The Jayvee hard at work: ISIS and a dirty bomb
ISIL (ISIS) is seeking nuclear material in order to use it against you-know-who:
Isil terrorists are planning to use drones to spray nuclear material over Western cities in a horrific “dirty bomb” attack, [British Prime Minister] David Cameron has warned.
World leaders are concerned that jihadists want to buy basic drones that are widely available online to transport radioactive material into the heart of major cities in a strike that could kill thousands.
The Prime Minister warned that the dangers of Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant (Isil) getting hold of nuclear material was “only too real”.
Mr Cameron on Friday met world leaders, including the presidents of America, France and China, to plan how they would react to such an attack.
My reaction to the news was: are you really just planning a reaction now? Even before the rise of ISIS, this sort of possibility/probability was bandied about for at least a decade, probably longer, online and elsewhere. Do we really not have any game plan?
Not that I know what that game plan would be. An ounce of prevention might have been nice, but it’s too late for that.
A dirty bomb attack has been thoroughly war gamed by the military, intelligence, and security services. Perhaps there has been new chatter picked up by intelligence services. Dirty bombs are not so much a threat to kill thousands as a means to cause severe panic and economic damage. Contaminating a square mile of a major city would do the job. Since security has to be 100% and the fanatics only 1% it will probably happen.
Democrat and Leftist “righteousness” at its finest. Be grateful for the new Overlords, for they can do far worse.
But hey, at least we’re not in Iraq looking for WMDs while killing terrorists now, right.
Now we can look for WMDs in the homeland while terrorists use the FBI and Hussein’s security forces to kill us. It’s another kind of Easter Hunt.
It’s just a matter of time. A virtual certainty. Get out of NYC neo. Only Wash. D.C. has higher priority on ISIS hit list.
“Now we can look for WMDs in the homeland while terrorists use the FBI and Hussein’s security forces to kill us.”
The desperation of appeasement, eager to lay sacrifice upon the innocent. Cowardice in the face of the enemy is not limited just to combat and no less reprehensible.
Dirty bombs are psychological weapons.
Atomic decay, Alpha, Beta, Gamma rays, have wildly differing threat profiles.
Alphas are ultra lethal if ingested. Otherwise, they are harmless.
They can’t even penetrate your skin.
Beta rays can’t penetrate cardboard.
Gamma rays are super penetrating — and the reason that heavy ( lead ) shielding is slapped around radio active isotopes.
The problem for ANY dirty bomb is its manufacture.
It figures to kill or cripple anyone trying to assemble it.
One would need the FULL complement of trick gear used to manipulate radioactive materials. This is WAY beyond the means of anyone other than a nation state.
Consequently, the probability of a dirty bomb actually being deployed is very, very, low.
The primary utility of dirty bombs is to scare the public and to increase central government spending on the Security State.
Somehow such devilish devices always hit print immediately after a fulsome fiasco on the part of the Security State.
The REAL threat is Muslim immigration and invasion.
Naturally, that which is obvious and preventable can’t be brought up in public discussion.
blert,
There’s no possibility that elements in Pakistan, Russia, China, N. Korea and soon Iran would never consider giving terrorist groups dirty bombs, much less low yield nukes… right?
Underestimating an enemy is the most foolish of mistakes. It is not just the good guys who can, “find a way”…
blert;
You are missing a small point. People who are willing to blow themselves up with bombs might be willing to work with highly radioactive material regardless of the possibility of death. Suicide bombers don’t seem to be too selective on the manner of their death.
I don’t want to get into specifics, but radioactive material is easily accessible and lightly guarded, if at all It need not come from a nuclear power plant. Take it to a high building and release it into the wind; no bomb or aircraft is needed. Some is water soluble, so it will get into every nick and corner in the area polluted with the radioactive material.
Some decade or so ago there was a British docudrama about this happening in London; there they used car bombs to spread the material which came from Turkey. Alpha emitters are easy to shield; inhaled or ingested they can be deadly.
Having worked with such material, doing the what if mind drills as I am prone to do, I have concluded there are many different methods to achieve such a disaster and I often wonder if the government has explored them. I gave up many years ago in trying to convince them of anything.
The fear of radioactive material would be enough to prevent access to the area contaminated for years if not decades; think of the fear of asbestos and the cost, a $1,000,000 a year for many years in my county. to remove it instead of stabilizing it and labeling the area to warn about disturbing it.
The single most likely source for radioactive material would be a swimming pool research reactor.
These are much more common than you might guess.
The minute one ponders how a fanatic would exploit such a resource…
You run into the impracticalities involved.
Most radio active material is wholly unsuitable for a dirty bomb.
It simply has the wrong chemistry.
So one would have to engage in a very specific campaign to manipulate target materials.
No snatch and run operation will do.
Whereas there are countless non-radioactive dirty tricks that a fanatic can use.
Hacking.
Lawfare
Media spin
Prayer-ins
And, on current trends, these are defeating the West — already.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dF9V8POmuxg
The invasion is such a success that it’s hard to imagine any fanatic using dirty bombs.
Instead, they will — in France and Britain — simply take over the national atomic arsenals — forty-years from now, tops.
Amr and Blert:
Having worked in the cleanup of Pu, Sr-90, Trans uranics, and fission product contaminated areas, but not as a health physicist, both points are valid. The stuff is costly to remediate, public fears are often exaggerated, and risks are real,
However, high explosive kill more immediately, as does chlorine gas (water treatment facilities), biological weapons are arguably more lethal for more people at lower cost IMO.
For example stealing spent fuel from a reactor site (commercial or research reactor) will immediately kill the thief once the shielding is opened. Those sort of materials can be detected without having to be too close. The Feds have spent considerable sums for “portal” monitoring in high risk areas and in ports of entry specifically to address these scenarios.
Obama and the open borders crowd have the answer. Import 100,000 unscreened Muslims from Syria. The way to fight terrorism is to be protected by Muslims. The more Muslims you import the safer you will be. Not to worry. They will help keep us safe.
blert,
There are beta particles that can pass through cardboard. Spend some time around Sr-90 which decays via beta emission and do not hide behind less than 3 inches of cardboard for a few minutes from 1000 curies of SR-90. Nearly instant suntan and keep your eyes shut tight. But Sr90, CO 60, etc. its not the point. Go for alpha emitters. Yellow cake is everywhere. 200+ kilos dispersed over 100 square blocks and any metro area grinds swiftley to a complete halt for many moons.
Neo:
“Even before the rise of ISIS, this sort of possibility/probability was bandied about for at least a decade, probably longer, online and elsewhere”
Presidential Decision Directive/NSC-39, 21JUN95:
President Clinton, 17FEB98:
OM,
I am retired as a 30+ year rad tech foreman at nuclear power plants in IA and IL. I think I have a good grasp on the materials that would be used in a dirty bomb and the ease at which those materials could be obtained. There is no cure for ruthlessness except more ruthlssness.
Hell, we were panicked about our own “dirty” bombs not so long ago. Remember “fall out” from nuclear tests? Strontium 90 had the same chemical properties as calcium and it was going to go into fodder, thence into cows, thence to our children’s milk.
There would be nothing living east of the Mississippi but two-headed cockroaches six feet long.
Then there were the survivors of an actual nuclear attack–whom Churchill thought might envy the dead–who would be concerned about even more fallout.
Post war mutations were part of high and low sci-fi, Canticle for Leibowitz and Star Man’s Son coming to mind.
Back in the day, in high school chemistry ca 1960, the teacher showed us how to make kitchen table radiation detectors. Sheets of foil and…something something in a jar. Needed a wire and a battery….
Plenty of panic to go around. Certainly affect property values.
Resilience is a good thing, but not needing to be resilient–let the other guy worry about that–is a better thing.
Game plan?
Crush them in-situ before they strike here.
I remember discussions about this type of terrorist attack at least 30 years ago. Before invasion in Iraq, many strategy analysts were seriously concerned if Saddam could use such weapons.
All plausible dirty bombs use some kind of fission products from a nuclear reactor. All the naturally occurring fiercely radioactive nuclei decayed eons ago.
There’s enough uranium in granite to make the granite “better than coal” as a fuel, if it were feasible to extract the uranium. Uranium only still exists in nature because it’s not particularly radioactive.
Yellowcake, concentrated uranium ore, is worthless in a dirty bomb except for one thing: it can be used to induce hysteria in the ill-informed.
Western intelligence is probably able to identify the location of the planning for this kind of attack down to the conference room in the building in the Islamic State’s “capital” that Obama keeps studiosly avoiding when he deigns to allow the assassination of some ISIS big shot nearby. When that many nasties are in one place, the message coming from the White House should be “Paging Curtis LeMay.”
ByzantineGeneral, “…[I]t can be used to induce hysteria in the ill-informed.” That is the whole point, as far as ISIS is concerned. Whatever they find to use, no matter how weak the radiation may be, if it’s detectable the majority of the population is going to go higher-primate excrement. If people can oppose nuclear power because they are afraid the electricity will be radioactive (and people have), reason and reality will be of limited use. As for delivery systems, I saw a 2m R/C helicopter being used as a crop duster in Japan in 1998; it had a liquid capacity of about 5 liters. It’s a wonder no one’s tried this years ago.
Yellowcake is very useful as a dirty bomb, because your exception is exactly what terrorists want: panic.
Imagine what it would cost to clean up a square mile of a major city enough that most users (office workers or residents) would return.
The actual danger is quite low, although one would not to make a habit of inhaling yellowcake. However, as is shown in the phobias that helped “environmentalists” block nuclear power, people are phobic about radiation – far more scared of it than other toxins at similar levels of risk. That phobia is all the terrorists need.
Parker:
I have only 20+ years to working with remediation of Manhattan Project, Cold War, and more recent projects. Not doubting your experience, never claim to be a health physics technician (or radiation protection tech.) but have spent more than a few years in zones, in double anti-c clothing, and in respirators. I’ve learned a thing or two about cleanup after plutonium fires, spent fuel pool cleanup, soil contamination, groundwater contamination. Good to know you have background in the commercial side of the shop.
Folks out here used to guard the movement of product with armored vehicles with fully automatic weapons deployed (machine guns such as M2s, M240s). Ruthless if necessary, but also prudent.