August 29th, 2011

Obama approval at 38% in Gallup poll

As Obama’s Gallup approval hits 38, Allahpundit quips that he’s one golf photo away from the magical Bushian 35 percent mark.

Ouch.

Take a look at this chart (sorry; I can’t seem to upload it here) tracking the ups and downs for Obama during his term as president. You will note that in early July an unprecedented decline began for Obama. As Allah points out, it’s the economy (stupid). It’s been in the dumps too long, with no end in sight.

Many of Obama’s former supporters have given up hoping that things will change, and/or trusting that Obama knows what he’s doing on that score. Some of the recent decline in Obama’s popularity seems to be from liberals who hate Republicans even more. I’d say that the most Obama’s opposition can hope for from them is that they stay home on election day 2012.

[ADDENDUM: I just noticed that, with this article, the number of posts on this blog tagged "Obama" has reached 736. I need to get out more.]

33 Responses to “Obama approval at 38% in Gallup poll”

  1. RandomThoughts Says:

    Some of the recent decline in Obama’s popularity seems to be from liberals who hate Republicans even more. I’d say that the most Obama’s opposition can hope for from them is that they stay home on election day 2012.

    I seriously doubt the One can drum up the freakish level of voter enthusiasm he garnered in ’08. Nobody’s going to buy the Hope N Change rhetoric a second time around, especially given the sorry state of our economy and his remarkable lack of achievements thus far.

    Whether enough of his voters stay home to ensure a change of leadership is anyone’s guess though.

  2. gatorbait51 Says:

    I disagree. Some of my Obama loving colleagues have bought new knee pads to better worship Teleprompter Jesus

  3. IAPollyTicks Says:

    I’ve asked some of my friends who are staunch Obama supporters their opinion of what is going on right now and wether they’d support him in the next election.
    Mostly I hear that “Obama is getting blamed for what congress is (or isn’t) doing!” and they have every intention of voting for him in ’12.

  4. Artfldgr Says:

    1886 – Li Hung-Chang’s chef devised a tasty dish in New York City. It satisfied both American and Oriental tastes. The delicacy was called chop suey. Who was Li Hung-Chang, you ask? He was China’s Ambassador to the United States.

    1957 – Senator Strom Thurmond of South Carolina set a filibuster record in the U.S. Senate this day (and part of the previous day). He spoke for 24 hours and 18 minutes. Yakety yak!

    1991 – The Supreme Soviet, the parliament of the U.S.S.R., suspended all activities of the Communist Party, bringing an end to the party’s 75-year controlling regime in the Soviet Union.

    Birthdays

    Oliver Wendell Holmes
    Ingrid Bergman / also dies on 67th birthday as well
    Charlie (Charles Christopher) Parker Jr.
    Sir Richard Attenborough
    John McCain
    Elliott Gould (Goldstein)
    JamesBrady
    Robin Leach
    Michael Jackson

    I Walk the Line – Johnny Cash topped the charts in 1956

    The House of the Rising Sun – The Animals 1964

    Magic – Olivia Newton-John 1980

    August 29th 0284 Gen Gaius Aurelius V Diocletianus Jovius becomes emperor of Rome

    congratulations Gaius…

    Origin of Era of Diocletian (Martyrs)

    Emperor Karel deprives city Gent definitive rights/privileges 1540

    Kano Motonobu, Kyoto Japan, co-founder (Kano school of painting) born today…

    Bartholomeus Pitiscus, German mathematician (Trigonometry)

    today John the Baptist was beheaded…

    Louis II, King of Hungary/Bohemia, dies in accident at 20

    and

    Atahualpa, last Inca King of Peru, murdered by Spanish conquerors

    [how the south americans forget spain is a part of europe is beyond me...]

    English King Charles I signed a peace treaty with Scotland

    Swedish king Karel X Gustaaf occupies Warsaw

    English troops occupy Menorca & Sardinia

    Edmond Hoyle published his “Short Treatise” on the card game whist (securing his future name on all computerized card games… :) )

    England & France meet in war 1756

    Prussian Libya occupies Saxson: beginning 7 years War

    New Jersey Legislature forms 1st Indian reservation

    Americans withdraw from Manhattan to Westchester 1776

    Shay’s Rebellion in Springfield, Mass 1786

    Slaves in French colony of St Domingue (Haiti) freed (will obama comment? he is such a history expert..no?)

    Michael Faraday demonstrates 1st electric transformer

    Gr Britain & China sign Treaty of Nanking, ends Opium war 1842

    Self-governing windmill patented (Daniel Halladay) (who knew that his positive invention would be the modern day tulip craze? )

    2nd Battle of Bull Run (Manassas) begins
    Battle of Bull Run, VA (Manassas, Gainesville, Bristoe Station)

    US Bureau of Engraving & Printing begins operation

    Seismic sea waves created by Krakatoa eruption create a rise in English Channel 32 hrs after explosion

    Phillies Charlie Ferguson no-hits Providence 1-0

    NY gives a ticker tape parade to returning US Olympians from London

    AH Latham of France sets world airplane altitude record of 155 m 1909

    Pieter Cort Van de Linden forms Dutch govt

    4th day of Tannenberg: Russian Narev-army panics, Gen Martos caught

    Congress creates US Naval reserve

    Gen Von Hindenburg becomes German Chief of Staff

    US Congress accept Jones Act: Philippines independence

    German airship Graf Zeppelin ends a round-the-world flight

    International Anti-War Committee forms in Amsterdam

    United Cigar Stores shuts 800 shops (care to follow union history? White men union?)

    Chaim Weizmann informs England that Palestine Jews will fight in WW II

    German Einsatzkommando in Russia kills 1,469 Jewish children

    Denmark scuttles their warships so as not to be taken by Germany

    15,000 American troops liberating Paris march down Champs Elysees

    Anti German rebellion in Slovakia

    British liberate Hong Kong from Japan

    Gen MacArthur named Supreme Commander of Allied Powers in Japan

    USSR explodes its 1st atomic bomb 1949

    USSR explodes its 1st hydrogen bomb 1953

    Congress passes Civil Rights Act of 1957 (republicans or dems?)

    answer: Strom Thurmond (Sen-D-SC) ends 24 hr filibuster against civil rights

    could be why they wont mention it today either

    George Harrison joins Quarrymen (Lennon-McCartney-Best-Sutcliffe)

    US U-2 flight sees SAM launch pads in Cuba 1962

    Astronauts Cooper & Conrad complete 120 Earth orbits in Gemini 5

    Beatles last public concert (Candlestick Park, SF)

    1st US Open tennis match (Billie Jean King beats Dr Vija Vuskains)

    Democratics nominate Hubert H Humphrey for president (Chicago)

    Black Panthers confront cops in Phila (1 cop killed) 1970

    USSR performs underground nuclear test at Novaya Zemlya USSR 1974

    USSR performs nuclear test at Eastern Kazakh/Semipalitinsk USSR 1978

    Great Britain performs nuclear test at Nevada Test Site 1979

    NY Yank Don Baylor is hit by a pitch for a record 190th time

    Morocco king Hassan II signs unity treaty with Libya 1986

    Macy’s Tap-o-Mania sets Guiness record 1988

    USSR launches 3 cosmonauts (Valery Polyakav, 1 Afghan) to station Mir

    USSR suspends Communist Party activities 1991

    Actress Elke Sommer (52) weds

    Gregory King, English statistician (law of King), dies at 63

    Brigham Young, 2nd president of Mormon Church, dies

    Jan L G “Yvan” Doornik, Dutch resist fighter in France, executed at 36

    Maurice Charles mile Barlier, Fren resistance fighter, executed at 35

    J E Feenstra, Nazi military police commandant, executed

    Anissa Jones, actress (Buffy-Family Affair), ODs at 18 (she played Buffy in family affair… check out what happened to dick van dykes kid)

    Nahum Goldmann, pres Zionist World Organization, dies at 87

    Lee Marvin, actor (Cat Ballou, Gorky Park), dies in Tucson Ariz at 63

    Sandy, dog in the play Annie, dies at 16

    Dixie Dunbar, [Charlotte King], dies of heart attack at 72

    Mary Norton, children book author (Borrowers), dies at 88 (I liked the borrowers)

    Dorian Corey, actor (Paris is Burning), dies of AIDs at 56 [and LOTS of other composers as well this day]

    In Saint Petersburg, Russian scientist Alexander Stepanovich Popov demonstrates to the Russian Physical and Chemical Society his invention – the world’s first radio receiver. In the former Soviet Union the anniversary of this day is celebrated as Radio Day. 1895

    in the year 70 The Temple of Jerusalem burns after a nine-month Roman siege.

    1526 – Ottoman Suleiman the Magnificent crushes a Hungarian army under Lewis II at the Battle of Mohacs.

    1776 General George Washington retreats during the night from Long Island to New York City.

    U.S. airborne troops are landed in transport planes at Atsugi airfield, southwest of Tokyo, beginning the occupation of Japan.

    BORN TODAY – John Locke, philosopher of liberalism whose ideas influenced the American founding fathers, famous for his treatise An Essay Concerning Human Understanding.

    1521 – The Ottoman Turks capture Nándorfehérvár, now known as Belgrade.

    1655 – Warsaw falls without resistance to a small force under the command of Charles X Gustav of Sweden during The Deluge.

    1756 – Frederick the Great attacks Saxony, beginning the Seven Years’ War.

    1833 – The United Kingdom legislates the abolition of slavery in its empire.

    1871 – Emperor Meiji orders the Abolition of the han system and the establishment of prefectures as local centers of administration

    1898 – The Goodyear tire company is founded.

    1911 – Ishi, considered the last Native American to make contact with European Americans, emerges from the wilderness of northeastern California.

    1941 – Tallinn, the Capital of Estonia liberated from Soviet occupants.

    1943 – German-occupied Denmark scuttles most of its navy; Germany dissolves the Danish government.

    1944 – Slovak National Uprising takes place as 60,000 Slovak troops turn against the Nazis. did i mention that i am slovak and latvian…

    1970 – Chicano Moratorium against the Vietnam War, East Los Angeles, California. Police riot kills three people, including journalist Ruben Salazar.

    1997 – At least 98 villagers are killed by the Armed Islamic Group of Algeria GIA in the Rais massacre, Algeria.

    all that and you can only find to talk about a loser programmed by people around him to be a loser following social engineering games, and manipulated into a position he cant handle, for the benefit of WHOM?

    today the soviet union fell… but we talk about obama… why? nothing has changed from before the election!

  5. Artfldgr Says:

    ‘Zionist Envoy, Leave Egypt or Die,” Demonstrators Demand

    The Muslim Brotherhood threatens to kill Israel’s ambassador to Cairo if he does not leave the country.

    “All of Egypt is Hamas.”

    The Muslim Brotherhood has threatend to kill Israel’s ambassador to Cairo if he does not leave the country. The radical Muslim group has been leading daily protests at the Israeli embassy in Cairo, demanding the expulsion of the envoy and a break in relations between Egypt and Israel.

    Hundreds of demonstrators surrounded the embassy Monday as armored military and police officers prevented them from repeating Saturday night’s incident when rioters broke down the gate. One firebomb smashed through a front window of the embassy’s office.

    http://www.israelnationalnews.com/News/News.aspx/147102

    fancy that, effect follows cause, regardless of belief…

  6. Mr. Frank Says:

    I find it hard to understand how almost 40% of Americans think Obama is doing a good job. That must be an inflated number from blacks who would vote for Idi Amin and liberals trying to show they are not racists.

  7. Bob from Virginia Says:

    The Rasmussen polls tells a somewhat different tale, that is his popularity among registered voters has remained constant at about 45% for almost two years. And note these credulous saps are concentrated in states with above average electoral college votes. I hate to say this but he will probably be re-elected although he will lose the popular vote.

    It does not take a genius to see what the results of an Obama re-election would be. The good news is that results will be so devastating that even many of the Obama acolytes will have to confront reality, probably in the form of an empty wallet if not empty stomach.

  8. uncleFred Says:

    Bob the tale is not so different with Rasmussen. First of all despite the difference in approval both have a 55% disapproval rating. Second the Rasmussen poll distinguishes strength. Only 22%, just under half, strongly approve, while 41%, almost 75% strongly disapprove.

    There is little good news in either poll for Obama, and I suspect that as time goes on he will continue to slip.

  9. LAG Says:

    ADDENDUM: I just noticed that, with this article, the number of posts on this blog tagged “Obama” has reached 736. I need to get out more.

    neo, you’re just doing the work Americans no longer want to do themselves. Thanks for your service.

  10. SteveH Says:

    “”I find it hard to understand how almost 40% of Americans think Obama is doing a good job.”"
    Mr Frank

    They don’t. They simply know the truth indicts their horrible sense of judgement of Obama just 34 months ago.

  11. Curtis Says:

    Both gatorbait51 and IAPolly Ticks are correct. We have seen how the elites like Paul Krugman readily delve into absurdity to protect their past views and prognostications and worship of Obama. But can Obama reset the freakish support and excitement his machine generated earlier? Not likely.

    However, the focus should not be on grown people who do not change their views easily. The fight, as the progressives know, is won or lost programming children. That Obama’s failures don’t help him is axiomatic, and yet, given the successful number of hypnotized and desensitized zombies in our country, his failures do not guarantee a reversal of his fortune. We rely on a slim margin who can still be reached. This for the immediate future, but the real war has and always will be in the fight for setting the culture that inculcates our children.

  12. T Says:

    Mr. Frank,

    I understand what you’re saying (Obama’s popularity @ 1:48 pm above), but I submit that this is because you, I and people like us look at it from a different point of view. We want to see the economy invigorated; Obama and his ilk want to see it socialized.

    Read Karl’s (8/27 @ 9:39 AM) entry at Patterico’s Pontifications about Obama’s Imaginary Competency Crisis:

    http://patterico.com/

    In refuting Mort Zuckerman, Karl notes that Obama is doing exactly what a good progressive should be doing. The imaginary competency crisis is another variation of the old liberal saw: “it’s not that the theory is wrong , it just wasn’t executed properly,” (aka the stimulus would have worked if it had been bigger, the economy would be back on its feet already if not for ATMs, etc).

    I expect to see many on the left embrace this theme of Obama’s incompetency. By agreeing that Obama is incompetent, it deflects the blame from where it truly belongs, the lack of validity of socialistic theories as a governing/economic principles.

    It’s not that Obama is incompetent, it’s that the social theories he enacts are useless. The liberal’s song will be once we get rid of Obama, the incompetent, we can try Eurosocialism again; only this time we’ll do it right!

  13. T Says:

    Curtis,

    I agree, but such is a 30 year war. We also need to concentrate on tactically winning current battles to set the stage for that long-term change.

    On a similar note, a must read is Walter Russell Mead’s recent essay on Clarence Thomas. It speaks to the development of a SCOTUS frame of mind to support precisely what you are talking about here:

    http://blogs.the-american-interest.com/wrm/2011/08/28/new-blue-nightmare-clarence-thomas-and-the-amendment-of-doom/

    Enjoy!

  14. jon baker Says:

    Didn’t you guys get the memo from the MSM that the summer of 2010 was the “summer of recovery”? They told us over and over.
    We would be doing great if it were not for the Japanese disaster and if those white European nations would just spend more money on social programs.
    All this obviously was beyond Obama’s control!

  15. Curtis Says:

    Thanks T and this one is especially appropriate as I have had a running argument with an attorney friend who “wasn’t that impressed with Clarence Thomas.”

  16. Parker Says:

    BHO at this point is likely to win a majority of the states he took in 2008 but by smaller margins and the opposite will occur in the states where McCain won. I think this is what prompts Bob from Virginia to say, “And note these credulous saps are concentrated in states with above average electoral college votes. I hate to say this but he will probably be re-elected although he will lose the popular vote.”

    However, IMO given the likely state of the economy come October of 2012, BHO will find it difficult to take NH, VA, NC, FL, OH, IN, IA, and possibly WI & CO. So, I agree with Bob that BHO is not likely to win the popular vote but I also think that at best he can hope to squeak by in the Electoral College. Should that come to pass we can look forward to the MSM pundits and the Democrats lecturing us about the wisdom of the founders in creating the Electoral College.

    The enthusiasm of the base makes a big difference for both parties. The thrill is gone for many on the left. He’s going to need every penny of the hundreds of millions he plans to throw against the wall to make something stick in order to win.

    The Thrill is Gone: http://tinyurl.com/6qh63a

  17. Scott Says:

    Loved the Walter Russell Mead essay about Clarence Thomas, as well as the New Yorker piece by Jeffrey Toobin that inspired WRM’s essay. Both great reads.

  18. Jim Says:

    Okay, this might be a dumb question, and a bit off topic, but why do so many Republicans (on blogs/websites anyway) want Obama to be primaried? What purpose would that serve to the (R)s other than draining some of Obama’s funds? No matter who it was, Obama was almost assuredly defeat him/her, and with his devoted fans he’d be able to recoup donations pretty quickly.

    Now, a more liberal democrat running for a third party in the general (Howard Dean and Al Gore – I’m looking at you) would be a Godsend to the GOP. But I can’t see the real benefit of a primary. If I’m wrong, please let me know.

  19. Scott Says:

    Jim: The people who want Obama to be primaried are playing a numbers game. No sitting president in the past 50 years who has been primaried went on to win re-election (I don’t know the history prior to JFK and I’m too lazy to research it). But this is the history since JFK:

    1968 – President LBJ was primaried by McCarthy. LBJ ultimately dropped out and decided not to seek the nomination. This inspired Wallace to run as an Independent. When the dust settled, Humphrey won the Democratic nomination and both he and Wallace were defeated in the general election by Nixon.

    1976 – President Ford was primaried by Reagan. Ford won the nomination (barely), but lost to Carter in the general.

    1980 – President Carter was primaried by Ted Kennedy. Carter got the nomination but lost to Reagan in the general.

    1992 – President Papa Bush was primaried by Pat Buchanan, which inspired Perot to mount a third party campaign. Papa Bush won the Republican nomination but he and Perot lost to Clinton in the general.

    Neither Clinton nor Bush 43 were primaried and both won their re-elections.

    I’ve given this some thought and I think there are two reasons why a sitting president who is primaried usually loses the general.

    1) It shows the party is split and not fully supportive of the president. So if the party isn’t happy with it’s president, why should independents support him with their vote?

    2) Somewhat related, primaries can be ugly and when a member of your own party publicly attacks your policies during the primary campaign, it weakens the president in the eyes of the public. And as you point out, it drains the presidents finances to have to campaign and win primaries.

    Those are just my opinions. I’ve seen no data to support either conclusion.

    Eventually, some day, a sitting president will be primaried and go on to win the general election. But the historical record suggests the odds are strongly against a sitting president winning re-election if he gets primaried.

  20. Jim Says:

    Thanks for the history, Scott. It makes more sense now. And I certainly would enjoy seeing Obama get primaried.

    But I don’t like the strategy (not saying you agree with it) of waiting for Obama or the democrat party to implode that a lot of republicans want to adhere to. The rules has changed – about 98% of the media is behind the democrats and will throw any semblance of objectivity out the window in the general. Quite frankly, after 2008 I don’t have a lot of faith that the “independents” will see through it.

    In my opinion, we need a candidate who won’t wait or play the odds, but will try to destroy Obama (from a policy standpoint, of course) from the beginning to the end. Sarah, are you reading??? Thanks again, Scott.

  21. Richard Aubrey Says:

    “They don’t. They simply know the truth indicts their horrible sense of judgement of Obama just 34 months ago.”

    Steve H. Perfect. And the prospect of climbing down in front of friends whom they had reproached is not at all attractive. From which I imagine a cohort of voters who will not vote for zero, but who will insist on not discussing it at all.

  22. rickl Says:

    Richard Aubrey:
    Here’s an anecdotal data point.

    I have a few liberal friends (not as many as I used to) who voted for Obama. Back during the Bush administration, they would tell anti-Bush jokes and send anti-Bush chain e-mails. After Obama’s election, I lost all interest in discussing politics with them. I don’t bother sending them anti-Obama jokes.

    The interesting part is that I’m not hearing them bring up politics either.

  23. Parker Says:

    “The interesting part is that I’m not hearing them bring up politics either.”

    My few leftist acquaintances have also stopped talking about BHO. When I try to engage them in a conversation about his holiness and his accomplishments (snicker) they swiftly shift the subject to the weather or the state of the tomatoes in their gardens. The thrill is gone.

  24. NJcon Says:

    “The interesting part is that I’m not hearing them bring up politics either.”

    I’m experiencing the same thing here in NJ. Though, my leftist co-workers love to complain about and ridicule Christie but they are reluctant to do this around me. They know an open opportunity to talk about politics means I can point out the failures of Obama or the failings of past Democrat governors. It’s my goal to demoralize them enough that they won’t vote in 2012.

  25. Colin Says:

    I have to admit that I’m a bit surprised at how many seem to think Obama is going to manage to get another term. 2008 was a perfect storm for the left, virtually everything broke their way. Even so, Obama got a victory, not a landslide. Now those strengths are being undermined or flat turned around. Obama has a (bad) record to defend, his actions (or lack thereof) have angered his base. The economy is arguably worse off then it was when he took the reins, angering the middle. Meanwhile, the right is resurgent virtually everywhere. Residents of Martha’s Vineyard are hedging their opinions of Obama. Obama has virtually no arguments to make other then ‘the other guy is worse or crazy’, which is a weak hand to play. The left is starting to actually discuss potential primaries against him. Virtually the only thing holding his approval ratings up is the Black voting bloc, which seems far more about solidarity then actual enthusiasm.

    Obama is going to have a depressed base turnout from the progressives. The youth vote will likely evaporate into the standard apathy, he won’t be able to count on them. The unions are steadily weakening. Just how does he win with this? Unless the Republicans nominate a stuffed cabbage, I can’t see how they don’t win.

  26. Richard Aubrey Says:

    Colin.
    Two possibilities; the republicans nominate a stuffed cabbage. Some incredible campaign genius manages to distract enough swing voters from considering the real world.
    The unions are weakening but they may still have some money in the sock, and the folks they hire, or who volunteer, to do the campaign grunt work are still around. We don’t know how the average union guy will vote, or, for that matter, has voted.

  27. T Says:

    Colin and Richard Aubrey,

    Don’t discount a stuffed cabbage so quickly this year.

    I suggest that the real danger (for non-libs) in the 2012 election is not how many additional voters the Repubs pick up, but how they’re distributed. If the bulk of those votes are in states that are already red, then that doesn’t help the Repub candidate gain in the electoral college.

    On the other hand, based on current circumstances (given that anything could happen in 14 mos), I believe that Obama has already lost Ohio Pennsylvania and Florida.

  28. MT of Hollywood Says:

    ditto. my few remaining liberal friends will not talk about it, although one did manage two weeks ago to put me in the pool with the “racists who are giving him such a hard time.”

    I agree with “T” above who points out that if the admirers do default from their savior, they will attribute his failure to his own ineptitude rather than see that these policies of government control do not work. If you look at the growing liberal critique now you see that it is a critique of his lackluster leadership “style” and not his policies.

    the strata
    1- those who find him weak
    2 – those who find him beaten down by racists
    3 – those who irgnore it and close their eyes to “it all”
    4 – those who continue to say what a nice man he is – and smart!
    5 – those who actually like him and what he’s “done”, e.g., cars for clunkers, bailing out the banks, stimulus, um … oh, killing Bin Laden, um, oh yes, taking fewer vacations than Bush, etc.
    6 – some who still love him and call him he who will go down as one of the greatest presidents of all time

  29. Richard Aubrey Says:

    MT. As a matter of opinion, do you think those who use the “racist” accusation against those who oppose a zero policy really believe it themselves? Or is it the only thing they can think of that might get somebody to at least shut up?

  30. MT of Hollywood Says:

    well in this case, she believed it until it made her see that she had used it as a last refuge from truth. I gave her all my non racist credentials and my all my anti-lack-of-intelligence credentials. Then she backed off and admitted that she was not really “that impressed with him” either.

    by the way, that is when you can begin to wake them up from the burrows of their somnambulism because then you can say, “But a liberal who speaks against him is not a racist, right?”

    that’s when they really really really turn to why they can’t get their tomatoes to grow . . . but a crack has been made in the armor.

  31. T Says:

    Mt of Hollywood,

    And that crack in the liberal armor, however minor, is of utmost importance. For want of a nail, the shoe was lost. For want of the shoe, . . . .

  32. SteveH Says:

    Colin, i agree. There’s no way Obama wins any state he didn’t win by at least a 5% or maybe even 10% margin in 08. The media narrative of his viability is purely wishful thinking and an attempt to demoralize his opposition. Look for it to continue until election day.

    If we don’t get a genuine conservative elected this time we won’t ever have a better opportunity.

  33. T Says:

    Just out of curiosity, I went back to the 2008 Electoral College map (365 Obama, 173 McCain).

    I gave the 2012 Republican all of the McCain states and added FL (27), OH(20), PA(21), NM(5) with its Hispanic Republican female gov, IA(7), NC(15) and IN(11).

    This results in Obama 259 v Republican 279, and that’s still considering VA(13) and NV(5) tossups and giving the Dems MI, NY, all of New England, and the entire left coast.

    A caveat! I realize it’s way too early to do this and anything can happen in 14 months, but even this conservative appraisal tilts the electoral college to the Republican challenger at present.

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