Talking to Trump
Everyone’s conferring with Trump. Paul Ryan, for example.
Makes sense. They want to see what he’ll promise, what they’re willing to give, whether it’s a good idea to support him, and probably much more.
But I wonder if they understand that whatever he promises them he will do or say, whatever deal he makes, is completely mutable at his discretion. I cannot imagine why they would believe him. He contradicts himself daily (for example, now it’s that banning Muslims was just a “suggestion” and he’s not releasing his tax returns till after the election—yeah, right!). To even try to determine which is the truth—what he said yesterday, what he says today, what he will say tomorrow, or something else entirely—is a futile waste of time.
Many Trump supporters would no doubt say that’s what’s so clever about Trump—so wily, so unpredictable!
But, but, but — he’s increasing Republican voter registration! What could go wrong!
I just love the way nutty protestors follow Trump around. Their lunacy only helps Trump.
I’m beginning to think Trump might win.
The wild card, of course, is the FBI. Even if she is not indicted, the leaks will be very damaging. I expect massive leaking.
Cornhead:
I think Trump might win, too. I used to think it was about a 10% or less chance; now I think 30% chance.
Neo:
“Many Trump supporters would no doubt say that’s what’s so clever about Trump”
People is people – just witness your commenters filling in the blanks in a palpable rationalization stream reminiscent of the moderate Democrats who clocked in for Obama.
I think a lot of it will boil down to whether Trump can damage Clinton more, or Clinton (the the Press) can damage Trump more.
Both of them have vast amounts of ammunition.
Seeing how vicious and nasty Trump was against his fellow Republicans, especially against Cruz, whom I think he utterly libeled on a regular basis, I have no doubts he will cut loose on Clinton like no Republican candidate has done against an opponent in living memory.
Of course, Clinton will undoubtedly do exactly the same thing. It depends what sticks. I can imagine the True Believers of either candidate will be swayed, but there is always the proverbial middle, which will likely be much bigger this time around.
One thing you cannot say about this race is that it’s uninteresting.
And given what could happen between indictments and the GOP convention, it’s still possible one or both of the candidates could change. Then there’s the third-party candidate factor. It’s probably more possible for a third-party candidate to deny either of the Big Two 270 electoral college votes than it has been in decades.
I read a book in 2008 written by a Democrat strategist whose thesis was that 2008 was The Year for the third-party candidate. He made a pretty compelling case, except for the the fact that he was completely and utterly wrong. However, 2016 could be another story.
I wonder… who could be the nominee from the Enough of These Two Party…?
I think it’s 50/50 at this point, Trump/Clinton. Very few people are actually enthused about Clinton. Her crowd is the Dem Establishment Crowd, lockstepping to victory regardless of facts. Clinton could club a baby seal to death on prime time tv while reciting passages from Mein Kampf and they’d still vote for her. (The seal totally asked for it and Hitler’s just misunderstood.) The longer Sanders drags Clinton down, the better the odds for Trump. While Clinton continues to battle on two fronts, Trump gets to run around looking “presidential” (to the extent that is possible) and solidify in the public mind that he is The Nominee.
“Many Trump supporters would no doubt say that’s what’s so clever about Trump”
Scott Adams (the Dilbert guy) has created a million little fanboys and fangirls for Trump, and they are irrrrritating. Their Man can do not wrong. It’s all part of the brilliant, yoooge, Trumplan. Consistent incoherence? All part of the plan. Stepping on his dick? Part of the plan. Not knowing about how primaries work? Part of the plan. Get on board the Trump Train, losers, or you’ll be left behind.
Conceptjunkie:
“I wonder… who could be the nominee from the Enough of These Two Party…?”
See my comment at http://neoneocon.com/2016/05/11/campaign-2016-promises-schmomises/#comment-1153552 and review the linked reference below that in my reply to parker at 9:49.
A 3rd party campaign spun up by dissidents from the Trump GOP and Clinton Democrats is feasible yet, but it needs to crystallize ASAP.
The window is still open, but the filing deadlines are fast approaching. The snowball needs to start rolling now.
Eric…
No-one beats something with nothing, somebody with nobody.
Third party dreamers are just in denial.
The good guy lost.
And that’s that.
AMartel, I love Dilbert. But, when it comes to Scott Adams backing Trump, I will never forget that he also created Wally.
I have commented that we have passed through the Looking Glass as a nation. We have the specter of people advocating destroying the GOP to build something else (what?) calling others RINO.
Someone crowed that Trump beat the GOP establishment. Ted Cruz = GOPe?
Some even believe that Trump is a practicing conservative.
Of course the oft heard refrain now is that if you don’t vote for Trump, it is a vote for HRC. I hope that if Trump is the nominee that there actually is a credible third party candidate. If the GOP is to be destroyed, then let us get started on building a constitutional party. Let’s go ahead and find out where this nation is, and where it intends to go.
Oldflyer…
The demographic of our polity has SHIFTED.
That’s why Romney didn’t make it… and why Trump, a Democrat, was able to roll up the GOP nomination upon the first ballot.
That’s the reality we have to accept — and deal with.
“K” values are in the minority.
“r” values are in the great majority — if for no other reason but that the last forty-years of rampant immigration have been skewed towards “r” populations.
This skew has PROFOUND implications.
blert,
Clearly, you’re not an activist.
Blert:
There is no such Constitutional prohibition.
http://www.politifact.com/punditfact/statements/2015/apr/16/lawrence-odonnell/president-vice-president-same-state-allowed/
@blert – Please read my response to this nutty k/y theory…
http://neoneocon.com/2016/05/11/conservatism-is-a-tough-sell/#comment-1156426
Oops, wrong thread
The current Quinnipiac polling of the swing states shows unusually high support for Trump with the 18-34 year old demographic. That could be Bernie voters that are still actively trying to take down Hillary. Once Obama and Bernie campaign for her–the Bernie voters vote democrat or–stay home, –possibly.
The current polling is most likely strongly influenced by the fact that the Republican primary is essentially resolved and the democratic battle is still being fought.
Strand:
I think many of those Bernie voters also like Elizabeth Warren a lot. I imagine she’ll work hard for Hillary. Right now, for instance, she’s deep into a Twitter feud with Trump, and she’s doing very well.
“I wonder if they understand that whatever he promises them he will do or say, whatever deal he makes, is completely mutable at his discretion.” neo
I can’t disagree with that assessment. However, the opposite corollary occurs to me to be true as well.
So, I wonder if Trump understands that whatever they promise Trump, whatever they say they will do, whatever deal they make… is completely mutable at their discretion…
Why would either side, both snakes… trust the other? Betrayal is after all, what ‘snakes’ do…
GB, you certainly paint with a broad brush. I confess that I get sick of the cynical trashing of every public servant. Sure, some of them are less than stellar characters. Name them if you like; but, it is shameful to throw mud at all.
Just to pick one, I do not believe for a minute that Paul Ryan is a snake. For that matter I do not think that Cruz, Rubio, or Kasich are snakes. I happen to also believe that G.W. Bush, Mitt Romney and, yes, Jeb are fine men, who want the best for the country, and and believe that the traditional GOP will serve it best. Opinions may vary. The right to be wrong is a basic American one.
I have a bad habit of looking for actual data when presented with a funny looking claim. Donald Trump has said his tax returns have been continuously audited by the IRS for the last 12 years. That seemed pretty darn high. In FY 2014 the IRS audited only 12% of large corporation returns. This was the highest rate of all categories including small businesses etc. Trump’s experience is closer to all -cash businesses like restaurants, plumbers, etc.
So what is he up to that the IRS pays such close attention to him? The official IRS cash business audit guide pays a lot of attention to foreign investors, immigration issues and other interesting areas. So our self made million (billion?) aire must have a lot of red flags on his returns.
Ann has it right, Sanders will campaign for hrc and his fans will follow. And, EW will be campaigning for hrc, possibly as the VP nominee. Die hard trumpians, including the donald, are delusional if they believe the Sanders fans will flock to the ballot box to vote djt in November.
Anyone want to take up my friendly wager that the donald can not crest 100 electoral college votes? 😉
People are meeting with Trump to either sincerely jump on the bandwagon or to appear to be considering it. Some are doing the old rope-a-dope like Daley Sr. did to MLK Jr.: never give a definite “no” even though you have no intention of cooperating.
ConceptJunkie:
I expect Trump to take it quite a bit easier on Hillary than he did on Cruz. Cruz isn’t corrupt or powerful, and couldn’t do anything for Trump. Hillary is and can.
Trump is corrupt, and will hedge his bets.
Oldflyer:
I don’t believe in irredeemable mistakes. Churchill said that Americans always do the right thing, after they’ve tried everything else. Trump is the “everything else” part.
If he loses in a landslide, his supporters will be chastened and may nominate a more respectable candidate next time. Maybe even Cruz.
GB,
I went back to yesterday’s comments, a rarity for me, and saw you accepted the wager. You can see my acceptance there.
Matt_SE,
The donald will hedge his bets. He does not want to be POTUS, he wants to whine and twitter that he was cheated as he takes the knock out punch for the shrew queen. Baked in the cake.
Oldflyer,
The right to our opinion is a basic American one. I have been wrong before and no doubt will be again. I was painting with a broad brush. History however, proves it to be basically an accurate one. Ryan, Kasich and Rubio have, through their own actions, proven themselves to be snakes. And your willful blindness to their actions, changes it not at all.
The GOPe only cares about their personal interests and the proof of that is their support for open borders and essentially unlimited Muslim migration, both of which are mortal threats to the Republic. Compounded by their passivity in the face of “Middle class shrinks in 9 out of 10 US cities as household incomes fall nationwide”
I have no reason to doubt that G.W. Bush, Mitt Romney and, yes, Jeb… in their personal life, are fine men. But to want the best for the country while also purporting to believe that the traditional GOP(e) will serve it best is to absolutely be guilty of willful blindness.
DirtyJobsGuy Says:
May 12th, 2016 at 5:57 pm
Donald Trump has said his tax returns have been continuously audited by the IRS for the last 12 years.
That’s news to me. The story I’ve read is that his recent returns are under active audit at this time. Which is exactly what you’d expect out of Louis Lerner’s outfit.
That seemed pretty darn high. In FY 2014 the IRS audited only 12% of large corporation returns.
That’s more news to me. The IRS audits the Fortune 400 100% of the time. They never leave. The firms MUST provide office facilities at the corporation’s expense for their auditors… teams of auditors. Yes, they are there year-round. Because there is so much $$$ at issue, that’s why.
The Fortune 400 have their own counter-staff, too, naturally.
This was the highest rate of all categories including small businesses etc.
Trump’s experience is closer to all -cash businesses like restaurants, plumbers, etc.
Your last statement couldn’t be further from the truth.
The issues that cause the IRS to audit a Real Estate Enterprise are endless… starting with rates of depreciation.
These are fully capable of turning an enterprise into a tax-free enterprise… right there, alone.
So, real estate players invite audits — constantly.
Ask Carlton Sheets how he came to become the TV guru.
Yep, an IRS audit clipped his RE scheme. He was deemed a ‘dealer’ and lost ALL of his long term capital gains treatment — and his depreciation shield.
Oh, my!
His back-bill was staggering. Up until then, he never owed any taxes. But his list of assets grew like topsy.
parker,
“The wager is a case of your favorite beer against a case of my favorite beer. One caveat, we meet in Decorah, Iowa so you can buy my case at my favorite brewery. 😉”
I’m agreeable to a case of beer. I’m even willing to meet you in Decorah, Iowa and to pay for your gas to get there.
Should the planets realign though and I win, I look forward to you buying me a case of my favorite beer. Which is ‘Boddingtons Pale Ale’ brewed in Samlesbury Village in Lancashire, England… obviously you paying for the trip would be the friendly thing to do… 😉
GB,
I understand your comment to Oldflyer, but I also understand his comments. I too deeply distrust the gope. They lack conviction when it counts, and all too often they are focused on the next election instead of what is good for the country. That is why we need to amend the Constitution to term limit the house and senate.
However, Oldflyer is correct that we should not (wholesale) throw out the baby with the bath water. Gowdy is gope, and there are others, that need support. The long game rests in Eric’s activist concept. Not to brag, but I am an ‘activist’ in my town and county, I work to promote conservative policies from the school board to the city council to the county supervisor.
Yes, throw the proverbial bums out at all levels. That requires ground work. Aim small, miss small. That begins on home turf. Knock on doors, engage others in discussions, attend local gop meetings. Push, and push hard, for what you believe.
Oldflyer,
I distrust Ryan and think his budget/debt reduction math is phony, and that he knows it is phony. For that reason I distrust him. He is 50/50 in my mind.
GB,
I do not mind a trip to the UK at my expense, but see you in Decorah early in November.
Strand:
I think many of those Bernie voters also like Elizabeth Warren a lot. I imagine she’ll work hard for Hillary. Right now, for instance, she’s deep into a Twitter feud with Trump, and she’s doing very well.
*********
Ah ha! I was wondering why Elizabeth Warren was the point person on that–now it makes perfect sense. Thanks for the insight.
GB,
Gas to Decorah is small change, even converted to the Sterling. NBD. Meeting you at Toppling Goliath will be tremendous, YUUGE!, and great. I will buy the fleet and then you will buy the case. 😉
parker,
That works for me. I can cry in my beer as well in Decorah, as I can here. 😂
But quite frankly, I think it a case of too little, too late. We have a nation with a majority of fools and fools will learn at no other school than experience. This nation has a bitter, bitter draft before it and they shall have to drain every drop from the cup that sits before them.
GB,
Years ago my dad taught me to reload, for that reason, and I still have his tools. They still work fine, about 200 rounds per hour. He brought back, as a trophy, a K98 Mauser. Among other calibers, I reload 8MM to feed his K98 and my 2 Yugo 48s. I have come to prefer the Yugo 48. Switfer bolt cycling and excellent accuracy. I have 2, one scoped and one open sights. I got born with 15/20 dead aim at my advanced age.
See you in Decorah.
Parker — what happened to your 50 to 1 bet that the Donald doesn’t get 50 electoral votes (or 55, if you like)? I took you up on it for $50 a couple of days posts ago, but I guess you missed it.
There is this nagging worry in the back of my mind that won’t go away. It is that Obama vowed to “fundamentally transform” this country. Does anyone believe a health care system first tried by Mitt Romney fulfills that pledge? Does a man who sat in a church listening to Rev. Wright for 20 years suddenly go quietly into the night with so much left to do? Who would be more likely to carry out Obama’s vision, Hillary Clinton and Andrew Cuomo, or Bernie Sanders and Elizabeth Warren? And who controls the Justice Department?