From Datechguy, on the all-important question of party affiliation and turnout.
Comments
Interesting — 15 Comments
That analysis made my day. TY.
…I confess to being a bit less than chipper from events of the past week.
I do not confess…. 😉 The tide has turned. The under 30s are not going to turn out in zombie hordes for BHO in 2012 and some that do vote will vote R&R. Black and hispanic turn out will decrease by 2-3%. Jews for BHO (crucial in NY & FL) will drop 2-5%. Blue collar voters in OIHO, PA, WS, etc. will not rush to the polls eager to vote for BHO. This is the silent trend under the radar of the MSM.
R&R by 5%.
Neo,
I JUST saw this on Instapundit.
I feel so much better reading this. I don’t know how all polls including Fox News can have the race so close when I don’t feel the same buzz about Obama as when he first ran.
Nobody I know even wants to talk about him. They just say things such as, “I don’t pay much attention to politics”.
Well then don’t vote if you don’t pay attention!!!
Lordy. People who know nothing need to stop voting. Obama’s speech today in Ohio was petulent, and filled with one liners about making the middle class pay over $2,000 more. How can Obama not be called on the carpet for this BLATANT lying???
I would love somebody to step up and call him on it. Anybody. But the only people who he lets near him are boot lickers it seems.
Mitt Romney does not propose raising taxes on the middle class. The Wall Street Journal disavows that analysis.
Almost all of the polls are rigged, plain and simple. They all, including Rasmussen, make invalid assumptions based on past statistics.
When Romney wins decisively, they’ll dismiss the disparity between their ‘polls’ and the actual numbers by labeling it an ‘anomaly’.
The leftist/liberals accusation that anyone who demanded facts and statistics to back up their position was automatically a bigot was no surprise but perfectly illustrative of the mind-set.
Thats ok… the war isnt up and running yet…
and thats going to change the voting numbers in certain ways…
lets drag the neighbors into the block party,
cant have a conflagration and fulfill Engels without it, can ya?
and GM is finding out what power, telecomunications and energy sectors all know… that goverment is a tar baby, and once nationalized, they wont let go..
after all. they get the taxes on profits, and 27% of the profits too… why would they let go?
in fact, i bet a whole bunch are thinking… you know? large block minority ownership by the state has advantages… they get their taxes, and any profits too.. the company can write off 100% of the taxes, and yet, cant get around paying the dividends…
so i wouldnt be surprised if the geniuses are actually owners of a lot more a la QE and purchases to prop up the market.. (which is doing surprisingly well for a period of moribund growth, turmoil, and so on.. no? i thought it was an instrument of future forward looking investments?)
[its a smaller sect that has been giving a lot of grief in the country… and not representative of the whole. however, what they are yelling when burning is that the US should be destroyed like we destroy the flag]
but i also said china would heat up…
now. personally, i thought china taiwan
not china japan
and note how they are making sure obamas back is to the wall with an election. ie. he cant act as he might act otherwise.
i would say they been working and planning this all at once thing for a long while, after watching long enough to see what the weaknesses and tendencies in handling things are. and Obama is not a 23 things at once kind of guy…
8,786,049: Yet Another Record for Americans Collecting Disability… / 16 people working for each person collecting.
so i think that polls are less useful in this cycle..
there is going to be too much turmoil and so many things from so many angles.
though this stuff extermally has a way of freezing the discussion on internals. now its easy to avoid the economy, and so on… and romney may want to point out that, with such chaos, being unsound financially makes things worse…
and van jones gets his wish, we are connecting the gulag industry with the manufacturing industry
Two American companies lay off hundreds as military uniforms to be made by prison labor…
and one bright gem sitting in the bottom of the box after all the other things flew out…
A college professor has been placed on leave after she allegedly forced her class to sign a pledge to vote for President Obama in the upcoming elections.
The pledge was printed off of GottaVote.org, a website funded by the Obama campaign.
it ought to get interesting soon..
Last week I heard Dick Morris comment that pollsters are using a turnout model based on 2008, which was unusual to say the least. Its hard to imagine that voter turnout among young voters and black voters will hit those same historic levels again this year, which would hopefully help Romney.
There are still two gorillas in the room, how the hell did someone like Obama ever get taken seriously and two, why isn’t this guy 17 points behind in the polls? Obama could murder a busload of orphans and not lose a percentage point. We’ll see if his popularity can survive $5.00/gallon gas due to his inspired leadership in the Middle-east.
There is another question, sometimes it takes years for people to make rational analyses, in that respect, how long will it be until an unequivocal majority reaches the same conclusions about Obama as we have.
A typical brainwashed democrat would just as soon lose in Nov if he can just claim a lead and moral superiority till then. They really are that dependent on cognitive dissonance. It’s like expecting a crack addict to conserve if hes told his supply will likely dry up in 60 days.
And on polling, there is an excellent article over at PJmedia by Roger Kimball. A sample of his wisdom:
“Strategists and, by extension, journalists and the public at large look to the polls as the Romans looked to the entrails of birds: suitably interpreted, they could foretell the future.”
Ships from 30 nations sweep mines in Persian Gulf in warning to Tehran…
IRAN DEPLOYS RUSSIAN-MADE SUBMARINE IN GULF…
The other problem with polls is that the response rate has been falling. I read it is now about 9%. i.e. only that percentage of the polled sample actually responds.
I suspect the author minimizes the impact, but it has to have some. People who have abandoned land lines are much harder to poll. People with call screening are hard to poll, especially since they may get half a dozen such calls in a day.
We screen our calls and rarely respond. If my wife responds, she always answers ambiguously. We know the polls are under sampling Republicans. It may be that they have no choice; Republicans are less likely to respond to a pollster.
The “October Surprises” seem all to be tending in a direction to damage Obama, not Romney.
Jamie Irons
This is heartening, but I worry that the biased polls could be used to justify “stolen election” charges if Romney wins. You know the media would happily push such a narrative, even if it meant the whole country going up in flames.
rickl,
Stolen Elections? The last time that happened nationally was 2000. How’d that turn out?
Keep in mind that this article (Datechguy) an the University of Colorado study do not mean that anything is written in stone. However, the fact that they go against the conventional media wisdom means that there is more out there than meets the eye; an idea I’ve been promoting here fro quite some time.
There are two solutions to a “stolen election” charge. The first is to get out the vote so that a Romney win is decisive enough that the charge can’t be made. I think the Univ Colorado model (52.3% if I remember correctly) would do accomplish that and , if accurate, this rasmussen pol indicates that it could be at least that.
The second is to make sure that decisive vote is decisive enough in the swing states. Practically speaking, who cares if the Obama fraudsters stuff ballot boxes in California, Delaware or DC. Obama will take those states anyway. The keys are OH, PA, VA and IA. I think FL will be strongly enough Romney that it won’t matter (seniors who respect maturity and results and aren’t swayed by a “cool” factor, an increased Jewish vote as the result of Israel and the Middle East, and Cubans who trend more Republican than Mexican Hispanics).
That analysis made my day. TY.
…I confess to being a bit less than chipper from events of the past week.
I do not confess…. 😉 The tide has turned. The under 30s are not going to turn out in zombie hordes for BHO in 2012 and some that do vote will vote R&R. Black and hispanic turn out will decrease by 2-3%. Jews for BHO (crucial in NY & FL) will drop 2-5%. Blue collar voters in OIHO, PA, WS, etc. will not rush to the polls eager to vote for BHO. This is the silent trend under the radar of the MSM.
R&R by 5%.
Neo,
I JUST saw this on Instapundit.
I feel so much better reading this. I don’t know how all polls including Fox News can have the race so close when I don’t feel the same buzz about Obama as when he first ran.
Nobody I know even wants to talk about him. They just say things such as, “I don’t pay much attention to politics”.
Well then don’t vote if you don’t pay attention!!!
Lordy. People who know nothing need to stop voting. Obama’s speech today in Ohio was petulent, and filled with one liners about making the middle class pay over $2,000 more. How can Obama not be called on the carpet for this BLATANT lying???
I would love somebody to step up and call him on it. Anybody. But the only people who he lets near him are boot lickers it seems.
Mitt Romney does not propose raising taxes on the middle class. The Wall Street Journal disavows that analysis.
Almost all of the polls are rigged, plain and simple. They all, including Rasmussen, make invalid assumptions based on past statistics.
When Romney wins decisively, they’ll dismiss the disparity between their ‘polls’ and the actual numbers by labeling it an ‘anomaly’.
The leftist/liberals accusation that anyone who demanded facts and statistics to back up their position was automatically a bigot was no surprise but perfectly illustrative of the mind-set.
Thats ok… the war isnt up and running yet…
and thats going to change the voting numbers in certain ways…
Foreigners flood into Syria to join battle to overthrow Assad
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/middle-east/foreigners-flood-into-syria-to-join-battle-to-overthrow-assad-8145202.html
the French foreign legion perhaps?
Lebanon asks Iran if Revolutionary Guards are on its soil
http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/09/17/us-lebanon-iran-forces-idUSBRE88G0Y820120917
IF you dont know, why would they tell you?
Syrian Jets Fire Into Lebanese Territory
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10000872396390443816804578001800053081808.html?mod=WSJ_hpp_MIDDLENexttoWhatsNewsForth
lets drag the neighbors into the block party,
cant have a conflagration and fulfill Engels without it, can ya?
and GM is finding out what power, telecomunications and energy sectors all know… that goverment is a tar baby, and once nationalized, they wont let go..
after all. they get the taxes on profits, and 27% of the profits too… why would they let go?
in fact, i bet a whole bunch are thinking… you know? large block minority ownership by the state has advantages… they get their taxes, and any profits too.. the company can write off 100% of the taxes, and yet, cant get around paying the dividends…
so i wouldnt be surprised if the geniuses are actually owners of a lot more a la QE and purchases to prop up the market.. (which is doing surprisingly well for a period of moribund growth, turmoil, and so on.. no? i thought it was an instrument of future forward looking investments?)
Protesters Screaming ‘F**k America!’ Attack US Embassy In Jakarta
http://www.breitbart.com/Breitbart-TV/2012/09/17/Protesters-Screaming-Fk%20America-Attack-US-Embassy-in-Jakarta-With-Rocks-and-Bricks
[its a smaller sect that has been giving a lot of grief in the country… and not representative of the whole. however, what they are yelling when burning is that the US should be destroyed like we destroy the flag]
but i also said china would heat up…
now. personally, i thought china taiwan
not china japan
Japanese companies shut China factories
http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/cecf3b7e-00be-11e2-8197-00144feabdc0.html
and china is now going to pull the. you owe us so much, and we make so much, let us do what we want, or we will squeeze your jewels
China trade complaint challenges U.S. anti-dumping measures
http://www.latimes.com/business/money/la-fi-mo-china-trade-complaint-wto-dumping-obama-romney-20120917,0,2797876.story
and note how they are making sure obamas back is to the wall with an election. ie. he cant act as he might act otherwise.
i would say they been working and planning this all at once thing for a long while, after watching long enough to see what the weaknesses and tendencies in handling things are. and Obama is not a 23 things at once kind of guy…
8,786,049: Yet Another Record for Americans Collecting Disability… / 16 people working for each person collecting.
so i think that polls are less useful in this cycle..
there is going to be too much turmoil and so many things from so many angles.
though this stuff extermally has a way of freezing the discussion on internals. now its easy to avoid the economy, and so on… and romney may want to point out that, with such chaos, being unsound financially makes things worse…
and van jones gets his wish, we are connecting the gulag industry with the manufacturing industry
Two American companies lay off hundreds as military uniforms to be made by prison labor…
and one bright gem sitting in the bottom of the box after all the other things flew out…
College suspends professor for allegedly attempting to force students to vote for Obama
http://www.campusreform.org/blog/?ID=4364
A college professor has been placed on leave after she allegedly forced her class to sign a pledge to vote for President Obama in the upcoming elections.
The pledge was printed off of GottaVote.org, a website funded by the Obama campaign.
it ought to get interesting soon..
Last week I heard Dick Morris comment that pollsters are using a turnout model based on 2008, which was unusual to say the least. Its hard to imagine that voter turnout among young voters and black voters will hit those same historic levels again this year, which would hopefully help Romney.
There are still two gorillas in the room, how the hell did someone like Obama ever get taken seriously and two, why isn’t this guy 17 points behind in the polls? Obama could murder a busload of orphans and not lose a percentage point. We’ll see if his popularity can survive $5.00/gallon gas due to his inspired leadership in the Middle-east.
There is another question, sometimes it takes years for people to make rational analyses, in that respect, how long will it be until an unequivocal majority reaches the same conclusions about Obama as we have.
A typical brainwashed democrat would just as soon lose in Nov if he can just claim a lead and moral superiority till then. They really are that dependent on cognitive dissonance. It’s like expecting a crack addict to conserve if hes told his supply will likely dry up in 60 days.
And on polling, there is an excellent article over at PJmedia by Roger Kimball. A sample of his wisdom:
“Strategists and, by extension, journalists and the public at large look to the polls as the Romans looked to the entrails of birds: suitably interpreted, they could foretell the future.”
Read the whole thing:
http://pjmedia.com/rogerkimball/2012/09/17/newtons-first-law/
Ships from 30 nations sweep mines in Persian Gulf in warning to Tehran…
IRAN DEPLOYS RUSSIAN-MADE SUBMARINE IN GULF…
The other problem with polls is that the response rate has been falling. I read it is now about 9%. i.e. only that percentage of the polled sample actually responds.
There is a discussion of the problem at Gallup.
I suspect the author minimizes the impact, but it has to have some. People who have abandoned land lines are much harder to poll. People with call screening are hard to poll, especially since they may get half a dozen such calls in a day.
We screen our calls and rarely respond. If my wife responds, she always answers ambiguously. We know the polls are under sampling Republicans. It may be that they have no choice; Republicans are less likely to respond to a pollster.
The “October Surprises” seem all to be tending in a direction to damage Obama, not Romney.
Jamie Irons
This is heartening, but I worry that the biased polls could be used to justify “stolen election” charges if Romney wins. You know the media would happily push such a narrative, even if it meant the whole country going up in flames.
rickl,
Stolen Elections? The last time that happened nationally was 2000. How’d that turn out?
Keep in mind that this article (Datechguy) an the University of Colorado study do not mean that anything is written in stone. However, the fact that they go against the conventional media wisdom means that there is more out there than meets the eye; an idea I’ve been promoting here fro quite some time.
There are two solutions to a “stolen election” charge. The first is to get out the vote so that a Romney win is decisive enough that the charge can’t be made. I think the Univ Colorado model (52.3% if I remember correctly) would do accomplish that and , if accurate, this rasmussen pol indicates that it could be at least that.
The second is to make sure that decisive vote is decisive enough in the swing states. Practically speaking, who cares if the Obama fraudsters stuff ballot boxes in California, Delaware or DC. Obama will take those states anyway. The keys are OH, PA, VA and IA. I think FL will be strongly enough Romney that it won’t matter (seniors who respect maturity and results and aren’t swayed by a “cool” factor, an increased Jewish vote as the result of Israel and the Middle East, and Cubans who trend more Republican than Mexican Hispanics).
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