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Five myths about the New Hampshire primary — 5 Comments

  1. at this point i am missing jello
    but then again, with cosby bs too, jello isnt fun any more

  2. The NH primary results may persuade a few republican candidates to drop out. That of course would be impactful.

    That said, I place little importance upon the NH primary results for a couple of reasons;

    On the democrat side, Sanders already has it in the bag, which is only to be expected. Had he decisively won the Iowa primary, then he’d have seriously hurt Hillary’s electoral credibility.

    Hillary’s political fate will be decided first by Obama, since AG Lynch is his lackey and, if unindicted and she stays in, secondly by the super Tuesday results.

    On the republican side, Trump’s voters will not change their minds, having a ‘let it all burn’ mentality.

    Cruz’s supporters are “constitutionalists” and evangelicals, since he’s the only real choice in that calculus, his vote count at this point is pretty much set in cement.

    Which leaves Rubio, who may gain some but the other candidates remaining in the race will dilute any establishment voter support. Such as Kasich, who is purportedly doing well, which if realized, will dilute Rubio’s support.

  3. A good article. People think things about us that aren’t so. As Geoffrey’s post suggests, our primary function is to remove candidates, not speed any on with a blessing.

    I voted Kasich this morning. I can’t see Trump defectors ending up in his camp as the campaign goes forward, but then, who knows what they will do? I think they are as likely to go to Sanders as to Cruz, and more likely to stay home than anything. You can count on that analysis to be wrong, based on previous predictions of mine.

  4. Assistant Village Idiot:
    Trump defectors as likely to go to The Bern as to Cruz? If that’s true, if one of each ever talked to each other, both their heads would explode.

    BTW, I’ve seen that sig before but can’t place where. Volokh, maybe?

  5. My reading on Trump supporters is that they just want to shake things up. Bernie doesn’t announce it much now, but he has been strongly against immigration because he believes it hurts black people. He and Trump both like confiscatory tax rates for the super-rich, though for different reasons.

    I comment at Maggie’s Farm, and used to at Volokh’s. Grim’s Hall, Chicago Boyz. Check my sidebar, I guess.

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