Obama and Iran: the shape of agreements to come
Scott Johnson at Powerline alerts readers to news on the current state of negotiations with Iran over its nuclear program, pointing to this AP article as well as this piece by David Horovitz at The Times of Israel.
The AP article is awfully ho-hum about it all, considering how high the stakes are. For example, the headline is “Historic US-Iran nuclear deal could be taking shape,” which doesn’t say a thing about good, bad, or indifferent. The article goes on with the usual back-and-forth between those who laud the potential agreement and its critics, but expresses no real sense of alarm (except for Israel’s alarm). It’s got quotes like these in it to appeal to those predisposed to trust the administration:
Still, a comprehensive pact could ease 35 years of U.S-Iranian enmity ”” and seems within reach for the first time in more than a decade of negotiations.
“We made progress,” U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry said as he bade farewell to members of the American delegation at the table with Iran. More discussions between Iran and the six nations engaging it were set for next Monday, a senior U.S. official said.
Iranian Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif said the sides found “a better understanding” at the negotiating table.
The tone of the article seems to be that the pending deal represents a balance of competing interests between two sides presumed to be negotiating at least somewhat in good faith (a preposterous notion in terms of Iran’s rulers, and suspect as well for this administration):
Iran says it does not want nuclear arms and needs enrichment only for energy, medical and scientific purposes, but the U.S. fears Tehran could re-engineer the program to produce the fissile core of a nuclear weapon.
The U.S. initially sought restrictions lasting up to 20 years; Iran has pushed for less than a decade. The prospective deal appears to be somewhere in the middle.
It ends on a note of optimism about the talks, and sympathy for Iran:
Daryl Kimball of the Washington-based Arms Control Association said that with the IAEA’s additional monitoring, the deal taking shape leaves “more than enough time to detect and disrupt any effort to pursue nuclear weapons in the future.”
In exchange, Iran wants relief from sanctions crippling its economy and the U.S. is talking about phasing in such measures.
Now let’s take a look at what the Horovitz article has to say. He observes that, although the Obama administration has been engaged in denying Israeli rumors of what might be in the agreement and accusing Israel of “misrepresenting the specifics for narrow political ends,” the pending agreement that the AP article describes not only contains many of the things Israel has been complaining about, but is even worse than previously thought. According to Israel’s “most respected Middle East affairs analyst,” Ehud Ya’ari, the deal would be likely to have some catastrophic consequences:
In his TV commentary on Monday night, Ya’ari highlighted that the deal could further embolden Iran as it expands its influence throughout this region, and he noted that the isolation of Iran even by Israel’s key allies was already cracking, with the firmly pro-Israel foreign minister of Australia, Julie Bishop, announcing an imminent visit to Tehran ”” the first Australian foreign minister to make such a trip in a decade.
Ya’ari also noted that the International Atomic Energy Agency has made clear that it lacks the tools to effectively monitor the kind of nuclear program that Iran will be allowed to maintain under the emerging deal ”” incapable, that is, of ensuring that Iran does not fool the West as it has done in the past.
The devil of such deals is generally in the detail. But the devil, here, is in the principle as well ”” the principle that the P5+1 is about to legitimize Iran as a nuclear threshold state. From there, it will be capable of rapidly breaking out to the bomb, well aware that the international community lacks the will to stop it…
…[I]f the deal now taking shape is indeed finalized, the chances of the regime being ousted from within, or effectively confronted from without, will drastically recede. This deal, indeed, will help cement the ayatollahs in power, with dire consequences for Israel, relatively moderate Arab states, and the free world.
Elections have consequences, and Obama’s election in 2012 has already had some mighty big ones.
The only consolation I can find is one that was pointed out several times in the comment section at the Powerline article, which is that Obama will never bring this to Congress to be ratified because he knows it’s highly unlikely to get Congressional approval. Although the deal wouldn’t require ratification because it’s not necessarily a treaty, as a non-treaty it probably would not be binding on a future president.
I said that was the only consolation, and I’ll add that it’s very scant consolation. Even if America’s next president ultimately goes back on the Iranian deal, Obama has shown the entire world that America no longer can be counted on to have a reliable and consistent foreign policy, even in such an important and basic matter. That sets a terrible, terrible precedent, even if the US (and Israel, and the world) ultimately dodge this particular Iranian bullet.
Anyone who has paid attention to Obama over the years can’t help but notice that his m.o. is to act unilaterally, in “historic” and sweeping ways, against public opinion, in order to get something into place as quickly as possible and hope it will become impossible to undo. Another pattern is to delay the worst consequences of the deal for a little while, in order to lull people into a false sense of security until there’s no turning back.
The Iran deal may be following similar patterns. Obama is not asking for approval, the policy change is huge, it has a delayed fuse, and he wants it completed ASAP so it will have been in place as long as possible, and done as much damage as possible, before a successor president is inaugurated who might try to clean up the mess. The longer in place the more entrenched a thing becomes, as Obama is well aware.
In US News and World Report, Harold Evans is if anything even more pessimistic about the deal than Israel’s Ya’ari was:
Look at the record of betrayals of trust that have enabled Iran to operate 19,000 centrifuges and another 1,008 IR2M machines that can produce bomb-grade, fissionable material five times faster than the other centrifuges. Back in 2005, the West was saying to Iran “zero centrifuges.” Let me repeat: zero. Next we were talking of a compromise at 5,000 centrifuges. The negotiations from 2005 and 2013 can be summed up in one word: retreat. A series of capitulations have left Iran with “the right” to enrich uranium, so now it has thousands of kilograms of enriched uranium. That’s enough to produce a bomb, contrary to the Obama administration’s commitment to Congress that it would not allow Iran to have nuclear weapons…
Now the United States seems prepared to make a deal that not only would suspend and ultimately lift the sanctions, but would do so while leaving Iran as a threshold nuclear power. This is the classic definition of a Bad Deal. And worse: Iran is on track to put a nuclear warhead on intercontinental missiles with a range reaching beyond Europe. This puts the whole civilized world at risk of nuclear blackmail but more, it threatens Israel’s very existence.
The American people understand. In a poll conducted late last year, 81 percent said Iran cannot be trusted. So too do many members of Congress from both parties.
Evans reports that many Democrats in Congress “are furious with Obama for ignoring their concerns and for pursuing his obsession to reach a deal with the Iranians at almost any cost,” and that Dennis Ross (a Middle East negotiator for both the Clintona and the Obama administration) “was scathing in his condemnation of the president’s weaknesses and his ongoing concessions to the Iranians.”
Let that sink in; it tells you how extraordinarily awful Obama’s stance must be if Democrats are criticizing it that harshly. But how much of this do we hear in the MSM? And how willing are Democrats in Congress to do anything about any of it? Just watch how many of them support Obama by boycotting Netanyahu’s Congressional talk; I predict it will be a significant number. And if sanctions on Iran ever come to a vote, just watch how many Democrats will be willing to join with the GOP. I bet it’s not enough to override the inevitable presidential veto.
Obama has made this treasonous travesty of an agreement with Iran the international centerpiece of his glittering second term, just as amnesty has been the domestic centerpiece. The latter is all about consolidating the power of Obama and his party, and the former is all about puffing himself up with pride and selling out Israel, the US, and the world to an evil empire. Despite how cynical I have become in recent years, part of me is still stunned that even this wouldn’t be enough to cause enough Democrats to get fired up with apprehension and outrage and finally make an impeachment and conviction of Obama possible. And yet I am virtually certain that will never happen.
I guess the “consolidate power” part overrides all the other considerations.
Its all part of his reset and bowing to Russia and his having a bit more space to make deals. now russia and iran and others are showing how they really feel.
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Russia Pushes Reset Button: Parades Missile Threatening to BLOW UP Obama
http://www.thegatewaypundit.com/2015/02/russia-pushes-reset-button-parades-missile-marked-to-be-personally-delivered-to-obama/
Do note the classic logo design that was supposed to be dead and non existent…
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Despite these warnings, the Clinton administration now proposes to spend an additional $600 million to launch a massive public works project in ten Russian “nuclear cities .” Although these sites are ostensibly closed to outsiders, Iranian visitors have in the last five years been spotted at some of Russia’s most sensitive weapons labs, including Vector and Obolensk, where scientists have genetically engineered human and animal viruses to produce the most deadly biological weapons known to mankind.
Rose Gottemoeller is not just any anti-nuclear academic: In 1993 she became National Security Council director for Russia and the other Soviet successor states. Since then, she has presided over policies that advanced the career of former KGB Director Yevgeni Primakov, turned a blind eye to Russia’s nuclear and missile transfers to Iran
ince 1991, the Russians have pumped more than $6 billion into building a gigantic underground military complex, designed to withstand a direct nuclear blast, at Yamanta Mountain in the Urals. “The Russians have refused to provide any credible explanation for the purpose of this site,”….
The reinforced underground bunkers take up 400 square miles, “an area as large as Washington, D.C. inside the Beltway,” Weldon said.
Where do the Russians get all the money for such mega-projects? One source is clear: the U.S. taxpayer. Since 1993, the Clinton administration’s misguided nonproliferation programs have pumped more than $2.5 billion into Russia’s military-industrial sector
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Iran’s first nuclear power plant, Bushehr I reactor was complete with major assistance of Russian government agency Rosatom and officially opened on 12 September 2011
From the beginning of the 1990s, Russia formed a joint research organization with Iran called Persepolis which provided Iran with Russian nuclear experts, and technical information. Five Russian institutions, including the Russian Federal Space Agency helped Tehran to improve its missiles. The exchange of technical information with Iran was personally approved by the SVR director Trubnikov.
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from the russian embasy in the UK
http://rusemb.org.uk/in4b/
Iran is a traditional partner and a good neighbour of Russia…..
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American, British, Polish and Russian Experts Warn that Continued Fighting In Ukraine Could Lead to Nuclear War
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Russian media learn to love the bomb (Feb 23 2015)
Talk of nuclear war has been looming large in the Russian media.
Как мы переÑтали боÑÑ‚ÑŒÑÑ Ð¸ полюбили бомбу
http://slon.ru/insights/1209561/
Saprykin was struck by how presenters and listeners on independent radio station Ekho Moskvy now speak about nuclear war “more or less in the same way as if they were discussing increases in parking fines”.
“Why are you all so afraid of nuclear war? Why are you afraid of nuclear war?” presenter Aleksey Gudoshnikov asked listeners to the pro-Kremlin station Govorit Moskva last month.
“This fear of nuclear war is exaggerated, in my view,” the 26-year-old Gudoshnikov concluded.
The matter-of-factness or even levity with which the Russian media now discuss nuclear weapons is new.
says Saprykin, some are losing their fear of nuclear weapons in today’s Russia “where talk of when and how they might be used is a standard subject of public debate”
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ussia cannot threaten the United States. She is poor. She is weak. She is starving. She is in chaos. Think again, says Stanislav Lunev. Col. Lunev is the highest ranking military intelligence officer ever to have defected from Russia (GRU)
Golitsyn, highest ranking KGB officer to defect said similar and has laid out what will happen from the 1980s with an over 90% success rate.
others saying similar over the years also include Sergei Tretyakov…
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May the force be with her: Russian woman sneaks into missile factory… and discovered it looks just like a scene from Star Wars
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2083556/Meet-girl-blogger-sneaked-inside-Russian-missile-factory–security.html
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Nuke trains’ with up to 30 Yars missiles rolling out from 2018 — Russian defense source
http://rt.com/news/217795-russia-nuclear-missile-trains/
Last year the Russian military said that nuclear trains — which are no longer banned under the New START treaty — would be revived.
no longer banned? when did THAT happen?
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its been over 20 years in the making.. slowly.. while the west ignores it and dreams that russia military is backwards and failied and so on… new weapons with the same name as old ones confuse discussion… military uses hardened equipment… (one reason for the backward view is that old engines without computer parts will run if a bomb goes off, its a cheap way to remain able… while hardening computer chips which may have soft counterfeits in them, is not as good and a lot more expensive)
Didn’t Obama assure us that America would be able to absorb a nuclear hit? Just hide under your desks, people.
Things and events that used to be at the margin are now the basis … What could possibly go wrong.
I blame the voters.
TWICE!
Sarov – Formerly known as Arzamas-16.
Snezhinsk – Formerly known as Chelyabinsk-70
Zarechnyy – Formerly known as Penza-19
Novouralsk – Formerly known as Sverdlovsk-44
Lesnoy – Formerly know as Sverdlovsk-45
Ozersk – Formerly known as Chelyabinsk-65
Trekhgornyy – Formerly know as Zlatoust-36
Seversk – Formerly know as Tomsk-7
Zheleznogorsk – Formerly known as Krasnoyarsk-26
Zelenogorsk – Formerly known as Krasnoyarsk-45
It was in these 10 secret, highly restricted cities that the Soviet Union designed and produced its nuclear weapons stockpile. 600,000 people lived there..
there are over 45 cities
Soviet nuclear weapons stockpile reached its peak of about 45,000 weapons – we have no way to verify what was destroyed.. a lot of it was not, as we in the west started giving them money to destroy them, instead they built up yamentau mountain…
declassified docs show that they were cranking out 7,000 nuclear warheads a year
you can find them on google satellite and see how much they are still in use..
one would also be surprised as to what the chinese have done… including building all manner of things for military testing and training… (mostly for taking taiwan)
but if NATO is defunct, what would stop china from grabbing taiwan and singapore, while russia grabs the baltics and maybe other places?
if obama is squeemish about fighting ISIS because he speaks fluent arabic and russian… how would he feel going up against china and russia for such small countries?
Iran does not need a missile to bomb the US…
it only needs the cargo hold of a passenger plane..
it can also put it in a ship, and not even get into our waters.
heck, the soviets could give them one, and who would know they did? what evidence would remain? los alamos was collecting nuclear material to finger print bombs, but then russia started buying nuclear material from everywhere, making such identification null and void.
The pressure the United States and the West is bringing to bear on Iran to keep it from acquiring nuclear weapons is all for naught. Not only does the Islamic Republic already have nuclear weapons from the old Soviet Union, but it has enough enriched uranium for more.
KAHLILI
Reza Kahlili is a pseudonym for a former CIA spy who is a fellow with EMPact America and the author of “A Time to Betray,” about his double life in Iran’s Revolutionary Guards (Threshold Editions, Simon & Schuster, 2010).
Kazakhstan, which had a significant portion of the Soviet arsenal and is predominately Muslim, was courted by Muslim Iran with offers of hundreds of millions of dollars for the bomb. Reports soon surfaced that three nuclear warheads were missing. This was corroborated by Russian Gen. Victor Samoilov, who handled the disarmament issues for the general staff. He admitted that the three were missing from Kazakhstan.
http://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2011/oct/27/iran-already-has-nuclear-weapons/?page=all
that was 2011… if its true, then all that is going on now is the facilitation of allowing them to tell the world that they have them… and preventing them is moot..
after all… it took the US three years to make their first one… why do you think it takes iran 25 years to make theirs when one can download information on making them from lots of places…
what they havent done is test one… but if they bought it, they dont need to test it… do they?
thats it for me… its too hard to pick the feathers from the tar… not to mention that the damn rail is uncomfortable.
Artfldgr:
I don’t think anyone here is saying Iran needs a nuclear program to have some sort of nuclear attack (even terrorist groups could probably accomplish a limited one at some point, which has long been a major fear of those who are serious about fighting them).
But a large nuclear program and someday an official announcement that they have a bomb would have the effect of making Iran even more powerful than before, and accelerating the arms race in the area. Plus, the fact that the Obama administration is showing such capitulation at the moment emboldens both Iran and the terrorists to consider him either a laughingstock pushover or an active collaborator (only they know for sure which it is).
Dangerous on all levels.
“part of me is still stunned that even this wouldn’t be enough to cause enough Democrats to get fired up with apprehension and outrage and finally make an impeachment and conviction of Obama possible.”
Denial. Pride. Normalcy bias. Ideological commitment.
Geoffrey Britain:
I assume you’re speaking of them and not me.
I’m not really stunned—although, as I wrote, part of me is. It’s a very small part, though. The far larger part of me would be absolutely stunned beyond description if they were to join in a fight to remove Obama.
As I think I’ve said in other posts, I literally cannot imagine what he could do to get enough of them to turn on him.
Once Iran has the bomb it can seize the Strait of Hormuz through which 1/3 of the world’s oil passes. That would result in the world oil price skyrocketing.
Dear Mullahs: You read him right: A VAST TESTICULAR CONCAVITY.
**Side Note, You Butchering Scum: President Walker or President Rubio will rip up that treaty. Don’t like that? Bite Us.**
Of course the AP is ho-hum; they’re on Barry’s side.
I think a lot of reputations will fall to Barrycide.
Yes, I was speaking of them. The only thing that would lead to enough democrat’s voting for Obama’s impeachment is if the very survival of the party required it. Even then, the circumstances would have to be both inescapable and undeniable.
Group: Iran Operating Top Secret ‘Parallel Nuclear Program’
http://freebeacon.com/national-security/group-iran-operating-top-secret-parallel-nuclear-program/
The National Council of Resistance of Iran (NCRI), also known as the MEK, said in a report released Tuesday it has found concrete evidence of an “underground top-secret site currently used by the Iranian regime for research and development with advanced centrifuges for uranium enrichment,” according to a copy of the findings.
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“Despite the Iranian regime’s claims that all of its enrichment activities are transparent and under the supervision of the International Atomic Energy Agency, it has in fact been engaged in research and development with advanced centrifuges at a secret nuclear site called Lavizan-3, in a military base in northeast Tehran suburbs,” the report concludes.
The site has operated in secret since at least 2008. Iranian regime scientists have used it to conduct critical research into uranium using highly advanced centrifuges that more quickly enrich the substance to levels necessary for a nuclear weapon, according to the findings.
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and they mean literally underground… following the soviet miltary doctrine (mentioned in another post with the link and author). heck, they even named it like soviet cities and installations…
neo-neocon, im just covering the bases… not everyone knows what is going on, or what has gone on, or who is involved… the fact i put something up doesnt necessarily imply you or some others here dont know.
i am always over thorugh…
which is why i cant write… i keep thinking of things to add to be comprehensive and not know what to leave out or how to make it shorter…
on the work front
no raies this year.. whether i learn to write or not
they just informed me… 11 years, no raises…
wishing i get run over given my future..
so i guess no raises for the next 14 years till retirement, meaning i will be homeless and lost my family before that… sheesh..
too bad someone with my skills and knowlege has no place…
anyway…. given low information people, and people who equate belief with knowlege, its easy to talk and not inform them… they have little idea of what is going on right now, as its almost like a news blackout on the subject (like polar bear hunting and knockout game).
the above post points out how they have copied or been advised by the soviets… who have always been great at disnformatzia and head games… (head games are cheap)
Artfldgr:
Sorry to hear about the bad news you got at work.
Thanks for the clarification about the other point.
Thank you Artfldgr I bow, three times …
And, now for an intermission on the road to perdition:
the US Secretary of States opines:
Scripture Says U.S. Should Protect Muslim Countries Against Global Warming
Here
Artfldgr,
The Russians are NOT planning on a direct nuclear war with America. There is no defense against nuclear subs. We can be reasonably certain that the Pentagon is well aware of the buried Russian facilities, have repeatedly war gamed it and, should Russia ever start a nuclear war, have covered that scenario with a few nuclear subs holding off on retaliation until the Russians emerged from their lair.
Given the vital technological assistance that the Russians and Chinese have long given to N. Korea and Iran, logic dictates that they must have contingency plans for moping up in the aftermath, to secure for themselves greater global dominance in a world with a deeply wounded America.
This is all dependent upon if Iran/N. Korea ever conduct a nuclear attack upon America. Are they that crazy? Perhaps. A coordinated EMP attack, launched from commercial container ships at sea is, IMO their best bet for escaping retaliation.
Russia and China are using Iran and N. Korea in a covert, proxy war of aggression against America. The object of which is to greatly lessen America’s global influence and presence. In Barack Obama they have found a willing accomplice.
But you are quite right that missiles are not needed given the seemingly innocuous alternatives.
Great research by Artfldgr …
Geoffrey Britain
“This is all dependent upon if Iran/N. Korea ever conduct a nuclear attack upon America. Are they that crazy? Perhaps.” As to the NORKS:
this
I cannot fathom the game the Russians are playing.
I do not trust the Pentagon War Games, they missed the Kuwait invasion thingy so bad, for one.
g6loq
The article linked to is complete bluster and total hogwash.
Putin has repeatedly stated that he seeks for Russia a return to superpower status and ideally, a return to the former Soviet Union’s territorial borders. But Russia lacks the industrial and technological resources to decisively challenge the US for dominance. So subterfuge is the obvious ploy in such a circumstance.
Russia has been the main facilitator of Iran’s pursuit of nuclear weapons capability. The Russians have consistently and over a long period provided protection in the UN for Iran against debilitating international sanctions.
The Russians are NOT Muslim sympathizers, so the vital assistance they have provided has to have a self-serving motivation. The only explanation that fits is that they are using Iran as a proxy, as a covert means of aggression against the US. The aim of which is to reduce as much as possible, America’s global presence and influence. It’s a lilliputian/guerrilla strategy; tie your opponent down, drain his resources and spread his resources thin with dozens of minor conflicts around the world.
As for the Pentagon, yes they missed that one but as it was a relatively remote regional conflict, (prior to Saddam’s invasion of Kuwait, how many Americans could locate it on a map?) so perhaps it’s understandable that it was ‘below their radar’. Presumably, disturbing Russian activities are at a much higher priority. But if they are not, look for politics as the determinative explanation.
Geoffrey Britain
Yup HOGWASH I thought years ago, I bookmarked because it being so outlandish.
Yup, the Pentagon missed it I thought then because… well, err, whoooo could locate it on a map. Never mind the satellite intelligence…
Now things are so out of the range of normality that we cannot afford to be … smug.
No survival value in smugness.
Here a piece I referenced in an earlier thread. HOGWASH said the Jew who was just made an “Honorary Arian”, Hitler, pffuiii, passing phenomenon said the smug of the times:
here [they even financed Hitler.]
“To be personally delivered to Obama.” printed on a intercontinental missile paraded through Moscow shown at the GatewayPundit link above referenced by the great Artfldgr.
In due course the 1930’s smugs sheepishly boarded the cattle cars.
Now are not the times for smug normalcy bias …
Nope.
Historic?
Obama was historic.
This could be a disaster.
I have long thought that the Dems would be content to virtually destroy the U.S. – as long as doing so gave them perpetual power over the remains.
WATCH: Iranian cruise missiles blow up life-size replica of American aircraft carrier
http://www.jpost.com/Middle-East/WATCH-Iranian-cruise-missiles-blow-up-life-size-replica-of-American-aircraft-carrier-392156
Apparently the Obama administration–contrary to all the available evidence, and repeated Iranian leader’s bellicose actions, statements, and threats–has somehow managed to convince itself, and constantly lies to us about, what they claim is the “trustworthy” and peaceful nature of the Iranian regime.
Meanwhile, in the real world that is soon to kick us in the teeth, the Iranian regime has released a menacing video of and statement describing and commenting on the recent Revolutionary Guards’ war game in the Persian Gulf/Strait of Hormuz, during which their land and sea-based cruise missile attacks destroyed a full sized mock-up of a U.S. Nimitz class super carrier.
Reading and rereading Neoneocon’s piece … I feeeel sick.
In business terms this situation is like having a partner negotiating on your behalf for the benefit of the other side. The other side being some kind of a mafia like entity.
Waaaay beyond any “normal” parameters!
Helloooo Mr. Madoff, he of the fatherly smile.
As to Iran, think North Korea, comic strip like North Korea, spoofable North Korea … a lists of their actions from a 2004 book, still going strong:here
In particular this item:
Iran and North Korea are from the same template.
It doesn’t look good.
Neoneocon used the word treason.
It is.
Prepare.
Neo said:
“needs a nuclear program to have some sort of nuclear attack”
Neo you undermining this case with your statement.
If review Iran regime fiddling with different style of attacks and terrorists activities from US embassy in Beirut, Kuwaiti Airplane highjacking throwing passenger bodies on the runway, and more like the bombing in Argentine, finally officially threatening the countries in the region many times most importantly closing the world most livable sea route of major oil supply all those not of concern to you by stating what you said.
So what you think Iran regime will do if he have some sort of nuclear power?
Remember N. Korea you neighbor how they look now after they got their hand on have some nuclear attack
Just adding the major factor for US bad look humiliation in Iraq and the defeats of shinning democracy in that land is Iran Mullah regime and its proxy Da’awa Mullah ‘s midwife group.