Prediction about the 2018 election
No, I’m not predicting what the results will be.
I’m predicting what the Democratic tactic will be. Let’s call it the Lamb Approach.
Here’s how I imagine it will go. In vulnerable Republican-held districts, find a pleasant, articulate Democrat who’s willing to espouse somewhat conservative principles and to say that he or she will stick to them if elected.
Make sure that Conor Lamb follows through on his conservative-leaning promises, right up till Election Day in 2018. After all, in terms of consequences it doesn’t matter how he votes till then, because the Republicans are in control right now and will be able to pass legislation in the House whether he votes with them or against them.
During the 2018 campaigns for these contested seats, point to Lamb as an example of what the newly-independent Democrats will do once in office. Secure a majority in the House for the next Congress, which shouldn’t be too difficult (the Senate is a lot harder—this year, anyway). Once that House majority is sworn in, follow the usual playbook of marching in lockstep as a Democratic group.
Many people have indicated they think that if the Democrats get a majority they will impeach Donald Trump. Since it only takes a simple majority, that is definitely a possibility. But they will face some difficulty in convicting him, just as occurred with the impeachment of Bill Clinton. It takes a whole lot of senators to convict a president: 2/3 (that’s 67), and unless one party has that number, it requires a fair number of crossover votes.
When President Nixon was forced to resign, the Democrats controlled the House and Senate by a large margin (see this). But they still lacked the requisite 67 votes in the Senate and needed help from Republicans, help that was ultimately provided.
This was the situation during July of 1974:
Republican leaders in Congress were also estimating vote counts: during a July 29 private meeting between House Minority Leader John Rhodes and Senate Minority Leader Hugh Scott, Rhodes estimated that impeachment in the House would get as many as 300 votes, well more than the majority of 218 it needed, and Scott felt that there were 60 votes for conviction in the Senate, a little short of the two-thirds of 100 it needed. Both felt that the situation was deteriorating for the president.
What changed? In August, as a result of a SCOTUS decision, Nixon was forced to release what became known as the “smoking gun” tape, which established his complicity in some of the Watergate aftermath, and as a result it became clear that Nixon had lost the support of most Republicans as well:
During the late afternoon of August 7, 1974, Senators Goldwater and Scott and Representative Rhodes met with Nixon in the Oval Office and told him that his support in Congress had all but disappeared. Rhodes told Nixon that he would face certain impeachment when the articles came up for vote in the full House. Goldwater and Scott told the president that there were not only enough votes in the Senate to convict him, but that no more than 15 or so Senators were willing to vote for acquittal ”“ far fewer than the 34 he needed to avoid removal from office. They did not pressure Nixon to resign, but simply made the realities of the situation clear. Goldwater later wrote that as a result of the meeting, Nixon “knew beyond any doubt that one way or another his presidency was finished.”
His resignation followed on August 9.
What was on that all-important “smoking gun” tape? This:
In that tape, Nixon agrees that administration officials should approach Richard Helms, Director of the CIA, and Vernon A. Walters, Deputy Director, and ask them to request L. Patrick Gray, Acting Director of the FBI, to halt the Bureau’s investigation into the Watergate break-in on the grounds that it was a national security matter. The special prosecutor felt that Nixon, in so agreeing, had entered into a criminal conspiracy whose goal was the obstruction of justice.
There is no question in my mind that it is the current hope of Democrats (and probably some Republican Never-Trumpers) to have a repeat of this scenario or something very much like it. The leading possibility in their minds at the moment is that Mueller makes a case that Trump obstructed justice, the Republicans turn on him, and he’s out.
I’m not saying that all or any of this will actually happen. I just think it’s the general plan and/or hope of Democrats, and that it is not completely far-fetched. I also wonder whether anyone in Conor Lamb’s district who voted for Trump in 2016 and still supports him, and yet voted for Lamb last Tuesday, understands that such a vote helps to lay the foundation for Trump’s removal.
Nixon’s resignation had many repercussions, but one of them was that the overwhelming Democratic dominance of Congress—which had begun in the 1960s—went on for twenty more years (with the exception of a small Republican Senate majority during some of Reagan’s tenure). We also got President Ford (the only president who had never won a national election, even as VP) and the Carter administration.
[NOTE: Sorry to sound so gloomy.]
Sigh, such a cynical scenario that I fear is very likely to come true. I really despise all this stuff. It is not productive in the sense that it does nothing to help and improve society. They reveal themselves to be such small and small-minded people.
False-Front Dems Ahead!
Mueller’s raison d’éªtre at this point is not to interfere with the effective running of the Executive, but to bring down the DJIA just in time for the November elections, thereby assuring a House overrun by the Socialist-Progressives (masquerading as the Democratic party).
It might also be a wise idea to place an Army guard on the cemeteries (to prevent the dead from rising and marching to the polling places – oops! sorry, ineffectual. They can now vote by mail; even from Mexico.)
Nixon (and Kissinger) negotiated a reasonable exit from Vietnam which the new Democratic congress threw away. He was paranoid enough to let some real low lifes be on his White House team and let them orchestrate a Keystone cops action in Watergate. It not only provided an actual illegal action, but reinforced the public opinion of Nixon as an unlikeable, shady politician. His real skills at negotiation and foreign policy were lost in the uproar.
Trump shares a lot of these faults, plus he lacks political negotiating skills. Conducting personal and public feuds with Mayor Koch and the Prime Minister of the UK Cameron are not ways to defuse attacks from the other side.
It will take a solid and continuing record of legislative accomplishments to win the public over. Trump is following Obama’s path now of looking for anything he can do by executive signing authority alone. A huge mistake.
so basically lamb is not a sheep but a horse, a trojan horse
Well that may be if nothing happens..
but, nothing is certainly what wont happen
even now, we are finding out about clapper and deep state and people are getting more and more confident about things… i even have liberals coming to me in secret as if i am a trumper… to confess their secret love..
its not going to go that way for one reason..
what was the economics of nixon compared to today
and what did the people go to, to get to this point?
even chavez knew you could enslave them as long as you gave them cookies.. by then you would have the walls up for the hogs to be comfortable..
i am not saying that to say that is what Trump is doing, its definitely not, but the principal remains anyway.
ever wonder what some women have said about the mean and murderous husbands they had or mobsters that were famous?
more than one said (paraphrasing), yeah he is a devil but he is MY devil and he fights for ME… if people are doing well, making money, making their bills, traveling and all that good makes manipulated kids and protests over every tiny thing to ridiculous ends… obnoxious.
and the ONE thing that neo is not and never ever adds to the assesment.. the demographic changes.. we have a rising annoyed and abused young that are more conservative than the middle.. the middle is destroyed, didnt have enough babies, and as of now, there are more old people than young..
will the boomers take the last serving and leave the posterity a big turd? maybe..
‘First Time in Human History’: People 65 and Older Will Outnumber Children Under 5
and
The ‘crossing’ will see old people to outnumber children for the first time before 2020
BEFORE the end of the decade, the world will experience an unprecedented “crossing” event that will forever change our societies.
i told you, the feminist ladies who are mostly white pushed their own self extermination… they are collapsing world wide. as our version pushed the harmfuyl things the russian version made illegal as they had total power to dicatate that.
but note
this still wont get the ladies to admit that instead of makeing a better world for everyone and their kids, they just self exterminated, destroyed the intelligence reserve int he population (we used to know that), and replaced themselves with imports as we are all the same.. right? so her kids are not anyu more important than the replacements..
Mohammed Shafiq from the Ramadhan Foundation said the debate needed putting in context. “Amongst these criminals there is a mindset that they think that white girls are worthless,” he said.
“They don’t have any regard for their standing within society and therefore they think they can be used and abused in that way.
“But the vast majority of child sex abuse carried out in this country is carried out by white men – through the home, through family networks and through the internet.”
see? worthless.. trash.. do what you want..
why? cause no one cares what you do, they are liberated
ther are even videos now by women upset about what is going on.. but they have yet to compare that to the description of a matriarchy and its matching it exactly.
so i am not sure if the election will go that way
it may be it didnt go that way this time for the start of this demographic change, that makes people panic and reverse their course.
remember, if your young and you dont like communism you dont have a heart.
the push was to infantalize eveyrone to prevent the other side.
if your old and you like communism, you have no brain.
funny funny
soooo, the last breath may be to do what?
you aint seen nothig yet..
I am afraid that there would be enough Never Trump “Republican” senators that would vote to convict. Even if no conviction, the Dems would stop cold any thing Trump might try to accomplish. Everything.
Honestly, I don’t think a lot of candidates like Lamb are going to make it through the Democratic primaries. I think I mentioned a few weeks ago how the Democratic primaries are overcrowded in California. State Democrats are worried their vote will be so split that 2 Republicans will make it into the general.
We should certainly worry. We will lose seats. And if the Democrats are in a position to impeach, they will.
But I have to confess, your Trojan Lamb reminds me of how I felt about Trump during the primaries. I thought he was a liberal pulling the wool over our eyes, that he’d betray us as soon as he was in office, making deals with the Democrats. He didn’t. Why? Because he wants to be reelected.
Same for any Democrat that runs as a Trojan Lamb. They’re not kamikazes. They’re not signing up for a suicide mission.
As to the Senate, I think it’s fairly simple. If the charge looks like it’s the result of a fishing expedition, which it would be, we just tell our senators we don’t consider it legitimate. Vote to convict at your peril. If enough of us take such a position, Never Trumpers will think twice.
In February I took a break from the enervating Florida sunshine and went back home to Pennsylvania for a couple weeks, long enough (I live in his district) to watch Lamb operate (campaign). I have a very uneasy feeling about him and believe he will go native — that is, lefty democrat — as soon as he can. He is very appealing in some ways, but he is canny, calculating and a stone Democrat. Gosh, I hope I’m wrong.
“The 8—0 ruling (Justice William Rehnquist disqualified himself owing to having worked for Attorney General John Mitchell)[34] in United States v. Nixon found that President Nixon was wrong in arguing that courts are compelled to honor, without question, any presidential claim of executive privilege.[34]
In late July 1974, the White House released the subpoenaed tapes. One of those tapes was the so-called “smoking gun”[35] tape, from June 23, 1972, six days after the Watergate break-in.”
Now, if Nixon had just had a crystal ball (to know it could be done) and a compliant DOJ/FBI (who were fine with him doing it), he could have erased those tapes despite the subpoena (“What? With a magnet?”) and been just fine.
dexiansheng:
The problem is that most moderate Democrats who run as moderates, or even sort-of-conservatives, end up caving to the Democrats every single time it matters, and the voters forgive them. So the precedent is that you can do that and survive.
Actually, oftentimes the voters don’t forgive them, or even get the chance. The sleeper liberals often find that after casting that “tough” vote they need to spend more time with their families.
1. While polls vary, 40% of Americans identify as Conservative, 36% as Moderates, and 22% as Liberals.
2. President Trump will continue to accomplish those things that improve the lives of most working Americans.
3. IG Horowitz’s report will put the nails in the coffin of Mueller’s fairy-tail conllusion prosecution, and it will establish beyond doubt the felonious actions of Mrs Clinton and the criminal coverup thereof.
4. Liberals will keep moving to the radical left.
Then, if President Trump solves the problem of North Korea’s nuclear armaments, he will have long coat tails which Republicans will ride.
mkent:
I’m not saying they’re always forgiven. Sometimes they leave office or are defeated. But they are often forgiven and re-elected at least once despite their promise-breaking.
Often enough to do damage.
Trump may be the only one to guide our economy through the next level of technological change. Our elders in Education and Politics can’t truly speak to the younger generation. Who want’s to go back? The future is full of new ways to solve our problems – though not for the timid. The tools that sought to bring the Trump Presidency down are a warning.
Why would the Democrats want a Pence administration?
Impeaching Trump doesn’t put a Democrat in the White House. It would put an actual conservative in instead.
And when voters found that the sky didn’t fall in with a conservative President, they might continue to vote for one. Pence would look stately after Trump (actually, almost anyone would, but Pence is the man that would get the gig). Presidential even.
I would bet decent money that a successful impeachment of Trump would have a monstrous backlash against the Democrats.
Big difference with Trump as opposed to Nixon is the underlying crime. For Trump and associates there was none. There was no “collusion” with Russia.
Mueller’s fishing expeditions will eventually get thrown out in court. Why? Because the special counsel order is effectively a bill of attainder, as is obvious from how the special counsel has been operating.
Your scenario is in the realm of “possible” rather than “probable,” at least for the moment, and insofar as an impeachment conviction is concerned. Should it come to pass it will be viewed by historians as a major stepping stone to the civil war that gets waged to reclaim the country.
A large percentage of the (legal) population used Constitutional – and peaceful – means to reclaim their country; should the political Powers That Be demonstrate unequivocally that peaceful means of changing government are not permitted to work, the alternatives remaining are succession or revolution, which may, in fact, come simultaneously. I doubt it will be in my lifetime, but unless things change substantially, it will come.
I think Neo’s scenario is definitely possible and agree with arfldgrs that if nothing happens that scenario is likely and also agree with Gary that Mueller’s job is to bring what ever he has got in time for the midterms. So I think a lot depends what Trump and his people have. I think Nunes has something and that the IG has something. Perhaps it comes down to As I’ve said before he supported Trump early before most people thought he had a chance, so I think he well may give the Dems an October surprise they wont ever forget. He certainly is in a better position than Mueller to do it, if can operate within the DOJ and build a case against what looks to me like a really bad example of swamp critters conspiring to overthrow the duly ‘lected gumment. At a larger scale I think the culture is turning against the Marxist left. As Andrew Breitbart said politics is downstream of culture and in that connection Jordan Peterson is more important than Donald Trump. The Marxists are running the education system, the media and the entertainment industry and the Democratic party but they are fragile for the simple reason their ideology is preposterous and wrong. They will collapse like the Soviet Union or CeauÈ™escu. 500 people lined up in Melbourne this week to have Jordan Peterson sign his book and to tell him how he had turned their lives around. If you want to understand exactly how the SJW mentality can change watch Lindsay Sheppard’s recent interview by Mark Steyn. She is a sharp reminder that women can be far more ruthless than men when someone messes with them. And what the Marxists are in for. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AUMkRa6lBAQ
I’m 260 pages through Peterson’s 12 Rules book and will hand it along to my two conservative young adult children. Peterson is a wonderful teacher, but the deck is so stacked against clarity and sanity nowadays that I’m not sure which way this thing is going to break. Will leftism collapse from its internal illogic and evil (Lorenz Gude above) or will too many basically good people continue to pay too little attention to the insidious erosion of culture and morals? The left is really feeling their oats right now and they are letting the mask slip from their demonic faces.
I trade the futures markets for a living and right now the political markets seem to be locked in a tug-of-war. It is the kind of situation where professionally I would step aside and sit on my hands. Leftism has ripped upwards for fifty years. The big question: are we now just consolidating, waiting for a break out to the upside? Or, is the demand waning and are we rolling over? I have no clue and neither does anybody else. There are too many countervailing signals.
Prayers are called for.
It seems to me that Packs ought not to panic over PA-18. The Dems ran a charismatic, Marine vet, conservative sounding candidate against a dull, inept Pack candidate and won by the narrowest margin. If the GOP can get its act together (I know, a very large assumption) they ought to be able to defend their control of Congress. How many Dem candidates will be like Lamb? With an upturned economy, manufacturing coming back, jobs available (already many go unfilled) will voters really elect a mob of socialists? How many pretend conservative Dems will wander off-message, especially when they think the mic’s off or they are talking in confidence then, whoops, the mic was on or somebody leaked their “deplorables” comments? Stiff upper lip, guys.
In that tape, Nixon agrees that administration officials should approach Richard Helms, Director of the CIA, and Vernon A. Walters, Deputy Director, and ask them to request L. Patrick Gray, Acting Director of the FBI, to halt the Bureau’s investigation into the Watergate break-in on the grounds that it was a national security matter. The special prosecutor felt that Nixon, in so agreeing, had entered into a criminal conspiracy whose goal was the obstruction of justice.
Since it was the FBI that setup the break in as per regular FBI doctrine and training, and it was the FBI that conducted the investigation, leaks to the media, and surveillance of Nixon, it all perfectly fits together.
Americans never had the intelligence or the wisdom to figure it out. That’s mostly because the nation’s patron goddess is Columbia, and not the Trinity Godhead which includes Holy Spirit *not exactly trinitarianism either*. Although one could argue the Holy Ghost is the feminine heavenly mother, but that’s a different issue.
The left is really feeling their oats right now and they are letting the mask slip from their demonic faces.
Demoncrats: rule for and by demons.
But I have to confess, your Trojan Lamb reminds me of how I felt about Trump during the primaries. I thought he was a liberal pulling the wool over our eyes, that he’d betray us as soon as he was in office, making deals with the Democrats. He didn’t. Why? Because he wants to be reelected.
Not everyone here was for or against Trum in the primaries/election.
Trum is a neophyte compared to the Deep State, as seen in how he didn’t fire certain people from Hussein and the DC bureaucracy. Even people here back in 2016, would have known better than to trust Democrats in DC.
“You’re Fired”, should have been used a little bit sooner and faster given Trum’s Apprentice meanderings.
But his supporters treated him like some kind of Hussein like messiah savior figure. It wouldn’t have mattered anyways.
In other news, every Demoncrat is a trojan horse by definition, but it is also because DC has ways to blackmail and leverage any Democrat.
I can’t seem to post on this blog right now. It’s very very disturbing.
In the meantime I’m putting this message on all my newer posts to alert people that for now I’ll be posting at the new site. So follow this link for further updates.
I sincerely hope this problem will be fixed soon, but I have no idea whether it will be possible. At any rate, the new blog is still operating very well (for now), and I can always post there. So for now, consider that the place to go to read my work.