How goes Indiana?
The state of Indiana has a primary on May 3, and most analysts feel it will be pivotal in terms of the GOP nomination (and Ted Cruz knows it). But all that speculation about which way the state will go is based on almost no polling data at all.
So the pundits have no idea. And we have no idea, either. You may distrust polls; sometimes they are off, but they’re usually not very far off, and their information has been very useful in making general predictions about the basic trends in a state. Anyone here from Indiana who can shed some light on the situation there?
I live in Indiana and am adamantly opposed to Trump, but I have no more idea what’s going to happen here than you. I thought that Trump would be gone by now, so I just don’t know what’s going on. Perhaps it’s mass insanity.
Sean Trende has an article up about the race, in it he talks about Indiana not being polled because of telemarketing laws. I did not know that, but I sure hope Cruz can pull off the win.
Trende’s article
Ted should have some private polls. Where he spends his time the next two weeks is telling.
There is also a Camp Cruz set up in Indianapolis; the Iowa model is moved to Indiana.
Yes Cornhead, the Cruz team in Indiana is strong and well managed. My wife was an Indy girl, her youngest brother is a volunteer in the Hoosier state. He is very confident about Cruz winning a large majority of the delegates. He believes the donald will be lagging behind Kasich. I hope he is correct.
The donald shot himself in the foot 3 times today on raising taxes, abortion, and the NC no boys in the girls’ bathroom law. I am waiting gleefully to see the team Cruz videos.
parker, 4:38 pm — “The donald shot himself in the foot 3 times today on raising taxes, abortion, and the NC no boys in the girls’ bathroom law.”
. . . UNLESS, brother parker, Trump is already feeling his (yuuuuge) oats, is figuring he’s got the Republican nomination all but sewn up, and is already now pivoting to appeal to left-leaners. The next few days or maybe weeks may tell if my theory holds any water — or if I’m all wet due to leakage.
M J R:
Trump has been doing the “pivot” (according to supporters) for many many months, long before he had anything “sewed up.”
He pivots. He’s a regular gyroscope.
No one has a clue what he really thinks and feels (except the fabulousness of Donald Trump), but his supporters excuse everything he says and label it brilliant, pivot or not.
I hope Trump is pivoting before the nomination is sewn up. That’s a good way to lose the nomination.
I have no special polling data to share, but a couple of other points: Indiana is neither dense nor rare. There seems to be a spread of people all over the state, according to population density maps (there are maybe 5 pop centers). That resembles suburbs, where Cruz does well.
IN is in the middle of US states for prosperity, or a little better. No economic blight to enrage the mobs. That’s also good for Cruz.
Anecdotally, IN is moderate and modest like WI and maybe even a bit more religious from what I’ve heard.
All together, I would give Cruz a better than 50% chance on that, but I would much prefer a poll or two.
I live in Indiana and I don’t think its conservative like Wisconsin is conservative. But we live in hope.
neo-neocon, 6:43 pm —
Paragraph 1 — Essentially agreed, except I’m not convinced that this pivot (as described by parker) is of the same magnitude as earlier ones. It strikes me that this one is more liable to give those of us in thrall to intellectual consistency a case of emotional and ideological whiplash.
Paragraph 2 — Yep.
Paragraph 3 — Agreed except for Trump’s supporters labeling his pronouncements “brilliant”. Yes, they will defend him practically to the death; yes, they will marvel at his supposed acumen — I’m just skittish about them thinking he or his pronouncements are “brilliant”. It’s just not the word I think they’d use to describe them. No biggie. END NITPICK. See ya.
So far I haven’t seen a single Trump yard sign, bumper sticker, button, etc. However, I haven’t seen a single Cruz one, either. So, I’m not sure that means anything.
Neo: “He pivots. He’s a regular gyroscope.” 🙂
Trump claims he likes to “brand” people with nicknames. How about this: Gyroscopic Donald, he pivots so yuugely, you can scarce keep up.