May 24th, 2011

More on that Republican field vs. Obama

So now Giuliani is thinking about entering the race.

Forgive me if I yawn; another big ho-hum. Giuliani’s time was last time, and he lost momentum, partly because he just didn’t seem to want it. If he enters now, it’s an afterthought.

It strikes me that Obama is exceptionally lucky in his opponents. There is no question in my mind that he would be extremely vulnerable in 2012 to a strong candidate, but it’s not at all certain that such a candidate will enter the fray. This has been Obama’s pattern for his entire political career, with a single exception (the only election he ever lost): the primary in which he ran against the popular US Congressman Bobby Rush and was roundly defeated. As Bobby Rush said:

He was blinded by his ambition…Obama has never suffered from a lack of believing that he can accomplish whatever it is he decides to try. Obama believes in Obama.

Yes.

It was the first and only time (except for the presidential race of 2008) that Obama had a bona fide opponent. In his earlier primary race (the Democratic primaries are the real battle in the Chicago districts where Obama first cut his political teeth) he managed to use legal shenanigans to disqualify the entire field and ran unopposed (see this if you’re unfamiliar with the story—it’s a lulu). After the Rush interlude, from which Obama learned how vulnerable he could be, his opponents in his Senate campaign (both Republican and Democrat) mysteriously collapsed in response to the unveiling of previously-sealed records that showed their private lives in a bad light.

I’ve written about this phenomenon previously, but it bears repeating:

…[I]t later came out that Obama’s campaign was directly involved in what the press did to torpedo Hull’s chances (and lest you accuse me of right-wing extremism, please note that the link and quote is from the NY Times):

[Obama's campaign manager] Axelrod is known for operating in this gray area, part idealist, part hired muscle. It is difficult to discuss Axelrod in certain circles in Chicago without the matter of the Blair Hull divorce papers coming up. As the 2004 Senate primary neared, it was clear that it was a contest between two people: the millionaire liberal, Hull, who was leading in the polls, and Obama, who had built an impressive grass-roots campaign. About a month before the vote, The Chicago Tribune revealed, near the bottom of a long profile of Hull, that during a divorce proceeding, Hull’s second wife filed for an order of protection. In the following few days, the matter erupted into a full-fledged scandal that ended up destroying the Hull campaign and handing Obama an easy primary victory. The Tribune reporter who wrote the original piece later acknowledged in print that the Obama camp had “worked aggressively behind the scenes” to push the story. But there are those in Chicago who believe that Axelrod had an even more significant role — that he leaked the initial story.

And then there’s the matter of Obama’s next opponent, Jack Ryan, to whom the same thing happened. I must be careful here; there is documentation that Obama’s staff pushed and promoted the Hull revelations by the press, but there is no evidence so far of the same involvement occurring with the Ryan outing. However, unless it’s a strange coincidence (always a possibility), it is mighty suspicious; Obama’s staff certainly had the tools, the connections, the motivation, and the experience.

Here’s a discussion of Axelrod’s modus operandi, which may sound familiar:

What kind of campaign can we expect from Axelrod in the general election? Overtly positive themes and public posturing complemented by covertly delievered and mercilessly negative “stiletto” attacks against key people around John McCain that are not directly traceable to Axelrod. The model for this strategy is the previous Obama senatorial campaign in Illinois, where Obama’s two most formidible, centimillionaire, rivals, Democrat Blair Hull and Republican Jack Ryan were personally destroyed in the primaries when salacious details from their sealed divorce records were mysteriously leaked to the media, which then pressured for their full release, notably in the pages of the Chicago Tribune.

So Obama’s previous good luck seems to have been some combination of dirty tricks on his part and actual good luck. It’s unclear what the ratio of the first to the second was; suffice to say there was a goodly amount of each.

Which brings us to the present. The relative weakness of the Republican field may be an accident. Or it may be fear of the smear machine keeping the stronger candidates away. Everyone has something in his or her past that could lead to trouble if the harsh and partisan spotlight of the media were turned on it. But Obama, who’s got plenty of skeletons in his closet, feels immune. He knows the MSM has always covered for him, doing the opposite of what it does to his opponents.

Get ready, folks. It’s going to be a bumpy ride.

39 Responses to “More on that Republican field vs. Obama”

  1. Wolla Dalbo Says:

    It has always been curious to me that all of these supposedly “sealed,” private, and secure documents somehow mysteriously just leak out, and are then used against politicians, and overwhelmingly against Republicans yet, in general, nowhere near as many such incidents befall Democrats.

    Beside the incidents you bring up, I am reminded of how the VA medical records of Democratic VP candidate Eagleton somehow made it out of the secure vaults of the government and into the hands of the McGovern campaign, destroying Eagleton’s candidacy.

    To my knowledge, no one was ever charged with this gross and serious violation of his privacy and the regulations regarding government records, and the privacy laws; an incident that should have sent chills down the spines of tens of millions of other veterans for, if they could do it to Eagleton they can do it to anybody.

    There were all sorts of people digging for dirt in government records pertaining to Bush, but Bush just released the records.

    Now, today, we have the example of the tight control that has been exercised over Obama’s entire paper back trail, and in the case of the people who supposedly tried to get a look at Obama’s passport and college /scholarship records, all were apparently tracked down, were prosecuted and tried, and are now, I guess, awaiting sentencing.

    In these last, most recent Obama cases I note, too, the curious fact that none of these cases has produced any statements by any of those charged about what they found in those documents–no statements to the effect that there was nothing there, no statements that they found some significant information–just silence–not even a leak to the Enquirer or on the Internet. From this I have to believe that some very strong threats were made to each one of the accused sufficient to shut each and every one of them up.

    Perhaps someone just sidled up and whispered “Vince Foster” in each one of their ears.

    ohing of the osrt happens to Democrats.

  2. Wolla Dalbo Says:

    Sorry for the last fragmentary line which should have been edited out.

  3. Gringo Says:

    Giuliani entering the race? Where the F was he three-four years ago? He made an indifferent, lackadaisical effort in the 2008 campaign. He was my first choice. Four years later? Won’t get fooled again.

    Were the nomination handed to him on a silver platter, he would take it, but I doubt he would make much effort otherwise.

  4. Roy Lofquist Says:

    Weak field? It’s 9 months until Iowa. I am sure we will see more entries. Those in now are basking in the attention. No need to announce until September. Let Obama and the media attack the current announced candidates. Does two things – get a line on the D strategy and expose the public to the viciousness we will see this time around.

  5. Richard Aubrey Says:

    I don’t know about a weak field this time around. Either you vote for Obama or you vote against him.
    Is it possible that the undecideds could see a republican, any republican, as worse than Obama?
    I understand that the media will lie like rugs about any repub candidate, but I can’t see any combination of lies that would make the repub candidate look worse than Obama.

  6. Wolla Dalbo Says:

    Now, as if we did not have enough problems, I am convinced that Obama is also on drugs after reading today that he signed the Westminster Abby Guest Book with the date 2008 instead of 2011.

    I mean, who in their right mind makes a mistake like this, 2010 yes, but 2008?

    In the past we had Obama’s 57 state “mistake,” a mistake that would have been used to sink any Republican candidate–Dan Quayle’s “potatoe” anyone, and now this.

    The guy–who said he used drugs in college–is on drugs now or he has early onset Alzheimers.

  7. daxypoo Says:

    how dare rudy g enter the race

    that putz could have been president if he had some intestinal fortitude 4 years ago

    talk about a “day late and a dollar short…”

  8. texexec Says:

    Walla Dalbo:

    I’m convinced that The Chosen One simply has no head for numbers…especially economic ones.

  9. Artfldgr Says:

    I guess them all throwing in to divide the votes and insure outcomes are socially engineered has nothing to do with the new war powers they are working for the O to have.

    and really…

    Is Giuliani more important than the expiration of the war powers act?

    Anyone other than i realize what it really means if they dont call him to the mat on that, and then grant him some really extreme powers to act in a war capacity.

  10. I R A Darth Aggie Says:

    There is no question in my mind that he would be extremely vulnerable in 2012 to a strong candidate, but it’s not at all certain that such a candidate will enter the fray.

    Rarely a strong candidate just enters the fray. It is the fray that strengthens the candidate (generally).

    For instance, Charlie Crist at one point was the strong candidate to win a Senate seat in Florida. Marco Rubio was just some guy. Granted, a guy who was a former speaker of the Florida House and had some name recognition, but didn’t have the support of the national or state GOP groups.

    But a funny thing happened on the way to the August 2010 primary…

    The race does not always go to the swift, nor the fight to the strong.

  11. br549 Says:

    You know, if I were at “work” and there was a disaster at “home”, I wouldn’t wait until Sunday to go home. Just sayin’.

  12. turfmann Says:

    I’ll say what br549 is politely couching…

    Any American president worth his salt would have seen those photographs, read the stories, watched the videos of Joplin (and by the looks of the Weather Channel right now it won’t be alone) and offered his regrets to his hosts and hopped aboard AF1 bound for Missouri.

    And to hell with the concerns of the Secret Service. Just give him a pair of blue jeans, a tee shirt, and a pair of gloves. Show some leadership, show some compassion!

    As it is, he waits until after Benjamin Netanyahu makes mention of the disaster before making a public comment on it.

  13. Mr. Frank Says:

    An awful lot of Obama voters are uneducated, not very bright, or immature. It is going to be hard to peel them off from the magic, even with a solid candidate. The only way he gets beat is if the economy is really in the crapper.

  14. Wolla Dalbo Says:

    In the middle of watching Netanyahu’s peach to a joint session of Congress. Now that is how a real leader speaks. Netanyahu’s speech and his delivery shows up Obama very clearly for the street hustler and poseur that Obama is.

    Obama has got his “act” and that is all: all surface, all flash–and flash that is wearing thinner and thinner by the moment and is about to disappear, thus, the frantic work by his MSM to declare his potential Republican challengers as “unelectable” and weak.

    As we have seen from his pictures, Obama is the supposedly “cool” guy in the pimp hat smoking a cigaret, a fraud with no class and definitely a “cold fish.” There is no “there” there.

  15. Gary Says:

    “The reality is”! Swaaawwk, “The reality is”! Awwwwk!”

    Rudy wants a cracker ! “The reality is!” Awwwwk !

    “The reality is! ! Awwwwwk, ” I’d goes nuts “!

  16. Curtis Says:

    It will most likely be Obama’s pride which is his downfall. You can bet he is smarting from the reception Netanyahu received in Congress compared to what he receives. This rankles Obama and prepares him for a disaster. As Neo points out, so far, Obama has been lucky in his opponents. Almost as if he were born under a guiding star.

    But luck is not a trustworthy friend.

  17. DNW Says:

    Since you are a neo-neocon, and are presumably still on speaking terms with some of your former associates, what’s their take on the generally fawning, collaborationist media coverage of Obama?

    That it is entirely proper? Or that it is an illusion because …

    “Faux News” and Drudge give him more than enough grief; that the left bloggers have criticized him for walking in George Bush’s war on terror footsteps; that he has lost Cindy Sheehan; and that his Press Room spokesman has come in for some ridicule.

  18. Curtis Says:

    Here’s one to scrunch your shoulders together and rub hands vigorously for: Palin debating Obama and whenever he asks about something in her past she replies “Well, how about I reply to that after you release your education records. I mean I’ve been vetted to the max but somehow you seem to have escaped the same attention I’ve gone through. How about it, Mr. President. Can we, for starters, see your education records and then go from there?”

  19. Artfldgr Says:

    good thing he isnt running for office in UK

    Obama can’t stand Britain (his wife likes us even less): he made that clear enough when he sent back Winston Churchill’s bust and dissed our Prime Minister with those dodgy DVDS. He blames us for what happened to his grandfather during Mau Mau. He doesn’t believe in the Special Relationship. Are we honestly supposed to believe in that during the subsequent year in office, Obama has since acquired such wisdom and insight that he suddenly realises how special we are?

    Of course he hasn’t. Obama is just doing now what all bullies and losers start doing when they realise how unpopular they are and that everyone is abandoning them. They suck up to anybody and everybody. They whore themselves piteously before enemies they once considered beneath their contempt. Fain will they fill their bellies with husks that swine eat — but which no man will give them: and serve them jolly well right, too!

    By all means let us enjoy watching Obama smarm and grovel and ingratiate himself like some presidential Uriah Heep. But for heaven’s sake let us never give him the benefit of the doubt. He’s a cold fish and would certainly never show any mercy towards us were the roles to be reversed.

    i guess in coming strife and times, when we will need support, we will stand alone as a nation divided from the world, and internally

  20. Parker Says:

    I’m not going along with the idea that the present republican field is weak. As Mr. Frank notes, the economy is the primary issue right here, right now and it will remain front & center come 11/2012.

    After Obama, do the American people want to re-elect the ‘savior’ or install another ‘savior’ in the oval office? I think they want answers. They want someone who projects confidence, provides readily understandable solutions to turn the economy around and reverse the debt/deficit crisis, and has a track record that demonstrates he/she can walk the walk. The candidate who can do these things is the nominee who can defeat BHO.

    The key to Obama’s victory is the republican country club establishment. If the establishment has its way a milk toast, “lets reach across the aisle and be bipartisan” candidate will gain the nomination. Republican primary voters need to flock to a candidate(s) who is not endorsed by the establishment nor given faux accolades by the MSM. Speak in a loud voice and carry a very big stick is the way to win. This is now or never time. Take the gloves off GOP.

  21. Francesca Says:

    Every time I have seen and heard Bibi this past week, I have felt so envious of Israel. The leader of Israel is a real leader, a real man. Where is OUR Netanyahu?

  22. Steve Ducharme Says:

    Make no mistake. This election will be more of referendum on Obama than an affirmation of the republican. A strong candidate would be nice but not really necessary. He didn’t win the last election by anything approaching a landslide and that was against a pitiful McCain. This time round the margins that put him over the top are going to be staying home. The youth vote and minorities are no longer energized or motivated to action by him or his “soaring” speeches. They’re unemployed and broke like the rest of us. Worse than the rest of us actually. . The opposition however is enraged. It’s almost a case of the more boring the candidate the better for the Republicans. Flash might be bad. Nobody on the right is staying home come November 2012. Even if a muppet is nominated they’ll turn out. The left… I wouldn’t count on it.

  23. Wolla Dalbo Says:

    Things have finally crystallized for me. Obama is just a punk.

    The kind of loud-mouthed, boastful street punk that are a dime a dozen in any big city, except Obama has had coaches, handlers, and promoters, has been dressed in the mantle of the Ivy League–no matter if that mantle was spurious and is undeserved–and this and his gift for oratory–and a lot of telepromptering and staging and worshipful “Ohs” and “Ahs” from the Left’s captive MSM has made him a “star” and has gotten him elected.

    But, as we have discovered, he is a hollow man, all flash and no substance.; a man increasingly walking a tightrope, without a balance beam or any knowledge or skill at all and teetering on the edge of disaster.

    Here’s hoping we can hold together until 2012 and then–if we can overcome what promises to be major election fraud–we can dump him and his whole repellant crew in the garbage dump of history, where they belong.

  24. Parker Says:

    “This election will be more of referendum on Obama than an affirmation of the republican. A strong candidate would be nice but not really necessary. He didn’t win the last election by anything approaching a landslide and that was against a pitiful McCain. This time round the margins that put him over the top are going to be staying home.”

    I think this is an accurate assessment for the most part. However, I do believe a strong candidate is a prerequisite to victory. For example: I don’t think Newt or Rudy can do the job.

  25. evy Says:

    I’m not sure that luck has much to do with it. Witness the current GOP Civil War. Witness what just happened in Western NY. The guy is basically handing them shovels, standing back, and watching them dig. The whiny progressives are screaming that Obama is so weak, he gives too much, wha wha wha, I want my public option, he sold us out, yada yada. It’s becoming clear to me that they guy is willing to take some serious punches, let his opponents think they are winning, and then smile as they over-reach. It is absolutely un-friggin-believable how many of his opponents seem to self destruct. It can’t be coincidental-it happens all.the.time. Notice that his first race was the only one he lost. He learned something. Something. Damned if I can say what it is, but he knows.

  26. RandomThoughts Says:

    Along the lines of Obama as a hollow man, all flash and no substance.; a man increasingly walking a tightrope, without a balance beam or any knowledge or skill at all and teetering on the edge of disaster, it has become blindingly obvious that he is little more than a puppet president. I am most concerned about those who put him where he is, and who exert their control from behind the scenes.

    I have no doubt that such people (Soros, for one) will do anything to continue to have their puppet in the White House. 2012 is certain to be an ugly election indeed.

  27. Gary Rosen Says:

    neo, in a way your post here helps make a better case for Palin. After all what revelations about her can they expose that they already haven’t tried to expose, or, in most cases, just make up?

  28. coco Says:

    Rudy lost the first time he ran for mayor of NYC. The man who won was David Dinkins, the first black mayor of NYC. All was not well in Gotham during Dinkins’ tenure. As a matter of fact, things were miserable. Rudy tried again…and won. The rest is history. Are there some parallels here, or is it just me? Right now, I’m voting ABO, Anybody But Obama.

  29. SteveH Says:

    “”I am most concerned about those who put him where he is, and who exert their control from behind the scenes.”"
    Random Thoughts

    They aren’t behind the scenes. It’s your neighbor, your in laws, your mechanic and the friendly cashier at the grocery store. And what most of them have in common is a distinct inability to emotionally handle being surrounded by people more successful than themselves.

  30. Wolla Dalbo Says:

    SteveH–I must admit it does seem like a coalition of the something for nothing/slacker crowd joined with the unthinking, easily duped do-gooder/politically correct/bumper sticker crowd–all orchestrated by the Left–that elected Obama.

    The fact that a reported 44 million people are now on food stamps, and that 50% of people now effectively pay no state or local taxes is perilous news for our Republic, since many of these people–with no skin in the game if the game means they lose the government handouts they now receive–will not accept hard work, sacrifice, and austerity as a platform.

    Meanwhile, our society descends ever downward into stupidity and decadence. Most recent case in point, the 350 pound, 30 year old “adult baby” who lives in an oversize crib and is fed bottles and has his diaper changed by his female room mate and substitute “mother”–both supported in this “”lifestyle” by SSI payments.

    The “adult baby” runs a business from his crib, has a website devoted to not pissing in your crib, and says that if his SSI payments are withdrawn he will “kill himself” (http://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2011/may/17/senator-questions-benefits-to-adult-baby/) .

    Your tax dollars at work, folks!

  31. Bob from Virginia Says:

    I’m afraid Wolla Dalbo has a point. The recent New York congressional elections and private conversations indicate the Dems can frighten the sheeple into thinking budget austerity translates into ending medicare and social security. With the boomer population at death’s door this creates an easily malleable voting block. Even Rasmussen has Obama improving in the polls. From here it looks like Obama will be re-elected. Sad, but at this point I wonder if the public is too dim to learn under any circumstances.

  32. Curtis Says:

    It’s New York. I don’t buy, for a New York minute, that the same is true, except in California, Oregon, Washington, Michigan . . .

  33. uncleFred Says:

    What NY-26 tells us is that the TEA party lost control of it’s brand and a Dem used it to syphon off a chunk of voters. It also tells us that the GOP GOTV effort in NY-26 was a disaster in a special election.

    The Republicans have stumbled delivering the message on medicare and social security. Ryan is already stepping up to this. If the rest of the Republicans including the eventual nominee, Democrat demagoguery on these issues will blow up in their faces.

    As for polls shifting. With the “Direction of the Country” 64% wrong direction and 29% right direction I’d say Obama is vulnerable.

  34. uncleFred Says:

    Sorry previous should have read
    “If the rest of the Republicans including the eventual nominee, follow suit and maintain message discipline, Democrat demagoguery on these issues will blow up in their faces.”

  35. Bob from Virginia Says:

    Wolla Dalbo, I have to disagree that Obama is hollow. His actions are clearly geared towards undermining the US. Since the US is the best thing in history this makes him genuinely evil. In fact the success he has had so far should paint him as one of the most evil leaders in history. Not as bloody as Hitler or Stalin, but only because there are institutions to prevent it. But clearly a psychopath.

    If he does, g-d forbid, get re-elected, we’ll have this consolation, trauma causes people to change habits and we all can predict the result of a second Obama administration.

    BTW where does the name Wolla Dalbo come from?

  36. expat Says:

    Rudy shouldn’t be trying for the nomination. He should be backing someone on the campaign trail and pointing out Obama’s faults WRT foreign policy, domestic security, and Holder.

  37. Roy Lofquist Says:

    Parker,

    This is not in any way a criticism. You used the term “milk toast”. I’ve seen that a bit around the web. Actually, it is “Milquetoast”. It derives from a cartoon character, Casper Milquetoast, in a 1924 comic strip called “The Timid Soul”.

    Again, no criticism. Just a random bleat from an old man who doesn’t much like some changes in the language.

    Roy

  38. Parker Says:

    Roy L,

    Thanks… at the time I couldn’t remember how to spell it so I went with phonetics. BTW, I have thick skin so any and everyone is welcome to correct me or show me how my thought process is in error. I’m used to being knocked down and thrown around, so far I’ve always managed to get back up. Pride is for the thin skinned. :-)

  39. Wolla Dalbo Says:

    Bob from Virginia–Wolla Dalbo was a very early settler in Salem County, N.J., first appearing in documents around 1650 or so.

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Previously a lifelong Democrat, born in New York and living in New England, surrounded by liberals on all sides, I've found myself slowly but surely leaving the fold and becoming that dread thing: a neocon.
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