Cruz’s Iowa star rises…
…as Carson’s sinks—a bit, anyway:
Mr. Cruz, the Republican Texas senator, was the choice of 23 percent of likely Republican caucusgoers in the new poll, from Quinnipiac University, following Mr. Trump at 25 percent and ahead of Mr. Carson at 18 percent. Senator Marco Rubio of Florida was in fourth with 13 percent.
I expect a lot of up and down to continue in the Republican field. Notice this, too: “The margin of error was plus or minus four percentage points.” That means the the three leaders in Iowa are pretty much neck and neck and neck.
The Times ascribes Cruz’s rise to his hardline on terrorism in the wake of the Paris attacks. I suppose that might be true—even if it is in the Times. But I think it’s also the case that the concerted campaign to discredit Carson has drawn blood, and evangelicals who have growing doubts about Carson would be likely to veer to Cruz.
It just shows that Americans keep falling for the Leftist propaganda, and thus do not deserve “salvation” without the requisite sacrifices.
It also shows that polls and primaries are too easy for the Leftist alliance to manipulate.
Bout time neo. As I said before, Trump has no more upside. It will come down to Cruz or Rubio. Cruz will win Texas, and most of the other delegates on SEC Tuesday. If he steals Iowa early, look for him to do same in SC and nevada, game over. If he loses Iowa and Rubio wins NH, its a horse race.
Trump will get 20% in first 2, then fade away. He will not throw his money away. He is a bidness MAN. The question is to whom will he throw his support? My bet is Cruz because he is being very careful not to insult the followers of anyone else.
Ymarsakar-WTF are you talking about?
I think Cruz has been very shrewd about handling the field. He’s paced himself to not be a flash-in-the-pan, and has not burned any bridges with Trump so he will be the most natural beneficiary if Trump drops out.
As I said before, I think the camps have solidified and we won’t see much movement until people start dropping out from lack of funds or poor showings in the first two primaries.
wtf are you talking about jim boy. That’s the issue.
http://www.oftwominds.com/blognov15/political-disunity11-15.html
Interesting link on fratricide at the top of the greasy pole.
&&&
I remember someone mentioning that this could very likely happen.
Oh, yes, that was I.
Cruz is now just over the shoulder of Trump.
The record is clear, one wants to be in the top two coming out of Iowa.
I think Cruz will do very well in New Hampshire.
Trump’s greatest strength is that every evidence indicates that he pulls VERY heavily from the Democrat camp — far more than Cruz.
Cruz is certain to be an outstanding administrator.
The question left is: can he dig into Hitlery’s support ?
I have not seen any polling on that dynamic.
Polls are indicating that if Trump vs Hitlery were decided right this day, he’d prevail.
And that trend is steadily building.
We have to put aside our ‘take’ and accept that we’re out numbered by the Low Involvement Voter.
They just love Trump.
blert:
Why leave out the other candidates?
The poll that shows Trump winning is by Fox News. At the moment (and public opinion is a changeable thing), it shows Trump ahead of Clinton +5, Cruz ahead of Clinton +4, Rubio ahead of Clinton +8, Carson ahead of Clinton +5, Bush (remember him?) ahead of Clinton +6, and Christie ahead of Clinton +3.
In other words, right now the Republicans all beat Clinton, but Rubio is her strongest opponent. The others are quite close to each other (with Christie weaker) in terms of their showing against Clinton, including Trump.
By the way, even before that particular poll, Rubio has consistently polled better than all the others against Clinton.
blert:
No, you are wrong about Trump pulling from the Democratic camp. The polls I’ve read that ask about Democratic support for the Republican candidates (don’t have time to look them all up now, but here’s one) indicate that is not the case at all. Trump is very weak with Independents as well—-probably weaker than any of the other major GOP candidates.
If all our candidates beat Hillary, then we get to pick whom we want. “Electability” is no longer a factor.
Matt_SE:
If you believe the polls, and if those polls hold.
I would be very happy if the polls did hold. I would even be happier if every single GOP candidate opened up a very wide lead on Hillary.
As Cruz rises, the Birthers are starting to awaken: https://www.facebook.com/permalink.php?story_fbid=849143231865871&id=210598158304
GRA:
The birthers have never been fully asleep. But I certainly expect them to get very active if Cruz (or Rubio, for that matter) starts leading or threatening to lead in the polls.
I wonder if Trump will become a Cruz or Rubio birther. Now, that would be a sight to see. And not a pretty one, I might add.
“the concerted campaign to discredit Carson has drawn blood, and evangelicals who have growing doubts about Carson would be likely to veer to Cruz.”
It’s so much fun to a) watch character assassination, especially of a person of remarkable character and accomplishments, and b) get into the brains of huge groups of people (evangelicals) that we really do not know much about. Did you know there is an evangelical movement in the Catholic Church? Evangelicals are not all Protestants. What does “evangelical” even mean?
While without a doubt there has been a “concerted campaign” to undermine Carson, I suspect that the shift in votes from Carson to Cruz may have less to do with that than with the facts that 1) likable and decent as Carson may be his policy prescriptions are a bit fuzzy and 2) Cruz’ pugnacious manner suddenly seems a lot more fitting in the wake of Paris.
As Cruz approaches frontrunner status, or at least emerges as the main challenger to Trump, undoubtedly the guns will now be trained on him. But I’ve got a hunch he has anticipated this and will know how to respond.
Frog:
I assume you know how to look things up yourself, but just in case, here.
As for “getting in the brains of huge groups of people,” I’m basing it not on some wild speculation, but on many many articles I’ve been reading for months. I’ve never written about the topic of Carson, Cruz, and evangelicals before this post, but it’s been discussed and polled and studied by others whose business it is to “get in the brains of huge groups of people.” It’s called “polling.”
See this, which was written a month ago:
Then there are more recent articles such as this one.
If you try Googling the topic, you may be surprised at how much you find on it.
I’d have to assume that Rubio’s Democrat strength is due to his Gang of Eight publicity.
I’m with Cruz and Trump and Carson: we’ve got too much immigration — especially of Muslims.
Our American Republic is in danger of becoming Brazil — oh so fast.
Blert
Tried to ask the oil tariff question to Marco and Carly yesterday and I was never called on. Disappointed.
Dang.
Have you all been taking notice of how extremely small the sample sizes of these polls are? Often less than 1000 people and usually under 500!! This when the news organ even displays the sample size at the bottom, many times it isn’t even listed.
No wonder there have been big unpredicted upsets after the vote.
These polls are no longer true reflections of community thought.