Irma
There’s no question that Irma is a big, big, big, big storm. It’s already caused a great deal of damage in the Caribbean, and it’s set to do more in Florida and elsewhere in the States.
It seems to me that the press salivates at events such as this. “If it bleeds, it leads,” and Irma bleeds. It also gives the MSM a chance to hammer home its direst AGW message.
I’ve already written on that last issue in connection with Harvey. My view can be summarized as weather is weather and climate is climate and most analysts filter their point of view through a political agenda. I have no use for that sort of ubiquitous filtering, and therefore I tend to gravitate to the writings of noted climatologist Judith Curry, whose only agenda—as far as I can see—is an attempt to find the truth without preconceptions.
That is a rare thing these days, even among scientists and particularly among those who write about science for the general population. I’m pretty scientifically-minded, but I don’t have the specific climatology chops to evaluate the truth or falsehood of the vast amount of scientific data and opinion out there. I have come to trust Curry, though, who seems especially even-handed, logical, careful, courageous, and open to going wherever the truth may lead her.
Here’s Curry on Irma.
[NOTE: This is from Curry’s Wiki entry:
Judith A. Curry is an American climatologist and former chair of the School of Earth and Atmospheric Sciences at the Georgia Institute of Technology. Her research interests include hurricanes, remote sensing, atmospheric modeling, polar climates, air-sea interactions, and the use of unmanned aerial vehicles for atmospheric research. She is a member of the National Research Council’s Climate Research Committee. As of 2017, she has retired from academia.
Curry is the co-author of Thermodynamics of Atmospheres and Oceans (1999), and co-editor of Encyclopedia of Atmospheric Sciences (2002), as well as over 140 scientific papers. Among her awards is the Henry G. Houghton Research Award from the American Meteorological Society in 1992.
Regarding climate change, she thinks that the IPCC reports typically neglect what she calls the “Uncertainty Monster” in projecting future climate trends, which she calls a “wicked problem.” Curry also hosts a popular science blog in which she writes on topics related to climate science and the science-policy interface…
Judith Curry has argued that climatologists should be more accommodating of those skeptical of the scientific consensus on climate change. Curry has stated she is troubled by what she calls the “tribal nature” of parts of the climate-science community, and what she sees as stonewalling over the release of data and its analysis for independent review.]
Neo,
The problem as I see it is that the well has already been tainted. We know of East Anglia University’s manipulation of data to hide the delcine,; we know that Michael Mann’s hocky stick chart relies on very few samples (one, if memory serves me correctly); and we know of temprature readings being discriminately chosen from samles representing higher urban tempratures than true averages.
I applaud Prof. Curry for taking a stand on principle; it would be good to have some reliable unbiased views ont his. I fear, however, that because of this tainted well, Prof. Curry has the same uphill fight that legitimate massage therapists have vis-a-vis prostitution.
Hide the Decline:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Thgtezzod7k
All that AGW BS is based on climate models, IE computer programs. Do you remember the hole in the ozone? Freon was banned by the Montreal protocols 30 years ago based on computer models. So, what happened to the hole in the ozone? You never hear about it anymore. Did it go away? Well, the hole in the ozone just ignored the computer models and did whatever it wanted. It didn’t go away and a hole in the ozone even opened up in the northern hemisphere. That wasn’t supposed to happen. It looks like the hole in the ozone is a natural phenomena that we have no control over.
It seems with the complete media saturation combined with ridiculous hysteria brought on by social media that every event going forward is going to be portrayed as the ‘biggest’, ‘greatest’, ‘worst’ whatever of all time. It really gets tiring and I’ll admit it is causing me to become more and more cynical about many things.
All that being said I hope that all come through this storm as close to intact as possible.
Judith Curry is my hero because she personifies moral courage. We need a million more like her in all fields.
But, but, but, the noted and renowned scientist, Jennifer Lawrence, just said that Harvey and Irma happened because Nature is mad at the US for electing Trump.
She’s a talented actress, but obviously dumb as rocks regarding anything else.
Heart is heavy for my native state, and the many relatives and friends who are facing a situation that may prove apocalyptic.
Ramirez had a great cartoon post-Harvey in which two protestors, standing waist deep in water, were trying to remember what they were protesting.
So much can become irrelevant so quickly. Right now I don’t care what the moonbats say.
All of the news has focused on people trying to escape by driving or flying out. But since this is Florida, you also have to think about what will happen to the many boats and other vessels there, not to mention the structure of the marinas themselves.
This is a very bad situation for a boat owner. Some would have had the time and opportunity to navigate their vessels to safe harbor. Others will have to choose between losing their boat or losing their home. Expect to see a lot of wreckage all along the shore, and other flotsam carried a good deal inland.
In talking with a reinsurance guy I figured out why Corporate America loves the CAGW scam. If global warming is scientific fact, one can charge higher premiums until 2100 in order to account for all the horrible damages that will hit America. And you won’t get a refund when the damages never happen.
Same deal with electric vehicles.
The thing we on the right never get about the Left is that it is ALWAYS about money for them but they are masters of hiding that fact. CAGW was always about money.
I thought The Almighty was punishing Florida ( and Texas ) because of ( insert reason here ).
Irma is Trump’s fault!
One additional article about climate change subject: right now climate change is about hurricanes. But last year it was about Arctic Ice… what happened with the Arctic Ice? did it finally melt down? Why nobody is talking about it?
Well, since September 2016, it has been growing fast, and the extent corresponding in May 2017 was the biggest one (for that month of the year) in the last 5 years.
https://notalotofpeopleknowthat.wordpress.com/2017/06/05/arctic-sea-ice-update-may-2017/
Don’t expect to hear about Arctic Ice sometime soon…
Overnight, Irma went from a West-Northwest track to a West track and computer models of the projected path show little change.
Irma is traveling West through Cuba and is showing no indication of taking a right turn up to Florida but you wouldn’t know it from the media. Until and unless it does radically change direction, Irma is NOT a threat to the U.S.
The hyperbole has been and is still at a stratospheric level. It’s very hard to get accurate info. Best look at reality I’ve found is at: http://www.livewxradar.com/
I say this while residing about 10 miles inland on the central east coast region in Florida. No winds, a light drizzle here… if it gets worse, we’re prepared for it. Not our first ‘rodeo’.
Geoffrey,
I lived in Melbourne, FL, when I worked on the AF missile range. I was in old Melbourne which is about 30 feet above sea level so we didn’t have to worry about storm surge. If the water got that high, it was going all the way to Orlando and there was no safe place. There used to be little construction along A1A but now there are condos all down A1A. Friend of mine that lives in Melbourne tells me all those condos make excellent wind breaks during hurricanes. LOL.
I was a Florida kid during Hurricane Donna in 1960. We spent the night playing cards and telling stories while sitting under the kitchen table. As I recall, I was also reading Mad magazine.
Around midnight the eye came right over our town. Mom let us go out and look around very briefly. The stillness was eerie. Then we scurried back inside.
In the morning we went outside and saw over the half the tall trees had been knocked down. A 50-ft pine tree in our neighbor’s yard had fractured at the 15-ft mark and crashed down on our roof.
Hurricane Donna traveled all the way up the East coast and lapsed into a mere tropical storm in Maine.
A dozen or so people died in Florida and there was much property damage, but Florida wasn’t nearly as crowded then.
huxley:
I remember Donna very well. It came to NY.
This is the first storm I ever remember hearing about. I was very very young, but I remember it because I had an Aunt Hazel.