Is it in the bag for Romney?
There are so many articles floating around lately saying “Romney has the nomination all sewed up” that there’s hardly any need to link to them; if you do much reading about politics, you’ve already seen plenty (but, for the sake of example, here’s one and here’s another).
Some are from the left and some from the right, but the gist of them is that the fat lady is singing and Republicans may as well just close their eyes and think of England—or, in this case, America (and by the way, Queen Victoria got a bad rap on that one).
You won’t see me saying the same thing, however. Of course, if I were forced to bet money right now on the identity of the Republican nominee, I’d place it on Romney. He’s most likely—but hardly inevitable.
Iowa means little. It’s always been an atypical race, and New Hampshire isn’t far behind in its lack of representativeness, although in a very different way from Iowa (far fewer evangelicals, far less social conservatism, “maverick” qualities and small sample). But in the most recent data I can find from South Carolina, Gingrich leads Romney by a considerable amount. To a lesser extent, the same is true of Florida. Do they not matter?
But none of this is as persuasive in my mind as the simple fact that, if enough of the more conservative candidates were to drop out of the race and leave one strong “true conservative” candidate standing, the entire picture could change dramatically if this were done early enough. Romney’s support remains low in terms of percentage of the whole, and although it is likely that at least some of Gingrich’s and Santorum’s and Perry’s supporters (note that I omit Paul’s fanatically devoted followers) would go to Romney, my guess is that a greater number would go to the last non-Romney standing.
If may not happen that way, of course. For example, maybe no one will drop out except Bachmann, who’s already done so. Or maybe all their votes would go to Romney if they do.
But I don’t think the oft-repeated notion that because Romney has the most money he’ll be the inevitable vote-winner is correct. Money can help, but it can’t overcome much of the sort of antipathy many Republicans have towards Romney—and the most activist Republicans at that, who are most likely to take part in primaries.
This has nothing to do with my own personal preferences for nominee. As readers of this blog already know, I’m not averse to Romney or to his nomination, and at the moment he has a slight (emphasis on the slight) edge over the other candidates for me. But I’ve never seen him as the least bit inevitable, with his support levels holding steady in the 20s, and the degree of distrust for him so high.
[NOTE: I do not agree with Rush Limbaugh, however, that Obama and advisers would prefer Romney as candidate because they think he’s the weakest of the bunch. I believe that Obama is licking his chops at the entire field because all have significant weaknesses he could exploit.]
That. What a pathetic bunch. As things stand right now I don’t think any of them can beat Obama.
Intrade has Romney at 78.1% for the nomination, and Obama 51.3% for the election.
Nothing is done until it is done. All the blathersphere can do is confirm Romney is in the best position today. The “black swan” might be the proven distaste for Mitt. Does conventional wisdom apply when there’s an unconventionally unpopular frontrunner?
I agree with Limbaugh. Romney’s profile complements Obama’s strengths while muting his weaknesses. But I can also agree with neo, that Barry thinks the entire GOP field is weak. Obama himself is weak (but who will the emperor he is naked), so we’re looking for the smallest loser.
This then feeds into electability, which I reject. It is ex-post justification. If the factions actually form coalitions, they can persuade the electorate of almost anything. I see no candidate (on either side) who can coalesce the factions. So everyone is unelectable.
Oh yeah, Gov. Romney sure is weak. He is only tied with Obama
according to the latest poll. This after months of being picked at by other Republicans. With litle or nothing being directed at Obama.
So who is looking weak?
I think the Obama team doth protest too much, figuring that if Romney is who THEY want, those silly, contrarian Republicans will pick someone else.
Its too early to say Romney has wrapped up the nomination. I think FL on January 31 is the crucial primary. As far as a Romney vs. BHO contest is concerned, its going to be the economy stupid all over again. The candidate that can best address the public’s anxieties will win. And then there is always a chance of an ‘October surprise’ that sways voters toward a particular candidate. It will be an interesting year.
This after months of being picked at by other Republicans.
Really?
I’m thinking no. Now that they really are picking at him, he’s crying foul, and that it is hateful to attack Mitty.
If he thinks this is bad, wait till Teh Won starts flaying his flesh from his political bones, all to the cheers of the Make Believe Media.
If it is the economy (stupid), we’ll have Barry’s statistical manipulations showing a fragile but genuine recovery pitted against Romney’s bio as a 1%er.
Can either one connect with John Q. Voter?
Perot got 18.9% of the popular, despite suspending his campaign during crunch time and choosing the very weird Stockdale as VP. If there ever was a time for a third-party run, this is it.
I’m predicting a long primary because of the proportional rule. Until April (IIRC) the delegates in most states are portioned out according to the percentage of votes received. This encourages candidates to stay in the race longer much as Hillary did in the dem primary in 2008. Also, with the Internet candidates can raise money easier and get their message out for less money making it possible to stay in the race. Romney’s got the money, but Santorum and Gingrich can hang on for quite a while if they do well before April.
Here’s an interesting article about what’s happening in New Hampshire:
http://tinyurl.com/7ccnpre
Is Obama in trouble? I’m praying these tea leaves (yard signs) are good predictors.
http://theleastobviousanswer.blogspot.com/2012/01/vampiric-mitt-to-win-nh.html
I read somewhere today that Santorum went against DeMint’s stand on earmarks (Santorum was pro). If this is true and if it gets coverage, it could dampen conservative enthusiasm for him.
I’m also not sure how Newt’s attack on Romney will play out. Tossing out the bit about not owning a house in New Hampshire after you’ve spent half a million at Tiffany’s seems rather elite and nit picky to me. It’s up there with going on a cruise, having your whole staff bail out, and then criticizing VA for its onerous ballot laws. Isn’t that the kind of thing a staff should have been working on?
So much depends on media coverage, it’s really hard to say what will happen. I wish the infighting would subside and Obama would become the focus of our candidates.
Almost all of us are picking at nits. Nits are the eggs laid by scalp lice. We gotta stop. A gator’s got us by the ankle, dragging us into the water, and we’re picking at nits.
As to Rush, I’ve learned over 20 yrs to really respect him. I wonder if Neo can hear him in Boston; and if so, how much does she listen? The rest of y’all?
And media coverage? Rush calls the MSM the Ministry of Propaganda. Yup, and yup again.
Edit: Change gator to Kenyan croc.
I’m with Don Carlos.
Next summer when it is U.S. v. B.O., the entire library of B.O.’s promises, failures and weaknesses will be aired in ads over and over and then BAM! B.O. won’t know what hit him. It will be very nasty, since Axelrod is no slouch.
Everyone with short memories will then recall exactly how so many “smart” people made OneBigAssMistakeAmerica.