Trump’s favorable/unfavorable shift
Chris Cillizza writes in the WaPo about the unprecedented shift in Donald Trump’s favorable/unfavorable polling in Iowa, from 27/63 back in May to 61/35 now. Did I say “shift”? More like “reversal”:
Numbers just don’t reverse themselves like that in the space of a few months (or ever). Especially when the politician in question is totally known by the electorate. Once you are both totally known and broadly disliked ”” as Trump was in May both in Iowa and everywhere else ”” you are doomed. One hundred times out of one hundred.
That’s why I was SO certain of Trump’s inability to matter at all in the 2016 race when he, somewhat stunningly, decided to enter it 70-odd days ago. In the almost 20 years ”” gulp ”” I have spent following politics closer than close, I’ve never seen anything like the total reversal in how Trump is perceived by Republican voters. It is, quite literally, unprecedented.
Cillizza seems dumbfounded by it. But Ann Althouse has a theory:
I suspect the change is that people have become accustomed to the idea that Trump hasn’t toppled, that the obvious ways of attacking him have failed, so he seems to be a credible candidate. In that sense, the media’s attacks have helped Trump, because he got the opportunity to very conspicuously show how he can stand his ground.
I think she’s correct and that his ability to withstand the onslaught of attacks has caused admiration. But I have an additional theory. I submit that, although Cillizza points out that prior to his candidacy Trump was “totally known and broadly disliked,” he was not known in his role as politician; certainly he wasn’t known that way back in May. Yes, he’d had a few desultory forays into politics before (2011), but who even knew that or paid attention at the time? I certainly didn’t.
When Trump first officially entered the 2016 race, his speech drew fire for his contention that many illegals were criminals (particularly the “rapists” remark), and he was widely criticized in the press and elsewhere because it seemed like such a stupidly incendiary thing to say. They thought it would finish him. But then it turns out that the facts seemed to back him up regarding criminality, and the Kate Steinle murder was a terrible and graphic example to which people could relate.
Trump got to say “See! Told you so!,” and this caused people to wonder whether he was really so off-the-graph after all.
As Trump went on, people became more familiar with him as a candidate. That’s a different thing from being familiar with a person’s business record or his reality-TV performances. As a politician—at least, this time round—he has had an almost uncanny knack for saying things, being ridiculed for them, and then having them come true. He also has demonstrated a remarkable ability to speak off-the-cuff, without notes, in a way that strikes many people as honest, sincere—and above all, likable.
I wrote about Trump’s unexpectedly populist touch here. For a man who was actually born with a silver spoon in his mouth, it’s surprising. But some of the very things the MSM and the “establishment” GOP dislikes him for—his anti-PC bluntness, his bluster, his seemingly stream-of-consciousness speeches—are exactly what give him that common touch for many listeners.
There’s something else going on, too, with his poll numbers. The public has not only gotten used to Trump as candidate, and (as Althouse writes) gotten used to seeing that he can stand his ground, but people have also become accustomed to the ideas he expresses, thoughts that initially may have seemed far out of the mainstream because they hadn’t been commonly voiced by politicians. An end to birthright citizenship for the children of illegals is the sort of issue only talked about previously by Senator Vitter (and relatively obscure bloggers like me), and how many people had ever heard of it before Trump, or knew the arguments pro or con? Trump dragged the idea out into the sunlight to be discussed and dissected, and many people who heard him (and had found it a radical notion at first) decided, once they became familiar with the discussion, that the idea had some merit. Over time, the shock value of Trump’s positions generally has been diluted.
All those things contribute to the Iowans’ change of heart. But is Iowa typical? This article, and the polls it cites, maintains that, overall, Trump’s negatives are still quite high compared to his positives, and he gets a lot of “would never vote for” responses.
One thing is certain: Trump is stumping a lot of people as he continues on the stump.
People – or Republicans at least – are so tired of cowardly mealy mouthed, media grovelling politicians, who, when push actually comes to shove are above all else concerned to preserve their government issued rice bowls, that Trump comes off like an injection of oxygen into a stifling room.
I’m not inclined to vote for him. But if he had actually punched enemy of freedom Jorge Ramos in his face, or had him thrown bodily into the gutter head first, I might have considered it.
He worries me. I think he’ll be a disaster. And for those who claim that he’s electable – so was Schwarzenegger (who I now regret voting for).
Problem is, the media attacks are what’s building him up. If the media would let him alone, and treat him like a “normal” candidate, then I think he would implode. Peggy Noonan’s column in the WSJ last week noted that a Spanish language radio station recorded at least half of the calls they received after the Ramos mess as being in support of Trump. In some ways, he’s the Nemesis for the politically ego-driven media watchdogs that we now suffer under.
One thing’s for sure. The GOP elites are in full panic mode. Bret Stephens of the WSJ writes:
So if you’re not a Jeb! fan, you’re an ignorant child incapable of “class” like John Boehner and Mitch McConnell have. Thanks, Bret, for demonstrating why we’re sick of you guys in the GOPe.
I just don’t understand the alleged media attacks on Trump theme. Admittedly, I only watch one channel, FNC, and that much less than I used to. One reason that I have wandered away is because every time I look at it, I see Donald Trump. If what O’Reilly and Hannity, to name two, are doing is called attacks, I would hate to see a love in.
I wandered away from Limbaugh some time back, but the same with him.
You may ask how do I know if I don’t watch and listen. Unfortunately, my wife thinks she needs to know what is being said. So, I leave the room when I take note of what they are doing. I have barred MSNBC fro the house. A man has to protect his castle-actually no marital disagreement there–so maybe they are attacking Trump for real.
Of course, we all know the story of Br’er Rabbit and the briar patch. I think Trump welcomes any and all media attacks. He knows it makes him look large in the eyes of his folks. Besides, when they are talking about him, they are not talking about the other candidates.
Hopefully, the tantrums will play out and folks will pay attention to other, more rational, candidates as time goes on.
Slightly OT, but just saw that CNN changed their rules to let Fiorina in their debate.
Yes, Peggy Noonan admitted a fascination with Trump and you know what happened last she’d been fascinated by a presidential profile.
First of all, let me say that I have loved and admired Mexican culture. I have been to many of Mexico’s resorts on both coasts, I have driven to San Miguel de Allende and Guanajuato, I have been to Mexico City many times (including once on a train from Nuevo Laredo), and I’ve got tickets to the Ballet Folklorico de Mexico this September, etc., etc.
But…….
I don’t like the political traditions of Latin America. Period. I like the good ole Anglo Saxon traditions of the English speaking world.
So when Trump says he will deport (humanely) illegal immigrants from Latin America it strikes a chord with me. I see Latins growing in numbers around me in Texas and I know how they will usually vote – for the Democrats. And I think that spells doom for our republic.
I know that isn’t PC, but I don’t care….that’s how I feel.
Trump is the only one of the candidates who dares to say that.
I predict that if Trump should win the GOP nomination, he’ll win. This is gonna be a turnout election and neither Hillary, nor Biden, nor Sanders can get the required turnout to win.
A lot of politicians seem to be getting groomed by the DC bureaucrats, so they tend to be… stiff. Palin and Bush II both seemed different when giving speeches and formal interviews in which they were supposedly “coached”. Palin off the cuff or Bush II off the cuff with his “bring it on” response, was much more natural and felt more patriotic, less like a treasonous Leftist.
Noonan’s a weakling. She’ll vote for a yellow dog if it had Authority.
Trump, by not being limited in this fashion, presumably because he never allows anyone to tell him to moderate his comments in public, seems more genuine to the people who have become disillusioned and betrayed by the powers that be.
Trump is a walking caricature. But he is the one who called bullshit on illegal immigration being a third rail. And he hasn’t been cowed by the PC onslaught. And people are responding. I wish it was Walker or Cruz doing this but someone needed to. My fear is that Trump is really just another pragmatist who will reject with bombast the progressives’ latest folly, then endorse it after a fig leaf has been strategically placed.
P.S. If Mitt Romney tries to place himself as the anti-Trump, I hope the Donald bitch slaps him back into 2012. (I liked you and voted for you Mitt, but you pulled your punches when it counted. During the debate, you should have been revealing Obama for the power-lusting nihilist that he is, not complimenting his family.)
The Iowa caucus rarely picks the eventual nominee. Being first in the nation is a pain. Because we have a relatively small population, spread out over 99 counties, the candidates crisscross the state for months and months. Mid-October our landline phone will ring 6 to 10 times a day with robo calls. It will be worse than usual given the number of candidates. We will not be answering the phone until afterwards.
But the value of IA is that candidates like Fiorina get national exposure as the msm swarms cover the campaign excessively. And, Carson is closing in on the donald in the latest IA polls. His demeanor is an anodyne to trumps’ bluster and narcissism. Carson can win Iowa if he campaigns wisely.
P.S. If Mitt Romney tries to place himself as the anti-Trump, I hope the Donald bitch slaps him back into 2012. (I liked you and voted for you Mitt, but you pulled your punches when it counted. During the debate, you should have been revealing Obama for the power-lusting nihilist that he is, not complimenting his family.)
———————-
Not this nonsense again. Romney isn’t running. The only people talking him up are supporters who think they can generate a groundswell that will make him feel compelled to enter the race.
I’m getting tired of seeing conservatives freak out every time another “Romney’s thinking about running again!!1!” rumor starts up.
I am not a Trump fan; however, I applaud what he’s been doing so far: saying things that many Americans are thinking or saying that DC and the media have told us we are no longer allowed to say. While he’s been great on immigration, he’s also making comments about things like the treatment of war heroes vs. Bowie Bergdahl and the ridiculousness of Hillary’s email server. It helps that after these comments he is not backing down or apologizing despite push-back from other candidates and the media.
This is so refreshing after the watching Boehner and McConnell take the victories handed to them in 2014 and…accomplish nothing that stops Obama.
Those in the media who tell Trump supporters they’re stupid don’t seems to take into consideration that a lot of these same people have been treated like rubes by the GOP for years. The GOP claims to be the “big tent” party but then distance themselves from anything too conservative, especially social issues, where they lecture their base that they must “evolve.” This despite watching Obama break laws to encourage mass illegal immigration, and the Left using social issues such as same-sex marriage and HHS’s birth control mandate to needlessly harass religious institutions and private citizens of faith.
So who is stupid, the guy who keeps getting suckered into voting for GOP candidates with conservative stances that only surface in an election year, or the guy who has not always been conservative but is passionate enough about current issues to boldly voice his opinion and not back down now? It’s a gamble, but is it any more of a gamble than voting for the anointed candidate Jeb, who is fairly in line with the Left on key issues like immigration, and who can’t seem to display that he has any fight in him?
Most comments I’ve seen about Trump support what he’s dong as a candidate more than the idea of him actually winning. Apparently our pundits can’t differentiate between the two. But we’re the stupid ones, huh?
A Bret Stephens column worth a read — The Donald and the Demagogues: Democracies that trade substance for charisma don’t last. Trump is America’s answer to Hugo Ché¡vez
If the Republican establishment would republicate, we wouldn’t NEED to like Trump.
Well said, Lizzy, well said.
Hillaryis44.org has a fascinating take on The Donald and the Republican party and why he is doing so well. They support him fully.
Actually, I think Donald Trump is a real-life version of Denny Crane.
He says what he (presumably) thinks. Sometimes what he says is simply intended to get a rise out of his adversary. He has shown his willingness to fly in the face of convention. He just doesn’t give a damn about criticism from the press. He believes a billionaire can pick a fight with someone who “buys ink by the barrel. He is currently inimitable, or at least not currently imitated by any of the GOP grandstanders.
Even the rhythm of saying their names is the same: Den-ny Crane! Don-ald Trump!
“Hillaryis44.org [supports] him fully.:
Perhaps at their own peril.
Hillary44 supports the donald because the donald is trying to clear the field.
I thought Donald Trump was a joke. I never watched his TV show. I briefly met one of his ex-wives at an Encores event at City Center in NY. But, other than that, I didn’t know much about him.
My wife and I recently went to NYC to get an Opera/Broadway fix. Had a wonderful time. One evening, after “Donna Del Largo”, we were surfing the hotel TV to find something to watch. Saw this show with Tony Bennett and some woman singing classic jazz numbers. We had no idea who she was but we liked her command of the material, her style and her pipes. We are Opera/Broadway/Orchestra people; Pop just washes over our heads. So, imagine our surprise, when the credits rolled, to learn we had been loving Lady GaGa.
So, we tune into the GOP debate and watch Trump do a Lady GaGa for us. We’ve long thought that Mexico exports its poverty to the US and reaps the rewards in remittances. Trump basically said that is how they are smarter than us. Mexico exploits the USA. The fact that Illegal immigrants comprise 3.5% of the population but 35% of the prison population confirms something else Trump said. Mexico is sending its criminals to America so we bear the cost of incarcerating them.
Nations build fences for two reasons. To keep people in or keep people out. East Germany built the Berlin wall to keep people in. I actually saw the wall when I went to Berlin in the early 80s. Israel has built an effective wall to keep terrorists out. There is no reason why the US cannot have an effective wall.
Here’s a scenario you need to think about. Here’s the lead-up. Marathon runners in the Detroit marathon cross into Canada. On the return leg, one of them tripped a radiation monitor. She’d had radiation treatment and tripped the alarm. I may not have the details exactly right; it is from memory, not Google.
So our Northern border is protected from people smuggling in dirty bombs and nuclear weapons. Our Southern border is completely unprotected. With the aid of drug cartels, Iran could bring dozens of nuclear weapons into the US. When they chant, “Death to America”, do you think they are joking? Do you think Obama’s complete cave in to the Ayatollahs will discourage them? They will see it as victory granted by Allah. The US needs a secure Southern border. Common sense people know it. Maybe not liberal journalists, but that is not who Trump is appealing to.
The GOP strategy is to field enough candidates that Jeb Bush’s low poll numbers get split. “Split the vote to keep Jeb afloat” is their mantra. Donald Trump is destroying that strategy. Which means he knows the GOP strategy and is working to defeat it. When he says “treat me fairly” he is telling the GOP, and its master, the Chamber of Commerce, that he will spend what it takes to beat them at this game.
Trump is a smart guy, a patriot and a man who knows how politicians work; he’s had to buy so many in his time.
So, I’m giving him the benefit of the doubt. for now, and just enjoying what he is doing to the GOP establishment (which I loathe, despise and cannot stomach)
Did someone say Denny Crane?
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_KvO-8IvoCI
heh
The GOP strategy is to field enough candidates that Jeb Bush’s low poll numbers get split. “Split the vote to keep Jeb afloat” is their mantra. Donald Trump is destroying that strategy. Which means he knows the GOP strategy and is working to defeat it. When he says “treat me fairly” he is telling the GOP, and its master, the Chamber of Commerce, that he will spend what it takes to beat them at this game.
—————-
Trump has nothing to do with beating Jeb. Jeb is killing Jeb. Jeb’s appearance in the Fox debate did more to damage him than anything else to date. People got a look at him for the first time, and the overwhelming response seems to have been, “This guy doesn’t really want to be president.”
Further, Trump isn’t the only one beating Jeb in the polls. There’s no need for the non-conservative who opposes an amnesty to ride in on his white horse and save us from the non-conservative who favors some form of amnesty.
Junior, you have the timing and strategy confused. Trump was not a factor when the campaign started. The GOP Elite realized that Bush was a weak candidate and would poll poorly; maybe 20% max, but he was their man. They changed the rules to make it easy for him to gain a huge lead in delegates early in the process. To make him look better, they got a bunch of other RINOs to run, maybe with promises of VP slots, who knows? Why else would Rubio run against his friend and mentor?
So, when the polls would show Bush is leading with 20% while the other guys split 80% ten different ways, Bush would look good. That was the GOP elite’s plan.
Trump, Carson, and Fiorina completely destroyed their playbook. What the GOP elite didn’t understand is that the conservative base, that gave the GOP great victories in 2010 and 2014, feels totally betrayed by the likes of McConnell and Boehner. We sent conservative sounding candidates to DC and they turn into pigs sucking Washington’s hind tit. (Cruz excepted).
Junior, there are virtually no conservatives in the Senate or House. They said they were when we voted for them, but they lied.
I don’t care where Trump stands on the Conservative scales; almost all of the GOP office holders turn out to be featherweights when push comes to shove. (Cruz excepted).
And we know why, thanks to Peter Schweizer. His last two books document the complete corruption of DC. The purest of pure GOP candidates has already been bought. Their highest priority is re-election and getting rich donors to finance that. The rest is Kabuki theater.
It is little different on the Democrat side; probably worse because their donors are billionaire socialists and environmental wackoes.
The ONE virtue of Trump, the multi billionaire is he isn’t bought and can’t be bought. That is unique.
Julia NYC 11:50 PM:
TY for the link. Fascinating article about Trump and much more. It takes about 10-12 minutes to read for a slow reader like me, but well worth it.
http://www.hillaryis44.org/ is the link.
The basic thesis is that Trump has irretrievably changed the national political dynamic by speaking what large majorities consider (and is) the truth. Both parties are affected.
Here is a small excerpt:
Why should a middle class conservative support the low wage policies of the Chamber of Commerce? Why should a working class conservative fight to protect the tax deduction privileges of those super-wealthy who live off a corrupt political system and have as their goal a low wage society? Why should a liberal support a low wage society which hurts the poor and the middle class via illegal immigration amnesty? Why should a liberal tolerate the totalitarian state speech codes that silence free speech?
I might say (this is my own opinion) Trump might be the vindication of Pat Buchanan’s nationalist perspective.
Also: I have to say I absolutely love the Web Sisters. They are funny and pointed. Their take down of Megyn Kelly is hilarious.
They love Trump.
http://www.inquisitr.com/2340593/diamond-and-silk-the-we-be-sisters-stump-for-trump-in-viral-videos/
I have long believed black Americans are natural conservatives, much more so than white Americans.
Trump might actually be a person who connects with black Americans in a way which breaks through the phony leftist narrative.
PatD – I agree with your comments 100%.
The fact that DT has removed himself from the GOP campaign financing racket is possible because of his personal wealth.
I wonder how this might affect the financing of future campaigns?
Maggie:
Only multi-billionaires will be able to run for president and be supported by the right?
Oh, that will work out really well.
As it is now, it’s just multi-millionaires who are supported by either party (or so it sometimes seems; I know that’s not actually true).
Someone who agreed with Kelo is not someone I want in the White House. There are a lot of other Trump positions that I also don’t like, but Kelo is one that should be setting off alarms throughout the conservative sphere.
No on Trump.
@neo-neocon: So, we are between a rock and a hard place. The only people who can run are successful capitalists or someone picked by the crony-capitalists who run the GOP. But a candidate who reconnects with conservative voters might bring true conservative candidates to the fore.
@texexec
I’m spanish. Well, I’m basque. Basque Country is like a “little Germany” inside Spain (there was a lot basque immigration in Boise, Idaho, in US). So I watch Spain a bit like a half-foreigner.
And, even I love the country, I have to say you’re right. Latin countries are a bloody disaster. If you leave US become a latin country, you’re doomed.
Don’t get me wrong. It’s not all bad. In general, latin people are highly adaptable. They (or we, though I see myself more as a basque) integrate VERY well. But that only works when there’s a limited number of immigrants. When you reach a certain point, you don’t have immigrants adapting anymore, but growing communities that keep and transmit their old uses and ways of doing things, no matter they live in a different country.
Denny Crane!
Hey, life imitates art sometimes.
I actually thought Denny Crane was Shatner’s best performance (and as a kid I loved Star Trek).
News today shows Trump signing a pledge to not run as a third party candidate.
While I’m not sure I would trust this pledge (I could certainly see him claiming later on that circumstances have changed and the country is calling out for his help) It will be interesting to see if this helps his standing in the polls. I could see a lot of folks not wanting to support him because he seems to be doing a lot of damage to the GOP; but, if he claims that he would support the eventual GOP nominee, even if it isn’t him, then I think a lot more folks might support him.
Will have to wait to see.
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Basque Country is like a “little Germany” inside Spain (there was a lot basque immigration in Boise, Idaho, in US).
It’s amazing that the culture survived the Islamic invasion and occupation of Spain for so many centuries. I would have thought it would have been wiped out by now. Although I’m sure Islamic evil has contaminated some of the cultural development by now. The whole “Latin” thing is partially a result of how they responded the Islamic overlords of Spain for so many centuries before they got expelled out via the Reconquest.