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Home » Indiana polls are all over the map

Indiana polls are all over the map

The New Neo Posted on by

Well, they’re actually in Indiana. But you know what I mean.

Look at the three most recent ones: Trump +2, Trump +9, Trump +5, Cruz +16. Now, that’s a formidable spread. I throw up my hands at trying to make sense of it. The +2 is meaningless, within the margin of error, as is the +5 (the poll’s margin of error is not listed for the subsample of GOP voters, but for the entire sample it’s 4.6, and the smaller subsample should have an even higher margin of error). That last poll result—+16 for Cruz—is a huge outlier, but I’ve read some analyses that say it’s by a more reputable pollster than several of the others.

On the other hand, almost all of the recent polls have shown Trump ahead, and averages often matter. Although sometimes they don’t.

Clear as mud.

Indiana is an extremely important winner-take-all primary state that’s voting next Tuesday. I’d be a fool to make any predictions.

Comments

Indiana polls are all over the map — 14 Comments

  3. expat,

    At best a reprehensible level of ignorance on Trump’s part and at worst, it would reveal an attitude that might makes right.

    Cruz should confront Trump on this issue.

  4. I’m not a Tyson apologist, but what if he was actually innocent of that rape charge? Alan Dershowitz was Tyson’s lawyer during the appeal of the rape conviction, and he considers losing that appeal his biggest failure as a lawyer:

    “Failing to win a new trial for someone I knew was innocent. I’m talking about the Mike Tyson [rape] case. It was maybe more a disappointment than a failure. We should have won a new trial easily, but Indiana’s legal system makes China look fair.”

  6. Ed,
    Even more problematic is Trump’s defense of Tyson when he probably knew nothing of the details of the case. And now he’s happy about Tyson’s endorsement because he is “tough.” It’s typical of the way Trump addresses any issue: make a statement or tweet one and worry about informing himself (shallowly) later if someone objects.

  7. Ann, did you read the next to the last paragraph about what Tyson said in his autobiography about hitting his wife? That line alone would make me question Tyson’s character and Trump’s approval of him because he’s tough.

  8. expat:

    That was actually in a biography on Tyson, not in an autobiography. In a 1989 interview piece, here’s what Tyson had to say about it:

    The advertisements for Torres’s book quote Tyson as saying that he once hit Robin—his best punch—and bounced her off the four walls. Since this sounds ludicrous on the face of it, I don’t ask Tyson if it’s true, but I do ask him if he said it, because Torres told me he had Tyson confessing this on tape. He doesn’t answer my question.

    After a pause he says, in disgust, “Punch her? Aw, come on. Sure we had our arguments, and they were a bit volatile—not uncommon for young marrieds. She could punch pretty good herself and kick you where it hurt the most. What really happened was that in the heat of it I pushed her, and she stumbled into the closet. But I don’t go around hitting women, despite that image they’re trying to hang on me.”

  9. The Trump +9 poll was by ARG: the polling company that gave Trump +10 a couple of days before Wisconsin. They’ve been laughably wrong several times this cycle.

    Throw in the usual Cruz undecided bump (which might no longer be valid at this late date?) and I feel good about our chances. Nate Silver also gives Cruz a 65% chance.

    Note also that these stats don’t include either a Fiorina bump or a Pence endorsement bump.

  10. Ann,
    Thanks for clarifying that. Still, I don’t know of any couple that commonly punch one another. Trump should not have boasted of his endorsement, but for him, toughness counts more than decency. Golf courses, casinos, boxing matches, and affairs are his measure of success. I prefer praising, teachers, doctors and nurses, police, auto mechanics, trash collectors, soldiers, and people who hold doors for you when you are overloaded at the supermarket. Trump calls them losers. I call them peole who help make us all winners.

  11. An excellent, if distressing analysis of the Cruz campaign VS Trump’s.

    “What Trump Saw and Cruz Did Not” by Rich Danker

    “So what happened? I believe Trump ran a better campaign than Cruz for two reasons:

    1) Republican voters not only wanted an outsider candidate for president, they wanted that candidate to campaign like an outsider

    2) The conventional strategies and tactics on running in the presidential primary had become so stale that an outsider with disdain for professional politics found a new way to win using common sense”

    Danker is talking about the emotional climate active in this year among the aggregate of republican voters and the impact that has had upon voter perceptions. Thus Trump’s prior history, contradictions and appalling past behavior is dismissed, when weighed against the overriding consideration; Trump’s apparent determination to actually do something substantive on the issues most important to the public. Among Trump’s supporters, his contemptuous dismissal of political correctness is seen as proof positive that he is committed to addressing these issues.

  12. Trump supports tranny bathroom choice, single-payer healthcare, Planned Parenthood, etc.

    Trump is a liberal cynic in the same mold as Bloomberg. Once elected, his con will be exposed as he reverses none of the PC leftist moves.

  14. All the rabid enthusiasm for Trump is boosted by those who KNOW that he’s dead meat in the Fall… the MSM… and Hillary.

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