Turkey shoots down Russian military aircraft near Syria
This story is still breaking, and it’s hard to sort out all the facts. But one fact that seems clear is that it has great potential to lead to a serious conflagration:
Turkish warplanes have shot down a Russian military aircraft on the border with Syria.
Russian President Vladimir Putin said the Su-24 was hit by air-to-air missiles fired by Turkish F-16s while it was flying over Syrian territory.
But Turkish military officials said the plane was engaged after being warned that it was violating Turkish airspace.
Mr Putin described the incident as a “stab in the back” committed by “accomplices of terrorists”.
The crew ejected before the jet crashed in Latakia province, but Syrian rebels said at least one was dead.
It reminds me of those logic riddles where you have to figure out which of several groups is telling the truth: who is trustworthy, who is not? Sometimes the answer is: no one is trustworthy.
Turkey is a NATO country, and NATO is meeting. Where? In otherwise locked-down Brussels, of course.
Since the area over Syria is a war zone, there’s been more violence reported:
General staff spokesman Lt. Gen. Sergei Rudskoi, added that rebels in Syria fired on a Russian helicopter that was searching for the two pilots of the Su-24.
The shooting killed one crew member on the Mi-8 helicopter and forced it to land in neutral territory, he says.
Russia and Turkey are arguing over where the first plane was when shot down. Turkey says over Turkey, while Russia says over Syria. Putin said:
“Our pilots and our plane did not in any way threaten Turkey. It is quite clear,” he added.
“They were carrying out an operation against [Islamic State militants] in the mountains of northern Latakia, where militants who originate from Russian territory are concentrated. So they were carrying the key task of preventative attacks against those who could return to Russia at any time.”
I assume we’ll learn more as time goes on.
This has the potential to turn real ugly very fast. Vlad will strike back. Hard.
Then what does Obama do for NATO ally Turkey? Obviously nothing.
“Turkey shoots down Russian military aircraft.” Finally, after 400 years, they appear to be getting even for Thanksgiving. Oh … wait. That’s the country.
To stupid, arrogant dictators, made from the same shit, Erdogan and Putin, can do lot of harm without any real military objective. They simply try to use military for propaganda goals, boosting their ratings among stupid and ignorant domestic populations.
Turkey told us we could use their territory to jump in another US military division to link up with the Kurds. Then Turkey’s Muslim leaders waited until the last possible minute, and called it off.
Turkey has been planning on using Muslims for quite some time now. After all, the Ottoman Empire was built upon Islam’s slave raiding economies.
Russia hasn’t really been hitting ISIS, they’ve been hitting the anti-Assad “rebels.” Turkey doesn’t like that, as they want Assad overthrown as part of their bid for regional hegemony. Of course, that’s not an adequate reason to shoot down a Russian fighter.
Nobody will ever know what really happened there.
Bernard:
Continuing your meme: “as God is my witness, I thought turkeys could fly.”
My theory is that this is Russia’s Gulf of Tonkin moment.
snopercod:
If you are suggesting that the Gulf of Tonkin was contrived, provoked, or lied about (not sure if you are or are not), see this.
Richard Fernandez posits that geopolitical conditions today and prior to WWI bear striking similarities.
Talk about a prescient prediction…
However, the trouble with that otherwise compelling analysis is that neither NATO nor the USA have any intention of honoring any treaty obligations, in which nuclear war is a potential consequence. Under Obama, it’s every man for himself. While “divide and conquer” is one of the oldest of military maxims…
First rhetorical question: not that it’s likely but what would NATO/USA do if Russia retaliated by nuking Ankara?
Obvious answer: nothing beyond bluster
Second rhetorical question: how long before Russia and China realize that NATO/USA will not retaliate, short of a direct attack upon their territory, regardless of the provocation?
Answer: Some must already have reached that conclusion.
Third rhetorical question: how long till either acts on that realization?
Answer: Predators prey upon the weaker.
On another note, the inimitable Daniel Greenfield explaines why: “SYRIANS ARE A NATION OF TERRORIST SUPPORTERS
10,000 Syrian refugees mean [at least] 1,300 ISIS supporters.
“Nobody will ever know what really happened there.” Matt SE
Actually, even now we can surmise quite a lot.
The radar track shows that the Russian jets did cfor 17 seconds, cross over the very tip of Turkey. The same radar track shows that the jet crashed in Syrian territory. The murdered pilots, shot while helplessly parachuting down, landed in Syrian territory.
The Turkish ‘rebels’ also shot down a Russian helicopter attempting to rescue the pilots. They did so with American weapons.
The Pentagon is denying any treaty obligations. Yet, if an attack upon a NATO member is an act of war, then so too is the corollary. Technically, NATO has committed an act of war against Russia.
There are two major factions in the Syrian civil war; Assad and ISIS. Russia/Iran is helping Assad, so too is Obama/Erdogan helping ISIS.
Monstrous ‘strong man’ or religious fanatics are the sole choices in the ME.
The magic of open source data mining brings us this information.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nLIFT6cTkJU
These are the anti Assad “freedom fighting rebels” Democrats in the US have funded and armed.
youtube.com/watch?v=FEJmerHGfMg
youtube.com/watch?v=cfU3dHIwVxg
This is why I said time is up.
Civil War II is inevitable. And that’s the best case scenario. That doesn’t exclude another world war. That doesn’t exclude Europe falling to Islam first.
Time is up. All these “playing with election stuff” Americans like to escape into with the fantasy of Salvation, time is up, it’s over. Fate is calling. You cannot buy time back.
When the Leftist alliance becomes an ally of Islamic Jihad, they are a force greater than the sum of their parts. People do not truly see, because they don’t to see, what that means.
@ GB
The radar tracks? From the impartial international bureau of radar tracking? Or did these come from Turkish forces? Or NATO forces? Or Russian forces?
Even if we can nail down who provided the tracking, as far as I can tell everyone in this conflict has an incentive to lie. That absolutely includes the US.
Murray Gell-Mann Amnesia Alert: The people providing us with info about this incident are the same people who lied about Fast & Furious, the IRS scandal, and dozens of other incidents.
Matt_SE The Turk Muslims have one version, Russia has another.
The people providing us with info about this incident are the same people who lied about Fast & Furious
Which is why you should get your own intel network and analysis tools.
Also, Matt, the analysis coming from here, aren’t the same ones as what people swallowed from the Leftist alliance. There is a difference.
History shows that in the past, where Russian troops were, US troops and allies tended to stay far away. exceptions were in Afghanistan, and when Russia loaned troops to fly plains or operate as part of another military
Given personality, i figured Big Lord Obama would pish tosh such prior paranoia…
Matt_SE,
I referred to the Turk’s released radar tracks, who certainly have every incentive to portray the Russians as guilty. That track shows the Russian jets crossing over the very tip of Turkish territory for approx. 17 seconds. Given that the pilots ejected over Syrian territory, by the time the Russian jet was hit, it was almost certainly over Syrian territory.
The Russians were not bombing in Turkish territory. Technically, the Turk’s actions are defensible. However, they invite future confrontation.
Now here is the way a peace keeper keeps peace:
Obama pokes Putin, says jet shoot-down part of ‘ongoing problem’ with Russians
http://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2015/nov/24/obama-pokes-putin-says-jet-shoot-down-points-ongoi/
In the very famous western treatise On War, it is pointed out that such things happen when one side says it wants the other to do something and is refused.
Principles and rules are intended to provide a thinking man with a frame of reference.
Carl von Clausewitz
These are also what makes the walls of the box they keep telling you to think out of…
and for a frisson chill
Never forget that no military leader has ever become great without audacity.
Carl von Clausewitz
Wars are easy to start, its finishing them that’s the hard part…
Posted elsewhere:
The shoot-down is madness.
It wouldn’t matter if Russia actually was flying over Turkish air space.
Russia is not bombing Turkey, or anything else.
I actually believe that the Russians were crossing Turkey.
The single ‘nose’ sticking south is so trivial (unoccupied) that the short cut seemed harmless to the pilot.
It’s a pretty good bet that the Turks DID warn the Russians over and over – but not on this occasion.
(It’ be patently impossible.)
What’s been happening is that the Russians have gotten used to crossing that stub of land – and the bitching of the Turks.
[ Further, I’d be willing to bet that more than one Su-24 was whipping on through. A string of ‘cross-overs’ punched Erdogan’s buttons. ]
The above sequence explains why the Pentagon believes the Turks’ version of events.
The Russian, so-called, flight trace looks like it was drawn with a propaganda marker.
The Turkish trace looks like a digital download from their radar net. It’s MUCH more credible.
The Turks should’ve let such trivial transgressions slide. They stand as nothing compared to the meddling that Erdogan has engaged in.
Hollande is chilling Putin; Barry is chilling Erdogan.
I rather doubt that Erdogan or Putin will climb back down.
I see them doubling down.
This is where Barry’s treason is leading us.
International affairs are a blot on Hitlery’s record.
She took a big dump on Moscow and Damascus and Baghdad.
This stink is the result.
NATO ambassadors to Turkey: Why didn’t you just escort that Russian plane out of your airspace?
um… ahhh… one second…
Diplomats present at the meeting told Reuters that while none of the 28 NATO envoys defended Russia’s actions, many expressed concern that Turkey did not escort the Russian warplane out of its airspace.
Neo–
I don’t know if the Gulf of Tonkin incident was real or faked, but I do know it was used a justification for a massive escalation of the war. This article from historynet.com relies on information from the NSA which was declassified in 2007. It says the whole deal was a miscommunication – confusing a South Vietnam raid on the North for a North Vietnam attack on the Maddox. Based upon the NSA material, it looks like the first patrol boat attack on the Maddox actually happened, but the second one – which LBJ used to escalate the war – did not.
Getting back to the topic at hand, it wouldn’t surprise me at all if the Russian jet intentionally violated Turkish airspace knowing they would be fired upon. It would be interesting to know exactly when the Russian pilots bailed out – before or after they were hit by Turkish air-to-air missiles. They could have bailed as soon as they heard the missile-lock tones.
The Jihadist clean up crew would not have been in range to react to the parachutes, they have that stuff on youtube by now, if Turkish anti air was not covering for those jihadist crews.
Russia hasn’t really been hitting ISIS, they’ve been hitting the anti-Assad “rebels.”
There are no rebels and there are no moderates. There is only IS and various other Sunni AQ clones there by now.
Consider, though only a marginal or possible relation to today’s shootdown, nevertheless there was considerable anti-Russian grumbling coming from the Turks when they lost their airmen in 2012. There may be an element of payback at play now.
Ymarsakar Says:
November 24th, 2015 at 6:15 pm
Russia hasn’t really been hitting ISIS, they’ve been hitting the anti-Assad “rebels.”
There are no rebels and there are no moderates. There is only IS and various other Sunni AQ clones there by now.
&&
I’ve been preaching that everywhere for months.
It has not registered.
The proles are still in the ether.
They are still buying Winston Smith’s handiwork — strike that.
They are still buying Barry Soetoro’s handiwork.
What I find most curious is that only a few days after I’ve been ranting…
Suddenly the Russians are cutting loose with info they’ve had all along.
I don’t buy the Russian track at all.
I also can’t believe that this is a one-jet strike. The Russians had gotten used to crossing the tip of Turkey.
Erdogan’s previous protests had been blown off.
This is the Russian’s way of war.
As for ISIS, blowing up the Russian airline has caused Putin to re-prioritize everything.
I should think that Russia will flatten ISIS … probably by January — if we’re not at Defcon 1.
Turkey has tacitly supported ISIS while attacking the Kurdish forces that are actually fighting ISIS on the ground. Obama has failed to support the Kurds because that would upset his great buddy, ErdoÄŸan.
ISIS oil flows to Turkey, and the Russians have been attacking ISIS trucks carrying oil. There are huge profits to be made selling heavily discounted ISIS oil. Reportedly, ErdoÄŸan’s son is involved. So, maybe the Turks thought shooting down a Russian SU24 bomber would induce them to back off. If that is the case, they made a strategic mistake.
The other question was whether or not ErdoÄŸan advised Obama that they intended to shoot down a Russian plane. Doesn’t sound like Obama much cares, given what he said.
Russian sources contradict Obama’s claim. Since the ISIS bombing of the Russian jetliner, the Russians have been hitting ISIS hard. According to the Russians:
This Guardian (sic) article provides useful information on the relationship between Turkey and ISIS and why Turkey won’t cut the oil supply lines. Looks like the Turks didn’t like the Russians doing it. This will not end well.
One man bears 100% of the responsibility for the rise of the ISIS and the death and destruction that has followed and will follow.