As a consequence of the domino effect that’s currently sweeping the Arab world, Libya’s Qaddafi is facing the challenge of his 41-year dictatorship’s life.
There are tyrants, and then there are tyrants. Qaddafi is no Mubarak; he’s more brutal and repressive, and already a great many more people have been killed in demonstrations in Libya than in Egypt as Qaddafi tries to hold on to power. That’s the way it is with dictatorships: the worst of them are always prepared to do more violence against their own people.
That means it ordinarily takes far more courage and far more lives to depose them, or is even impossible. If the ruler wants to up the ante, it can be made very costly indeed. The turning point often happen only when their own armies and police forces refuse to follow orders.
It’s impossible to know how many people have already died in Libya, and even more impossible to know how many more will be killed. Qaddafi’s son Saif has warned that “rivers of blood will flow” if there is civil war. He has also played the Islamist fear card simultaneously with the colonial fear card, saying:
If civil war ensued, Qaddafi warned that “oil will stop. Foreign companies will leave Libya tomorrow.” He said it would also invite a return of colonial powers: “Do you think Europe, NATO, the U.S. will accept an Islamic emirate in the middle of the Mediterranean,” he said.
I have read nothing that indicates any sort of knowledge about who the Libyan protesters are. Patriots eager for liberty? Islamists eager for a theocracy? Enemies of Qaddafi eager for their own leaders to take over, establish their own tyrannical dictatorship, and enjoy its spoils? Young men just tired of being poor, and angry in general? All of the above?
[NOTE: Qaddafi's son Saif is an interesting figure, who was apparently behind a failed drive for reform in Libya a couple of years ago.
...Ahmed Gabriel Fituri, a Libyan analyst close to the regime, [said] “What Saif al-Islam [a son of Qaddafi] offered in lieu of reform could have saved the regime and transformed it at the same time.”
But Saif’s struggle with the traditionalists, largely from Muammar Qaddafi’s revolutionary committee movement, who dislike change and feared that Saif’s reform program would threaten their own privileges and interest, was ended by Qaddafi himself in 2008, in favor of the traditionalists—ending Saif’s attempt for gradual reform.
Many young Libyans who embraced Saif’s “Libya al-Ghad” plan were left angry and in despair. Their hope that the regime might understand and respond to their economic needs and their yearning for more openness and freedom were dashed, said Tahani Tarapolisi, a writer and activist.]
Previously a lifelong Democrat, born in New York and living in New England, surrounded by liberals on all sides, I've found myself slowly but surely 
February 21st, 2011 at 1:06 pm
The state of Lybia is an artificial, as many Arab states are, but the most ominous aspect of it is that Qaddafi even did not attempt to forge some national identity and instead promoted tribal allegiances. Now the war looks more and more intertribal, with Kirenaik tribes of the east clashing with Tripolitania tribes of the west. Inter-ethnic wars are always the most cruel, so I think Saif’s warning about rivers of blood are well founded.
February 21st, 2011 at 1:13 pm
There are still unsupported claims that Qaddafi fled to Venezuela. Venezuellian authorities deny this, but this does not mean much. See
http://www.nationalreview.com/egypt-watch
February 21st, 2011 at 3:10 pm
Michael Totten describes an earlier trip to Libya at PJM. It sounds horrible.
http://pajamasmedia.com/michaeltotten/2011/02/20/in-the-land-of-the-brother-leader-2/
February 21st, 2011 at 3:23 pm
Sergey, I also heard but do not believe that Qaddafi fled Libya. Frankly the only thing we can be sure of is that the “ins” are killing the “outs”.
Unfortunately I am calling it for the bad guys. Money, discipline and arms trumps good intentions nine times out of ten barring a mass defection by the state terror apparatus. As for that Qaddafi can always count on members of his own tribe or hired mercenaries to do the killing for him.
The good news is that I am usually wrong in predicting events in the middle east.
February 21st, 2011 at 3:35 pm
Libya has the most oil reserves in Africa. Oil has shot up over $5 today. Top off your gas tanks today. Gas prices will be higher soon.
Most global stock markets are down between 1%-3% today. Seems like investors are finally starting to worry about the impact these rolling revolts will have on global growth.
February 21st, 2011 at 4:07 pm
Qaddafi is a strange duck. I doubt anyone can reasonably predict what he will do. Plastic surgery and retirement in the Caribbean doesn’t seem to be his style, thats about all I think we can rule out.
As Scott notes, the markets are getting jittery. Market loses across Europe were between 1.5 to 3.5% today. Gold topped $1400 and oil will probably cross over the $100 bench mark soon.
February 21st, 2011 at 4:08 pm
“He has also played the Islamist fear card simultaneously with the colonial fear card….”
There was a time when this would have been a true assessment. Now only the first half is true. There is no stomach in Europe or the US (current admin) to do anything. The return of the colonial powers to ‘set the natives right’ isn’t going to happen.
Who will get the blame for losing Arabia?
February 21st, 2011 at 4:43 pm
Lag wrote:Who will get the blame for losing Arabia?
GW Bush
Obama will get credit for bringing democracy to Iraq.
February 21st, 2011 at 4:43 pm
Bush
February 21st, 2011 at 4:47 pm
Arabia has been lost in the 7th century for about 1,400 years. I had no idea Bush was that old.
February 21st, 2011 at 4:54 pm
Here are some photos.
http://www.flickr.com/photos/a7fadhomar/5461027801/in/photostream/
Take a look at the whole photostream. At least someone is managing to get news out of Libya.
February 21st, 2011 at 5:18 pm
Do you think it might be time for more domestic oil drilling? If gas goes to $4-$5 a gallon, Obama may have to rise above politics. Windmills and high speed rail are not the answer.
A special election in Louisiana just gave Republicans a majority in the state senate for the first time since Reconstruction.
February 21st, 2011 at 5:26 pm
Parker – no, no, Bush is the devil incarnate, remember? Ol’ Fork Tongue goes way back, back to olden times in the cosmos.
He had to lock down Arabia 1,400 years ago so he could come back in Y2K and trade blood for oil.
The more you know…
February 21st, 2011 at 5:30 pm
Mr. Frank wrote
“If gas goes to $4-$5 a gallon, Obama may have to rise above politics.”
Gov. Jindal tells a story that when Obama came to La. after the oil spill started affecting the beaches his major concern was that Jindal was making him look bad. I suspect that would be Obama’s main concern with regard to $4.00/gal gas. His second concern would be finding a way to NOT permit further oil drilling. Remember this is a man who boasted of bankrupting the coal companies and is ignoring court orders to end the deep water drilling moratorium.
February 21st, 2011 at 5:37 pm
kolnai,
Thanks for opening my eyes to the truth.
February 21st, 2011 at 6:02 pm
I’ve never taken a lot of interest in Libya. Gaddafi, aside from being insane, has pursued a nasty, opportunist line, but has had limited resources to cause more than grievous mischief.
I was very surprised when I read this article by Michael Totten: http://pajamasmedia.com/michaeltotten/2011/02/20/in-the-land-of-the-brother-leader-2
On just how bad the place is. Its easy to see why, inspired by successes in Morocco and Egypt, the Libyans are taking this opportunity. They live such sad, poor lives, they have nothing to lose.
I was shocked at Totten’s description of Libya (from a few years ago). He also has pictures, which highlight what a bleak place it is (and I’m not talking about the desert). Ironically, the one nice place he talks about is the old Berber city of Ghadames, which looks like an extraordinary place. The irony is Gaddafi has banned anyone living there, forcing the inhabitants into nearby 1970’s soviet style apartment monstrosities.
February 21st, 2011 at 6:51 pm
A bit off-topic, but relevant to the media bias pervading coverage of the Middle East, a very upset Barry Rubin tells of a recent experience with NPR:
http://rubinreports.blogspot.com/2011/02/my-adventures-with-npr-case-study-of.html
That’s the way they play the game.
February 21st, 2011 at 8:17 pm
Rathtyen:
Thanks for the Totten link. OMG!
February 21st, 2011 at 8:21 pm
kolnai . . .
NPR (National Palestinian Radio) is worthless as a news source. Why anyone bothers with it is a mystery. It should be defunded ASAP.
I say this sadly because it’s usually the only place I can hear classical music while driving outside the Chicago metro area. But that’s what iPods are for.
February 21st, 2011 at 11:11 pm
The Totten story was great. Victor Davis Hanson put up a good one, too, at the Corner.
http://www.nationalreview.com/corner/260280/libya-without-gaddafi-what-expect-what-watch-victor-davis-hanson
February 22nd, 2011 at 1:49 am
Paul Gregory (Soviet scholar, Hoover Institution) says he believes the Arab revolts will lead, not to Kerenskys, but Lenins. That the Lenin playbook — be the most ruthless and tightly organized buggers of all — will be followed to a T by the worst actors over there. So don’t be too sanguine about good outcomes.
He makes a good case.
February 22nd, 2011 at 2:30 am
“Lag wrote:Who will get the blame for losing Arabia?
GW Bush”
Dont forget Palin. Can’t leave her out when you’ve got some blaming to do.
“Windmills and high speed rail are not the answer.”
How about unicorns and skittles?
February 22nd, 2011 at 2:32 am
“Paul Gregory (Soviet scholar, Hoover Institution) says he believes the Arab revolts will lead, not to Kerenskys, but Lenins.”
What else can you expect from thoroughly dysfunctional societies that have zero experience with democracy? Pre-revolutionary Russia looks like Switzerland in comparison.
February 22nd, 2011 at 3:36 am
Now everybody fights for his life, since defeat is no option. Nobody expects mercy from winning side. To prevent massacre, may be genocide, a foreign intervention is needed. But nobody has guts to do this. EU can not play colonialists, and African forces would be unacceptable to both Berbers and Arabs. So Europe must brace for tsunami of refuges on its shores. There will be many thousand of boat people in Mediterranean.