September 13th, 2011

Follow the NY District 9 special elections…


The race is a close one. Republicans have framed this as a referendum on Obama, and although the Democratic candidate Welpin would ordinarily be highly favored to win, polls have shown him falling behind.

Israel is a particular issue in this election, since many of the district’s voters are Jews, and Orthodox Jews at that:

Orthodox Jews, who constitute a substantial chunk of the district’s electorate, seem particularly resistant to supporting Weprin, who is an observant Jew, against Turner, who is not Jewish but who never misses an opportunity to reiterate his support for Israel and raise doubts about Obama’s support for that country.

Whether the president’s political problems in the district stem primarily from the economy or the perception among observant Jews that he isn’t suitably supportive of Israel is a matter for some debate, but it really doesn’t matter to Weprin right now.

The Orthodox Jews of District 9 are not typical of the makeup of the Jewish vote around the country, of course, where they are more of a minority within a minority. Orthodox Jews tend to be more conservative politically in general than Conservative (the religious designation, that is), Reform, or secular Jews.

ADDENDUM: Here’s District 9:

The district went for Obama in 2008 by 11%. Granted, this is a special election, but it’s the first time a Republican has held the seat since 1923.

Even Weprin sought to distance himself from Obama, telling the Jewish Weekly that he would “probably” back him for reelection.

But Dov Hikind, a Democratic colleague of Weprin’s in the New York assembly who nonetheless endorsed Turner, suggested that the deciding factor in the race was the economy.

“People want to go back to work,” Hikind said. “They’re sick and tired of speeches.”

20 Responses to “Follow the NY District 9 special elections…”

  1. RS Says:

    A Jew who supports Obama reminds me of the capo of WW2.

    Idiot? Self-invested? Self-hatred?

    No… evil.

  2. neo-neocon Says:

    RS: you make a very poor comparison.

    Capos acted in collaboration with the enemy under threat of imminent death, in a death camp environment.

    Jews who vote for Obama are guilty of errors of judgment in believing he is acting in Israel’s best interests, or are secular Jews who do not see Israel as relevant to them.

    Hardly similar.

  3. effess Says:

    AP has called the race for Turner. With 75% of precincts reporting Turner is ahead 53% to 47%. The expectation is that margin will grow when all the Brookyn returns are in. There are forecasts of Turner’s victory margin going to 10+%.

  4. Kurt Says:

    I just read here that the AP has called NY 9 for Turner. You can see it at this link. The AP is also calling it for Republican Mark Amodei out here in Nevada District 2. Well, that’s all good to hear.

  5. neo-neocon Says:

    Obama is probably shaking in his shoes. At least, as much as his self-confidence allows. Obama won there by 11% in 2008.

    Turner becomes the first Republican to hold the Queens and Brooklyn-area seat since 1923

  6. effess Says:

    New York State will be in play in 2012.

  7. Ben David Says:

    Not nearly enough attention is being paid to Weprin’s sellout vote in the NY Assembly to legalize gay marriage – which enraged the Orthodox community much more than Obama’s well-known anti-Israel stance. For example, here is a widely-distributed broadside signed by many prominent Rabbis and educators that forbids support for Weprin:

    It is likely that another Dem candidate would have prevailed – there was a concerted effort to send a message to Weprin, or other traditional Jews who think they can compromise on gay rights votes.

    There will likely be more takedowns as the fallout of the gay-rights political grab in NY State.

    Of course, the MSM is downplaying this angle.

  8. Beverly Says:

    Last I saw, AP has Turner the winner by eight points. In a district that is 3/4 Democrat. In a race where he outspent the Republican 3 – 1.

    Well. That is a piece of news, and no mistake.

    In grimmer news: see Ace’s blog for Turkey’s latest bellicose move against Israel. They’re all worried this means war preparations by Turkey.

  9. Beverly Says:

    Wow, Ben David! that’s signed by a lot of rabbis! Good for them.

  10. JFM Says:

    The only good news for Obama these days is that Joe Biden is still Vice President, which makes calls for Obama’s resignation much less likely.

  11. DirtyJobsGuy Says:

    This is also a response to the NYC Democratic machine. Weprin was chosen for the district from a long time Democratic political family. In the past these guys would have been allowed to dissent from the party line to support their district issues (i.e. orthodox jews) but that is no longer the case on key liberal issues. So if you are being told who your congressman is and he cannot even support your basic views then a little rebellion is called for.

  12. texexec Says:

    For some time now, it has seemed to me that Orthodox Jews are the only Jews who seem to understand who their political friends are.

    Obama’s getting bad news everywhere…the Solyndra scandal, the Fast and Furious scandal, his sinking approval numbers everywhere (his ultra left core, independents, Hispanics, etc.), and the very negative reaction to his “I want this passed right now” jobs act.

    Chances are growing that we will be rid of this empty suit soon. Hopefully he’ll help turn the Senate red too.

  13. Curtis Says:

    It’s too late for Obama to triangulate even if he could or wanted to. Obama, in contrast to Clinton, doesn’t know anything besides his bromides. Obama never really studied and understood anything other than his own view of peculiar socialism. It is too late for his mind to become familiar with other ideas and he will not present anything but with which he is familiar.

    The avenue left to Democrats is full on Cloward Piven (Activists sabotage the welfare system; the collapse of the welfare state ignites a political and financial crisis). Democrats won’t be able to do it because there is just not enough machinery in their possession to actually seize and consolidate power even given a complete financial collapse.

    We are about to witness an implosion of the Democrat party, a break up of the empire and a naked struggle for survival.

  14. Mike Mc. Says:

    Curtis – I hope you are right. The next 14 months may be amazing ones, good and bad.

    A while back there was a question from Neo about whether Obama might lose his cool and go berserk. He might, or Dems might in the next year.

    It’s scary.

  15. uncleFred Says:

    The swing from 2008 to this election doesn’t tell the whole story. Weiner won by 20.6% in 2010, running against the Republican tide. Call it at least a 27% shift if not more. This is a massive shift in sentiment and about far more than just Israel. Only one in ten voters said that the were influenced by Israel, but a significant majority stated that there vote was influenced by Obama and his policies.

    Very bad news for the president and other the dems in general

  16. gs Says:

    1. texexec, if you haven’t done so, pls note that I replied to your last comment at Neo’s September 12 Perry post.

    2. Beverly@September 14th, 2011 at 4:47 am, maybe we are learning why most of the Turkish high command recently resigned. Here is the post you mentioned.

    Look, there is going to be a war. I’m not sure it’s avoidable. I’m not sure if I even care to avoid it.

    People are going to die, and I hope it’s the right people.

    I hope he’s wrong but I fear he’s right. Too much hate and craziness in too many places has been sustained for too long.

    Unfortunately, I suspect that Ace’s “a war” should be changed to “wars”.

    3. We have forgotten the costs of a serious war. The world’s savages, thugs and madmen don’t care.

    Nevertheless, knowing that the price may be higher than we expect, we must protect our interests.

  17. texexec Says:


    I saw your reply…thank you.

  18. Curtis Says:

    Erdogan is rattling sabers in his effort to become Islam man #1. His is an advanced taqiyya strategy as just evidenced by his remarks in Egypt that Turkey is really, after all, a secular society and Islam has always been ever so nice to all its minorities.

    What a crock, but, nonetheless, Erdogan is employing the soviet strategy which is no small wonder given Erdogan’s (and indeed nearly the whole world’s) courtship of Russia.

    On another note, it is hard not to be too ebullient over Turner’s victory. The Democrats poured money and manpower against Turner, but it didn’t work. Wisconsin tolled the tocsin bell and now it’s hell for the Democrat party. It can avail itself of neither money, ground troops or force. It has only one thing, selfish human nature, which, after a while, becomes rather tiresome.

  19. texexec Says:

    A bit off subject but not entirely:

    “Attack Watch, new Obama campaign site to ‘fight smears,’ becomes laughing stock of the Internet” – Washington Post

    Previously, I have pooh-poohed the idea that Obama could have an emotional breakdown but now, I’m beginning to wonder. This paranoia, his insistence on taking a fairly long vacation when so many crises were occurring (earthquakes, wildfires, hurricanes, flooding, etc.) and needing to work up a fresh approach to economic problems to be presented to a joint session of Congress, etc. makes me think it might be possible.

    New York Times journalists are reported to be seriously starting to talk about him perhaps having clinical depression.

    What’s your latest read on this, Neo?

  20. Promethea Says:

    I’ll say it again. Obama is an ignorant incompetent anti-American black-power-type socialist.

    If he’s also “clinically depressed,” then we’re a lucky people. If he were bi-polar, I’d be biting my nails.

    BTW, what ever happened to that nuclear football that presidents supposedly carry around all the time? Is it stored in a locker somewhere?

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Previously a lifelong Democrat, born in New York and living in New England, surrounded by liberals on all sides, I've found myself slowly but surely leaving the fold and becoming that dread thing: a neocon.

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