Here’s my question about Syria
Who are the rebels?
My strong suspicion is that there are few good guys here. It was the same question I asked about Egypt and Libya. In both places there were some “good guy” elements mixed among the Islamicist fanatics, although I suspected the latter would be the ones to end up with the power, just as they had long ago in Iran. And that seems to be the way it’s trending, although news from both countries has died down for the moment.
In Syria I also have grave doubts about the makeup of the “rebels”—a word I have come to hate and distrust. And, as in Iraq, if we aren’t committed to overseeing the aftermath of a rebellion (which we most assuredly are not), we should be careful of the forces we unleash.
However, in Syria there is a huge difference from Egypt, and that is that the current regime in Syria may be almost as bad and as unfriendly to us as anything that could replace it. In Egypt the situation was markedly different; although Mubarak was a tyrant, he was by no means high on the scale of tyranny in the region, and he was a fairly valuable ally. And yet Obama threw him under—yes, the bus. Qaddafi occupied a position in between Mubarak and Assad, in terms of both extent of his tyranny and his alliance with the US (in recent years, anyway, when Qaddafi had demonstrated a slight mellowing compared to the olden days).
As for the Syrian rebels, well, it’s a mixed bag, and I can only hope we can tell the players without a score card and are encouraging the ones who at least aren’t obviously affiliated with al Qaeda or executing teenagers for blasphemy (read the link and you’ll see what I’m referring to).
That area of the world is, quite frankly, a mess no matter how you look at it. I suppose it’s within the realm of remote possibility that any “rebels” who might defeat Assad and take over the country will be better their predecessor, but I really wouldn’t bet a dime on it.
Is the US singing this song?:
Same old song. Our Dear Leader looks to continue his work of destabilizing the Middle East, always taking the side of Islamists. If he doesn’t intend to turn the whole region in a churning cesspit of 8th century religious fury, then he’s the biggest, most dangerous fool in history. If he does intend this … I dare not say what that means.
My son served as a Marine last year in Afghanistan in a very dangerous area while the “green on blue” attacks were taking place. (They still are taking lives.) I was a supporter of the War on Terror from the beginning including invading Iraq. My opinion changed once it was clear that the evolving rules of engagement destroyed any chance of victory in those battlefields in any way that we have historically understood victory in war. While GWB was President there was daily front page reporting on the war deaths, etc. Crickets since President Obama has been in charge though the escalation in deaths is palpable. Arming these sworn enemies of the US…beginning in Libya has boggled my mind. It seems that if there is any real plan, it’s do the opposite of any past military effort. It seems that our military is truly becoming the theater of the absurd.
arm both sides and keep it going as long as possible.
allow as many jihadists to flow in from europe and lebanon and elsewhere as possible.
encourage russia to do what they can to keep parity.
turn it into flypaper and a self-cleaning oven.
allow refugees to go to jordan and saudi arabia.
not here or europe.
When will these elitists and *their* desires for the world realize that all their actions are akin to poking a frog with a stick. You may want/need the frog to go in a certain direction but there is almost zero chance that that will take place.
Who are the “rebels”? Why, they’re the ones that will get US mil. aid, what else is there to know? You mean, like, who are these people and why do we aid them? Because Obama hates ophthalmologists. It’s OK to use bullets on one’s own folk, but bad to use CW, though where’s the proof thereof?
This stupidity kinda reminds me of pre-WWI. The Russkies aid Assad, US aids the “rebels”, Turkey and Israel can get sucked in by any downdraft, and then Kablooey.
Dan,
What makes you think those weapons will be used on each other? And even if they are, what is to stop them from being used on us? Especially our military that we send over there. (Not to mention State Department people that we once committed to protect.) And what about the surface-to-air missiles? You can tell me these haven’t already been used on passenger airliners, but I won’t believe you.
dan, I like the way you think.
However, there are many aspects to this problem.
David Goldman, aka Spengler, has some of the best insights, IMO.
“If we had a Syrian elite dedicated to modernization, free markets, and opportunity, we could have an economic recovery in Syria. But the country is locked into suppurating backwardness precisely because the dominant culture holds back individual initiative and enterprise. The longstanding hatreds among Sunnis and Shi’ites, and Kurds and Druze and Arabs, turn into a fight to the death as the ground shrinks beneath them. The pre-modern culture demands proofs of group loyalty in the form of atrocities which bind the combatants to an all-or-nothing outcome. The Sunni rebels appear quite as enthusiastic in their perpetration of atrocities as does the disgusting Assad government.
What are we supposed to do in the face of such horrors? I am against putting American boots on the ground. As I wrote in the cited May 20 essay, “Westerners cannot deal with this kind of warfare. The United States does not have and cannot train soldiers capable of intervening in the Syrian civil war. Short of raising a foreign legion on the French colonial model, America should keep its military personnel at a distance from a war fought with the instruments of horror.”
Go to Goldman’s site:
http://pjmedia.com/spengler/2013/06/05/muslim-civil-wars-stem-from-a-crisis-of-civilization/3/
Just keep reading. He has posts going back to May on Syria and the ME.
After reading all that Goldman has to say, one will conclude (at least I do) that the Obama administration is unlikely to do much that is right and will further destabilize the region – possibly the world.
Most of the time, last sixty years, say, nasty autocrats replaced by revolutionary regimes–commie or islamist–the nasty autocrats would have been the better bet.
To understand who the rebels are it is helpful to understand some basic facts and realities. 90% of the Syrian population is Arab in ethnicity. 74% of Syrian’s are Sunni, 13% are Shia, 10% are Christian and 3% Druze.
Assad and his supporters are Alawite Shia.
The ‘rebels’ are made up of domestic and foreign groups and fighters. The foreign fighters are al Qaeda and Muslim Brotherhood affiliated. Very few of the domestic fighters are secularists. Their allegiance is first and foremost to Sunni Islam.
No doubt many of the Syrian domestic rebels simply oppose minority Alawite Shia rule and their motivation in ‘rebelling’ is primarily tribal in nature. That is not to say that if victorious, they would support democracy. It’s a virtual certainty that a majority will support a Sunni Shariah compliant state.
A Sunni Shariah compliant state is essentially a jihadist state. That is why Al Qaeda is fighting in Syria, the formation of a Sunni Shariah compliant jihadist state is their goal. Syria becoming another Sunni Shariah compliant state continues the formation of a crescent (from Algeria to Turkey, a contiguous ring around the Mediterranean) of jihadist states, at the very least, sympathetic to al Qaeda’s aims. It is forming before our very eyes and the natural result of the ‘Arab Spring’.
Iran is supporting their client, Assad’s Alawite Shia’s who allow Hezbollah, Iran’s terrorist proxy, refuge in Syria.
Russia is protecting its influence and foothold in the M.E.
It’s inevitable and unavoidable that US military assistance will find its way into Al Qaeda and Muslim brotherhood hands. They already have Libyan and Syrian weapons.
Recently, in Mali, a detailed manual with diagrams and photographs, on how to use a surface-to-air missile capable of taking down a commercial airplane was discovered in a local al-Qaida headquarters.
Then there’s this: the L.A. Times reports that the Obama administration is considering resettling thousands of refugees who left Syria during the country’s ongoing civil war to multiple towns and cities across the United States.
Typically, the UN sends 50% of its refugees to the US.
JJ,
Spengler fails to specify whom the “dominant culture” is, that is holding back individual initiative and enterprise in a country “locked into suppurating backwardness”. That “dominant culture” is Islam.
Geoffrey Britain,
You have succinctly encapsulated the facts that prove that no matter what the stated policy of this administration might be, their actions support candidate Obama’s assertion that he intended to fundamentally change this nation. Too bad more of our citizens didn’t think this through, or understand what it meant.
SharonW:
Interesting speculative rumor is that obama gave stingers to AQ in Libya to kill America’s former ally, Qaddafi. These stingers were then somehow transported to Afghanistan and used to kill a Seal Team. The one responsible for the hit on Osama Bin Laden, who coincidentally had their names leaked by Obama.
They’re the guys who will burn down our embassy in Damascus this September, and kill our ambassador if we still have one. Sequestration Obama-style.
G.B. you’re entirely correct. The entirety of the Spengler article makes that plain also.
What’s in it for Harry Reid?
This stuff is soo obvious. The Dem. Senators are part of the game? For that matter, what are the Rubio crowd saying?
Only us nuts think this is all nutty?
What’s going on here???
To improve on Dan’s suggestion: Ensure all the weapons explode when used.
I’ll take my barbecue head with some liver and kidney, too, please.
Team Obama was stupid to “draw a line in the sand” and too bad there are people like McCain and Graham egging him on. His ‘engagement’ with the world of Islam is a disaster in waiting for the West.
Kyndyll Says:
June 14th, 2013 at 1:29 pm
I’ll say it. Obama, and whoever is behind him and foisted him on us, are enemies of the United States.
America and the world has certainly become an interesting place. People will soon have to really look in the mirror and decide, for themselves, who the evil parties are. They won’t be able to rely on trusted institutions, Americans, or their government to tell them what is what.
The Leftist alliance has been doing things to make their Utopia a reality for 1 to 2 centuries now. Their ideas are even older than that.
And yet, what we know of their activities doesn’t break the 10% barrier. We still don’t know…. what they are really doing.
It may come to pass that history decides that the greatest evils in the world came from 3 places.
Middle East: birth place and conquered origin of Islam.
European Enlightenment through Russian economic concepts
American fascist utopian beliefs about social justice
SharonW,
I hope your son is safe and that he does not re-up. If anyone should distrust DC it is the rank and file of the armed forces.
After they openly swear allegiance to al Qaeda, I think the question is settled, about them AND jugears.
Parker,
Thank you. My son is safe, and he has good sense. He and people like him of their generation give us reason to hope.
Ymarksakar,
I agree with you about the social justice issues. I believe we are living in a “post 10 commandments” culture. In times past in the western world, even those that didn’t adhere to a specific religion, recognized the wisdom and truth embodied in those laws. I’m a Catholic and like in the secular culture we are outnumbered by the progressives. The priests don’t realize that their adhesion to social justice is predicated on breaking 2 commandments. 1st, “Thou shalt not covet” and then “Thou shalt not steal”. Hopefully there will be an awakening, otherwise challenging times ahead.
Michael:
If you read the linked article, you would have noted that (at least supposedly) the ones pledging allegiance to al Qaeda are not the groups we’re planning to help and/or arm. The one that is openly supportive of al Qaeda is more of a splinter group and is not as large as some of the others.
Now, the ones we are proposing to aid also probably represent some arm of Islamiscism, bent on making the country a theocracy or at the very least a country with a strong theocratic political influence.
The low information voter.
Let’s play association and remember to be honest.
Syria . . . who
The NSA . . . what
Benghazi . . . that fat girl with a robe on
Libya . . . tee hee
Bush . . . tee hee, no wait, I think that’s bad
Obama . . . OMG, do you know him? Can he get me a job at McDonald’s.
Assuming that the rebellion in Syria is similar to the Iraqi insurgency, we can also assume that most of the rebels are “good” in the sense that they mostly want to be left alone to pursue their petty tribal fights without a maniac in the capital telling them what to do.
The problem for us is that because they’re only interested in tribal squabbles they’ll take help from al-Qaeda, or other nasty folks. Al-Qaeda’s wider mission just isn’t their problem.
The Iraqis eventually turned against al-Qaeda because that wider mission became a local problem. This hasn’t happened in Syria yet and there’s no reason it will without another push from outside.
Oh Btw, Assad’s chemical weapons?
Probably were formerly Saddam’s.
not the same as iraq,leave syria alone/would not cameron fight for his country,world war 3 coming?
IF SYRIA FALLS TO THE WRONG PEOPLE.WE ARE xxxxxxx HELP SYRIA FIGHT THE SO CALLED REBELLS
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