“Unexplained” rise in city crimes
When I first read this I thought it ludicrous that the authors pretty much dismiss the Ferguson effect as being a major cause of the recent crime rise in many major cities—because it seems so obviously part of it.
But the fact that some cities are doing well and some poorly indicates that the Ferguson effect is unlikely to be the explanation, and certainly not the full explanation. Why are Chicago and LA doing poorly, for example, whereas and Miami and Oakland are doing well? Are there policing differences among those places? Are some affected by the Ferguson effect more than others, and if so, why?
Or is it something else? For example, is some or even much of this not a real change in crime itself, but a difference in the way each city reports its crimes?
If you think the latter isn’t important, please see this.
What else has changed? Of course its the Ferguson effect, or rather the media publicity which is causing the cops to pull back.
There are some anomalies like Oakland but the article you cite says that overall, they’re seeing an “across-the-board” increase.
“CHICAGO – The F.B.I. director, James B. Comey, said on Friday that the additional scrutiny and criticism of police officers in the wake of highly publicized episodes of police brutality may have led to an increase in violent crime in some cities as officers have become less aggressive.”
http://www.nytimes.com/2015/10/24/us/politics/fbi-chief-links-scrutiny-of-police-with-rise-in-violent-crime.html
When the wolves realize that the sheepdogs have pulled back, the sheep experience the consequence.
Anyone with a serious interest in this topic should consult the many recent articles by the truly brilliant Heather MacDonald, as well as her forthcoming book. She has, through her grounding in facts and hard empirical data, completely demolished the false narrative beloved by nearly all on the left, that disparities in incarceration result from bias and “racism” in our criminal justice system, and not from the overwhelming evidence of disproportionate black criminality.
Why would the Ferguson effect be refuted by differences between cities? In some cities, the mayor and the bureaucracy are highly supportive of the police, minimizing the Ferguson effect; in other cities, the mayor and bureaucracy join in attacks on the police, intensifying the effect. Also, to the extent that the Ferguson relates to interaction between the police and black residents specifically, the size of the Ferguson effect would vary with the size of the black population.
In support of how crimes are reported, need only look at crime “heat maps” (e.g. from Trulia).
Even in a metro area with a variety of police departments, looking at such maps, one would think that next door cities in the burbs have radically different populations living in them, yet they may overlap on several key demographics.
Likely a function of how crimes are reported and categorized.
Well, certainly, reporting can be fudged. See the VA.
But there’s the atmosphere. For example, when I reported to my first duty station after graduating OCS, my captain said, of the brigade commander, “He’ll back you up.”
There were units where that would not be said.
The administrative risks one took, and the envelope-pushing necessary to complete the mission varied according to the perceived loyalty down.
If street cops figure they’ll be human sacrifices to keep trouble from going higher up the chain, they’ll be cautious.
1. Playing with crime data. 2. Playing with employment and GDP data. 3. The left’s pretend victim class identity politics. 4. The left’s desire to attack the concept of the rule of law until they gain supreme power and then the rule of their ‘law’ will be obeyed by the creation of reeducation camps, gulags, and ovens. I must be reading too many GB posts. 😉
I agree with Geoffrey Brittain, y81, but especially Richard Aubrey:
“The administrative risks one took, and the envelope-pushing necessary to complete the mission varied according to the perceived loyalty down.
If street cops figure they’ll be human sacrifices to keep trouble from going higher up the chain, they’ll be cautious.”
As a veteran and a former cop my experience has been that cops and soldiers tend to be courageous, committed to their missions, and are willing to take risks as long as they believe that their superiors respect them and have the courage to back them up when things go wrong.
On the other hand, as soon as they perceive that they will be thrown under the bus by their superiors as soon as things go south, they will back off and do the minimum required.
Data can certainly be fudged as parker suggests, and that may have a lot to do with it as well.
As you know I’m currently a candidate for an MSW. One of the strong possibilities, no, reasons explained in my text was that low-income crime happens because of poverty which is an ailment caused by institutionalized racism, i.e. Jim Crow laws, racist hiring practices, discriminatory housing practices, and “internalized oppression.” Basically the author thinks every other criminal from low-income backgrounds is a Jean Valjean stealing a loaf of bread.
GRA,
We were rural poor, but we were rich in elbow grease. Mom and dad instilled a will to work hard and prosper. Now, we are solidly upper middle class in my generation. BTW, you forgot to play the white privilege card and strum upon the evils of the hetero normalcy banjo. Do da, do da, old times are not forgotten.
parker.
Go easy on GRA. There’s no telling what he said. He might have been agreeing. The part about Valjean does reflect much of what I’ve heard from liberals over the decades.
parker- I’m pretty sure GRA was agreeing, just pointing out the standard liberal orthodoxy from his sociology texts. But I could be wrong.
Not all social workers are liberals. My daughter has her MSW and she’s pretty conservative.
Figuring out which Mexican cartels are in an area might be useful, too– the cartels in Washington and Colorado are having a big spike in funds right now, I know my husbands’ command had a Safety Stand-down about some of their tactics. I’d be shocked if there isn’t some turf war stuff going on.
A proxy for “tone” might be found in how a city deals with “Homeless Camps”– Seattle’s Jungle, for example, is effectively officially supported, as is the habit of people buying junker RVs and parking them in neighborhoods, then living there. (Which only made the news because of the spike in crimes.)
@ parker: You didn’t comprehend my post fully. What Richard and Chris said.
@ Chris: How does you daughter ‘survive’ in a very liberal, PC field?