Obama the invincible?
Obama may not be spiking the football—but ever since the Bin Laden killing, have you noticed how much the left has been doing so? I’ve also observed a general increase in visitors from the left to blogs or periodicals on the right, trumpeting the Bin Laden action and suggesting it has made Obama virtually invincible. The aim is to demoralize the right.
Today comes an AP poll that was probably designed to do just that. It shows Obama’s approval rating shooting up to 60%, with more than half of respondents saying he deserves to be elected.
That’s a substantial bounce. But when Ed Morrisey looked at the fairly well-hidden sampling data, he found that Democrats were way oversampled in the poll. That’s a transparent way to affect a poll’s results.
There is little question that Obama and his supporters are riding the Bin Laden death for all its worth, and we’ll be hearing a lot more about it until November of 2012. And yet anyone who really thinks about it knows that the real victory belongs to the military, the CIA and the Navy SEALS; Obama’s role was to give an order. Everything else was a culmination of many years of work that stretches back to its beginning in the Bush administration response to 9/11.
We can argue about the details: did Obama really give the order or was his hand forced? How much did enhanced interrogation matter? But even with those disagreements, it’s clear that Obama’s role was relatively small. And if the people of the United States are so susceptible to biased media spin and can’t figure that out on their own, then perhaps we do deserve another Obama term.
As far as demoralization on the right goes, I have to admit I’m not too happy myself. But it has nothing to do with Osama Bin Laden’s death and little to do with whatever bounce Obama may have received from it. It’s the sparseness and poor quality of the Republican field that’s got me down.
What’s going on with that? Are there really no decent Republican politicians willing to enter this fray? And if not, why not? Is it because Obama is so invincible (I doubt that)? Is it just chance that most of the best contenders are too new on the national scene to feel confident about winning (hey, it didn’t stop Obama from declaring)? Or is it that most good people will not enter the internecine world of politics these days?
This is where Bush 41 was after the first Gulf War. Then a guy came along and kept saying, “It’s the economy, Stupid.”
“”Or is it that most good people will not enter the internecine world of politics these days?””
The job description is like asking that you coach a football team with corrupt referees officiating, never to be on your side. Any points scored will often get disqualified and any ass whippings you take will be exagerated to the fullest.
You’ll get takers who simply want the prestige. But they won’t know or particularly care about the game of football.
The bounce has no legs and we’ll all forget about bin laden during the early summer.
But the pros never doubt the power of the incumbency. Smart money is to always run after the incumbent’s second term, and that’s what the republican heavy hitters are going to do. If an upset comes, it will be from a dark horse candidate who’s name you probably cannot even spell right now. Sort of like how no one knew who Bill Clinton was, not too long ago.
Actually, I quite respect the field. Any one of them would make a satisfactory President.
The media’s full court press to save Obama is on. The Republican assumed field is not bad (excluding The Donald who might not make a bad Mayor of NYC), but their task is largely one of taking away the candy.
It’s going to be hard to sell “toughness” and self discipline when the Dems are giving gifts away. Winning will involve gaining the votes of almost everyone not directly on the public dole and reassuring those currently on the SS/Medicare system that they are OK. Part of this will need to be an assault on privilege and patronage. No one should feel that the future depends on your pull rather than your merits. So Affirmative action as well as Legacy admissions to college have to go.
So after assigning leaners this is a straight party poll with under sampling of Republicans and of Independents.
Sounds normal.
http://www.cagle.com/working/110504/gorrell.jpg
“And if the people of the United States are so susceptible to biased media spin and can’t figure that out on their own, then perhaps we do deserve another Obama term.”
This is what scares me… and I think it’s very likely.
That’s a substantial bounce. But when Ed Morrisey looked at the fairly well-hidden sampling data, he found that Democrats were way oversampled in the poll. That’s a transparent way to affect a poll’s results.
The CPUSA never sleeps.
I’ve also observed a general increase in visitors from the left to blogs or periodicals on the right, trumpeting the Bin Laden action and suggesting it has made Obama virtually invincible.
Hmmm, yes. To which I would reply Let us discuss this again in year, after Osama has been dead and buried for a while, and the price of gas, food and clothing, the lack of jobs, the number of foreclosures and a continuing weakening of the housing market are much more pertinent. To quote a campaign slogan, It’s the economy, stupid!
The Left is at war with you, regardless of whether you think you are at war with them.
Keep the faith!
I, too, saw Ed Morrisey’s analysis of the AP poll. The left, and Obama too, does everything it can to believe that he has become invincible (a recent news item at Politico is hinting that the White House now thinks is can win Texas, wildfires notwithdtanding).
There seem to be two developing themes for the upcoming election: 1) Obama is invincible, and 2) if you vote against an Obama second term, considering all he has done, it proves your racist intent.
This is all leftist fantasy. they may actually believe it, but the goal is to engender a national consensus. Remember, to the left, consensus IS reality.
On our side, we need to keep strategically poking holes in this fantasy so that the people who matter (the 7% or so who gave Obama the electoral win) recognize the left’s strategy and the hollowness of their claims.
As for the left, those who really believe this tripe, let them. It just makes them look even more like fools who live in fantasyland and it helps to disarm them as the election approaches. They relish the idea, at long last, bringing an invincible gun to the fight, but they’ll find out that OUR gun, in contrast, is loaded.
Or is it that most good people will not enter the internecine world of politics these days?””
Who wants to get Palined? It takes a special person to withstand years of such vituperation and smears, and an amazing person to volunteer to withstand such.
But thanks to the Red infestation of the media, anyone resisting the Party’s agenda will be targeted by JournoList 2.0 and flayed tirelessly and shamelessly, with legions of “journalists” dumpster diving (for once achieving their natural station in life) for anything that can be used to make the candidate look bad. Few people have the temerity to endure that.
Ymarsakar, good one.
OB,
“legions of “journalists” dumpster diving (for once achieving their natural station in life)”
That’s funny!
Claiming President Obama is ‘invincible’ is indeed a tactic, and one we’ve seen the Left use many times — trying to win the argument before it has truly started, by claiming that the issue is already settled.
NO ONE is invincible. Barack Obama ran as the anti-Bush, at a time when outright hatred of the sitting President was at unbelievable highs. He played the race card shamelessly to his advantage. He had virtually every newspaper and television news station solidly behind him, slanting news to his advantage any way they could. He played dirty with campaign funds, raking in hundreds of millions with credit-card security checks turned off. He ran as a cipher, deliberately letting everyone see just what they wanted to see in him, and promised the skies to us all.
And with all that, he got, what? 53% to John McCain’s 47%?
Barack Obama never had a track record before. He has one now, and many millions of Americans don’t like it. The targeted killing of Osama bin Laden stands out among his accomplishments because, for all its smallness — as Neo said, all he did was to make a decision, and not a particularly hard one as Presidential decisions go — it’s just about the only positive thing he’s done.
(And they call that “courageous”. How would that stand up against the courage of Ronald Reagan, or of Harry Truman? Could Obama have shaken his fist at the Soviet Union at the height of their power, as Reagan did? Could Obama have made the Hiroshima decision and then slept soundly, as Truman did? In my book, Reagan and Truman were not our best Presidents ever, but Obama is still nowhere near their league.)
Is Obama vulnerable? Absolutely. And his worst enemy is his own mouth.
Keep talking, Mr. President; no matter what, just keep talking. Don’t worry, we’re listening.
respectfully,
Daniel in Brookline
Killing Osama is the only thing Obama hasn’t blamed on Bush!
http://www.pennypresslv.com/Obama%27s_Use_of_Hidden_Hypnosis_techniques_in_His_Speeches.pdf
I don’t believe I ever posted this link here but I highly recommend people read its basic premises and initial propositions.
Even if you understand nothing of psychological torture, therapy, seduction techniques, or oratory, you should perceive the power of such a weapon being used by our enemies, the Left.
http://serendip.brynmawr.edu/exchange/node/1896
Go here for examples of how psychological pressure can mold people’s behaviors.
Neo has also thought long and hard on this aspect of psychological conditioning and brainwashing captives.
There are many ways to bend people to one’s will. Smashing their knee with a ball peen hammer is only the crudest and most obvious technique in pain. It doesn’t even compose 5% of the total methods known to Man.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=b_mK_9T44Ls
Has an average self-hypnosis test.
This one is pretty hard to resist since the muscles in your hand want to contract anyways.
Only about 10-20% of humans are so gullible that they go into deep trances and you can tell them to do anything.
Those people you will never, ever, convince that Obama is bad.
Hypnosis works by using a person’s own beliefs. If they are willing to cooperate, hypnosis simply gives them a suggestion and they do it. To resist, requires stubborness and will. Will that is defined as “I, and only I will decide what I will do, where I will do it, and what I will believe”.
I don’t believe a damn thing coming from the Left. For good reason.
I just skimmed the comments. Excuse me if this is redundant.
Regarding Obama’s numbers. First problem: the poll was 1,000 adults (not voters) polled by phone/cell phone. Second problem: the polling was skewed by some estimates as much as 17% toward the Democrats. It was not an honest poll. Rassmusson does track with the AP poll.
I am not concerned about Obama’s poll numbers. I am concerned about the media filter that skew everything Obama. The GOP will have to develop strategies to break through that.
Neo, I just don’t buy the weak Republican field story. To me, Romney is a very strong candidate if he can get past the doctrinaire conservative prejudices. He is beat about the head and shoulders because of Romney care. I trust that in due time he will say something along the lines of…”So called Romney care was in Massachusetts for pete’s sake. It was what the people wanted. We tried it and we learneds. I certainly know better than to let something like this prevail on the national scene. The most compelling lessons are learned from mistakes–I learned.”
Pawlenty is a very viable candidate in my opinion. I don’t see that he has any real weaknesses. People disparage his charisma at times; I don’t buy it. He is very likable. More importantly, he has proven competence.
To me those are the strongest candidates; but, I do not slight others who could catch fire.
Everyone got sidetracked by Trump. Hopefully, that sideshow is over. Paul is another distraction, and perhaps a dangerous one.
I am concerned about the media filter that skew everything Obama. The GOP will have to develop strategies to break through that.
Exactly. The problem isn’t the intrinsic strength of the Republican field, but rather that to overcome the media and pop cultural bias a non-leftist candidate needs to be a rock star, an economics guru, and a military hero, while the leftist candidate can get by on styrofoam columns.
Some specifics on the oversampling of Democrats in the AP poll. If this sort of scrutiny keeps up, will some pollsters just have to lie about their sample breakout? — MJR
http://hotair.com/archives/2011/05/11/and-the-award-for-the-most-ridiculous-poll-sampling-goes-to/
And the award for the most ridiculous poll sampling goes to …
by Ed Morrissey
HotAir.com
posted at 9:30 am on May 11, 2011
Move over, CBS. Hang up the kid-leather gloves, WaPo/ABC. There’s a new sample-skewing sheriff in town, and it’s the Associated Press. In a new definition of “outlier,” the AP reported that its latest poll from GfK Roper shows Barack Obama with a 60% approval rating in a survey of 1001 adults, with even his approval on the economy shooting past the 50% mark:
—
President Barack Obama’s approval rating has hit its highest point in two years – 60 percent – and more than half of Americans now say he deserves to be re-elected, according to an Associated Press-GfK poll taken after U.S. forces killed al-Qaida leader Osama bin Laden.
In worrisome signs for Republicans, the president’s standing improved not just on foreign policy but also on the economy, and independent Americans – a key voting bloc in the November 2012 presidential election – caused the overall uptick in support by sliding back to Obama after fleeing for much of the past two years.
Comfortable majorities of the public now call Obama a strong leader who will keep America safe. Nearly three-fourths – 73 percent – also now say they are confident that Obama can effectively handle terrorist threats. And he improved his standing on Afghanistan, Iraq and the United States’ relationships with other countries.
—
Oddly – or perhaps not – the AP report doesn’t include a link back to the survey’s raw data. In order to find it, one has to go to GfK’s site for its AP polls * . The partisan breakdown in the sample is found about halfway through the PDF ** , and it explains a great deal about how Obama managed to get such a high boost in this poll while others showed shallow bumps that had already started to subside.
* http://www.ap-gfkpoll.com/pdf/AP-GfK_Poll_May_Topline_051011_POLITICS.pdf — MJR
** (page 37 out of 68 [somewhat over halfway by my reckoning — MJR])
The Dem/Rep/Ind breakdown in this poll is 46/29/4, as AP assigned most of the leaners to the parties. That is a 17-point gap, more than twice what was seen in the 2008 actual popular vote that elected Obama. It only gets worse when independents are assigned properly. When taking out the leaners, the split becomes – I’m not kidding – 35/18/27. Oh, and another 20% “don’t know.” That’s significantly worse than the March poll, in which the proper D/R/I was 29/20/34, and far beyond their post-midterm sample of 31/28/26. It’s pretty easy to get Obama to 60% when Republicans are undersampled by almost ^half^.
It ain’t over till the fat lady sings.
She isn’t even warming up yet. Heck, she’s barely started gaining weight.
“”The problem isn’t the intrinsic strength of the Republican field””
OB
I think what we’re waiting for is a game changer candidate. But my gut tells me what we’re really waiting for is a game changing event to make that possible. My best guess is the house of cards of corrupt liberalism taking a major hit is that event. It has to happen and soon if we’re to avoid massive suffering for the free world.
“Killing Osama is the only thing Obama hasn’t blamed on Bush!”
Give him time, its still early. Once the UN, the Hague, Human Rights Watch, and Amnesty International get involved BHO will be claiming GWB gave the kill order. (I’m now convinced it was a kill not capture order.)
“Exactly. The problem isn’t the intrinsic strength of the Republican field, but rather that to overcome the media and pop cultural bias a non-leftist candidate needs to be a rock star, an economics guru, and a military hero, while the leftist candidate can get by on styrofoam columns.”
Cain-West 2012. Cain debates Obama, West debates Biden = game over, MSM or no MSM. ‘Progressives’ can scream Uncle Tom until the cows come home and no one in the vast right wing conspiracy (50+% of all voters) will pay attention.
I for got to echo: “Its the economy, stupid.”
SteveH says, “But my gut tells me what we’re really waiting for is a game changing event to make that possible.”
I’ll ping again: Its the economy, stupid.
The very fact that such general dissatisfaction exists shows reform is longed for, and it’s very difficult to wait. Compared to the hypnotized Obama legions, who already have their answer, we must wait.
Baby Obama has his bottle. It’s pathetic. Soon, he’ll crap his pants. His policies dictate that. What he has sown, he’ll reap, and he has sown disaster in foreign policy and insanity in domestic policy.
People are sensing the need to reform our spending. People are sensing that government isn’t the answer. People are sensing that Obama is not honest or a messiah. This sensing is increasing and building and perfectly timed to erupt from the subconscious to the conscious. Obamaites fear such an awakening and their falsifying of polls illustrates their unease.
Like the militia at Bunker’s Hill, wait, wait, wait.
Fire.
Neo — beat me to the punch (not a big surprise!)
Was trying to help my Dad w/ his computer & get his AOL back that he is used to using as browser.
Upon opening AOL (/Huffington Post), the first story –BIG photo and citing facts (supposedly as per AP poll) detailed a whole new political reality from Bin Laden to the economy. Gotta read this article to believe the claims — most especially what voters now think about the economy. Apparently, there’s been giant swing since yesterday’s polls which had only 37% of voters approving of how Obamais handling economy. Businesses are on “hiring spree” — even though unemployment back to 9% (per govt. figures, and that never includes the real figures if those who have stopped even looking are included).
What a difference a business merger makes! And what a difference Obama’s campaign is having already — never mind that the CIA and Navy Seals did all the work. Did Obama really have choice in giving the go to this attack. IMO, no. If he hadn’t, it would eventually come out and he’d be known just as Clinton, as another President that let Bin Laden get away.
Is all the chest-thumbing (never mind: spiking the ball”) really having such an effect? Especially among his far left peace-loving, anti-war at all costs base re: a President who now has us in THREE wars?
It’s hard to know anymore — is there a REAL news reporting operation that anyone can trust anymore?
Or has politics come to a point where it is campaigning 24/7 and reported by the MSM as such, instead of elected reps tending to the vital needs of our nation which is in severe trouble.
And are there really so many people out there who really believe the death of Bin Laden has defeated the threat of terrorism (all thanks to BHO, of course!!!)
Is the nightmare beginning all over again?
Can this man snooker the voting public yet again?
Oy vay! Could we be in that much bigger trouble than that realized to date?
“And if the people of the United States are so susceptible to biased media spin and can’t figure that out on their own”
– yes then clearly we do deserve another Obama term because the people of the US clearly can’t figure media spin out on their own. Isn’t that pretty damn obvious by now?
Mark in Portland – recall Mencken:
“Democracy is the theory that the people deserve to get what they want – good and hard.”
“”I’ll ping again: Its the economy, stupid.””
Parker
It’s bigger than the economy. The epiphany coming will be about immoral liberalism at its very core. Probably much like the feelings of Germans who just stared at each other after the events of early 1945.
The golf outfit betrays the Resident’s non-involvement.
It was a Leon Panetta op.
The Pink House has subsequently trashed the results by over exposure.
It’s shocking that the SEALs didn’t fully destroy the stealth chopper. That was a major gaffe. It’s going to bite us in the future.
Parker – I watched the SC debate and was on the fence about Cain; but I just heard him on Bill Bennett’s talk show, and he was, quite simply, amazing.
He is a great communicator, he never waffles (but at the same time does not seem like a crusty old dogmatist), and he has a huge repertoire of fantastic Reagan-esque stories (if you haven’t heard his story about the little girl and the lemonade stand, it’s perfect). He speaks fluently and with authority on the economy – and his plan for “direct stimulus” is spot on. His refusal to be bullied into what he calls “instant grits” answers is admirable and comes off as prudent, and of a piece with his business sense.
All in all, in fifteen minutes he shot up to number one on my short list. And when I mentioned “Cain/West” to my brother, he practically did a somersault. Increasingly, at this point anyway, I’m thinking that you have the right idea.
Cain will not care what the establishment thinks, and to cover his national security flank, West is the obvious pick. That will be one formidable ticket. And as an ancillary benefit, when conservatives go 90% + for two black guys, it’s only downhill for the race card from there.
So, in short, I didn’t expect to be saying this, but I’m starting to think Cain is a very serious candidate, and the more people hear him speak, the more his star will ascend.
It made my day listening to him.
Whoever came up with that 60% poll owes me a new monitor.
I have begun to wonder if everyone with any sense or merit knows to stay away from politics.
Seeing what the media did to both Palin and Hillary when they were in full pant to elect Obama should be enough to give anyone pause.
On the other hand, our troops face worse every day. Perhaps it’s time for a show of courage among those who still think there is enough of America, and the West, to try saving. We are all waiting. I hope not in vain.
Meanwhile, I will vote for Donald Duck if he runs against Obama.
SteveH says, ” It’s bigger than the economy. The epiphany coming will be about immoral liberalism at its very core. Probably much like the feelings of Germans who just stared at each other after the events of early 1945.”
SteveH,
What you propose is an ideal awakening that came about after total destruction. I hope we don’t have to go that far to turn things around. My wishful vision is that a overwhelming majority will come to realize they have to take care of themselves, their families, and their neighbors; and government has become a tyrant that must be put back into a very small box.
Everyman for himself, government against all.
Kolnai, Breitbart’s dream team is Cain/West, I believe. Thanks for the good report on HC.
We are 18 months from the election. IIRC, 18 months before the 2008 election, the only question being asked was, “Who will win — Hillary or Rudy?”
ELC:
Jonah Goldberg’s book “Liberal Fascism” was published in early 2008. He had an entire chapter about Hillary Clinton, but Obama was only mentioned a couple of times in the whole book.
“it’s clear that Obama’s role was relatively small.”
That was well displayed in that well circulated photo in the situation room. Zero The Hero was obviously cowering in a chair sitting in the corner, not at the table and not in control.
Still in waaay over his head.
Do conservatives even bother to answer telephone polls anymore?
I don’t, and I’ll tell you why.
In the runup to the midterms, I was swamped, and I mean swamped with telephone push polls. At first, I took the calls and answered the polls, but about five minutes into the poll it became increasingly obvious that the only purpose of the poll was to plant negative messages about the Republican candidates.
Still, I answered honestly. Until after one “poll”, after I gave a honest set of answers — yes, I was voting Republican, the “poll” taker asked me:
“Just for our records, is this John we are speaking to?”
At that point I hung up and no longer answer polls. I have no way of knowing if I am being honestly polled, or if someone is building a political database.
I wonder just how many Republicans and conservatives are so completely disgusted by the onslaught of dishonest, vicious push polls that they are simply not answering the polls anymore. If this is a trend, it would help explain the increasing divergence of the polls from reality.
Not all the college students are on board with The Won.
Presenting this for your delectation: an old lefty tries to burn an American flag in a formal protest on the LSU campus.
Pushback ensues. Of the soul-stirring sort:
http://preview.tinyurl.com/3zwwdme
Enjoy! and remember, these kids are our future, too.
And, Rachelle, I will vote for a three-legged, rat-tailed, toothless old yaller dawg before I’ll vote for Obah-mah.
I like Herman Cain, too. AND I still like the Divine Sarah. 😉
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If this is a trend, it would help explain the increasing divergence of the polls from reality. Yes, indeed. Whatever accuracy a poll may have representing the ideas of a larger population depend s a lot on the degree to which it is a genuinely random sampling of a genuinely representative sample population. The higher the degree of “self-selection” — that is, the more people “opt out”, the more people choose to participate — the less likely the results are genuinely representative.
Obama must be defeated. His czars must be defunded.
AT, today, has an excellent piece which posits that “The core problem is that the GOP is a philosophically schizoid entity.”
There are two basic personalities: RINO’s and the tea party. The field of RINO’s are distasteful but they have the connections and the name recognition.
The tea party candidates are great, but mostly young and people generally want a lot of experience which paradoxically rules out most tea party candidates. Think Palin, West, and Rubio. And of course, Palin has been branded as finished before she starts. Then there’s Bolton but he hasn’t declared yet. That still leaves Cain and Santorum and Johnson. The attacks against Cain will be coming: Ex-Fed, affirmative action supporter, TARP supporter.
So there’s no one best candidate, but it’s still good to state, I’ll vote Romney if I have too. Pawlenty. Huckabee. Sure. Better than Obama.
Whoever gets the nomination needs our support and vote.
Obama getting Osama is exciting the wacky left the same way that Kerry’s Vietnam service got them excited. They are so devoid of any military gravitas that anything that even superficially looks like it gets them in a frenzy.
I’m really not worried. Obama rarely gets more than 46-48% approval, and most likely, he won’t climb much higher. Also, the left-leaning press has been out of touch with the conservatives + the middle-wing people since 2007.
For example, the press seemed to blame Bin Laden on the U.S./or anyone who was not the Dems/the left, or the murderer, Bin Laden, for years, then when B.L. was killed in a capture or kill military raid, 99% of the country cheered or was relieved.
The left and the press were [completely wrong] about America’s feelings about Bin Laden the mass murderer.
And, come the 2012 election, the press might back the wrong man, Obama, while America elects someone other than the hack, Obama, for President.
Somewhat off topic, but note this recent post by Jim Geraghty regarding the Democrats and natl security. IMHO he’s spot on, and it goes to TR’s comment about the (liberal) press backing the wrong man.
To amplify on my comment above about keeping the faith. In the upcoming election think about this:
With tremendous political and media wind at his back Obama only won by 6 % (53% to 47%. I incorrectly said 7% above). Now of that 47% who did not vote for Obama when he had no record, just how many voters do we think have decided to crossover an vote for him based upon his current record? I’d say none, but in reality lets assume ~2%. Further, of the 53% who voted for Obama in the last election, just how many do we thing he’s alienated based on his performance over the past 2 1/2 years?
Subtract those two numbers and this is the real target of the campaign. I suggest that the Dems have an incredibly difficult uphill battle for the White House in 2012, especially since Obama seems to be doing everything he can to alienate even the staunch members of his base (like the police unions).
This supposition is based upon current conditins on the ground and certainly doesn’t take into account any “black swans.” Currently, though, IMO a black swan is more likely to be detrimental than helpful to Obama since they usually require quick action, and Obama has proven himself to be unable to make quick decisions when they’re needed most.
Sorry,
forgot the link to the Geraghty post. here it is:
http://www.nationalreview.com/campaign-spot/266749/sure-democrats-are-hawkish-only-if-they-call-shots
In war numbers are important. But only incidentally compared to tactics, the will to fight, morale, and leadership.
You don’t Congratulate Ronald McDonald for the hamburger you ate. Succinctly, it’s the cook who get the credit…not the clown