April 13th, 2012

Romney leads Obama in Fox poll

You might say, “So what?”

And I’d be inclined to agree with you. Polls, especially this far ahead of the game, are not all that meaningful.

But I’m still drawn to talking about them, because they can indicate trends. And they’re all we’ve got to measure public opinion, other than anecdotal evidence culled from our own small circle of personal observations.

So on that score I’ll note that the Fox News poll (already invalidated, in the eyes of Obamaphiles, by its source) from 4/9-11 has Romney leading Obama by two points—which is within the margin of error—among registered voters. It’s got a few more interesting findings, including the fact that the voters think Romney would be better on the economy.

But there’s a huge flaw in the poll that leapt out at me when I looked at the numbers: it doesn’t give the breakdown of Republicans and Democrats. What it does is ask the respondents whether they were more likely to vote (or had already voted) in the Democratic or Republican primaries. This year, voting in the Democratic primaries is pretty much a meaningless act, and not many people are bothering. The Republican primaries, on the other hand, have been hard-fought, and have been drawing many Independents and Democrats as well. Of those interviewed, 41% said they were more likely to vote in the Republican primaries and 35% the Democratic, but that certainly doesn’t mean that was the proportion of Republicans to Democrats in the poll. But without knowing the actual proportions, the poll is even more meaningless than most polls.

Sigh.

3 Responses to “Romney leads Obama in Fox poll”

  1. expat Says:

    How many people will look at the polling data, and how many will say Mitt might be the one to get rid of Obama? The headline may just be a tipping point for Romney resisters. I just hope no one sets up a circular firing squad over the veep choice.

  2. effess Says:

    The Ramussen Poll, beginning and ending one-day later than the Fox News Poll dates, has Romney up 48% to 44% over Obama. Also, the Rasmussen poll asked 1500 likely voters vs. 910 registered voters in the Fox News poll.

  3. NeoConScum Says:

    expat: I can’t see that circular firing squad at veep choice time happening. Mitt probaly won’t go with any of my personal top choices(Condi, David Petreaus, John Bolton…Sorry, my inner-neocon is showing..), but he’ll pick a good, solid, not-afraid-to-fight, smart-as-hell, highly experienced veep.

    The current horrific gutting of American Might must be stopped ASAP. Now, back to musings with my aforementioned Inner(and Outer)Neoconservative.. Bolton for State, Doug Feith or David Petraeus for Defense…aaahhhhhhhhhhh…(-:

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Previously a lifelong Democrat, born in New York and living in New England, surrounded by liberals on all sides, I've found myself slowly but surely leaving the fold and becoming that dread thing: a neocon.
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