More thoughts on Ben Carson as candidate
I don’t want to make too much of a single poll, but this recent one by Quinnipiac indicates some very interesting trends about Ben Carson’s support. Carson is leading the field nationally in that poll when pitted against Clinton (as he is in many polls at the moment, and as are several other Republican candidates). But if you look at his numbers, his secret in surpassing the other Republican candidates against Hillary is in his support among two groups of voters: women and black people.
Carson doesn’t draw more black voters than Clinton does; there’s still a huge advantage for Hillary over all the Republicans with that demographic, which has voted overwhelmingly Democratic for many decades. But Carson pulls more black voters away from her than any of the other candidates do: 73% for Hillary and 19% for Carson. That’s a big shift from Obama’s 93% share of black voters in 2012.
Carson’s not the only one who does somewhat better with black voters than Romney did; in fact, all the Republican candidates asked about in the poll do at least slightly better. But Trump only gets 6% to Clinton’s 91% in this poll, which makes Trump’s showing among blacks worse than, for example, Cruz’s (81% for Hillary, 8% for Cruz). Not all the Republican candidates were mentioned in this poll, but of the ones who were, Christie was closest to Carson among black voters at 77% for Hillary and 17% for Christie.
As for women voters, Carson really does well with them in this poll, actually beating Hillary among them by a 1% margin, 45% to 44%. That’s startling, since Hillary’s reported strength is that it’s women who are her most stalwart supporters. And they usually are, so far—unless she’s running against Carson.
Why is this, I wonder? Is it Carson’s kindly, soft-spoken fatherly doctor mien that has special appeal to women? Whatever it is, with female voters Carson’s running very competitively against Hillary, who beats Christie among women by 4 points, Cruz by 9, Rubio by 4, and Trump by a whopping 20 points (Trump does somewhat better with men than the others, who also do well with men, but it doesn’t make up for his low support with women).
In trying to account for Dr. Carson’s popularity in general, his likability and low negatives are the first thing that comes to mind. His honesty is also apparent. His dramatic and inspiring personal story grabs people and makes them admire him, as well.
But there’s another factor I haven’t seen talked about very much, and it’s something I think counts for a great deal of his appeal: he’s the un-Obama. He’s the matter to Obama’s anti-matter (or vice-versa, if you prefer), the person most able to undo the Obama years, not so much in policy (although there’s that) as in persona. I’m talking about something emotional—and, like it or not, elections have a large emotional component.
If Obama has been a black man who fosters racial divisiveness, Carson is a black man who offers racial healing. Obama talked that “let’s come together” talk when he ran for president, and some people actually believed him. But he hasn’t walked that walk; au contraire. Carson says similar unifying things, but it feels as though it could actually happen (or we could at least begin to move in that direction) if he were president. It’s as though much of the country feels he offers a chance to do it over again, and to get it right this time.
Carson is certainly aware of his possible advantage with black voters, and what it could mean. I had already written the bulk of this post when I saw that Carson has released a rap ad to appeal to young, urban black voters (which is not his usual demographic of Christians, younger families, and women over 40):
The Carson campaign is convinced that if he gets 20 percent of the black vote, Hillary Clinton would not win if they are head to head in the general election…
The campaign says it will pursue this medium and particularly this demographic aggressively, especially through the March primaries.
Of course, now that Carson has come up in the polls, a Palinesque attack is being mounted on him as being an ignorant, Bible-toting fanatic, playing up his belief that the pyramids were originally built to store grain.
Highly relevant to the presidency, right? But it elicits the expected responses, such as this one in the comments section of the just-linked article, “This religious nut job scares me more than ISIS.”
Perhaps Hillary Clinton is scared, too, but for a different reason.
I saw a “graph” by a left-wing site that purported to rank the truthfulness of the Presidential candidates. Clinton and Sanders were at the top, which is laughable.
But what surprised me was that Carson was rated as the worst… far, far worse than Trump as the second worst, who himself was significantly worse than the rest of the crowd.
I can see someone accusing Trump of lying a lot, because he’s always shooting off his mouth and engaging in hyperbole, but this criticism of Carson, along with the whole “nutjob” narrative is a little odd.
I mean, it’s not odd in that I expect the Alinksyite strategy to be applied against any Republican, but that Carson is already being targeted. People make fun of Trump, but with Carson it seems more visceral.
the same people hated and were scared of W… who then won reelection. 🙂
re: their Palin games don’t always work.
Conceptjunkie:
I think Carson is one of their worst nightmares, much more than Trump. I really do. His race is what makes him so inthinkable in their minds: a successful, brilliant, and yet religious black man who is conservative. If they lose a significant amount of the black vote, they’re goners—and they know it.
That’s why he must be destroyed. But I think he’s so squeaky clean that the usual approach—accusing the black conservative of sexual misbehavior—won’t work. I think it’s still their ace in the hole, even if they have to manufacture it. I suppose we’ll see.
Neo, you’ve written an excellent analysis here. Carson is not my perfect candidate. None of them are. But he comes closest. While there are a few jabs at him from Republicans, the real hit pieces are from Democrats. This is telling. Also I’m sure you have noticed how they are treating Trump with kid gloves, at least until he is nominated.
I heard about the pyramids thing for the first time yesterday, and at first I blew it off as a non-issue, but as I thought more about it, I’m not so sure. The idea of the pyramids as granaries is so clearly wrong. Like, if he said, “Yeah, I blew that. It was a goofball idea I had fifteen years ago”, then fine, no harm no foul.
But he says it’s still his belief! That’s what gets me about this. For him to cling so tenaciously to an idea that can be effortlessly disproved by a few minutes on google, which he could just as well staff out, or by just talking to one or two knowledgeable people… that means something.
Especially when the consequence of admitting he was wrong is literally zero. He doesn’t have to give up his belief in the Joseph story; it never specifies that the pyramids were granaries. I’ve got more respect for young earth creationists who cling to a literal six day creation, because at least giving up that belief costs *something*. You have to re-think your theology, and that’s not something to do lightly.
But this pyramids thing… I don’t know. I think it’s a real point of concern.
Dave:
More on Carson and the pyramids.
Please read theory number 1 in thls list. Not so crazy (although this site calls it a ‘bizarre’ theory). It’s been around for centuries this idea. Also, I’ve heard mention of a certain pyramid that was built on top of granaries. Anyway, it’s not 100% wacko.
http://io9.com/10-bizarre-theories-about-the-pyramids-that-dont-involv-1648634533
Here’s another site where they discuss this issue. They could be kooks, but there is detail: https://josephandisraelinegypt.wordpress.com/category/grain-silos-2/
Ah, here is a video about Saqqara and the theory of grain storage under the pyramid: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VV04chNHt9k
Whoops. not under, but nearby. And if you watch the whole video they show now the granaries worked. Anyway, interesting.
The Hebrew slave built [grain] stores of Pythom and Ramses in Exodus http://biblehub.com/exodus/1-11.htm and of course Joseph’s grain stores that prevented famine during a 7 year drought? He might be conflating the two but it’s interesting to see how reporters who despise everything about the Bible and religion are suddenly Biblical scholars.
I’m surprised the media haven’t picked up on the fact that Carson’s closest advisor, Armstrong Williams, was an aide and advisor to Strom Thurmond. If that ever does get some play, I’d think it would work mightily against Carson’s picking up much support from the black community.
Now, some media are attacking stories that he nearly killed another boy by finding people who remember him as a “peaceful” kid.
As said, they must pull him down.
I still believe that when it is time to actually vote for someone to govern, it will not be Carson or Trump. But, just by being what he is, in all respects, and receiving respectful attention from Republicans across the country, Carson serves the party and country well.
Given the facts, I too find troubling Carson’s continued insistance that the pyramids might have been Joseph’s graneries. As it places dogma above fact, logic and reason.
Another indication of Carson’s troubling dogmatic certainty is revealed in the article linked to by neo @ 2:57
“And see that’s the wonderful thing about having a relationship with God. God has already told us what happened, so we don’t have to come up with fanciful theories (physical origin of the universe) so that we can take the place of God. We don’t have to do that.” Ben Carson
Wondering how his theories about the pyramids would impact his job as president? (hint: it won’t)
I don’t remember a single presidential decision that relied on the truth about the pyramids.
I’m hearing a greater level of animosity from white liberals toward Carson than what had them screaming racism at the top of their lungs when it was directed at Obama. Not that anyone is surprised by that.
neo-neocon, very good analysis. I haven’t seen anyone put this all together regarding Carson, like you have here.
It is for similar reasons that I think a lot of GOP folks would like to see Rubio get the nomination (does well with women and minorities).
Although she continues to be excellent it seems like Fiorina has peaked. I’ve often suspected many Americans are not accepting of strong, decisive women as leaders, and I think we are seeing that with her and Hillary.
Many years ago my father told me he suspected we would never have a black President in his or my lifetime. I laughed and told him I was certain we would have a black President within 20 years, but I thought it would be a long time before we saw a Jewish or female President. I’m glad to see I was right about Americans’ acceptance of blacks, but sad that my perception of anti-semitism and acceptance of female leaders appears to be correct.
Oddly, I think more women are leery of female leaders than men are.
If Carson and Fiorina can crack through some of the tribal loyalties of the left, it may be more important than their becoming president. Just as the people in Houston have told the transgender nuts to shut up, maybe Carson and Fiorina will inspire others to turn on the common sense lobe of their brains once in a while.
On the other hand, some people may be so sick of Trump’s bragging, they may just want someone quiet for a change.
Polls are just propaganda designed to manipulate the masses.
How exactly did the Pharoahs feed all these slaves that were supposed to have built the pyramids?
The kooks are the idiots who think the Authorities can tell them what happened in a past they never lived in, and are too incompetent to figure out for themselves.
Personally I don’t give a caca about anyone’s theories about the pyramids. I only care about the innate character of POTUS. Is he/she a good person or a scoundrel matters to me. We could do far worse than Carson.
BTW, anyone more scarded of Ben Carson than ISIS needs to be parachuted into ISIS territory bearing a tattoo on their forehead that states f*ck the prophet and the camel he rode in on. Lambs to the slaughter. I will donate $5000 for airfare.
The Left keeps branding conservatives as anti-science, or anti-intellectual, but then they believe Caitlyn Jenner is a woman. Kinda crazy.
Missing above is the fact that Carson embodies and talks about his values. He appeals to American culture and America’s exceptional values – and therefore that anyone can “make it” and become successful, given proper habits and self-responsibility.
He is a paragon of Protestant values that uphold Americanism. Thus, in a quieter voice, much of Ronald Reagan.
Dream ticket: Ben Carson and Ted Cruz. Let the left attack a brilliant brain surgeon and a Harvard Law grad as stupid. It won’t fly. And what Carson lacks in debate skills Cruz makes up for double. Identity politics is their game? We give them a black man and an Hispanic. As someone else said about the prospect of Carson winning, their heads would explode.
That wouldn’t do anything if the anti Left and conservatives refused to attack the Left using the Left’s own rule book.