Reflections on Super Tuesday
It certainly was clear even before today that Donald Trump was going to win a plurality in most of the states having primaries today, and that’s what has happened (even though all the results are not in yet). But my fervent hope was that one of the pair of either Cruz or Rubio would pull ahead of the other, and that the latter would then drop out prior to March 15. This is, quite literally, the only way that Trump could lose the nomination.
And that is my disappointment this evening: so far, each has gotten some encouragement to stay in. I’d say that so far it seems as though Cruz is doing somewhat better than Rubio. That’s fine with me, but if so, I want his dominance over Rubio to be unequivocal, and it’s not.
Of course, the presence of Kasich and Carson is still a factor. I have no idea why anyone is still voting for either of them, but there are just enough doing so to affect the results. Although it’s hard to say exactly what that effect is, my guess is that Kasich takes away mostly from Rubio (for example, it seems to have been quite a factor in Vermont), and Carson takes away from both Trump and Cruz.
So to reiterate, now I continue to hope that one of the two second-place candidates—and I assume it would be Rubio—drops out before March 15. But I don’t have much sense that it will actually happen. What do you think?
neo – This afternoon, talk show host Michael Medved was arguing that the remaining candidates should each try to defeat Trump in different states. It’s a conclusion I had come to earlier, though I haven’t gotten around to writing a post about it. (FWIW, game theory does not give any useful advice in this kind of situation.)
As for Kasich, I would say that he is the most qualified of the remaining candidates, and, when I last checked, he ran the best against Hillary. So I think he should stay in, at least through Ohio.
It would be ideal if Rubio would utilize game theory and back Cruz for the remainder of the primaries as his defacto running mate. What I see happening though is Trump getting the nomination and having his vote split by a third party – handing Clinton the win.
“As The [New York] Times notes, Goldman Sachs employees have contributed more than $199,000 to Florida Sen. Marco Rubio’s presidential campaign. They’ve contributed more than $94,000 to Hillary Clinton.”
Read more: http://dailycaller.com/2016/03/01/goldman-sachs-puts-its-only-trump-donor-on-administrative-leave/
I report this as an example of the MSM being smarter than me. Are they taking a shot at Rubio? Just making it clear they [GS] do not support Trump? Sometimes a cigar is just a cigar.
By the way, I apologize to Cornflour for mis-stating his name. Not trying to be clever, just an error on my part I finally noticed.
Numbers from Virginia:
Trump 355,358
Rubio 326,623
Cruz 172,521
Kasich 96,497
Carson 59,930
What a shame. Surely Rubio would have gotten enough of those Kasich votes to beat Trump. Not to mention the several thousand other votes given to candidates no longer in the running.
It would be lovely indeed if Cruz and Rubio would make a unity ticket and stop Trump in his tracks. And shame on any decent citizen who wouldn’t vote for them, no matter whether it ended up Cruz-Rubio or Rubio-Cruz. Of course as soon as that strategy was employed and started to work, Trump would go third party. Just a nightmare election, it’s looking to be. And the country is facing some tough, tough times. We need a LEADER, not Clinton-the-remix or Biden/Warren or some other elitist SJW pearl-clutcher. Heaven help us.
“Not to mention the several thousand other votes given to candidates no longer in the running.”
There were 13 names on the Virgina Republican ballot today. Turnout in Falls Church City was nearly 44%, probably a record for a primary election.
“What I see happening though is Trump getting the nomination and having his vote split by a third party — handing Clinton the win.”
I’m seeing a lot of visceral hatred of Clinton by the hard-core Bernie set, which, if my real-life FB friends are any measure, is a huge percent of the Dems. For a while they would nudge each other to pretend to be nice to Hillary (since she’s WAAAAAAAAAYYYY better than any of the Republicans, is usually how it would be put) but I’m seeing less of that now. What if the Dems split over Hillary vs. Bernie?
Carson said he is in until the money runs out. Translation: His campaign consultants want to milk this thing until the end.
Hey, Trump came in third in Minnesota.
Rubio 37.3%
Cruz 28.0%
Trump 21.1%
Carson 7.1%
Kasich 6.3%
Gophers are very smart and well-educated and they will tell you that.
Seriously, they had Jesse “The Body” Ventura as Gov and recognized Trump for the con artist that he is.
I didn’t count them, but in Atlanta they had about 13-15 names on the ballot as well.
It would seem each state would determine what would be the latest date to print and distribute the ballots so it would only include those still in the race. I’d really like to see how many votes have been wasted by really dumb people so far.
If a candidate “suspends” his campaign, does that mean he’s totally out, or is that just a weasel word allowing him to jump back in if circumstances change?
Suspending the campaign is a technical term for federal election law purposes.
Tonight makes me think no one will enter the convention with enough delegates to win the nomination. Cigar smoke will solidify around Rubio and another GOP lite will win, postponing the show down for another 4 years… if the circling black swans are generous.
So glad to see Ted win some states. I want it to narrow to Cruz and Trump to see who the rest of the voters coalesce around. Kind of stinks that Kasich will stay in through OH and Rubio will stay in for FL…at least it looks that way now.
Still lots of states left to go!
I doubt Rubio will drop out unless he has a money problem. I believe that he is now being backed by the very top of the party. He is there to stop Cruz. Cruz made a great speech tonight. One on one against Trump he stands a fighting chance, even at this late date.
Kyndyll G:
“What if the Dems split over Hillary vs. Bernie?”
They won’t.
Their presidential candidates are usually nasty with each other then they rally for the general election. It’s just narrative. If there are stragglers, their activists police them up. Mission first.
Unfortunately, probably true — Republicans: Get used to hearing Hillary Clinton: Clinton gets the last laugh
I’ve been resigned to Trump vs Hillary for a long time now. Not sure if I’ll vote. I live in Portland, Oregon, so it doesn’t really matter much. A lot of Sanders supporters are angry about this and that injustice, but I’m sure that will wear off. Here in my neighborhood it’s probably 80, 90% Dem no matter what. Emails etc mean absolutely zero.
I can’t justify burning up my attention on such a lost cause as this election. I’ve usually been an accurate predictor but not this time.
I don’t understand the confidence with which so many predict Tump vs Hillary means Hillary automatically wins. Nothing’s been automatic this time. No rational predictions have been correct.
I think that if Trump is to be defeated, the other candidates must remain in the race. If Rubio drops out, why would one assume that the people who would vote him would go for Cruz, even with Rubio’s endorsement? Why would Kasich’s voters not go to Trump? It seems to me that if Cruz can take 25 – 30% of the voters and Rubio can take 20 – 25% voters, and by extension delegates, they can force a brokered convention.
Apparently earlier today, Rubio was talking up the idea of going to the convention with no state wins. So I’m expecting that he’ll stay in this thing to the end no matter how dismal his numbers are.
Ace put up a blog post earlier today suggesting that the party establishment is taking the view that either the voters pick Rubio, or the establishment will “punish” the grass roots by throwing the election (via non-support of the chosen non-Rubio candidate, whether Cruz or Trump) to the Democrats in November in order to teach the grass roots a lesson. Given that I’ve seen the exact same idea, albeit in favor of a non-establishment grass roots conservative candidate, suggested numerous times over the last few years, I’ve got a very bad feeling.
Jaw, meet floor: Lindsay Graham just said Republicans need to rally around TED CRUZ in order to defeat Donald Trump.
See it for yourself: http://tinyurl.com/gw8k2la
That would require Rubio to care about something other than Rubio. Not bloody likely.
Kasich stays in because he’s running for something other than president, and dropping out would fall short of his goal of becoming the Most Obnoxious and Tone Deaf Person in Human History.
Current 6AM EST delegate estimates from the NYT:
Trump 241
Cruz 222
Rubio 110
Kasich 18
Carson 3
Unless Kasich and Carson quit today and Trump punches Rubio at the debate, Trump wins the nomination.
Trump then leads in polls over Hillary.
DOJ indicts Hillary before the convention.
Biden gets in.
Biden defeats Trump.
Hillary and friends pardoned by Obama.
Old Joe is President. Historic.
Cornhead, Please NOOOOO! Uncle Joe as President means that Idiocracy is a documentary and not fiction.
I really don’t understand Marco Rubio’s thought process here unless he truly doesn’t care about this Country. He doesn’t have a path forward. John Kasich is a total ass and obviously is looking for a VP slot. Ben Carson is being hoodwinked by his consultants to keep their paychecks coming for a little while longer. All in all, it is an incredibly depressing spectacle. We are watching the slow-motion train wreck unraveling of the Republican Party and I don’t believe that we will be able to put Humpty back together again come November no matter who is the nominee. As a conservative, I think it is time to start a new party. Yes, I know that means Hillary. Unfortunately at this point I am not sure anything can change that fact short of an indictment and even though she is eminently qualified to be a prisoner, I just don’t see this DOJ doing its constitutional responsibility and bringing an indictment forward. So here we are.
I am somewhat encouraged to know that late-deciding voters are not that crazy about Trump, nor are millenials. That suggests that info about Trump’s past and character may be affecting voters’s choices. If SuperPACs do invest in more background ads about Trump, we may see some lower numbers for him in the future. It would also be good if Rubio and Cruz would add some messages for millenials to their stump speeches. It’s probably time for Cruz and Rubio to stop the direct attacks on Trump and let outsiders do this. The #NeverTrump movement could help, as could religious spokespeople like Hobby Lobby owners who don’t like Trump’s lack of humility.
Rubio can’t drop out until Florida votes. Who knows what will happen after this. It would be nice if they could get Carson to run for senator there.
I think the campaign suspensions are wise. If something should happen between now and the end of the primaries that would change, they can resume their campaigns. A big scandal, health issue or death are always a possibility.
I guess I thought Cruz did better than I was expecting, so I was pretty relieved. The news stories had me believing Texas was in play.
All of them have a viable path except Carson. Rubio has the establishment backing, and he has won a state, and I thought he might take VA. Kasich is stronger in blue areas and could take it to the convention (which is in his own state, and Lincoln used that to his benefit).
Running mates generally compliment the candidate. A Northeast liberal should pick a Western conservative. Usually VP picks aren’t that important as potential Presidential replacements, but this year, with all the leading candidates pretty old, it seems it would be. I notice lots of wishful comments on blogs that want Trump/Cruz, and wonder what the other side is imagining for their candidates.
“Progress means getting nearer to the place you want to be. And if you have taken a wrong turning, then to go forward does not get you any nearer.
If you are on the wrong road, progress means doing an about-turn and walking back to the right road; and in that case the man who turns back soonest is the most progressive man.” CS Lewis
Rubio has to win Florida. The problem with Cruz is that he should have done better in these SEC states and Rubio did about as well, almost winning VA.
‘What do you think?’
Rubio, Carson and Kasich should end their campaigns and endorse Cruz. NOW!
But they won’t. Instead they’ll hand the keys of the kingdom to Trump.
Cruz beat Rubio by 600,000 votes (Edged him according to Fox news!) but its the same number of votes Trump beat Cruz by.
‘I thought Cruz did better than I was expecting’
As far as I can tell, Cruz is the only candidate who has consistently beat his poll numbers in almost every contest (he’s averaged about 5% higher than his polls). So he still has a chance but only if the others leave the race soon.
“As for Kasich, I would say that he is the most qualified of the remaining candidates.”
LOL
Just like Hillary is the best candidate based on her State Dept. experience. Or Bernie is the best because because he cares /sarc/
Kasich is simply a tool for the eGOP and an empty suit.
No Thanks, !!!
Voter turnout may make the difference this cycle. What percent of first time caucus goers did the Dems have? My MN GOP precinct had 75% new people. Trump came in fourth. Even Carson beat him!
Total votes cast on Super Tuesday (current RCP):
Clinton 3,497,829
Trump 2,937,761
Cruz 2,493,321
Sanders 2,210,083
Rubio 1,872,392
Kasich 542,301
Carson 490,932
expat:
“If SuperPACs do invest in more background ads about Trump, we may see some lower numbers for him in the future.
…It’s probably time for Cruz and Rubio to stop the direct attacks on Trump and let outsiders do this.”
On the 1st part, necessary perhaps, but not sufficient.
Keep in mind that Trump’s appeal to voters is based less on the affirmative appeal of Trump himself and primarily on the negative appeal of the stoked opposition to the status quo and GOP.
Pro-Trump messaging works off of the primary anti-GOP negative appeal.
As such, if the GOP candidates prioritize targeted anti-Trump messaging, their strategy will be off target from the main reason for Trump’s voter appeal among the (converting) Republican base.
The priority for the GOP campaigns must be to neutralize the anti-GOP negative appeal. When that piece is established, then targeted anti-Trump messaging can be made effective.
In short, it’s a precondition, framing issue in the critical Narrative contest for the zeitgeist. The GOP campaigns must re-set the frame, which likely requires re-laying the foundation of the political discourse.
On your 2nd point, yes.
Rubio and Cruz should not> be leading the targeted anti-Trump messaging. The GOP and its candidates have other campaigning tasks to prioritize. Anti-Trump messaging is properly undertaken by conservatives vigorously, zealously, collectively working as Marxist-method activists.
The top vulnerability for the GOP – long exploited by Democrat-front Left activists and picked up by “jayvee” Left-mimicking Trump-front alt-Right activists – has been the dearth of competitive Right activism due to conservatives who chronically reject activism out of hand, despite the glaringly obvious growing need for Right activism to compete in the only social cultural/political game there is.
Meanwhile, rather than admit their liability for the deteriorating condition of American society, conservatives have habitually passed the buck to the GOP for the cultural, political harms that have resulted from conservatives’ willful negligence in choosing not to compete for real.
Even as it became evident early on with the Trump phenomenon that the activist game trumped traditional electoral politics for the 2016 presidential election, most conservatives – as demonstrated in comments here – have stubbornly clung to a traditional electoral frame while Trump-front activists have run roughshod merely by mimicking the Left.
So here we are. The GOP and its candidates can’t save the situation on their own. They need conservative to deploy teams of zealous capable activists in the arena ASAP. “Cuckservative” conservatives who are targeted for displacement by the alt-Right insurgency can no longer afford – not that they ever could afford – to pass the buck to the GOP on the activist game.
It’s overdue for conservatives to collectively go all in adapting Marxist-method activism and stride into the arena to compete head-on, vigorously and zealously, for the sake of their political position in American society.
expat:
“It would also be good if Rubio and Cruz would add some messages for millenials to their stump speeches.”
Yes. While a vitalized conservative (counter-)activist movement performs the lead role of grappling with the alt-Right insurgency throughout the arena, in complement, it’s incumbent on Rubio and Cruz to focus on a re-set of the political discourse.
Re-set the frame of the political discourse, which may require re-laying the foundation, in order to neutralize the anti-GOP negative appeal that’s the main reason for Trump’s voter appeal among the disaffected Republican base .
With millenials and everyone else, I recommend the GOP candidates undertake straight talk to the people. Explain – like Neo does – what has happened with Congress and the President, especially the circumstances that have angered the base. Explain the measures they’ve taken and attempted, or not attempted, and why under the circumstances. And, like Neo’s starting hope for the 2016 presidential election, they should connect the dots by explaining what they can do and plan to do with the presidency while also upholding the integrity of the republic if given the chance by the people.
Establish a better narrative.
Have they already been doing this? With wary half-measures, yes. They need to redouble their efforts.
However, the GOP candidates can only be effective in this task if conservative activists establish the conditions in the arena with successful head-on competition versus the alt-Right insurgency (which may also include Left activists who may include foreign operatives).
It’s a fitness test. A successful conservative counter-insurgency would serve as compelling evidence to the base of a vitalized competitive character for the GOP and conservative activists which would, in and of itself underlying the issues, do much to undercut Trump’s voter appeal.
Ted Cruz is my choice for President, yet I voted for Donald Trump. Because the GOP Establishment *must* be utterly and totally destroyed, or there is no hope. For decades they have sneered at us, betrayed us, and destroyed our lives, while ensuring they better their own.
Marco Rubio is no choice. He demonstrated failure and an extreme lack of wisdom with Shamnesty, joining with the Democrats and the GOP Establishment. And now he is the GOP Establishment’s whore or waterboy, take your pick. His puppy-dog adoption of the GOP Establishment is his second critically huge mistake (the first being Shamnesty). The Great Deceiver, the Great Betrayer. Remember the Marco Rubio who was at the top of the world when he bested Charlie Crist and emerged as a conservative Hope, a Hero of 2010. But that Rubio hope is dead and gone.
Mike Devx,
I know everyone’s shit is all emotional right now, but check it out:
If you leave your enemy no retreat, he will be forced to fight you to the death. You’re a fool if you think the establishment couldn’t do a lot of damage on the way out.
The goal is to take control of the party. NOT TO WIPE THE ESTABLISHMENT OUT. Give them a retirement fund and send them on their way.
It might be galling, but would represent more significant change than has happened in Washington in 100 years. Revenge might make you feel momentarily good, but won’t do anything to fix the country more than just taking control would.
Matt, he’s been falling for Carter, Democrat, and other Leftist propaganda for years. I told him to watch that kind of degeneration, but he must have gotten mad about it. Because he hasn’t changed, and won’t have any more time to.