Trump’s Taiwan talk
One thing we know about Donald Trump is that he is unpredictable, and in my opinion deliberately so.
There’s something to say for unpredictability. It keeps your enemies and opponents on their toes, and if it’s publicity you want, it garners publicity. But there’s a point at which the unpredictable segues into the loose cannon, and that’s part of the danger as well as the advantage.
Machiavelli said it’s better to be feared than loved, if you can’t be both. Unpredictability in a president can inspire fear in the world, and a little bit of fear may not be bad but a lot can be destabilizing.
So, what to make of Donald Trump’s breaking protocol to have a little friendly chat with the President of Taiwan? There’s no dearth of people ready to tell you what it means.
He’s a bumbling fool who didn’t know what he was doing.
He’s well aware of what he did and is purposely starting trouble with China by breaking protocol.
He’s masterfully letting China know that it’s not business as usual and that he’s going to be in charge.
You can see the long list of articles at the link I just gave, and the headlines tell you how varied the responses are. But everyone’s just guessing, and my very strong feeling is that of course Trump knew what he was doing. The unknowns include what his next moves will be, and how China will respond. If you go to RealClearPolitics World for December 3, you’ll see that the first four articles are about this topic. Here’s one:
What Trump has done is not “reset” Washington’s relations with China but put them on an entirely new footing. Up to now, Beijing has kept the initiative, and American presidents, especially George W. Bush and Obama, have merely reacted, trying to build friendly relations in spite of increasingly bold Chinese moves. The concept was that Washington had to maintain cooperative ties, increasingly considered an end in itself.
Trump, by seemingly not caring about Beijing’s reaction, has cut China down to size, telling its autocrats he does not fear them.
Just about everyone assumed the Chinese would create a crisis for Trump in his first months in office, just as they created crises for both George W. Bush””in April 2001 with the detention of the crew of the U.S. Navy EP-3””and his successor””the harassment of the Navy’s unarmed reconnaissance vessels, the Impeccable and Victorious, in March and May 2009.
Instead, Trump took the initiative and created a crisis for China’s leaders, and he did that more than a month before taking the oath of office.
This resonates with me. The author goes on to say that this could be a good thing (accent mine). Well, of course it could. The real question is what will happen—and who can best tell us at this point.
I wish I knew.
China has lodged a complaint about Trump’s accepting the phone call:
“We urge the relevant side in the US to adhere to the ‘one China’ policy, abide by the pledges in the three joint China-US communiques, and handle issues related to Taiwan carefully and properly to avoid causing unnecessary interference to the overall China-U.S. relationship.”
Earlier Saturday, Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi labeled the phone call “a shenanigan by the Taiwan side” when he was asked about it on the sidelines of a foreign policy seminar.
“The ‘one China’ policy is the cornerstone of a healthy China-U.S. relationship. I hope this political foundation won’t be disrupted or damaged,” he said.
This is a game of chess that will be going on for a while. Something tells me I may have to open a category on this blog titled “China.”
“China warns Trump: Good luck bringing jobs back to U.S.”
http://money.cnn.com/2016/11/30/news/economy/china-donald-trump/index.html
The commentary ran in the “business opinion” section of the Global Times, a newspaper backed by the Communist Party.
“It will be almost impossible for the [U.S.] to restore its glory as a major manufacturing powerhouse under his presidency,” the piece says. The author is a reporter for the Global Times.
——
The next phase of US-China relations has begun.
Good for Trump. China is not an ally, not even a friendly competitor.
China doesn’t respect property rights, intellectual or real. We have willingly shipped proprietary technology to China for them to copy. They didn’t even have to employ spies to get the technology. We sent it to them.
The first principle of foreign relations and similar topics is this: we have to remember who we want to win the contest. Diplomacy is a preferable alternative to war, but it the interests of our nation – not any other foreign nation – which ought to be the goal of our policy makers. The folks in D.C. have lost sight of that fundamental idea, a long time before President Obama took office. He merely outlined that error with very bold strokes, thereby bringing it to our attention.
China’s communist regime will never be content with a permanent American position of superiority.
Should China’s regime ever achieve military parity with America, it will view it as a prelude to achieving superiority.
Ideologically, communism’s most basic premise is that capitalism is the primary obstacle to social justice and the perfectibility of mankind. No communist regime that achieves dominance can be content with allowing a fundamental obstruction to its Raison d’éªtre to continue to obstruct its primary ideological goal.
@Neo – your new category should be labelled with the phonetic “Jyna”
/j
It could produce something “good”, after all, nothing ventured, nothing gained.
But, consistent with how trump has campaigned, it could just as easily be that trump is looking to create an antagonist to use for his own political gamesmanship. It seems he thrives on epic political theater, with him (only him) as the lead protagonist.
IDK, but it may well be that “Jyna” is his Macguffin in his epic battle tale.
Perhaps too cynical a take, but, given his unpredictability and inconsistency, he hasn’t given us much to go on to assume positively either.
So, we are back to “hoping for the best”, and your words: “We’ll see”
I see we’ve moved from the failed flamed out crashed and burned beyond recognition #NeverTrump to #TrumpDead-Ender.
“The media is freaking out because Trump spoke to a democratically elected leader, and this might offend a dictatorship.
Let that sink in.” — Watson
If the president of Taiwan called me tomorrow, I would be breaking no protocol in taking the call. Trump really is no different in this case, and come January 20th, he will be the official who determines protocol for other Federal Government officials.
Yes, Neo, I think you will be opening a category called “China” as well as one called “Taiwan.”
Many of us with ties to the independent nation of the ROC on Taiwan have felt a sense of betrayal since the peanut farmer turned his back on Taiwan in a effort to shore up his failing Presidency by normalizing relations with The PRC – at Taiwan’s expense!
Carter, like Obama, just accepted whatever the “enemy” asked for. Carter could have gotten more concessions from China for normalizing relations – including allowing the US to have a “Two China” policy. But, Carter, and later like Obama, was/is a wimp.
So, put me in the “Kudos to Trump” for talking to the President of ROC. It is about time an American President called the shots against China and stood side-by-side with Taiwan; especially given how China’s recent actions in the South China Sea have all of SE Asia nervous.
I reluctantly voted for the guy; but, now he has me saying – Go Trump!
As somebody–probably me–said, the idea of messing with the USA should act like a big glass of Mexican tap water, only faster.
That way, nobody messes with us,nobody gets hurt.
Or, if somebody didn’t get the email, we’ll have the resources to end it real fast and not many–or us–get hurt.
That situation includes resources of the highest–nukes–and lowest–spare shoelaces for the grunts. It includes the perception of POTUS and his immediate circle. It includes the perception of the mood of the American public.
“Is the US going to hurt us when we do this, or ask for another while apologizing?”
There’s also Wretchard’s take on it, which is quite interesting
https://pjmedia.com/richardfernandez/2016/12/02/return-to-the-first-island-chain/
It’s a who’s your daddy moment and Trump is telling them he is.
For another opinion, see Scott Adams:
http://blog.dilbert.com/post/153990140846/trump-and-the-taiwan-call
We will see. China tested GWB with the forced landing of the electronic intelligence jet soon after Bush was sworn it, pre 9/11, who remembers that? The PRC lost one of their planes and pilots in that incident. How will Trump react if something similar occurs in the East China sea? It ain’t Twitter wars, folks, or lawyers or settlements out of court.
I’m not at all opposed to stalwart defense of the rights to international navigation and push back on Chinese claims to disputed territories and resources, but be careful what you wish for, or so I’ve heard.
Last I knew Trump was claiming Taiwan called him to congratulate him. If true, is it any wonder he took the call and bragged about it? Candidates also visit foreign leaders during the campaign to puff up their foreign policy profile.
It is amazing how djt lives in the collective heads of the left. He has a call by a foreign leader and the msm goes into a hissy fit. As far as creating a competent geopolitical strategy is concerned, we’ll see.
What I like about Trump is that he is not afraid of the media, of the establishment. So refreshing.
Uh oh, what happens if Trump meets with the Dalai Lama and then, gasp, let’s him leave by the front door, instead of hustling him out a back alley past the garbage cans?
There are limits of course, but I believe that it can be healthy for potential adversaries to have some doubts about the U.S.; assuming, of course, that we are always acting from a position of strength. Putin’s unpredictability has paid dividends.
‘China tested GWB with the forced landing of the electronic intelligence jet soon after Bush was sworn it, pre 9/11, who remembers that?’
I do. As someone with deep ties to China, I have been waiting since then for a president who would stand up to China. It must be done if we are to have lasting peace. Continually mollifying a bully only leads to more bullying.
As a side note of no real importance – it was not a jet but a turboprop. Yes, this is nitpicking but I served on one like it so this detail is/was important to me, along with more consequential ones.
Given my own experience, my expectation is that despite the destruction protocols executed while landing, Chiana probably reaped a tremendous intelligence bonanza.
I don’t know if this is smart and I don’t know how it will end, but it feels awfully good. Opening relations to China in the ’70s has been a mixed bag.
Ike Says:
December 3rd, 2016 at 12:40 pm
The first principle of foreign relations and similar topics is this: we have to remember who we want to win the contest.
* * *
We haven’t had an America-first foreign policy since Reagan’s: “We win, they lose.”
Vanderleun Says:
December 3rd, 2016 at 1:37 pm
“The media is freaking out because Trump spoke to a democratically elected leader, and this might offend a dictatorship.
Let that sink in.” – Watson
* * *
It did sink in; one of the reasons Trump won.
Esther Says:
December 3rd, 2016 at 6:10 pm
Uh oh, what happens if Trump meets with the Dalai Lama and then, gasp, let’s him leave by the front door, instead of hustling him out a back alley past the garbage cans?
* *
Or invites Bibi to actually join him for dinner.
The role of China in world affairs has been increasing for a very long time, and appetites of Chinese leadership were growing accordingly. Now they certainly achieved the threshold of claiming regional hegemony, and in internal politics of China a serious concentration of power happened recently. It can be expected that China now becoming a major geopolitical opponent of USA, like Soviet Union in Cold War era.
@Matt_SE – right. It could be a good move to shake up the status quo with China, particularly with their South China Sea “program” and claims. As mentioned “nothing ventured, nothing gained”.
The problem with trump is that one never really knows if this is just an ill considered blunder on his part, driven by his vanity (Oh, Taiwan’s President is calling to congratulate me!), or a brilliant and well thought out tactic on his part (as it is being spun by his handlers).
Either way, taking the call has major implications.
Be they good or bad remains to be seen with how trump (would add his admin, but not sure how much they will be involved and listened to) and China behave and respond to each other down the road.
OriginalFrank;
My memory got some of the details but not all. If I was a curmudgeon I could argue that a turboprop is a gas turbine engine and that’s what I meant, but that would be BS. I don’t know it all yet, that’s what the internet is for? (jk)
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hainan_Island_incident
It was an EP3, signals intelligence version of the Lockheed P3 Orion turboprop. The P3 has only recently been replaced by a turbofan based on a Boeing 737. The P8 Poseidon.
Everybody who believes that Trump does not know what he is doing is a fool. Trump is a strategic thinker even when he speaks nonsense, because he does it deliberately and with a purpose. So my choice is He’s masterfully letting China know that it’s not business as usual and that he’s going to be in charge.
The big question is . . . is Trump willing to draw a line in the sand and be ready to hit back militarily?
The US still has military superiority and there’s nothing like an overwhelming response to let others know where you stand.
Trump doesn’t play for a stalemate. My question though – how will the American public react? Most likely just like the election.
Sergey:
Sounds like the new game will be “Is Trump a fool, or just pretending to be one” like the Obama game “Is he a fool or a knave?”
@OM – by now you should know you are responding to Sergeyblert – where all are meat puppets and trump is a master persuader. The “tell” is the use of the word “masterfully”.
/j /s
We have no basis to actually know if trump really is some deep master at strategic thinking, and that all his public foolishness is some clever theatrical ruse.
trump is certainly more complicated than being completely in one bucket or the other.
Trump’s favorite game is trolling liberals with Twitter, and he certainly is grandmaster in it. His twitts are spreading by net like forest fire, which in itself is a measure of success.
Sergey:
“Twitts” is probably not the word you wanted. Twit – a silly foolish person. So maybe his twits are spreading through the internet in a conflagration. 🙂
The apoplexy of the Left makes this all worthwhile.
http://manningthewall.com
https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCUDY17Xg_Ix5kaenkryh63g
https://twitter.com/manningthewall
But there’s a point at which the unpredictable segues into the loose cannon, and that’s part of the danger as well as the advantage.
yeah, when the judgemental and ignorant decide it does, but thats it.. its an outside judgement of an inside action without any understanding..
so when the geniuses dont get it, then its a loose cannon…
ie. when the unpredictable are actually unpredictable the smart get scared as they cant fathom the reason or outcome, and if they cant, no one can, not even the person doing it..
worked so great as to the election and winning..
and yet, all the brains didnt get it
ie. stand in judgment and you may find someone else is a loose cannon as a way to asuage your own lack of ability… and put it off to another.
if i cant understand it, it must be crazy is the judgments of those who call things loose cannon.
unless outside judgment has inside knowlege or can see the unpredictable as predictable their way of getting someone else shamed into it is to call them a loose cannon.
its akin to, please tone back your strategy till your predictable enough that i can see it and feel better. cause my feeling better is more important than your success..
note that the dodo was uterly predictable..
predictability in life is death…
the predictable die as victims of the predators
Trump should tell the Chicoms he’ll stop talking to Taiwan on the phone if they’ll control that nutjob in North Korea.
Listen, the Chicoms will not start a war over a phone call. They are mature, responsible leaders. But this fact is hard for Dems to understand, having not so much experience with maturity.
Something that has impressed me, of late, about Trump is his mastery of getting significant results with minimal effort.
We saw this when he finally got Obama to release (sort of) his birth certificate. Many had tried; some had spent millions of dollars, or risked going to prison, all to no avail. Trump got it done with a press conference.
We saw it during the 2016 election season. He got much more press than any of his fellow Republican candidates, and he got it for free.
And we’re seeing it now. Trump is showing China — and Obama! — that he’ll be calling the shots from now on. And he did it by accepting a phone call.
We are, indeed, living in Interesting Times.
Shortened art:
We’re all still gonna die, how unpredictable.
It seems to me that those pronouncing & speculating on this, which after all was a mere symbolic phone call, reveal more about themselves and their political filters than anything else.
I’ve never figured out what we got out of the “one-China” policy and the lock-out of Taiwan. Certainly, we did not get good behavior from the Chinese, nor great access for American products — ask people who’ve tried to sell American products in China. Other than Buicks (for reasons that escape me), it’s very, very difficult, takes years, and requires extensive bribery of local and party officials. Is getting hand towels half-off really that important?
Richard Saunders: “we” didn’t get anything out of the one china policy and lock out of Taiwan – that was Carter’s doing in trying to rescue his failed presidency.
Just like Obama was doing with Iran’s deal and Cuba’s – thinking that some how or other he was making history. (He was making history. Just not the grandiose kind he thinks he made)
Reagan didn’t seem to care about history – he cared about what was going to be the right or good thing to do.
I’m sort of having hope that Trump is going to be like Reagan in that regards. But, if he doesn’t turn out that way – oh well. At least we know what Hillary would have been like!
I love what Trump did here. China is still run by commies and Taiwan is a democracy so we *should* be favoring Taiwan.
China is now entering in a long, but inevitable decline, like Japan before it. This happens with every export-oriented country which run out of the ways to expand her share of the world market, reaching the point of saturation and now needed to switch to internal market for further growth. But domestic consumption is restricted by low purchasing power of a rather poor population and a low birth rate. There is no private banking industry in China, all credit policy is under state control, which complicated the situation. A major liberalization of economy is needed, but the leadership clings to its authoritarian power and is hardly capable to change the course in a reasonable fear of destabilization of political system, like happened in Soviet Union.
And here is the explanation of the new USA policy in relation to Chaina:
washingtonpost.com/opinions/trumps-taiwan-call-wasnt-a-blunder-it-was-brilliant/2016/12/05/d101