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Something’s going on with Russia and Europe — 26 Comments

  1. Heh, yeah, something’s going on alright — and something else leads me to suspect that in part that “something going on” is named PresidentPseudonym and the closure of his term of office. Along the lines of “get it while the gettin’s good”.

  2. Yet another consequence of President Obama’s commitment to the spiral model – a radical fundamental policy shift premised on the disinformation-based stigmatization of the Iraq intervention – with the very competitors that most necessitate US-led deterrence.

  3. Russians also had a flotilla, including their one aircraft carrier, either going through, or headed towards the English Channel – on its way to Syrian coast in the Mediterranean. The Russians had surprise (unannounced) air maneuvers off the coast of Scotland, causing RAF to scramble.

    Russia, as is China (e.g. in May, buzzing by a Navy destroyer), are behaving rather provocatively, just before a US election.

    They are not doing it merely for fun.

  4. Speaking of the end of IWonPenPhone’s term, Caroline Glick has an interesting strategic thought how Israel can make use of Pres. Putin’s thumb-in-the-eye-poking tendencies vis a vis our own esteemed President (who, of course only wants what is best for our beloved ally, Israel).

  5. Ah but come now, mikeski, Trump memorized Madison’s Federalist 10 when he was only six years old — heck, he may not have even known any fat girls then.

  6. If one focuses on Trump’s foreign policy rhetoric, it signals he’ll pick up from Obama’s real foreign policy.

  7. We’ll see just how far a “legal duty” will carry contemporary NATO, an alliance of cop-outs, under the lawless administration of lawless Hillary who will continue to downsize our military in favor of crumbs to illegals and W!omen.
    Big Maq: Any suggestions?

  8. Not to worry. The Clinton Foundation will accept a $25 million contribution from Russia, bill will get a $675,000 fee for a speech in Moscow, and the Baltics will be out of NATO.

  9. @Frog – wish I was a “master persuader”, then we would have avoided this mess altogether.

    Now you seek my suggestions?
    .

    Openly talking about seeking some kind of payments, or you’ll not abide by an agreement already made, seems about as smart as publicly announcing a deadline for pulling out of Afghanistan or Iraq.

    Even if NATO members are “under-contributing”, the idea of backing out of the alliance has to be considered against what it might additionally cost us (just one aspect of many consequences) if there was no such alliance – that is, if “cost” is the real issue here.
    .

    But, like many points trumps makes there is never much consideration (by him, or his supporters) on what the consequences might be if followed through. There is only 1st order effects that are considered – not much different than when the left talk about minimum wage, or rent controls.

  10. Kinda funny; and kinda sad that these token forces are now considered to be major deployments.

    In the past, one could say that a token U.S. force would be a trip-wire to deter possible aggression, because it would be backed up with an overwhelming response. Not in the Obama era, I fear.

    I don’t know whether it is just the Media or the Regime that over states everything. Recall during the Yom Kippur War the Russians put a fleet of about 90 ships in the Eastern Mediterranean Sea to intimidate Israel. So, the U.S. responded with a fleet of about 60 (more capable) ships, including three carriers. That is what we used to call major force deployments. I was there. By the way, the air traffic crossing the Mediterranean from the U.S. to move everything from replacement war planes to ammunition to Israel looked on radar like an aerial LA freeway during rush hour. We called that commitment.

  11. Who would have thought leading from behind, attempting to woo Ukraine into NATO, NASA outreach to Islam, making climate change the number one threat to our security, transgender sailors, and general all around projecting weakness and indecision would invite aggression? Its a mystery. 🙁

  12. Problem is that other than the US (at least for now we have military) other NATO countries are very hollow.

  13. There is no room for argument that our Europeans friends have not done enough to prepare for their defense. But throwing out the baby with the bath water is not a productive strategy. Europeans can be pressured to pull up their bootstraps. It takes leadership to gain followers.

  14. Glick’s writings on Israel and the Middle East are always worhtwhile reading.

    * * *
    Oldflyer Says:
    October 28th, 2016 at 5:51 pm
    …In the past, one could say that a token U.S. force would be a trip-wire to deter possible aggression, because it would be backed up with an overwhelming response. Not in the Obama era, I fear.

    That is what we used to call major force deployments. I was there.
    * * *
    I wonder what you think of Dyer’s analyses?
    They sound very credible to me, but I have never “been there” and only have my research to depend on.
    She doesn’t have a post up on this situation yet, but here are a few recent ones.
    http://libertyunyielding.com/2016/10/25/difference-national-will-makes-aircraft-carrier-edition/

    http://libertyunyielding.com/2016/10/05/hard-rain-syria-sa-23-missile-system-russia-realizing-300-year-old-dream/

    http://libertyunyielding.com/2016/10/16/another-missile-attack-u-s-warships-weirdest-wars-gropes-next-gear/

  15. IIRC, the required defense expenditure level for NATO member nations is 2% of GDP. The UK and Poland both meet this level (surprisingly, Wikipedia claims that *Greece* is the second highest percentage of GDP, behind the US; probably because they’re not on good terms with fellow NATO member Turkey).

    Romania’s not making its commitment level. But it’s also a large and not well off nation. There are no doubt a lot of demands on the budget as a result. And the Romanians are still in the upper half of NATO nations in the percentage of GDP being spent. Finally, Romania sent a contingent of troops to Iraq. So the Romanians aren’t being passive about their NATO membership.

    Putin made vague threats toward the Polish government shortly after Russia took control of the Crimean Peninsula. And Poland is Russia’s traditional route to the rest of Europe. So the Poles are no doubt concerned. Russia’s been making an online nuisance of itself in the Baltic States in ways that have the Balts worried.

    And then there’s Romania. Russia sees itself as the protector of its Slavic little brothers. Romania is a non-Slavic nation surrounded by Slavs (and while the territorial dispute with Hungary is *officially* over…). Romania borders the Black Sea, and could interfere with Russian interest in that body of water (which is critically important to Russia because of the warm water ports there). Romania borders Ukraine, and could conceivably interfere if Russia ever goes overt in its attempts to take control of the country. And if Russia ever does manage to bring Ukraine around, Romania’s the other, non-Polish, direction for Russian expansion. So it’s not surprising that Romania’s not happy with the current Russian stunts.

  16. I’d add… he predicted Russian invasion for October 26. I think he’s wrong, that would give team Clinton time enough to reframe the situation. If I was Putin and I was going to make that choice, the best moment would be 3-4 days before election day.

    If Putin invades Ukraine or some Baltic Republic, I’d say it will likely happen the weekend November 5-6.

  17. OldFlyer has it right. These are token, trip wire, forces that are not backed by real strength. If Russia really wants to take the Baltic states back, these steps just advertise weakness.

    Don’t forget that Europe is dependent on Russian energy imports. Russia can play that card when they get serious…

  18. Yann, I read your linked article at Vox-whatever. It’s runny crap masquerading as soup.
    But with the neocons relentlessly pressing for war with Russia,”
    It’s pure Russian propaganda which seems to be all over the net from zerohedge to every alt-right front blog taking their cues from Putin. Yeah, they want Trump elected because he’s not only a blustering fool but a potentially useful idiot.

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