About that Saudi Arabian operation in Yemen
Obama read about it in the newspapers, same as you and me.
The Saudis are not stupid, and they know better than to trust him.
The New Neo
A blog about political change, among other things
Obama read about it in the newspapers, same as you and me.
The Saudis are not stupid, and they know better than to trust him.
Kyle Orton on the Saudi led intervention. It is noteworthy that Sudan has decamped from its alliance with Iran in favor of Saudi cash. And today, news that a Sudanese plane is downed in Yemen, the pilot in the hands of the Houthis.
Has Iran committed strategic error and over-reached its grasp? Kinda looks like it, to me. The Iranians seem stretched to the breaking point. Not to say they are going to be in retreat across a broad front, but to say that the IRGC endangers the regime at home.
Yeah. If it wasn’t for the Press, Obama wouldn’t know a thing.
The Saudis bankrolled the Pakistan nuclear program so they could obtain a nuclear weapon if they wanted one. I wonder if they told the Pakistanis to send that bomb.
http://www.theguardian.com/world/julian-borger-global-security-blog/2010/may/11/pakistan-saudiarabia
From neo’s link;
“The Saudis began operations in Yemen without informing the US — a hitherto unlikely scenario.
But they kept the operation a secret.
Because they think Obama is so determined to make kissy-face with Iran that he would have leaked their battle plans directly to their enemy.
They no longer consider the US “reliable”.” Ace of Spades
‘Reliable’… what a polite euphemism. When former allies no longer consider you trustworthy, they no longer consider you an ally. But of course, it would be counter-productive to publicly announce it.
“Has Iran committed strategic error and over-reached its grasp?” sdferr
Perhaps but the prize is worth the risk. Nor is there likely to be a better time to attempt seizure of that prize.
“I wonder if they told the Pakistanis to send that bomb.” Ray
I suspect not quite yet, though they’ve certainly prepared the Pakistani’s for that all but certain, soon to be made… ‘request’.
I’m not certain what the prize — in this context — is precisely Mr. Britain? Is the prize seizure of control of Yemen and as such, the Bab al-Mandeb (aiming at driving oil prices higher and at reacquisition of necessary revenues)? Or is the prize a much wider consolidation of hegemony in the Middle East, i.e. a threat of direct assault into Saudi Arabia? Or, again, is the prize the much more fundamental question of maintaining control of the IRI itself? If any one of these more dependent and lesser aims — Yemen, hegemony — is necessary to keep control at home, then perhaps yes, the prize is worthy the cost. But if, on the other hand, these lesser aims are not necessary to maintain control at home, but turn out to be the cause of the loss of control at home, then no I’d think, obviously not worth the candle.
So what exactly has Obama/Kerry promised Iran?
The Saudis aren’t waiting to find out.
And how long will the Israelis wait (taking into account the Obama staffer’s glee expressed several months ago at having stiffed “chickens**t” Bibi thereby preventing any possible Israeli interdiction)?
Promises, promises…..
And what about other less-than-benign actors in other regions (Eastern Europe, the far east)? Wonder how long they’re going to be waiting….
Looks like Obama wasn’t just intending to transform America.
Consider the lack of support from the EU members for US saber-rattling in Ukraine. Consider the EU’s privacy issues with US intelligence gathering… of Europeans ‘citizens’ and European leaders. Consider the EU’s litigations against American software companies. Consider the worldwide consideration for the Chinese alternative to the IMF. And now Yemen. It’s more than the Saudis that don’t trust him/us.
Anyone yet getting the idea that the world is, as it is in the nature of its components, for the strong horse; that ‘Superpower’ is as applicable to the USA as chaste and continent are to the Kardashians; that the smell of purulent decay is unavoidable and the healthy will avoid the source like the plague?
I’m starting to believe all those worldwide hosannah’s at the advent of Ophilia were not what we thought they were. Finally, someone had appeared on the world stage, who could do what the rest of the world could not, cut America down to size.
We love you Obama — though you know not why?
sdferr,
As you indicate, there are several potential prizes. However the most immediate and certain prize is control of the Bab-el-Mandeb Strait. Control of that Strait along with control of the Strait of Hormuz would give Iran an economic stranglehold upon the Western economies (through driving oil prices much higher).
Gaining an economic stranglehold upon the Western economies is the primary strategic goal of Iran’s presence in Yemen because that is the ‘safest’ way to defeat the West, once they have nukes to act as both a nuclear deterrent and as blackmail against vulnerable European capitals. Nukes would also prevent military confrontation with Iran once they began to apply that stranglehold.
Nor is control of Yemen necessary to restoration of necessary revenues, Obama has dropped much of the sanctions against Iran and after the coming ‘agreement’ most international sanctions will be dropped as well. There also appears to be little likelihood of Iran’s theocracy loosing their hold on power. Obama saw to that as well, when he let Iran’s ‘green revolution’ twist in the wind.
Barry Meislin,
Israel lacks the conventional resources needed for an effective air campaign against Iran and a pre-emptive nuclear first strike is a political non-starter, given the massive international repercussions against Israel that it would trigger.
Eastern Europe lacks nukes and any significant military resources to be a factor. Russia can only benefit from higher oil prices and is the primary facilitator of Iran’s pursuit of nukes.
No doubt China has contracts with Iran for pre-stranglehold oil pricing. They too are a supporter of Iran, having already threatened to defend Iran if it should be attacked. http://www.theepochtimes.com/n2/china-news/chinese-admiral-threatens-world-war-to-protect-iran-154434.html
If we look at the question of Iranian strength in the wider or widest sense, particularly on a longer time-line than merely to present appearances, matters do not seem to bode well for the Islamic revolution.
As Iran is evidently dependent on weak proxy fighters across the mid-east, whether we look to Lebanon, Syria, Iraq, Yemen or other places, we may surmise that the IRGC cannot project their own fighters to do their dirty work. Why is this? What does it say about the homefront? Nothing good, I’ll warrant.
Further, the Saud strategy to drive oil prices low (taken up by the Sauds upon the absence of the United States opposition to Iran) has been met with success already, if we’re to judge the Iranian response by movement in Yemen, triggering the more potent Saudi-Egyptian military direct response in Yemen.
Sudan turns. Iran looks weak. Indeed, will be proven weak as Yemen proceeds in Sunni favor.
In Syria today, Idlib has fallen to rebel forces. The southern Hez-IRGC campaign has stalled. Israel struck the Hez-IRGC near Golan in January, and remains poised to take further action in south Syria as events warrant.
Jordan, despite being beset by a multitude of current crises at home, has made its own opposition to Iranian incursion on its borders known.
Things too, aren’t looking so great for the IRGC in Tikrit, despite or even because of US airpower coming to play.
ClownDisaster may have his “deal” (though I believe the Grand Ayatollah will have Iran walk away prior to any final agreement, though pocketing the time and dropping sanctions pressure gained), but that is an uncertain bit of business itself.
The Iranian opposition (Greens, at shorthand), meanwhile, is no less unhappy than they ever were, but more. On the longer view, it seems to me, Iran has overplayed its hand. And there’s nothing like seeking hegemony to put a target on one’s back.
I don’t believe Israel will sit still. Nor, for that matter now, the Sauds and the rest of the GCC (indeed, I wouldn’t completely discount a Sunni alliance’s direct assault on Iran itself). No, it looks quite possible that ClownDisaster has chosen the wrong ally, a foolish and hubristic ally. But, we’ll have to wait to see.
sdferr,
I certainly hope that your optimistic analysis turns out to be more accurate than mine. While I agree that the Iranians have potentially profound weakness that could be easily taken advantage of, I’m also certain that Obama will do no such thing.
In fact, Obama has and will continue to obstruct any meaningful actions against Iran to the maximum amount possible.
I’m also firm in my conclusion that Israel cannot significantly affect Iran without, at the least, American cooperation and assistance.
There is also a similar logistical problem with a Sunni assault on Iran and that is a supply chain that requires American support, again something Obama is not going to allow.
Hopefully, I’m wrong and you right but hope is a form of prayer not a strategy.
KSA must surely be putting the bag over the CIA drone campaign run out of the empty quarter of KSA.
Since it ‘doesn’t exist’ it’s no biggie when it went truly dark.
[ For those unaware: the CIA has been operating the drones that target Yemen from a secret base in the Empty Quarter of KSA. It’s a custom built base in the middle of no-where.
It can be/ was spotted by satellite — posted to ZeroHedge — itself an asset of Putin & Co.
It’s by reading ZH that one can view how frantic Putin is over the rise of fracking and the price of oil.
As related elsewhere, the primary reason for the Ukraine invasion is to throttle American wildcatters punching holes — right where the Russian crews had been. (and unsuccessful, too,)
Massive gas and oil discoveries within western Ukraine are a strategic threat to Putin & Co.
Such discoveries, and their prospect, are directly behind the astounding (extraction) tax rates that Kiev recently boosted.
Putin paid off his tools: by enacting punitive taxation for gas discoveries, Putin destroyed the very economic basis for drilling for natural gas in the first place.
Thus, Putin’s monopoly/ cartel was enhanced.
Egyptians too. Alas, it is too late for the Iraquis, Afghans, Ukrainians, Libyans, etc. The Israelis have resisted consumption of the opiates and remain fully cognizant of the sacrifice their dealers demand. Russians are also aware of a heightened threat level.
I’m also firm in my conclusion that Israel cannot significantly affect Iran without, at the least, American cooperation and assistance.
I have no knowledge of your views as regards this, so cannot take a position regarding your views one way or the other.
I myself don’t believe the Israelis will sit still. I think they will do whatever they can do regarding the Iranian movements in the region, as well as to the particular problem of Iranian nuclear weapons acquisition, whatever they have within the ambit of their own and allied power, whether they believe they will have American backing while America groans beneath the rule of ClownDisaster or not. I don’t believe the ClownDisaster administration’s propaganda and vaunting about Israeli weakness in this respect.
Another way of saying this is that the Israelis will not depend on hope. They will act by whatsoever means they deem necessary and beneficial. As will, I suppose, the rest of the Iranian’s adversaries in the region. US withdrawl, as it obviously turns out, means the US has far less capacity to shape events in the region than formerly — whether to the ClownDisaster’s liking or not. (Did he think of that?) As difficulties in the region become hard for those fighting for their lives, so those fighting for their lives will harden in their resolve and actions.
Neo,
your link showing:
US Aligned with Iran in Iraq, Against in Yemen
Its better to say:
US Aligned with Iran in Iraq, Against in Syria & now Yemen
Ray
The Saudis bankrolled the Pakistan nuclear program
Pakistan’s long history of fighting Saudi Arabia’s wars
The US isn’t aligned against Iran in Syria at all. The US is hands-off Iran’s puppet Assad. Explicitly so.
sdferr,
I’m a strong supporter of Israel. My doubts as to Israel’s ability to confront Iran, regardless of Obama’s wishes is based upon logistical realities.
To attack Iran, Israel would need permission to pass through other nation’s airspace, somewhat problematic at best. But even should Israel gain that passage, Israel lacks the depth of conventional resources needed for an effective air campaign against Iran.
A pre-emptive nuclear first strike is a political non-starter, given the massive international repercussions against Israel that it would trigger.
We can be certain; if Israel attacks Iran, Obama will exact as great a price as possible. That threat is a profound one in the minds of Israeli’s because the ‘lesson’ they took from the nearly disastrous 1973 Yom Kippur War was that Israel could not survive without America’s support.
Nor is this personal opinion, rather they are factual realities.
BARACK OBAMA: THE MOST UNINFORMED PRESIDENT IN HISTORY
Iranian Defector: ‘U.S. Negotiating Team Mainly There to Speak on Iran’s Behalf’
TWANLOC did it TWICE!
When people like that surrender after two nuclear bombs, do not imagine that today’s soft Americans – led by the likes of Barack Obama or Hillary Clinton – will fight on after New York and Chicago have been reduced to radioactive ashes. – T Sowell
A pre-emptive nuclear first strike is a political non-starter, given the massive international repercussions against Israel that it would trigger.
Unless those repercussions include nuking Israel to dust, I suspect the Israelis will make a first strike, repercussions be damned. International pariah status is still a better outcome than nuclear annihilation.
The original Mr. X:
Yes, the idea that a pre-emptive strike would be out because of political repercussions, when the alternative is annihilation, seems rather odd to say the least.
Of course, there are people who believe that the Iranian leaders are pussycats who really have no animus towards Israel and would never harm it. They either believe that, or they say they believe it and really don’t care. One of the many many things this current Iranian situation has revealed (not that it really needed more revealing) is how many people would either not care if Israel were to be annihilated or would applaud.