Initial NH primary reflections
Donald Trump did about as expected in NH: very well. About a third of the people who decided to vote in the GOP primary race went for him, and if you look at the NH polls over time, you’ll see that he’s hovered around the low 30s there ever since he first started catching on last summer.
So the polls were fairly accurate about Trump in NH. They were pretty accurate about the others, as well. The number two guy Kasich has been polling at about 17% recently. And by gum, he’s sitting fairly close to that at 15.8 as I write this, with 98% of precincts reporting. What’s more, he’s been doing well in NH for many months. Kasich, however, is not expected to do well elsewhere (he practically became a NH resident since last summer, he was there so often).
As for Bush, he did just about as polls predicted, too (11% right now). He’s stronger in NH than in most other states, for similar reasons to Kasich: he’s spent a lot of money there, and he’s got a lot more money than Kasich had to begin with, so he probably has a great deal more left. Also, as I wrote in this post, NH may be quirky but it has strongly tended to favor moderate Republicans, and that would make it especially good territory for both Bush and Kasich.
And indeed, moderate Christie did well there, too—that is, if you don’t look at “well” in the objective sense, and you just compare his standing in NH to his abysmal support numbers in other states. In NH he’s running at 7.4 right now, but he is doing so poorly elsewhere that rumors are that he may drop out of the race, and certainly suggestions that he should (and it can’t happen soon enough for me, I must say). As I wrote in this comment, during that fracas on Saturday night with Rubio, Christie was like a drowning man who reaches out to another person and tries to pull him under too. That appears to me, at least to a certain extent, pretty much what happened.
That brings us to Rubio (10.6 right now). You can see that Cruz, Bush, and Rubio all are clustered close together around third place, but Rubio is the last of the three. Rubio has not visited NH much, but in general he was polling somewhat better than his performance yesterday, and the evidence is not that his supporters left him so much as late-deciders (and there are a lot of those in NH) went to Kasich rather than Rubio (I heard this cited on TV as being evidenced by exit polls).
Then there’s Cruz, who campaigned very little in the state but did about as polls predicted at 11.7, which means he slightly edged out Bush for third. This is surprisingly good in a state like NH, which is more moderate than conservative and not particularly religious.
All in all, the pollsters should be proud—and especially proud because this was in notoriously-difficult-to-forecast NH. And Trump supporters are very happy, with Cruz supporters a little bit happy. Kasich is overjoyed, but unless he’s completely out of touch with reality, he shouldn’t be all that happy. Bush is probably satisfied, and Rubio apologized to his supporters and made a promise:
Christie is probably very angry about his NH results, especially since he spent a lot of his money and time there. Of course, Christie’s default emotion appears to be anger, but he can comfort himself with the idea that Democrats and Trump-supporters, as well as others who were already angry at Rubio, will love him forever.
As for the Democrats, Sanders’ victory there was also no surprise. I would hate to have been around Hillary last night, but I still don’t think she’s all that down and out in the long run. But NH had to have been a bitter bitter pill compared to what she expected when she was contemplating the prospects of a 2016 run, which must have seemed as though it would be a coronation. Now the race moves to the South, where the demographics would appear to favor her.
The Daily Caller is reporting that most NH superdelegates have committed to Hillary despite her getting smacked around in the hustings. This would give her more delegates out of NH than those garnered by Sanders. Should make for some entertaining fireworks, I would think.s
Why doesn’t Christie just make it official and say he’s throwing his support to Trump? Still can’t get this photo from last Saturday’s debate out of my mind.
For the good of the nation, Bush needs to drop out.
The sooner the field narrows to three, the better the GOP will be.
I don’t think Christie did himself any favors with his Rubio attack but maybe it will wake up Marco. I still think he needs to give a big confession speech on the border re Gang of 8.
Trump’s ceiling should be 40%, but I’ve come to the realization that he can win the nomination. If he wins the nomination, he loses in November.
In a smaller field, Carly could have had 20%.
Trump changed the whole dynamic of the election.
I’m fine with Marco or Ted as POTUS.
I’m really disappointed in Christie. He helped derail Romney with his lame speech and Obama-hugging, now he wants to destroy Rubio. If he’s such a tough guy, why doesn’t he go after Trump? I guess because he’s admired him all along.
Carly wasn’t afraid of Trump– unfortunately, she’s another Republican destroyed by the media and the RNC. Thank God Cruz is starting to take him on.
Media outlets like “The Hill” are labeling the superdelegate ‘windfall’ to Hillary as evidence of corruption. It is evidence of establishment politics, rather than neccesarily corruption but the LIV’S will accept the media’s characterization.
Hillary is, through leaks about her email criminality and media slants like The Hill’s, being subjected to the “death of a thousand cuts”. Obama’s designated successor needs Hillary’s feminine vote, which places political constraints upon even him and so, the ‘music’ plays on…
roc scssrs:
Because Christie isn’t a tough but principled guy. He took Rubio out as a strategic decision on his part. His calculation was that (1) Rubio was far more vulnerable than Trump (2) Rubio is basically a pretty nice guy, and he wouldn’t punch back twice as hard, but Trump would out-insult Christie (3) he was following the rulebook of trying to take out the person right above you in the polls in order to improve your own position. So taking Trump out doesn’t give Christie his votes, but he figured that taking Rubio out might, and could at least hurt Rubio enough to make him drop down below Christie.
It didn’t work out as planned. Rubio dropped, but Christie didn’t rise. Christie did get a lot of talk show action, though, and the anti-Rubio crowd now loves him whereas before they hated him for “hugging” Obama.
Ann,
Christie still hopes to be the GOPe choice. Going after Trump doesn’t move him toward that goal, while going after Rubio, the establishment front runner, may do so.
Cornhead,
So you give little credence to assertions that a Pres. Rubio guarantees amnesty with the resultant permanent, one-party socialist rule in a not-too-distant, future America?
roc scssrs,
Why would you express disappointment, when a RINO predictably behaves like a RINO?
Things are a little muddled, but it seems like there are now five viable Republicans. Over the next month, one of the three establishment candidates (Bush, Kasich, and Rubio) will rise to the top. The losers will drop out, and the survivor will commence defeating Trump (and Cruz) in the primaries. The establishment candidates will throw their support to the survivor, who will win the nomination, and the result will be perceived as legitimate, because the surviving establishment candidate will have won the last handful of primaries. (Possibly, under Republican convention rules, this result will require a second ballot: I’m not knowledgeable enough about that to say.)
That’s my prediction, anyway.
Question for anyone who knows. What happens to delegates from early primaries whose candidate has dropped out before the convention?
Fox is reporting Carly is dropping out today.
Carly has suspended her campaign. Here’s her full statement on Facebook:
> Should make for some entertaining fireworks, I would think.
I recall Hillary supporters in 2008 watching the Republican convention and commenting how refreshing it was to see a convention where votes actually counted. If Hillary is nominated, I think a pretty good attack ad could be made about the phony democracy of the Democratic Party process. It might not change any votes, but long term it might aid the learning process of millennials.
Yes, I added the Carly dropout news to my latest post.
Fiorina has made a wise decision. She realized there was no way forward and made a fine statement that highlighted why she decided to throw her hat in the ring. I hope she has a good shot at the VP spot.
y81,
If the GOPe candidate wins the party nomination, the country is finished.
parker,
ditto. Fiorina is my top choice for the VP slot. Especially important, IF my dad’s recent prediction comes true. He has a feeling that whomever the next President may be, they’re not going to make it through their first term. Too much division, too much anger and hate.
Governor Christie might have hoped he would do better in New Hampshire, since he has often been to its neighboring state, Maine, to support and campaign for its governor, Paul LePage. (And it’s not surprising that those guys are friends, with all they have in common, as governors of liberal states, and fat loudmouths.)
(Which is why I like both of them.)
Geoffrey Britain:
Then the country is already finished. Whom is President Trump going to appoint to his administration, if not members of the Republican establishment? You might wish that he would appoint Rand Paul as head of the Federal Reserve and Edward Snowden as head of the CIA, but it’s not going to happen. The federal government is not run by one man, it is and will be run by members of the applicable party establishment.
y81,
An excellent argument can be made that the country is already finished. But arguments, however logical and factual are not always predictive of future reality.
Another excellent argument can be made that if Trump is elected, it will be disastrous for the Republic. Though IMO, Paul is not one of them, there are a number of excellent people that could fill cabinet positions. Nor do they have to be from either party’s establishment.
The problem isn’t finding qualified people, the problem is a leftist indoctrinated, ignorant public.
Traditionally, there are three “primaries” within the Republican Party: the race for top conservative, the race for top moderate, and the race between the two. Coming out of NH, it looks like a race between Cruz and Trump for non-establishment candidate, with Rubio versus Bush for establishment candidate. (I’m assuming that Kasich doesn’t register in SC and disappears soon afterwards.) If that’s how things move, it will turn out to be a more conventional election cycle than it looked like it was going to be.
Ann:
My goodness! In that photo, Christie reminds me of a blue meanie.
By the way, I just learned that the Romney campaign’s code name for Christie was Pufferfish. That’s actually very clever, because it not only gets across the idea of a very large guy, but also of a person very enamored of himself, puffed up with his own self-importance.
This is from that same article:
My immediate reaction upon seeing that photo was the thought, “suckup”. My second thought was, “my God, he’s angling for Trump’s VP spot!”
Only after that did I read of Christie’s strong desire to be Romney’s VP. Which makes Christie a political whore, since clearly it makes no difference to Christie whether he kisses Romney’s ass or Trump’s. Christie snubbing Romney, to maintain his in with Obama, just completes the picture.
To London Trader’s question:
“What happens to delegates from early primaries whose candidate has dropped out before the convention?
I would like to add:
What happens to any monies left in both the candidate’s own campaign fund and any PACs set up to specifically promote that candidate? It can’t be returned to donors since money is fungible and at that point there is no way to determine which donor or donors’ money is still unspent.
I looked up online the answer to my question and found that the law now at least prevents the former candidate from using it for their personal expenses. Although I’m certain that creative lawyers could come up with ways around that, like accruing big but unpaid salaries to the candidates relatives, friends or pets. However, it can be used to buy political favors by donating it to other politicians’ campaigns or various “charities” like the Clinton Faux Foundation for Whatever.
So for my question, to quote the famous political commentator, E. Litella – “NEVER MIND.”
Anyone who thinks that Bush will, or should, drop out is mistaken.
Despite the fact that the debate travesty seemed to go on forever, the campaign is just beginning. Bush has the resources to go all the way.
The disdain for Bush is a little puzzling. How quickly people forget; he was a very good Governor, who adhered to conservative principles. I was reminded recently that Florida went through four major hurricanes on his watch. While other states, and other Governors, were stumbling around whenever any disaster struck, Florida was prepared and the Governor reacted effectively.
If I were going to take a chance, it would now be on Cruz since Carly is out. But, I have always preferred a Governor, or former Governor, with a good track record. Still do. There are two left standing –actually three because Gilmore, another effective Governor, has not officially quit for some reason.
Oldflyer:
Do you not understand that Bush (and likely Rubio) represents the death of the two-party system because he’s all in for amnesty, a pathway to citizenship and a crushing majority once there are tens of millions of brand-spanking new reliable Democrat voters? With a Congress already filled with like minds, how will we stop that once the President is also hell bent for “comprehensive immigration reform.” Even if Bush is the second coming of Buckley and Reagan’s love child, conservative to the core on everything else, that one issue disqualifies every candidate except Trump and Cruz.
This is the defining issue of this nation’s future. Either we choose one of them and work as hard as necessary to get this country started in the right direction or we surrender to the Marxists and 1984 gets here in a hurry.
It boils down to who can you trust – the egomaniac who changes principles as often and easily as he changes his socks, or someone who’s taken on the Establishment and fought for conservative principles his entire life?
If Trump wins the nomination and picks Cruz to be his VP, Cruz might be able to rein in Trump’s fascistic tendencies, but his supporters are doing everything they can to demonize Cruz, while the GOPe applauds.