nork people?
West Germany has had an awful time, financially, taking on the impoverished East Germans. I’m not aware of any social or cultural issues, but I can’t imagine none exist.
And the Nork people may as well come from a different planet as regards their views of anything at all, much less freedom and the hated Others of SK and the rest of us.
I am reminded of the view of the Palestinians (P. J. O’Rourke, I think) that they are the most thorougly wrecked people on Earth. Speaking of mental and emotional issues. The Norks have to be exponentially worse.
We can’t blame this one on the left. The insane caterwalling of the Malkinites weakend Bush to the point that he didn’t have the political capital left to deal with North Korea and Iran. Of course destroying the economy is the easiest way to get rid of Mexicans, well done Michelle, well done.
Huh? What does Michelle Malkin have to do with this?
Now Obama has moved from outrage to pressuring China.
interesting that most people who know history know that China tells NK what to do. Much easier to have hoards of Chinese troops just take NK if it doesn’t serve value for kabuki theater… after all if real war breaks out a lot of refugees are going to try to move over the border
asking china to act is like asking the man who just turned his pit bull loose on you to politely insinuate the dog should stop chewing on your leg…
About the ONLY reason they would is to show who is boss by showing who has real control. SK chaos would be expensive, a nightmare, and no real issue for them (SK people are not generally going to flee into NK or China for safety)…
ownership is irrelevant control is everything
Neo, I have to disagree when you say that China is the key.
Going on our knees to China (which is how they will see it) only serves their interests. They want hegemony in the region, and this gives them the power they want. China doesn’t want full-scale war on the Korean Peninsula, but neither does it want the conflict settled. Keeping it simmering distracts the U.S. and keeps them in control.
No, the problem lies with the weakness of the Obama Administration. Victor Davis Hanson explains
“…the more sinister regions of the world are watching the U.S. response to the shelling, for either a yellow or a green light for their own agendas. More enlightened states are watching, too, for indications of the American reaction should the trouble spread to their corners of the world.”
“But after 22 months of apologizing, bowing, and contextualizing supposed American sins from the trivial (lamenting the Arizona law in a meeting with the Chinese) to the profound (the mythical Cairo speech, unilaterally pressing Israel right out of the starting gate), the Obama administration has sent the message that it may not be so comfortable with America’s past unilateral responsibilities to its allies, and may even sympathize with some of the grievances of our purported enemies. Whether this assessment is fair or not, that’s the message they’ve sent.”
…
“In general, listlessness and misdirection in Washington always ripple out to the world abroad within a year or two. Sanctimonious Carterism had confirmed the image of a paralytic America by 1979, which may be why that year saw the Chinese in Vietnam, the Russians in Afghanistan, Communists on the rise in Central America, hostages in Tehran, the end of the Shah, and the rise of an emboldened radical Islam. When Nixon and his congressional opponents wrecked U.S. foreign policy in the long dark days of Watergate, by 1973-4 the world became a very unstable place, with the Yom Kippur War, oil embargoes, an imploding Southeast Asia, and the Turkish invasion of Cyprus.”
…
“…the commander-in-chief needs to stop his contextualizing and apologizing, especially this pernicious messianic notion that, as an empathetic and post-national president, his mission is to redeem a previously culpable America. Otherwise, in the next two years that nonsense is going to get people killed.”
How many of us failed to see from day one of Obama’s election that his legacy would be blood and plenty of it.
Tom, Thanks for the Victor D. Hanson link .
Wait a minute the link did not work!
Bob.
Sufficient.
Thing is, pointing out these possiblities has been foreseen by the progs.
They are prepared to sneer at you for being “afraid”, or accuse you of wanting and promoting what you point out is likely to happen.
There is no discussion with these people.
Bob From Virginia Says:
November 23rd, 2010 at 10:38 pm
Well, I sure didn’t. I remember saying to someone shortly after the election, “He’s going to get a lot of people killed.”
What to do, what to do?
I like what Dr. Michael Scheuer said today on Brett Beier, (I paraphrase) “we should have sunk the North Korean Navy. That way, instead of spending their resources on nuclear weapons they’d have to rebuild thier fleet.”
No six-party talks, no humanitarian relief – a couple dozen well-placed tomahawks ought to do the trick.
It’s not too late either, do it as a somatic reflex to the next time the People’s Republic pulls it’s next stunt (and they will).
That way we can just tell the Chinese, “Oops”.
I consider myself pretty Hawkish in general. But, I have not understood our Korean policy for about the past 30 years. All during this period S. Korea has had a strong economy. S. Korean population exceeds that of N. Korea significantly. N. Korea has maintained a strong Army, but has no infrastructure to support it. South Korea has had a robust military, and could support an even larger one, if they chose.
So, why is the defense of S. Korea our responsibility? Why haven’t we pulled out of there long ago? Why haven’t we told S. Korea and the world that the S. Koreans are perfectly capable of defending themselves against their impoverished cousins in the Northon–BUT, as an ally they are under our nuclear umbrella if threatened by Nukes. Furthermore they will be provided unlimited air and logistic support if a THIRD party became involved in a conflict between North and South.
I know that Seoul is perilously close to the DMZ. N. Korea could wreak havoc, for a time if they chose to. Still, it would be suicidal for NK to launch a major assault on the South.
We get ourselves wrapped around the axle when there is no need.
The major cards that the DPRK holds are:
First, that no one–not the Chinese, not the South Koreans, not the U.S. or others–wants to have to care for, feed, and try to rehabilitate the population of starving, heavily propagandized, backward, probable psychological and physical basket cases that the DPRK has created, that will start to stream out in their millions as refugees towards China and South Korea if the DPRK disintegrates.
Another major card is the DPRK military, which is huge, heavily armed, used to its privileged status, and to having access to the food and other goods that the general population is denied. If the DPRK disintegrates, the DPRK military loses its privileged status and, as has been pointed out, just the massive DPRK artillery emplacements along the border with South Korea alone are likely capable of obliterating the ROK capital of Seoul in a matter of minutes. As has been extensively reported, the DPRK also has a whole slew of trained commando units ready to infiltrate the ROK in the event of a conflict, and the underground tunnels and naval assets to deliver them to their targets. Moreover, I would not be surprised at all to learn that the DPRK has stocks of biological and chemical weapons ready for delivery as well. What happens to all those heavily armed military units if the DPRK disintegrates?
Then there is the DPRK’s rapidly advancing nuclear weapon program.
Finally, there is the fact that the PRC is the DPRK’s protector and that, thanks especially to the policies and actions of Obama & Co., we are now so far in hock to the PRC that we dare not–under Obama & Co.–bother or offend them.
This would be a nightmare maze for a well-informed, competent, strong, and principled American President to navigate through. With the ill-informed, incompetent, moronic, impotent, probably “psycho” Obama in power, this will be yet another disaster–a major one–and one that is filled with extraordinary danger for the U.S. and the rest of the world.
I expect Obama’s response will be to fire off a scolding letter, to be “concerned,” to unleash his “insane clown posse” of supposed foreign policy and Korean peninsula experts–who will make the whole situation worse by just emphasizing the extent and depth of our current cluelessness and emasculation under Obama & Co., and for Obama to hide out in the White House, curled–figuratively or perhaps literally–into the fetal position.
Several months ago the DPRK managed to torpedo a ROK ship and kill ROK 46 sailors–with the ROK spending endless months trying to determine if it really was the DPRK that did it, when it was obvious from the first that is was an act of war–all in an effort by the ROK not to have to acknowledge what had happened and not to have to react, now the DPRK has openly attacked ROK territory and killed ROK marines, and all that the ROK says is that if the DPRK attacks again, then, the ROK will deliver a major response.
This is in large part the result of a wimpy, impotent, feckless, clueless Obama in the White House, whose presence there tells the ROK and all our other supposed “Allies,” “expect no help or backing from us,” “you’re on you own,” which gives all the neighborhood bullies the green light to “act out,” to push the boundaries, and to push people around.
Given this situation, my guess is that the DPRK–as always, run by a psychotic leadership–will continue its attacks, and that such attacks will get larger in scope and even more brazen and bold, for they know now that no one will stop them.
Oldflyer, I believe your question is easy to answer. We are there for insurance purposes. No one knows for sure that the North Koreans will see the situation as you do, but enough Norks can see that they cannot stand up to the US, hence the prospect of confronting a US would put a break on any of their crazier ambitions. Remember a defector from the North made it clear they still plan to conquer the South militarily. The idea is to avoid a war not win one.
With Obama in the seat I see them as more adventurous though. All America’s enemies can feel secure with him around.
Without Chinese help, NK population will began to starve in two weeks. The only functioning institution in NK is its army, all others became hollow and exist only nominally. This includes industry, party and civil bureaucracy, all social services, police and what not. The state is on the brink of implosion, currency does not circulate, on the markets everything is bought on $ or Chinese Yuan. Population is terribly ignorant, brainwashed and has no idea how modern world lives.
Never in history there was such huge madhouse run by inmates as NK. Both Chinese and SK fear most collapse of NK state, because they do not know what to do with 50K madmen totally inadequate to live in any modern society. They need instructions how to use toilets, any electrical devices, how to plan shopping – 50K of Mowgli. They are extremely poor and would need serious psychiatric rehabilitation to ajust to realities of modern life. Nobody wants and know how to do this. Governing elite knows all this, but has no exit strategy except war.
50 millions, of course, not 50K.
Here is the link to the Victor Davis Hanson article:
http://www.nationalreview.com/corner/253821/north-korea-and-ripple-effects-obamas-foreign-policy-victor-davis-hanson
to quote “And, in a larger sense, the commander-in-chief needs to stop his contextualizing and apologizing, especially this pernicious messianic notion that, as an empathetic and post-national president, his mission is to redeem a previously culpable America. Otherwise, in the next two years that nonsense is going to get people killed.”
So Victor Davis Hanson agrees with me, then. (See 11:13 from last night.)
On the one hand I’m flattered, but on the other hand I’m even more alarmed than I was before.
Make you wish we still had an IOWA-class battleship or two steaming under her own power. A dozen rounds from those guns would make short work of the NoKo artillery emplacements.
The were the finest battlewagons ever put to sea. Churchill wrote that they were possibly the perfect balance of speed, range, armor, and armament. And for you NJ folks: yes, my car wears battleship plates.