Yemen…
…was touted as a success story by President Obama a mere four months ago.
Now, not so much:
The Yemeni foreign minister is asking several Gulf Arab neighbors for military intervention to stop territorial advances by Houthi fighters in his embattled country, after the U.N. special envoy for Yemen warned the U.N. Security Council that events appear to be leading the country “to the edge of civil war.”
The Houthi rebels opposed to President Abd-Rabbu Mansour Hadi are threatening the country’s security, Yemeni foreign minister Riyadh Yaseen suggested Monday.
“They’re expanding in territory, occupying airports and cities, attacking Aden with planes, detaining whom they please, threatening and gathering their forces,” Yaseen told Al Jazeera TV.
As a consequence, the US and the Brits have pulled out of the country:
Over the weekend, the United States evacuated the last of its special operations forces — including Navy SEALs and Army Delta Force troops — amid the deteriorating security situation in the country, the U.S. State Department said.
On Monday, a security source in the region familiar with the situation in Yemen told CNN’s Nic Robertson that British special forces had also left Yemen in the last few days…
Yemen has been a key U.S. ally in the fight against al Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula, allowing U.S. drones and special operations forces to stalk terrorists in the country. Now, that arrangement is in tatters, along with any semblance of peace in the Middle Eastern nation.
Or in the Middle East as a whole, I might add.
Meanwhile, Obama goes blithely on, pursuing the great white Iranian whale of his megalomaniacal fantasies. Of course, that’s not a good metaphor; as a Moby Dick fan, I realize that Ahab wanted to destroy the whale, not to give in to accommodate, placate, and empower it.
[ADDENDUM: Michael Totten weighs in:
Far more likely than a comprehensive Houthi takeover is a new and more dangerous phase of Yemen’s endless self-cannibalization””more dangerous because this otherwise parochial and irrelevant conflict has been internationalized, with ISIS, the Saudis, and Iran squaring off against each other in yet another regional proxy war.
The Houthi movement is named after Hussein Badreddin al-Houthi, an insurrection leader killed by the former government in 2004. They are Shias, but unlike the “Twelver” Shia Muslims of Iran””who revere eleven imams and await the birth of the occluded twelfth””most of Yemen’s Shias are “Fivers.” Iran doesn’t mind. From its point of view, better the odd “Fiver” Shias than Sunnis, but all that really matters is that the Houthis are willing to say yes to Tehran, its weapon shipments, and its top-notch military advisors and trainers…
The US has few friends and even less leverage, especially now that it’s all falling apart, so Washington is washing its hands and bringing everyone home. All we can really hope for there is less instability, not so much because Yemen’s local squabbling affects us””until now they hardly registered outside the country””but because dangerous adversaries that threaten the West are hoping to expand their base of operations and their ability to export malfeasance everywhere else.
We’re in the very best of hands.]
The boychild is on a mission to fulfill the dreams of his father otherwise known as the destruction of Western Civilization.
What a pity that, in that tinderbox called the Middle East, we don’t have just one solid, reliable ally — an ally committed to democracy and the rule of law, an ally that isn’t an economic basket case, an ally that can defend itself from its jihadist neighbors.
Oh, wait, we do have such an ally! What a pity that our President can’t stand them.
Civil war is a favorite Yemeni activity.
It’s always been messy there. Not a place for amateurs …
Strategically, there are only two reasons for Iran to focus upon Yemen.
Firstly, allegiance with the Shia Houthi of Yemen now provides Iran with a future opportunity to seize the Bab-el-Mandeb Strait, which forms the entrance to the Red Sea from the Gulf of Aden. Shipping passing through the Suez Canal must traverse the Red Sea and thus must pass, in both directions through that Strait.
Secondly and reportedly, Saudi Arabia is vulnerable on its lightly defended south western border. The eastern coastal region of Saudi Arabia is where its oil fields lie, a region with a majority Shia population. One that is historically restless.
Once Iran has nukes and missiles with which it can reach the European capitals, nuclear blackmail* and nuclear deterrence become viable threats. That nuclear capability, coupled with allegiance with Houthi controlled Yemen, in turn makes possible seizure of the Mandab Strait with its de facto control of Suez Canal shipping. Nukes also make seizure of the Strait of Hormuz, through which 1/3 of the world’s oil passes a viable consideration. The resultant consequence would be an economic stranglehold on the West.
* France’s recent tough line at the Obama / Iran negotiations is an indication that they are aware of that future scenario.
I suspect the Sunni v. Shia narrative is vastly overblown. There’s all kinds of other stuff going on in that happy part of the world. We are inclined to buy into it, perhaps because it reminds us of the apparent sectarian stupidity of Northern Ireland’s Catholics v. Prots.
G.B.: “Once Iran has nukes and missiles with which it can reach the European capitals, nuclear blackmail* and nuclear deterrence become viable threats. That nuclear capability, coupled with allegiance with Houthi controlled Yemen, in turn makes possible seizure of the Mandab Strait with its de facto control of Suez Canal shipping. Nukes also make seizure of the Strait of Hormuz, through which 1/3 of the world’s oil passes a viable consideration. The resultant consequence would be an economic stranglehold on the West.”
I believe you are correct. This is what Iran hopes to accomplish. The economies of the West would be hugely affected. Eventually, NATO (of which we are the lead power) and other Western nations would have to react to put Iran back in the bottle. With Obama seemingly unconscious of their aims or even in agreement with them, the Ayatollahs see an opening to attain their goals.
This can only lead to major conflict. All because of Obama and his, “walk stickly and carry a big soft,” foreign policy.
“Strategically, there are only two reasons for Iran to focus upon Yemen.”
A few more, actually.
One oughtn’t forget the price of oil. The Saudis have basically declared war on Iran (and others) using oil as their weapon of choice (not that they have much else).
The Saudis must be either defeated or co-opted, in which case, the price of oil would likely rise, benefiting Iran (as well as its ally in the Kremlin).
And then there’s Mecca. The jewel in the crown—more correctly, in the the universe. Not strategic? Well maybe not from a strictly military/economic point of view…. But other views of the matter do come into play in these matters…..
Oh, and then there’s the issue of Israel.
Defeat or co-opt the House of Saud, and Iran is sitting a very, very short distance away from Israel’s southern flank, while also putting tremendous pressure on the Kingdom of Jordan, whose co-option would place Iran smack on Israel’s longest border.
To be sure, Israel would not let Jordan fall without a fight; but the Jordanians (i.e., the King or those who migh replace him), in a desperate and dire straits, might decide themselves to choose whatever they believe, at the moment, is the least worse choice.
Of course, if Mecca is the jewel in the universe, Israel, Israel is the key to it all.
That is, Israel’s long hoped-for destruction.
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Regarding the Moby Dick analogy, it would seem that the great white whale would be the US/Israel/West.
Though, I think that Obama is more of a Capt. Queeg character, for what it’s worth…
And the US is the Pequod.
Worst. President. Ever.
Counting the days….
Repeated and frequent premature evacuation may indicate a serious psychological problem, including ulterior motives.
It seems everywhere there is a Shia/US contact, Obama withdraws. I wonder if he’s intentionally ceding territory and weapons to them to isolate Saudi Arabia.