January 30th, 2012

Meanwhile, in the wider the world…

Syria is in an uproar. Sound familiar?

As with similar situations before, the rebels can easily be overpowered by the government, if their numbers don’t reach a critical mass, and if the army and police stay loyal to ruler Assad. Otherwise, all bets are off; there’s probably a limit to how far Russia will go to protect the rulers there.

Unlike Egypt, Syria is not an ally of ours; that may even be an understatement. So it’s easier to say that in the event of an overthrow in Syria, the replacement government probably won’t be much worse.

8 Responses to “Meanwhile, in the wider the world…”

  1. Mr. Frank Says:

    The key variable is how much sanctuary Turkey wants to provide the rebels and what Turkey wants to be the outcome.

  2. Perfected democrat Says:

    “… the replacement government probably won’t be much worse.”

    Without American boots on the ground, there’s no reason to think that it won’t get worse, unless you think Lebanon now is better than Lebanon before Christians weren’t essentially neutered, similar to everywhere else where muslims predominate. A little solidarity goes a long way, the muslims are slowly consolidating their strategic position to destroy Israel, the one goal they all share. Their Second Priority is to fight each other over tribal, Shiite, and Sunni dominance.

  3. Parker Says:

    The new caliphate approaches like a rough beast slouching towards Jerusalem.

  4. Curtis Says:

    Point 1: There are oppressed peoples there.

    Point 2: The oppressed peoples are banned communists and MB.

    Obama to the rescue!

    The only reason he hasn’t saved the peoples earlier is the obvious fact that it couldn’t be done on the cheap. And Russia and China, well, don’t want to offend them do we? But hey, election time is rolling around and it might look good to do a little sabre rattling especially for such a good cause.

  5. DirtyJobsGuy Says:

    There’s a sea change coming in the Arab world and it’s not the Arab spring. They real thing is that the temporary stranglehold on the rest of the world from Arab oil is ending. The oil producers will still have plenty of oil and money, but their political influence will wane. New Oil and gas discoveries around the world reduce the influence of the Arabs. Nw Syria is not an oil producer but is a client. The oil cash is needed for other things now.

    A strong USA with a firm leadership can reap big rewards in this environment.

  6. Gringo Says:

    As the current Syrian government is an ally for Iran and a supporter of Hezbollah, it is hard for me to imagine a worse government.

  7. Bob From Virginia Says:

    Gringo, don’t underestimate the Arabs.

  8. Bob From Virginia Says:

    BTW here are Prof. Rubin’s insights on Syria:
    http://pjmedia.com/barryrubin/2012/01/29/why-syrias-regime-is-surviving-a-revolution/

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Previously a lifelong Democrat, born in New York and living in New England, surrounded by liberals on all sides, I've found myself slowly but surely leaving the fold and becoming that dread thing: a neocon.
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