There will be a little delay…
…in getting out that further post I promised on Comey and the DOJ. It’s turning out to take longer than I originally thought.
So if anyone’s been sitting on a hot stove waiting for it, jump right off. It won’t be today.
Apologies.
Check out this video before it gets pulled.
If you’re pressed for time… start 10 minutes in.
Bev is correct, but her argument is poorly stated.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Fob-AGgZn44#t=1263
1) It’s impossible to predict the tempo and total of the voting in any given area.
So a vote fixer using tabulation fraud can’t toss in a fixed number into the batch.
He’s left with tossing in a winning // losing percentage.
1a) To make this credible, he needs to have plenty of polling data in the public mind that jives with his intentioned result.
2) Because of audit issues, namely that the count has to remain dead-nuts on-the-money accurate or belief will be suspended, the total count of votes has to stay right and correct.
3) Which, mathematically leaves a programmer one clean and simple solution. ( there are others, but our boy is lazy )
Take the true vote count and apply a percentage to it — said percentage to be fed from the outside world — ie our malefactor.
This, mathematically, ends up cranking out a fractional number, time and time again. To record this value, a programmer defaults to using double precision floating-point registers — perhaps even four-words long.
{ That’s computer-speak for a value that uses twice or four times as many bytes as would be typical. These days, it’s no biggie to carry a floating-point calculation out to 128 bits.}
An honest tabulation program would NEVER involve floating point math until percentages were to be calculated — something that a tabulation machine ought not be expected to produce internally.
After getting its calcs done, the tabulating computer re-formats the result by rounding off so that it’s not at all apparent to humans that the software has ‘gamed’ the vote.
A casual audit seems square. The result is close to the polling.
The manipulation can come from any point on planet Internet.
In the video, our man has access to Alaska’s system — and he’s in Alabama.
The nation is being stolen by tabulation fraud.
Podesta’s email is begging// commanding fraudulent polling — something that no-one in their right mind would want or accept for internal polling.
No campaign wants or benefits by lying to itself.
The WHOLE purpose of internal polling is to get full ‘ground truth’ — with absolutely no distortion.
Even Dr. Goebbels knew that much.
Lie to everybody — but not to yourself.
The fact that Podesta wants distorted sampling must indicate that he wants said results exported to the larger world, as a con on the voters, I’d say.
Distorted polls don’t cause people to flip their vote. It causes voters to simply not show up — when the vote is a blow-out.
Yes, it cuts both ways.
Poll fraud also is HUGE in suppressing fund raising.
It does not cause you faction to give you more bucks.
It causes the other guys great pain — as no-one wants to throw funds into a rat-hole — with one exception: !Jeb!
blert:
NO, that’s not what Podesta’s email was doing. He was not asking for fraudulent polling at all.
I wrote about it here.
Read what I wrote there.
You should take your own advice: “Lie to everybody – but not to yourself.”
I also think you may have put your comment on the wrong thread. This one is not about polling—the previous one was.
I thought there would be baseball up in here. Ah well.
Boris.
The beatings will continue until morale improves.
Better get crackin’, everything will change 4 more times while you’re writing.
neo-neocon Says: blert: NO, that’s not what Podesta’s email was doing. He was not asking for fraudulent polling at all.
yes, he was… did you take apart the email and read the 37 page attachment? OR did you use a secondary sourcce?
the email in question has the subject:
Atlas polling recommendations
its sent to people at Greenberg Quinlan Rosner Research
http://www.gqrr.com/clients/
[ya have to LOVE this list… ]
a smattering of clients…
Former President Bill Clinton
Mayor Bill de Blasio (New York, NY)
Mayor Rahm Emanuel (Chicago, IL)
President Viktor Yuschchenko, Our Ukraine Party (Ukraine)
Prime Minister Tony Blair, Labour (UK)
Ed Miliband, Labour (UK)
United Auto Workers (UAW)
and pretty much every country, group, and such in the democrat international socialist movement…
he asks them to take a look at what atlas sends him
See attached from Atlas
and what is atlas?
http://atlasproject.net/#our-services/
The Atlas project combines the institutional memory of the progressive movement with current expert analysis and cutting-edge data visualization to ensure efficient, effective decisions that result in progressive victories.
the last part of the message is to Andy Meyer:
Hey, when can we meet? I also want to get your Atlas folks to recommend oversamples for our polling before we start in February. By market, regions, etc. I want to get this all compiled into one set of recommendations so we can maximize what we get out of our media polling.
Neo
Read what I wrote there.
You should take your own advice: “Lie to everybody – but not to yourself.”
you do NOT over sample to game outcome for internal polls, that would be lying to yourself, and letting the world know the truth. if only and i wish.
The email even includes a handy, 37-page guide with the following poll-rigging recommendations.
In Arizona, over sampling of Hispanics and Native Americans is highly recommended:
Research, microtargeting & polling projects
– Over-sample Hispanics
– Use Spanish language interviewing. (Monolingual Spanish-speaking voters are among the lowest turnout Democratic targets)
– Over-sample the Native American population
For Florida, the report recommends “consistently monitoring” samples to makes sure they’re “not too old” and “has enough African American and Hispanic voters.” // “independent” voters in Tampa and Orlando are apparently more dem friendly so the report suggests filling up independent quotas in those cities first
– Consistently monitor the sample to ensure it is not too old, and that it has enough African American and Hispanic voters to reflect the state.
– On Independents: Tampa and Orlando are better persuasion targets than north or south Florida (check your polls before concluding this). If there are budget questions or oversamples, make sure that Tampa and Orlando are included first.
lets see if neo cuts me down again after i have barely posted for a long while…
the way polling works is you keep trying till you make your numbers… you select an area, which you know will give you certain results.. and you poll there trying to fill up your quota… this then oversamples and unbalances the poll and makes it advocacy not research. the researh is in knowing what to poll to game the results
– General election benchmark, 800 sample, with potential over samples in key districts/regions
– Benchmark polling in targeted races, with ethnic over samples as needed
– Targeting tracking polls in key races, with ethnic over samples as needed
IF you dont read the 37 page book, you didnt read the email… you can read the pamplet if you go here: https://wikileaks.org/podesta-emails/emailid/26551 and look to the third tab… Don’t worry it hasnt been changed, they used DKIM..
Our great civilization, here in America and across the civilized world has come upon a moment of reckoning. We’ve seen it in the United Kingdom, where they voted to liberate themselves from global government and global trade deal, and global immigration deals that have destroyed their sovereignty and have destroyed many of those nations. But, the central base of world political power is right here in America, and it is our corrupt political establishment that is the greatest power behind the efforts at radical globalization and the disenfranchisement of working people. Their financial resources are virtually unlimited, their political resources are unlimited, their media resources are unmatched, and most importantly, the depths of their immorality is absolutely unlimited. – ??? 🙂
U.S. Officials Doubt Donald Trump Has Direct Links to Russia
The New York Times
http://www.nytimes.com/2016/11/01/us/politics/fbi-russia-election-donald-trump.html?_r=0
and SLATE
Was a Trump Server Communicating With Russia?
Slate Magazine
http://www.slate.com/articles/news_and_politics/cover_story/2016/10/was_a_server_registered_to_the_trump_organization_communicating_with_russia.html
in Slates article Deep throat becomes Tea Leaves…
which will stick? (not that suspenseful is it?)
Thanks for that, Artfldgrs. The link was easy to find.
Artfldgr:
“Oversampling” is a technique that is sometimes used in certain types of polls and research in general to study small groups. Here is an explanation of what it actually means:
That’s an explanation from Pew Research of what the technique is and how it’s used in polling.
It does NOT mean biased sampling or skewed polls in an attempt to fool anyone. Also, these polls Podesta was talking about were not polls that were released to the public. They were internal polls that had the purpose of studying certain small subgroups in certain areas, so that the campaign could learn more about them.
Perhaps you think that, because that article by Pew that I just quoted was written after the Podesta emails came out, that it’s just some sort of ex-post-facto made-up excuse. So I refer you to articles about oversampling in small populations that way precede this election cycle.
Here’s an article about using oversampling in small groups, written quite a while ago (the comments there date from 2015, but according to my Google search the article was written in 2012).
Here’s some information about oversampling in small populations that was written in 2010.
Here’s an example of some type of study from 2011 that used oversampling (it’s not about politics).
There are other examples of research that uses oversampling as a technique to study groups that are a small fraction of a population. This information is easy to obtain, and has been in the public domain for a long time.
Once you are aware of what the technique of oversampling of minority populations is, you understand the Podesta emails better. Those quotes of his fit perfectly into the framework of what is being described here, and has nothing to do with faking data or deceiving anyone.
Umm, Ms Neocon, we can’t afford to pay you so lavishly and still allow you to miss your self-imposed deadlines. I’m afraid this may negatively your upcoming merit increase.
Where were you when Hillary Clinton declared war on “equal pay for equal work?”
https://mobile.twitter.com/HillaryClinton/status/793437463377276928
Possibly Neo is confirming this story:
“John Podesta’s Best Friend At The DOJ Will Be In Charge Of The DOJ’s Probe Into Huma Abedin Emails”
“…“The political appointees in the Obama administration, especially in the Department of Justice, appear to be very partisan in nature and I don’t think had clean hands when it comes to the investigation of the private email server,” says Matthew Whitaker, the executive director of the Foundation for Accountability and Civic Trust, a government watchdog group.
“It’s the kind of thing the American people are frustrated about is that the politically powerful have insider access and have these kind of relationships that ultimately appear to always break to the benefit of Hillary Clinton,” he added, comparing the Podesta-Kadzik meetings to the revelation that Attorney General Loretta Lynch met in private with Bill Clinton at the airport in Phoenix days before the FBI and DOJ investigating Hillary Clinton.
Kadzik’s role at the DOJ, where he started in 2013, is particularly notable Kadzik, as helped spearhead the effort to nominate Lynch, who was heavily criticized for her secret meeting with the former president.
It gets better because, as we further revealed, if there is one person in the DOJ who is John Podesta’s, and thus the Clinton Foundation’s inside man, it is Peter Kadjik.
Kadzik represented Podesta during the Monica Lewinsky investigation. And in the waning days of the Bill Clinton administration, Kadzik lobbied Podesta on behalf of Marc Rich, the fugitive who Bill Clinton controversially pardoned on his last day in office….”
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-10-31/doj-tells-congress-it-will-work-expeditiously-review-abedin-emails-there-just-one-pr