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Has Obama already won in 2012? — 60 Comments

  1. As was noted last night on TV, GHWB had a 90% approval rating at the end of the Gulf War, and then Clinton cleaned his clock.

    This morning, the markets were pulling back as the US’s credit rating continues to devolve. $5 dollar gas by Memorial Day, continued high unemployment, state taxes rising all over the place… not a great picture. I’m not taking BHO for granted, but I agree with Neo, 16 months is an eternity in politics.

  2. Oh… and another thought… is it really 2011?? From the way the President has been campaigning, and the rest of the Left is acting, you would think the election was this coming November.

  3. I’ll also remind people that Winston Churchill was defeated in the UK just after his leading and inspirational role in the Allied victory in WWII…primarily because of economic issues.

  4. I think a big part of the chest-thumping is the media and the left getting ready to set up their dominant memes for 2012. This may not be as significant in itself as has been claimed – politically, I mean – but the mileage that the left can get out of something like this, I have to admit, puts the fear of God in me.

    This may just be the old pessimist in me coming out, but this really seems to me have Obama’s foreign policy invincibility locked up. Compared to “He Got Osama (Which That Loser Bush Couldn’t Do, ehem),” no one cares about Libya, Israel, Honduras, Egypt, or Syria. And lets not forget him screwing over our eastern European allies on missile defense. But whatever. It’s all noise next to bin Laden.

    No matter what a Republican says, the response is simple: “Oh, did Republicans get bin Laden? No, I did, me and my supposedly ‘soft’ policy. Guess I really am just smarter AND tougher than you crazy cowboys.” We can think that’s stupid all we want, and I very much do, but it’s a winner politically.

    Barring future disasters (which are always possible, of course), foreign policy is dead to the GOP in 2012. At best we can wrestle Obama to a wash. But this does not ensure his re-election, because parlaying his smashing success in getting bin Laden into a similar claim of competence and smarts on the economy will bump up against a miserable economic environment. It can be done, but it’s not in the bag.

    It’s an odd situation, being a conservative and hoping that an election turns on entitlements rather than foreign policy. Nonetheless, I’d feel better having the election turn on Medicare at this point than on foreign policy. For this was experienced by enough voters not as a nice success long in the making, but as the exorcism of the Devil from the collective American soul.

    That’s just my take. I’m not sure I disagree with neo – neither of us think “guarantee” is appropriate here – but I might think this puts his foreign policy bona fides in the bag more than she does.

  5. Physicsguy, yes they are. The main reason is to scare-off any Democratic primary challenge. However, I think there’s a significant risk that they will peak too soon. Not sure the MSM can drag the Won across the finish line this time, but they’re going to try. All the local channels here were giving it they’re best shot yesterday (‘Where where you when you heard the news’). We’re in a generational crisis era, so ‘events’ as yet unanticipated are likely to determine the outcome.

  6. Has anyone else noticed that when The One accomplishes something good, it’s when he is following the policies of G.W. Bush or finishing something Bush started? It’s usually good for him also in terms of being approved by the American people.

    Why doesn’t he notice this and keep on doing more of it?
    For his own selfish reasons if nothing else.

  7. The media is working on the fashion angle that gave us Obama in the first place. Who is so unhip not to vote for this suave genius? Are you crazy?

  8. No not really.

    Everyone is happy OBL has been killed

    but,,,,,,,

    the economy still stinks,

    gas is moving toward $4.00 per gallon,

    we still haven’t seen all the jobs he made his first priority,

    food prices are headed up,

    he still doesn’t want to allow oil and gas drilling,

    the U.S. is sinking deeper into debt,

    and the list goes on.

    It has been said Americans vote with their wallets and most wallets are not as full as they were just a few short years ago.

  9. The assertion that Obama has already won is more psy ops. The crowd is crowing like the rooster at night–without real reason.

    The strong and conclusory statements show a wish fulfillment component. Liberals, not suffering anxiety very well, were feeling the strain of the recent attacks on Obama. Their world was threatened and now it is not.

    Wait a year!

    The one element that is suspect in this event is not the Seals, not Gitmo, not Bush or Cheney, nor the policy established by them, but Obama. He did not lead this effort but was overridden by Hillary Clinton and others. And subsequent details are troubling.

    http://atlasshrugs2000.typepad.com/atlas_shrugs/2011/05/skulking-towards-bin-laden-obama-overridden-by-military-and-intel-officials-in-takeout-of-obl.html

  10. It’s a common tactic — to defeat your opponent by claiming that the fight is already over, so he might as well go home.

    It’s analogous to closing down debate on global warming by insisting that the issue is already settled.

    It’s also a classic example of wishful thinking.

  11. I have to agree with previous comments. Geo. H.W. Bush came out of the first Gulf war with 86% approval or better, the economy then tanked and a year later he was gone. Americans love the parades of success but then have to trot off to fill up their tanks and go buy groceries. Taking out their wallets is a heady reminder of why they perhaps are dis-satisfied’ with the incumbants. They’d best brush up on some recent history before they continue their cheering. (And God bless our military and may those men never have to buy another beer for themselves till the day they die. )

  12. Consider the probability that Obama’s high in the minds of the media relative to the Administration’s “efforts to reduce man-caused disasters” may only last as long as there are no serious terror attacks between now and the election. Any bets that the Jihadists will not act again until after November 2012?

  13. I wouldn’t even expect the “foreign policy” aspect to work for anyone beyond those who would vote for him not matter what. Thinking that Libya will be quiet or good for a year and a half is a big assumption.

    We can always hope that whoever gets the nomination will have the gumption to say “yeah, you got Osama– by following exactly what Bush did. You stink when you do what you want; how’s Libya going?”

  14. I don’t actually believe Obama attended 5 national security meetings concerning OBL and taking a secret operation on foot or by heli drop into Pakistan.

    Obama is the guy who can’t be bothered to even care about Afghanistan in the first place, while doing multiple golf tours.

    This guy’s lazyness is endemic. Something like OBL shouldn’t change much.

    If it did, the obvious question is why. Was Obama looking for a wag the tail event like bombing Kosovo or Yemen? A bomb would be a more cautious and cowardly act, that would negate the risk to US personnel and thus negate the PR disadvantage. DId Obama think there would be no PR consequences because the media was in his hole? Does that support the contention that Democrats are better as Presidents in US wars if only because the Left won’t stab us in the back while we are fighting one?

    Given Obama’s character, Obama’s pro-activeness on the OBL intel meetings is out of character for him. Then there are stories that none of this happened, that Obama wanted OBL left alone or something. Curioser and Curioser.

  15. i just saw a bumper sticker on a car today that said “2012” with that pepsi/obama logo in place of the “0”. The minions are already gearing up with their logos and stickers and slogans!

  16. “Do they really believe this, or is it just trash talk chest-thumping propaganda?”

    Definitely just trash talk chest-thumping propaganda.

    Bush the Elder was at — what? 90 percent? — a year and a half before he was sent packing. Even The One’s admirers know this.

    “It may be that I give people too much credit for actual thought.”

    Definitely here, too.

    It was the dearth of actual thought that brought us The One in 2008. Nothing’s changed.

  17. If we go into a double dip when the Fed ends QE 2, Obama is in deep doodoo.

  18. If killing OBL is the ONLY thing Obama can point to, I’m not too worried.

    The only thing that really worries me is who the alternative will be. I will not vote for quitter Palin or gasbag Trump. There’s got to be somebody out there more experienced, more reliable, and more in-line with my values–but he/she isn’t making any splash yet.

  19. As noted above, it is way too early to call 11/12. Much can happen to wipe away this purported Obama foreign policy triumph. Libya, Afghanistan, Pakistan, Iran, Egypt, Yemen, Syria, Lebanon, and even Iraq may provide ample evidence that BHO is not the master of the world. And then, there is the economy

  20. It has now come out that the account of bin Laden’s death that was retailed by John O. Brennan, President Obama’s remarkably cavalier Deputy National Security Advisor for Homeland Security and Counterterrorism, was wrong in just about every detail. Bin Laden was unarmed; he did not use his wife (or any other woman) as a human shield; and his wife was not killed in the raid.

    http://www.powerlineblog.com/archives/2011/05/028962.php

    If Brennan lied about that, what else will he lie about?

  21. “If Brennan lied about that, what else will he lie about?”

    The entire BHO regime (which includes 90% of the MSM) are riding the wave before it breaks, trying to bale hay while the sun shines. Every member of the operation that ended the life of OBL is undergoing yet another phase of debriefing right now. There is no way Brennan has a handle on all that info; no one does.

    http://www.realclearpolitics.com/video/2011/05/02/barbara_walters_id_hate_to_be_a_republican_running_against_obama_now.html

    They want to skip the next election. 😉

  22. I have been reading the comments on a couple of blogs and newspapers and I have noticed the same overwhelming contempt for Obama as usual. I have a feeling the pro-Obama forces are engaging in what can be called immature politics, the type one sees in High School, I’m going to vote for so & so because he’s cool and it follows I can be cool too. Members of that mob we call fashion. Obama, the candidate of the naive and immature will test my theory that unemployment and impoverishment matures.

    As for polls, 40% pre-OBL raid say they won’t vote for him under any circumstances. Ohio and Florida seem gone for the Dems. His attitude on oil drilling should keep gas prices high, his refusal to acknowledge that the problem in the Middle East is their political culture and not George Bush and Al-Qaeda, and the uncertainty he creates in the market should alienate still more. Remember with 75% of media supporting him in 2008 he got 47% and was smashed in 2010. I cannot see the public buying a lemon twice. And if the public does, well as Brian said of Peter on Family Guy, this way he’ll (they’ll) learn (and America will have earned what it will receive).

    BTW I agree with Ymarsakar. The level of tactical thought and insight for OBL raid is way out of the decision making range for Obama. My guess he had somebody make the decision for him. Remember I compared to the Amazing Mr. Ripley. It still holds.

  23. You’re only as good as your info.

    All the points Neo makes assumes people understand about Libya, Egypt, and assumptions like this: “There’s also the fact that Obama had the guts and brains to make a good call in ordering them in and then getting out of their way so they could do the job.”

    Well, it looks like it wasn’t Obama who had the guts and brains. He didn’t lead this event. It pretty much had to occur because the Intel was out and he could not afford not to do it. He was forced into it. He didn’t do any ordering whatsoever. And as far as getting out of the way? I don’t think the pandering burial was getting out of the way. Sounds like that was the one area he probably asserted himself.

  24. The only thing that would help O permanently would be to reverse some of our lost liberties related to terrorism. Since that won’t happen, I doubt this will be that much of a win for him on the long term.

  25. The shelf life of this win is very, very short. It’s just one decision which will have absolutely no effect on our daily lives. Even the MSM will forget about it in a matter of days because the story has no legs to it. He’s dead. What else needs be said?

    Nonetheless, I still think that Obama has the election to lose. It will all be about the economy over the next year.

  26. Early on (as in less than 36 hours ago), Obama was all about “I did this” and “I did that,” as though he was point man. Now it appears that although OBL was un-armed, he was gunned down anyway. Yeah, war is hell, but shooting an un-armed man still goes against the grain of American culture. Obama was claiming that he sent in all the plays in this game; is he now going to take credit for giving the instruction to pull the trigger?

  27. IF the R’s could craft a message, speak the truth about obama, what everybody knows, and stick to it obama doesn’t have a chance. Did I say IF?

  28. The plain and awful hypocrisy of Obama:

    A man who refused to salute our flag, who threatened to make soldiers serve without pay, who declares America is exceptional like every other country is exceptional, who railed against “torture” techniques, who banned the words terror and war, who appointed nuts like Brennan and Powers, who has developed and uses the techniques of doublespeak, whose wife declares “now” she is finally proud of America, who has expanded presidential power into kingship, who deplores our Constitution, who leaves out the words “by our Creator” when referring to our Declaration of Independence, who watched an officer of the United States Navy go to the brig for a protest he might have stopped with a declaration or an action that would have cost him nothing, who showed loyalty to Chavez over Honduras . . . I could go on and on. . . this man places himself to receive glory and honor for an event he has done his utmost to prevent. It was not Obama. It was all those whom he opposed who came before him that deserves the glory and honor. That even one shred should uplift this impostor, this liar, this scoundrel, this ant-American communist, our enemy, is hateful. One day, and sooner will be better, the lies and the deceit will be exposed.

  29. Capn Rusty says, “Now it appears that although OBL was un-armed, he was gunned down anyway. Yeah, war is hell, but shooting an un-armed man still goes against the grain of American culture.”

    The German troops that began the Von Rundstedt Offensive (Battle of the Bulge) were dressed up in American uniforms. They shot many Americans they captured. When they were captured in return, they were lined up and shot. I have no ethical or moral problems with executing OBL. He got what he deserved and we were spared the spectacle of a Holder trial.

  30. Parker: I don’t disagree with you; I think I could have pulled the trigger on OBL in the same situation. But I stand by my comment that it goes against the grain of American culture to shoot an un-armed man. Maybe you and I are simply more blood-thirsty. Still, if we were only going to execute him, why didn’t we use a Predator?

  31. But anyone who reads what happened–and thinks about it for more than a superficial fleeting moment

    See, that’s the problem. There are a lot of people who don’t–and they vote.

  32. The Obamaphiles and their media accomplices are frantically trying to sell the narrative that he is unbeatable. It sure makes you suspicious that they are worried sick.

    I am not buying that pig. Gasoline hit $3.93 here today. Food is going out of sight. What is the Obama plan? Put windmills on the over the road trucks we depend on to bring us everything we consume? It is going to get ugly; and maybe very ugly before the election.

    Stories are hitting the airwaves now that the Uber Decider Obama (UDO) left the National Security team and the “assaulters” twisting in the wind for 16 hours while he slept on the decision. (How did the WH come up with that stupid term Assaulters? I would much prefer “the Heroes”.) Since we know that the Big Thinkers were increasingly certain that OBL was in the compound for a period of days, if not weeks or months; and we know that UDO attended five full blown briefings/meetings leading up to the decision, why wasn’t the decision ready when the Heroes were ready? Who will ask?

  33. Has Obama already won in 2012?

    It’s wishful thinking, a totemic attempt to invoke a self-fulfilling prophecy. It shows that they were worried, and now think – or would like to think – that their fears were baseless.

    For the Bamster, this is too soon. If it were May 2012, he’d be looking much better. But if he and the Dems brandish this thing like a St. Christopher’s medal for the next 18 months it’ll become shopworn long before the election.

  34. Predators and air strikes are unreliable. I would only settle for a nuclear barrage utilizing MIRVs or on site delivery as a sure fire kill.

    In that respect, having guns on the ground to confirm the kill goes a long way towards making sure the targeting was accurate and that OBL was really there when things blew up.

    Of course, Obama’s real problem would be trying to stall this little issue for months on end. Guess he had too much basketball and golf to enjoy. All that money in the White House to loot too.

    The problem with bombs is how often times people just don’t die from them. There’s just not enough firepower and a lot of different odds in the equation.

    There is nothing a nuke won’t take out, however, within a radius. Nor do AQ have the radiation shields to protect any underground bunkers.

  35. The problem was two fold. Finding and terminating OBL and 2. proving that this was done. The snatch after the hunter killer mission, accomplished that.

    If it was just a seek and destroy, we would not have the evidence or the evidence would be fragmented.

    The world of the internet wants videos and photographs, first and foremost. That’s their only real proof any more.

  36. I said this a long time ago and many thought I was crazy but I still think Obama will win in 2012. Most are not aware that the economy is growing, albeit, very slowly. Unemployment is already below 9% and could be below 8% in 2012. If GDP grows the incumbent wins. That’s a pretty hard rule in American politics. With OBL dead on his watch, Obama’s chances are even better. There are no credible Republican candidates in sight (Trump? Don’t make me laugh!). As a Republican, I am not thrilled. Perhaps we can take the Senate. The best we can do is work with Obama to open up oil and gas drilling and deregulate a little. If Obama can be like Bush on fighting terrorists, maybe he can be a little like Reagan on the economy. Politicians are like chameleons and can change colors without missing a beat. Obama has already shown he can do this. Let’s hope he does.

  37. Nobody knows who can win for sure in 2012. The events which influence that haven’t all happened.

    One thing I do know. The one sure evidence that we had killed Osama was his body. And we don’t have that. Why? The conspiracy theories are launched throughout the world and we must now depend on testimony of people or photographs. That was stupid.

  38. As Brit Hume said the other night to devastating effect, “but … it isn’t his handling of bin Laden that has people upset !”
    Or, as someone else (I don’t remember) said to equally devastating effect, “People are going to be psyched until . . . the next time they fill up their gas tank.

    Why would anyone fall for, respond to, or believe, such obvious and cheesy dnc spin? Honestly, the idea that bho is going to win in 2012 makes so much since . . . as long as you don’t think about it.

  39. “Still, if we were only going to execute him, why didn’t we use a Predator?”

    Capn Rusty, the official line is that capture was the intent and killing was the default. I happen to agree with that. There are conflicting reports (rumors) about the exact circumstances that lead to shooting the SOB. We may never know the full story.

  40. Bob From Virginia,

    Under most circumstances I would take that story with a shaker of salt, but I’ve always thought that Gates probably stayed on with Obama because he realized that The Won was not up to the job. I remember the reports of how Obama came out of his first pre-inauguration security briefings rather shaken. Obama’s whole FP has been a battle between his ingrained kumbaya thinking and the hits on the head he has been given by reality. That’s why he was unable to give a coherent message to the Libyan rebels.

    The interesting thing is that Jarret was right in some respects about foreign reaction to the killing. Germany (from its permanent position above the rest of the world) has been discussing the morality intensively since Sunday. If Obama returned to the Victory Column tomorrow, he would be greeted by protesters. Of course, the Greens are using OBL’s death to argue that the WOT is over and the German troops should be withdrawn from A’stan. Merkel has said that it’s good OBL is gone, as had the ridiculous foreign minister Guido Westerwelle. Helmut Schmidt dissed the whole R2P philosophy last night. All TV discussions bring up the question of whether the UN mandate authorizes going in to Pakistan without its express consent.

    If you want to know how I value German opinion on this, I will tell you something I read on German Yahoo News today: Westerwelle’s foreign ministry just announced that it was sponsoring a contest to come up with a symbol to represent human rights in the same way that the dove represents peace. Obviously, an art contest is the only thing not above their pay grade. There are a few sane CDU politicians who have their heads screwed on right, but they are countered by a mass of lefties and a feel good media.

  41. OMT, bombing the compound would have destroyed all the computer drives that were retrieved. I’m pretty sure Panetta and the intel community factored that into the decision.

  42. Makes sense to me. “He destroyed Osama bin Laden! Now let him finish the job he’s doing to America!”

  43. Y’all may want to remember something: Back in the pre-’04 election days, when we caught Saddam, or killed a high-up terrorist, progressives complained that Bush was doing it conspiratorially to bump his approval ratings.

    i.e. – this is just showing that those accusations were mere projection, because that’s how they would use, and now provably HAVE used, news like this.

  44. I notice a shift today to a new spelling, Usama, no longer Osama. Wot’s up with that? Perhaps generated by the WH; Obama and Osama differ by just one letter, after all.

  45. Worry not. The latest Gallup poll showed that his “wasting Osama bump” only got him a 6.6% rise. And it’s already losing altitude.

    /h.t. Ace of Spades

    Here in Moscow on the Hudson, there has been a certain amount of Liberals Strutting Their Tiny Stuff, very comical and annoying, but they live in their own little world anyway.

    Another poll showed that Americans are giving the lion’s share of the credit — well north of 80% — to the military, over 60% credit to the CIA, and just 30-something to Mr Wonderful.

  46. Oh, and Obama’s guts and brains? well, he waited for 16 hours after being told that Wikileaks had the courier’s name — he even SLEPT on it — before finally giving the order to go with the mission (this is per his ardent admirer Howard Fineman).

    OBL being notorious for bugging out pronto when he gets wind that his hidey-hole has been compromised, this was almost insanely stupid of Obama. That, or he was reluctant to waste the guy. Either one reflects poorly on him.

  47. Usama is a correct alternate transliteration of Obama’s name – most commonly used in the Media by Fox News (who get mocked as stupid for it) but also commonly used by many federal agencies including the FBI as the default, approved spelling.

  48. Or, we could just call Obama “Hussein.” /snark

    I read the Atlas Shrugs piece Curtis linked. Very interesting, if even some of it is true. BO’s alleged reluctance to act is believable, because of his character, his reflexive impulse to weaken and soften our country, and because even his boosters are saying he waited overnight to give the go-ahead, when Wikileaks already had that courier’s name and were on the verge of releasing it.

    If he really were keen to get Ole Bin Liner, he’d have stayed up late and told Panetta and Gates to hop on it like a duck on a June bug.

    But he went to bed instead, and took his sweet time about it the next day, too. Sounds to me like they had to PROD him.

  49. I suspect that hard drives and CD captured in bin Laden compound contain much more precious intel than bin Laden himself. He became redundant.

  50. I second Sergey’s analysis of the hard drives captured. I saw a report that “al Qaeda leader Mahmoud al Obiedi and two key aides” were captured the day after…thanks to information found on the hard drives.

    Anytime one of The Boys wants to swap his life to his hard drives, take him up on it…and let his former friends and colleagues do the Wack Job on him.

  51. He campaigns constantly because he has to have something that is “against” him, to appeal to supporters, to seem beset, to garner sympathy, to seem like the reform-minded outsider, prevented from implementing is kind and helpful policies by bogeymen. He is running against a straw man! (so far) And dividing (and conquering?) Americans. I know lots of young people who hate both parties now and have become cynical and disengaged – which benefits one party more than the other.

    I think Obama is going to use this bin Laden kill to justify more domestic fundamental transformation. The clues are in his announcement. I posted about it today.

  52. Insanely stupid or insanely smart, it would have benefited OBL, and thus it would have benefited the plan to hurt America.

    What else is Obama for.

  53. This reminds me of John Ringo’s fictional story about an incompetent Democrat President that is so crazy, Civil War erupts and the entire cabinet simply bypasses her. The Democrats won’t impeach, but the cabinet itself will start to do their own thing without even consulting the President.

    In this fictional story, before 2008 election, the President was Hillary Clinton. In reality, the President is Obama.

    Close, but not exact.

  54. I think we all had our suspicions, which is why we didn’t give in entirely to the celebratory impulse. Things were nagging us or worrying us.

    Things like this. Because we knew it had to be true, if our judgment on Obama was correct. It had to be. There is no universe in which our judgment of Obama is correct to such a degree, yet Obama took actions so contradictory to that psychological profile compiled on Obama over years of Presidential tyranny.

    But we didn’t know what was false and what was true. Propaganda using deception is best spread using a combination of truth and lies. The greater the content of truth, the easier the lie slips through.

    Now that we even have WIKILEAKS in on this little “op”, things are getting even more complicated, not simpler. But what is simple is Obama’s psychological profile. The most accurate to determine policy is to determine the motivations and habits of the PEOPLE making policy. This was true of Bush’s WMD and Iraq policy as anything else.

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