Maliki resigns
Maliki’s decision to step aside paves the way for the ascent of Haider al-Abadi, the U.S.-favored candidate attempting to form a new government…
In a statement earlier Thursday from Martha’s Vineyard, where he is on vacation, Obama said he spoke to Abadi “a few days ago,” and received assurances that the new government would be inclusive.
“We are modestly hopeful that the Iraqi government situation is moving the right direction,” Obama said.
My hopes are extremely modest at this point, as well.
Apparently the impetus for Maliki stepping down was that he lost the support of Sistani, the influential Shi’ite cleric:
It was Sistani’s letter a few days ago demanding a new prime minister that sunk him, apparently. Without a Shiite base of support, he had nothing.
So, what will Obama do now? He’s claiming all’s well on the mountain, but the UN begs to differ.
You’d think Maliki’s departure might be an opportunity for Obama to go after ISIS with more vigor, since he cited Maliki’s non-inclusiveness as a stumbling block. I have tremendous doubts that Obama will go in that direction, though.
As for Maliki, he is more fortunate than Diem, at least so far.
[ADDENDUM: More here.]
Maliki is gone, but the damage is done. The Iraqi army has been hollowed by corruption and incompetent leadership. Rebuilding it as a fighting force will take a long time, if it can be done at all. There may be Shia militias that will fight against ISIS, but they will be poorly trained, difficult to control, and prone to atrocities. I don;t know much about this fellow al-Abadi, but presumably he knows how to say what the State Department likes to hear, which is usually how you get American backing in these sorts of situations. But absent an effective army, he won’t be much more than mayor of Baghdad.
My guess, for what it’s worth, is that there should be enough Shia militia types to hold onto Baghdad, but taking the offensive against ISIS is going to take a real army and an effective counterinsurgency strategy. I don’t see either here. The most likely source of weapons, advice, and effective training for the Iraqi army now is Iran. Qods force shock troops and advisers might make it possible for the Iraqi army to take the offensive against ISIS. In the meantime, ISIS can continue to equip itself with equipment, weapons and supplies abandoned by the Iraqi army, fund itself with Saudi money and various sorts of criminal activities, and recruit with videos to attract foreign jihadis, and by emptying Iraqi jails. And it can Murder, torture, and terrorize at will.
Sorry to be such a downer, but that’s how I see it.
Al-Abadi is NOT Tehran’s boy. The mullah’s just figured that they can work with him. He’s not going to work against them, no, not at all.
He’s also most unlikely to stir the (corruption) pot and go after al-Maliki’s billions. (It can’t be mere millions, so many ghost soldiers, so many contracts.)
This corruption angle is a big one in Tehran, too. It would just not do to have a serious dust-up over Iraqi corruption — since Iranian corruption is epic by even Chinese standards.
%%%
I would be astounded if the front lines shifted before the winter campaign weather hits.
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Now that al-Abadi is assuming national leadership, the Iraqi army is going to have to be entirely rebuilt. This will not entail much in the way of equipment. Everything will turn on finding real leadership.
Al-Abadi is going to have to federalize his army:
Creating Sunni, Kurdish and Shi’ite formations — with limited logistical legs. These formations are to be STATIC divisions that ‘camp out’ in just their section of the country.
No serious amount of ammo, POL or parts is to be stored away from a tight series of national depots — proximate to Baghdad.
Likewise, the Iraqi air force is to be kept on a short leash. Most of its POL has to be kept AWAY from its Balad GHQ. [ Making the wholly unwarranted assumption that Baghdad ever gets Balad back.]
As ever, the Iraqi navy is to be restricted to riverine patrol craft and a coast guard. A naval air force and a deep blue capability have no value for Baghdad.
%%%
Baghdad is going to have to give up on owning the Kurds. Iraq has enough oil — pretty much everywhere — that her primary goal must be to stop internal conflict. Kirkuk is peanuts compared to the big picture. Syrian, Turkish and Iranian fears about Kurds should carry no weight in Baghdad. The Kurds won’t be marching on anybody — ever.
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Some effort has to be made to get wildcat drilling underway in al-Anbar. The CIA’s report indicates that the Sunnis are sitting on top of seriously large oil deposits — that have gone ignored because the Shi’ite deposits are so close to the Gulf.
Yet the Sunni deposits are huge by global norms, in easy strata, and right close to the Euphrates! Good grief.
They should be punched and then pumped west towards the Med, maybe the Red Sea.
Jordan, itself, has a massive oil refinery that could absorb over 600,000 bbls per day — easily.
Wiki:
Jordan Refinery, Zarqa, Az Zarqa (Jordan Petroleum Refinery Company), 650,000 bbl/d (103,000 m3/d)”
However, so long as the Sunni clans are paranoid that Baghdad is going to freeze them out, to stiff them, no progress can be made.
No-one is going to wildcat while ISIS is slaying infidels right and left. It’s already worn out its welcome.
blert:
“Some effort has to be made to get wildcat drilling underway in al-Anbar. The CIA’s report indicates that the Sunnis are sitting on top of seriously large oil deposits – that have gone ignored because the Shi’ite deposits are so close to the Gulf.”
These oil deposits were known about as early as 2008. Here it is six years later and they haven’t been tapped. Maliki really was corrupt. Rather than invite Total/Shell/BP in to drill, he sucks up all the old oil field money and redistributes it only to his people.
All that oil was one reason I was confident that Iraq could make a go of it. I failed to realize how corrupt people can be. They were freed from Saddam’s boot and then Maliki turned around and just copied him. Sad! We should have just told them that we were going to develop the oil fields and take enough to pay us back for freeing the country. Once we got paid back with interest, then we could have had discussions about what happened next.
That’s another big reason ISIS has to be defeated in spades. They’re getting their hands on enough money to start thinking about buying WMD. If they get WMD, they will use them.
“Obama . . . received assurances that the new government would be inclusive.”
Splendid notion. If it works out, maybe He might take lessons from Abadi and then try doing that here in the good ole USofA.
MJR; “Splendid notion. If it works out, maybe He might take lessons from Abadi and then try doing that here in the good ole USofA.”
🙂
A few more years he could have been Iraq’s Hussein. Third one, after America’s Hussein.
Say it ain’t so, he’s giving up already?
“Rather than invite Total/Shell/BP in to drill, he sucks up all the old oil field money and redistributes it only to his people.”
It’s little different from the US Regime preventing Alaskan companies from drilling, while giving oil fields to Brazil, BP, and other foreign companies (so that they can explode them on the oceans).
Ymarsakar: “It’s little different from the US Regime preventing Alaskan companies from drilling, while giving oil fields to Brazil, BP, and other foreign companies (so that they can explode them on the oceans).”
True dat.