More thoughts on this Tuesday’s election
When I saw the title of this New Republic piece by Brian Beutler—“It Won’t Be Obama’s Fault When the Democrats Lose the Senate”—I practically snickered.
More sycophantic Obama apologia, I thought. But when I actually read it I changed my mind, because that’s not what the article is at all. Beutler rightly points out some trends in the 2014 election that I had noticed but not really thought about all that much before, trends that should disturb anyone on the right: the relatively poor performances and close races in many states where the Republican candidate ought to be running away with it.
A win is a win is a win, but some of these should be routs, and they’re almost certainly not going to be:
In 2012, Obama lost Alaska, Arkansas, Louisiana, and North Carolina by 13, 24, 17, and 3 points respectively. Right now in the states’ Senate races, also respectively, polling aggregators show Mark Begich trailing challenger Dan Sullivan by one to four points; Mark Pryor trailing challenger Tom Cotton by four to eight points; Mary Landrieu trailing Bill Cassidy by four to seven points; and Kay Hagan beating Thom Tillis by one to three points.
These Democrats are all outperforming Obama by significant margins, in states where Republicans have natural advantages, and in a year in which those advantages should magnify Democratic weaknesses.
The counterpoints to this observation can be found in Colorado, Iowa, and (to a lesser extent) New Hampshire. Obama won those states in 2012 by four, six, and six points respectively. Right now, also respectively, Mark Udall is trailing challenger Cory Gardner by about two points; Bruce Braley (running to replace retiring Tom Harkin) is trailing Joni Ernst by one to two points; and Jeanne Shaheen is leading Scott Brown by only one to two points.
The conservative narrative of a nationwide Republican wave is incubating in these states, where Democrats are underperforming Obama. It must therefore be true that allegiance to Obama is a decisive factor everywhere.
But that narrative cannot account for the GOP’s remarkable underperformance in Georgia, Kansas, and Kentucky. Mitt Romney won those states by eight points, 22 points, and 23 points respectively. Right now, also respectively, Republican David Perdue is leading Democrat Michelle Nunn by two to six points; GOP incumbent Pat Roberts is running behind Independent Greg Orman by about a point; and Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell is leading Democrat Alison Lundergan Grimes by three to five points. Grimes is outperforming McConnell’s 2008 challenger Bruce Lunsford, who lost by six points in a Democratic wave year. Kraushaar attributes this better-than-the-fundamentals resilience to “her attempts to appease both the party base and more-conservative voters in her state,” which have been “painfully awkward.”
If I had to, I’d put money on Democrats losing all three. But you have to be really invested in a certain conception of politics to explain races that close in states that red as evidence of a national anti-Obama wave. Or to attribute their losses to insufficient Obama bashing.
I think much of it comes down to candidates and their personal characteristics. For example, notice that in at least two of the states where the Republicans are outperforming what might be expected from their states’ 2012 vote (Colorado and Iowa), the Republican candidates are considerably more personable and magnetic than their opponents. That could also arguably be true in New Hampshire. Then there are people like Roberts in Kansas and McConnell in Kentucky, who are probably doing more poorly because they are less than compelling, and who have probably been coasting on their incumbencies in recent years.
I confess to not being keenly aware of the finer points of the dynamics in every one of the states with hotly-contested races, so I could easily be missing something. Some of you might say it boils down to “RINO bad, conservative good,” but that doesn’t explain some of the races I know best, where New England’s (formerly Massachusetts’, presently New Hampshire’s) very own supposedly RINO Scott Brown is doing better than expected against the widely-liked Jeanne Shaheen.
But I fear it’s more than the particular characteristics of these particular candidates that explains the phenomenon. I fear that what we are seeing is not some profound and thoughtful ideological shift in the electorate, but a free-floating disgust and impatience with the whole process that is both shallow and fickle, and can just as easily turn back the other way if things don’t go swimmingly well.
I leave you to duke it out about the reasons, but those are my guesses. But I’d like to see Republicans not only win on Tuesday, but win big. And then, of course, they have to perform.
Should be “interesting.”
Scott Brown became competitive only after he came out strongly against immigration ‘reform.’ He was down 10 points until he moved away from being a RINO.
The GOP establishment supported Pat Roberts against Wolf. Roberts is a RINO. Wolf has just come out saying we need to support Roberts. Would the GOP establishment do the same in reverse? No.
What’s the message here? RINOs are losers.
I believe there’s a larger issue at play.
Charles Krauthammer correctly identifies what is driving the poll numbers, namely “A Referendum on Competence”. This election is about Obama, NOT democrats. And therein lies the larger issue which unfortunately, apparently escapes Mr Krauthammer.
It’s very true that a large portion of the American public is unhappy with Obama’s incompetence but… NOT with his actions and policies. They want him to be decisive and effective in implementing socialist policies and making them work. They still haven’t accepted that socialism is fatally flawed. They still haven’t awoken to the left’s manipulative lies and some never will.
No matter what a future Republican majority might do, congressional democrats will obstruct as much legislation as they can and, Obama will veto any republican legislation that arrives at his desk and, the MSM will cover for them. Twisting it all into being entirely the republican’s fault and, the low-info voter will buy into it once again because… too many Americans still haven’t accepted that socialism is fatally flawed. They still haven’t awoken to the left’s manipulative lies.
Once again I point to Vé¡clav Klaus, the former Premier of the Czech Republic’s astute observation;
“The danger to America is not Barack Obama but a citizenry capable of entrusting a man like him with the Presidency. It will be far easier to limit and undo the follies of an Obama presidency than to restore the necessary common sense and good judgment to a depraved electorate willing to have such a man for their president.
The problem is much deeper and far more serious than Mr. Obama, who is a mere symptom of what ails America.
Blaming the prince of the fools should not blind anyone to the vast confederacy of fools that made him their prince.
The Republic can survive a Barack Obama, who is, after all, merely a fool. It is less likely to survive a multitude of fools, such as those who made him their president”.
Klaus’ astuteness logically leads to Ludwig von Mises prescient observation; “Political ideas that have dominated the public mind for decades cannot be refuted through rational arguments. They must run their course in life and cannot collapse otherwise than in great catastrophe…”
Sorry to “harsh your mellow” but you can’t effectively fight a war, if you don’t accurately identify the terrain.
the relatively poor performances and close races in many states where the Republican candidate ought to be running away with it.
yeah… but that depends on what? where and how they ask the question… and the fact that they are breaking voting laws like nutters…
check out the video of the guy that walks in with thousands of early ballots and starts stufing the box with them
2014 Election fraud: campaign worker stuffs 100s of absentee ballots into Arizona ballot box
http://www.dcclothesline.com/2014/10/29/2014-election-fraud-campaign-worker-stuffs-100s-absentee-ballots-arizona-ballot-box/
sorry.. hundreds
The video above is surveillance camera footage of a man stuffing hundreds of absentee ballots into the ballot machine at an Arizona (early) voting station.
At the 0:30 mark, he begins inserting the envelopes containing the absentee ballots. More than 7 minutes later, he finally finishes and leaves – that’s how long it took for him to feed those absentee ballots into the machine.
I have everything crossed that will cross in the hopes anyone who will vote republican decides NOT to sit this one out.
Independent = democrat
Libertarian = one less vote for a republican, one less democrat vote cancelled
Beyond there being local explanations for how each race is unfolding, polls being what they are (the product of the execrable MSM, for the most part), maybe it’d be better to wait for the actual election results, and use that data for this analysis.
br549:
Libertarian = Democrat
There, fixed that for you.
It’s a shame, but that’s how it works.
Of course, I’m 90% of the way to voting third party _anyway_, and have been since after the 2004 election.
It’s a game of Russian roulette where one gun has 6 rounds in the chamber but isn’t well-maintained and the other gun has 5. Either way, you’re almost certainly taking a bullet.
br549,
You are either not following or don’t believe The Artful Dodger and he is talking about old fashion ballot stuffing.
As I wrote the other day I have examined the technology used to steal the Washington governor’s election. Under no circumstances should any computer or electronic devices be used in any part of the vote counting and tabulation process other than old fashion Unit Record Equipment where all the programing is external wires and plugs plain for all to see (i.e. NO secret coding).
Election supervisors often have no idea what is in the software they are loading into their voting machines.
“Those who vote decide nothing. Those who count the vote decide everything.” Stalin
Republicans have yet to adopt the attitude that electoral politics are only effective when incorporated as a lesser included element of a full-spectrum activist social movement.
Stubbornly refusing to embrace Marxist-method activism and over-valuing electoral politics as the lead driving and core element of social political formation is crippling the Right. The GOP can win elected office and still disappoint in effect. Elected GOP officials will only become effective when they can click into place and play their role as part of an effective full-spectrum social cultural/political movement.
The activist game is the only social cultural/political game there is. Electoral office is an important element but it can only work – as We The People wishes it to work – as a lesser included element. For elected officials to work, the people of the Right first must do the work as Right activists to defeat Left activists in head-to-head activist competition in the arena and, in so doing, lay the foundation for a Right-progressive America.
* Elected office is an important element but it can only work — as We The People wishes it to work — as a lesser included element.
NYT: RUSSIA SUSPECTED OF HACKING WHITE HOUSE COMPUTERS…
Democrats: Vote or we’ll kick your ass
http://nypost.com/2014/10/30/democrats-threaten-voters-to-get-to-the-polls/
The New York State Democratic Committee is bullying people into voting next week with intimidating letters warning that it can easily find out which slackers fail to cast a ballot next Tuesday.
“Who you vote for is your secret. But whether or not you vote is public record,” the letter says.
“We will be reviewing voting records . . . to determine whether you joined your neighbors who voted in 2014.”
and for fun put this into google:
how many elections will the dems steal
this is what comes out:
Showing results for how many electrons will the dems steal
Search instead for how many elections will the dems steal
google is playing games with your reality
as P. Floyd says
All you touch, all you see, is all your life will ever be
oh
the reason was i was trying to get to this article
How Many Elections Will The Democrats Steal?
http://news.investors.com/ibd-editorials/103014-724268-noncitizen-voting-uncovered-in-maryland.htm
As “calibration errors” switch votes in Illinois and Maryland, an election watchdog group sues the latter over massive voting by noncitizens in one county after discovering voters registered in multiple states.
The fact that many people will do anything to get out of jury duty has exposed massive fraudulent voting in Frederick County, Md., that may have been going on for years. Illegal aliens who stated they were noncitizens on jury duty forms were found to have cast votes in elections.
The Virginia Voters Alliance (VVA) cross-checked jury duty forms with individual voting records and found that hundreds of voters in that one Maryland county cast votes after reporting they were noncitizens. One in seven Maryland residents are noncitizens, so extrapolating the number of possibly illegal votes cast in recent elections over the entire state hints at possible election-changing fraud.
All politics is local to a certain extent. So if a national group runs an ad trying to tie the guy running for house to obama, when he spent the last 20 years as mayor of a medium sized town in arkansas, it might not work so well. Similarly, people have a good sense of local candidates and vote on the actual people as much as the party, otherwise the votes would almost always be the same.
My own state (arkansas) flips around locally between dems and reps, but has been solidly rep at the national level since 2000. But of course we voted clinton for the two years before that. Obama is not a candidate who is going to appeal to arkansas, but maybe the next dem will.
The Republicans claim that they are doing everything they can to combat voter fraud. Not nearly enough, in my opinion. (Too many intelligent people still think that voter fraud doesn’t happen.)
So think of this as yet another reason to vote! Don’t even THINK about staying home. Even if you don’t like voting for your local RINO, remember that we need to overcome the Margin of Fraud here.
Hugh Hewitt said it best, years ago — if it’s not close, they can’t cheat. Don’t let it be close.
In North Dakota in 2012, Rick Berg (R) lost his senate seat race by 10 points, while in an identical race (only 1 rep in ND) the Republican for US house won by 20 points.
Why is that? Personality, personality, personality.
When personable Democrats run as friendly and reasonably conservative, they win sometimes, even in red states. The people are fooled into thinking they will not be like that evil Obama.
Eventually, it’s gonna take blood and bullets to decide what will be. The government is long aware of that.
Ive never thought the electorate was moving towards conservatism and have been frankly surprised that Republicans are doing well at all. As a couple of people have mentioned above, this will be short lived. Vé¡clav Klaus was right {Thanks Geoffrey}, the fools had elected their prince, but the fool machine is fully entrenched, churning out fools from K thru 12, reinforced by almost every media outlet. I see no way this gets turned around.
Weren’t there polls about a week ago showing the good news that Democrats’ favorability rating had tanked? And that the Republican’s rating was still worse. It is great if Republicans gain in the election but they are not making a case for any broad ideas, so it is hard to be encouraged.
Pholotics of smelling poop!
I’ve taken one to feel better.
Maybe that’s all I hoped:
A politician without cheddar.
Still, it’s obvious, isn’t it.
Can’t stand for God in an atheist age. Can you?
Can’t stand for truth in a post-modern age. Can you?
Can’t stand for responsibility in an envy age. Can you?
Can’t stand for a nation in a new world order age. Can you?
Well, if you can’t, you won’t get my vote.
Although I have no proof, and I am in flyover country, I sense that somewhere around 35% are instinctually conservative, 25% are leftists of various strpes, and 40% are blowing in the wind. The blowing in the wind people are easily swayed by the msm and celebrities. Until conservatives begin to make well reasoned arguments to the blowing in the wind crowd; they have no chance of forging a lasting majority. It should begin with give a man a fish and he eats for a day, teach a man to fish and he eats for life.
I have a simple solution for vote fraud (which doesn’t exist!). IMHO, vote fraud is treason as it goes against the Constitution. Since vote fraud convictions now only merit a tap on the wrist, at best, it’s time to elevate the penalties, make them draconian. I want the death penalty for those convicted of vote fraud. I want their executions public. I’m not kidding. The only way you make somebody think twice about committing vote fraud is to make the penalty so severe that they will not do it.
I also want states to share voter registration names, especially states next to each other, so that those registered in multiple states are caught. If my calling for the death penalty is too severe for some, then the permanent loss of franchise must be a part of the penalty for committing vote fraud. If caught voting again after losing one’s franchise, then LWOP is the sentence for a second conviction. Screw three strikes and your out when it comes to voting. Change the risk/reward for vote fraud from low risk and high reward to high risk and high reward. We’ll see how many want to play that game of Russian roulette.
Without electoral integrity, our Republic is whistling past its own graveyard.
Absolutely agree, RickZ. I no longer have any confidence in the integrity of the voting process. There is just too much stress to the system, from proven cases of vote fraud punished with a slap on the wrist, no ID requirement, millions upon millions of illegals scattered in precincts throughout the country, to voting machine software that local election officials can’t possibly hope to understand.
With sophisticated statistical analysis of census data, vote fraud has been elevated to a science. It doesn’t have to be done on a “massive” scale, either. Quite the opposite: Crucial precincts can be identified, and a few votes can be added here or subtracted there. This makes it much more difficult to detect.
That last bit is important. We all hear stories of illegals voting, homeless people being bussed around and voting multiple times, ballots being found in the trunks of cars, and so on. These techniques all involve manufacturing or adding votes. But the other part of the equation is just as important: subtraction. Legitimate votes can be destroyed or deleted, and electronic machines make that easier than ever. This doesn’t get nearly enough attention, in my opinion.
If there was ever a “grit my teeth and crawl across broken glass” election, it was 2012. Yet to this day we still hear accusations from Republican moderates that conservatives stayed home and sulked rather than vote for Romney. Despite their seething rage at Obama, those principled conservatives just couldn’t sully themselves to vote for a RINO, and thus handed the election to Obama. It was their fault he won.
I don’t believe that happened at all. Those people voted, and their votes went missing. Not all of them; just enough in critical precincts.
So subtracting votes has an additional benefit for the fraudsters: It can cause members of the opposing party to turn on each other and engage in blaming and finger-pointing.
I have a bad feeling about Tuesday.
Personal anecdote: I myself SWORE during the primaries that I would not vote for Romney if he became the nominee. I never liked him as a candidate to begin with, but there was a particular incident in one of the debates that made me go ballistic. I won’t go into it here, but you can find my comments in the archives if you hunt for them. Profanity was involved.
Yet when November rolled around, I DID vote for him. I can’t be the only one.
“I also want states to share voter registration names, especially states next to each other, so that those registered in multiple states are caught.”
Needs to be nation wide. During the stolen election it came to light that a feral judge in Atlanta was voting in Seattle. We must have in person voting for all except military and Foreign Service. All others can travel home or not vote. Period.
Video of Illinois touch screen voting machine magically changing ‘R’ vote to ‘D’.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YtbqebpV9vY&feature=player_embedded
Recent polling among Democrat constituent groups has shown marked decline in support: single women, Latinos, Blacks…all down.
Democrats CANNOT get elected without their support, since they have obviously abandoned the white male vote.
This, to me, suggests that The Peopleâ„¢ aren’t dumb sheep, but it does take time for them to come around to the truth.
Why are some of these elections so close? I would say it’s lack of charisma on the parts of individual candidates, coupled with lack of confidence in the GOP, coupled with general disgust in government.
The Peopleâ„¢ aren’t turning toward Republicans so much as they are turning away from Democrats. But they ARE turning away.
I would call this a leadership/competence vacuum. Seems ripe for someone to step into.